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You realize that Flash's 3rd only has 6 mineral patches = 20 marines a minute.
You realize that there are 30 extra seconds that you did not see. Go find HQ vod, I think jon747 has it. It shows JD having a fully running 7:00 (both gas, 3 drones mining) and a 1:00). Flash had mined out main and nat had patches already disappearing.
Flash had about 10 marines at most, and had pulled out to defend his 9:00, which has 3 entrances.
So economic situation at blackout, (since you only saw stream vod which has a tape delay)... Flash mining 2 depleted gas, 6 mineral patches. JD mining 2 depleted gas, 3 full gas, ~20-25 mineral patches since his saturation was not amazing. At that rate, JD can make ultras faster then flash can kill them, never mind having swarm.
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Can't believe you're still discussing this hehe
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On February 02 2010 03:19 StylishVODs wrote:
Can't believe you're still discussing this hehe
gotta love rabid fanboys
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On February 02 2010 02:46 jblack wrote:
Thank you for your reply, snapcrackle however I would like to draw your attention to several misconceptions you were under.
1. Jaedong's 7 o'clock base had no more than 2 drones mining minerals the entire time.
2. A higher SCV saturation DOES mean you have more minerals coming in per base than your opponent. And Terran players, particularly Flash, can comfortably hold 1 or even 2 less bases than a Zerg and still amass a stronger army (there are countless VODs that demonstrate this). Not to mention that from 14min into the game to the very end Jaedong had to use the vast majority of his larva to reinforce his army, and couldn't really afford to invest in drone production. However, most importantly of all minerals isn't really the issue, because without Defilers and Ultras (heavy gas units) all the minerals in the world couldn't have saved Jaedong.
3. When counting Flash's units, as I said there were 13 marines and 8 medics outside of Jaedong's bottom left base. However, if you notice throughout the game approximately every 20 seconds if you look at the area on the minimap where Flash's front ramp there is a stream of reinforcing units due to all his Barracks having a rally point at his natural expansion. Seeing as he had about 12 Barracks, and I noticed one of those streams about 10 seconds before the power outage... I assume he had an additional 12 marines, with another 12 on the way within about 10 more seconds.
4. It doesn't make any sense at all that Jaedong would just have his units hanging out at his base by the Nydus Canal... because as we saw throughout the entire game Jaedong was very quick to reinforce with every unit that he produced... trying to get a surround on Flash's units. This is totally standard play, because any Zerg player will tell you that sending your army in piecemeal at a Terran MnM army is silly.
5. Flash was retreating to regroup his forces... if you watch the VOD and focus on the minimap at the last seconds there were units just about to leave his base... and true SK Terran, which is pulled of properly (Flash's bread and butter) doesn't require any tanks.
6. Jaedong has no map control whatsoever, so Flash could have expanded again easily and held it with minimal forces.
7. Jaedong was at 2 - 3 base the whole time... except for that last 2 minutes of the game. When Zerg is on 2 bases to Terran's 2 bases... Zerg is behind... and when Zerg is on 3 bases to Terran's 2 bases it is even... however as I mentioned 3 Zerg bases with minimal Drone saturation is still behind against 2 Terran bases at full saturation.
8. You argue that Flash's natural expo was about to be mined out within 4-5 minutes, but so was Jaedong's main.
Lol misconceptions.
1,2. Jaedong was making second gas at 7, which means he was going to be on 4-5 gas. Flash had two vessels with no energy and no tanks.
3. He just reinforced before the power out. There aren't 12 marines sitting in his nat. He also wont be pumping from 12 barracks when he was on 1 and a half base.
4. I am sure Jaedong made that nydus just for show. And clearly he can only make 1 ultra, 2 lings, and a defiler from 4 bases.
5. SK terran doesn't work with 2 no energy vessels against 5 gas full tech zerg.
6. That's why he made his third CC at his nat right? Because he had map control?
7. Go watch the game again.
8. That's cool now he can mine from 7.
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Holy god, it's been more than a week now, and nothing's going to change regardless of how long this is discussed for.
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I just want an excuse to watch the game again. 
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Firstly... Jaedong's 3rd gas at the 3 o'clock position isn't up and operational until 15min 40sec... so other than about 3.5 minutes of mining time on the top right base Jaedong has been on 2 gas to Flash's 2 gas. So in other words for roughly 12 minutes of the game Jaedong was economically behind.
His 4th gas at the 7 o'clock position didn't start mining until 16min 20sec... and JD pulled his drones off gas at 16min 35sec to help fend off Flash's army (which is either a huge mistake by JD, or more likely a testament to the fact that he's running low on reinforcing units)...
As for his supposed 5th gas the hatchery at the 1 o'clock position didn't even finish until 18min 33sec and no extractor had even been started... so thats at least another 40 seconds, from whenever it starts to build that the gas is up.
According to EvoChamber's top notch analysis...
Flash's] first refinery finished at 3:20, his second refinery at 7:40. Gas mines at 100 units every 20 seconds. This leaves Flash at the time of the blackout with 400 gas left in his main geyser and 1700 gas left at his natural geyser.
However, if you look at both sides of the coin...
[Jaedong's] first refinery finished at 3:40, his second refinery at 4:40. Gas mines at 100 units every 20 seconds. This leaves Jaedong at the time of the blackout with 500 gas left in his main geyser and 800 gas left in his natural geyser.
Therefore in just over 2.5 minutes Jaedong would be down 2 geysers. Moreover, it's important to note that Zerg Ultra/Ling + Defilers are more than twice as gas demanding as SK Terran.
By my count Flash killed 22 Ultralisks, 9 Mutalisks, 2 Defilers and about a control group or more of Scourge (albeit most of them died killing Science Vessels)... not factoring in the 2 Ultralisks that were at practically no health, and all the gas intensive upgrades... Jaedong had spent over 5000 gas... which is the equivalent of 20 minutes on 3 bases... however, for the first 3 minutes Jaedong was on zero gas... and other than the final few minutes... and another few minutes when his top right base was mining gas... Jaedong spent most of the roughly 20 minute game on 2 geysers. In other words, for about 12 minutes of game, Jaedong was behind. Not only that but, once you factor in all the upgrades (probably close to 1.5-2k gas) and the gas intensive units that were still alive (at least 3 Ultras, 2 defilers, and a bunch of scourge... i.e. ~1000 gas)... Jaedong was very very low on gas.
Furthermore, if you notice on the minimap in Flash's base where his ramp is... you will notice a steady stream of units rallying from his Barracks to his natural expansion every 20 seconds. Also you will notice that every 80 seconds you will see 2 Science Vessels rallying from his Starports, to his natural expansion. At 18min and 18seconds you will see that his Barracks produce approximately 12 units (based on the fact that Flash had 12 production Barracks at his main) that rally to his natural expo... and at 18min and 38seconds you will see the same thing... in this time if you look closely there are also 2 Science Vessels that are produced and head to the same rally point.
You can claim that Flash was retreating at the end, however... if you notice very closely at the final split seconds of the match, there are a group of units about to leave Flash's base. Therefore it is logical to assume that he was only backing off his force to regroup with the reinforcements before initiating the assault once again. Counting the 3 vessels, 13 marines and 8 medics that Flash had outside of JD's bottom left base... and the ~24 units and 2 Science Vessels he had at his natural expansion... it is easy to assume that 39 marines, 8 medics, and 5 science vessels (2 of which would have had enough energy to irradiate) could have beaten Jaedong's rag-tag army of 3 Ultras (2 of which were one foot in the grave), 6 zerglings, and 2 defilers... with 2 support sunkens.
Granted I am a big Jaedong fan and was cheering for him... and who knows, maybe he could have pulled it off... reinforced his small army with say 12 - 20 zerglings and gotten really lucky... or sacrificed his bottom left base to counter Flash's new expansion... but the fact of the matter is that not only is it pretty absurd to say that Jaedong had an 85% chance to win... it would be generous to give him 50/50.
With no map control and a very small standing army, Flash could and would have expanded very easily... and once the bottom left base fell Jaedong would have been behind yet again.
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close thread please? this is already set, can't change the past.
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On February 02 2010 03:42 Picture wrote:I just want an excuse to watch the game again.
You obviously didn't anyway because you said that Flash didn't have anything sitting in his natural when he did. -_-
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On February 01 2010 17:12 jblack wrote:
Let me start this off by saying I was cheering for Jaedong in the MSL finals, so nobody can accuse me of being a Flash fanboy... but even as a JD fan, that game 3 was complete crap.
I've heard a lot of people saying "yeah sure, Flash was behind but he could have come back... anything could have happened" ... I've even heard people say "Jaedong was way ahead he definitely won" ... and not just random people, but respected progamers have said that including NonY.
I did a detailed review of the VOD, to confirm that Jaedong won fair and square... and sadly the fact of the matter is Flash was ahead when the power went out. As I said I'm not basing that by any means on Flash fanboyism... I wanted JD to win. I actually spent about an hour and a half watching every aspect of the VOD and there is really no question about it... Flash won game 3.
I could be wrong... and I would appreciate it if a top level Zerg player, such as Day[9] could have a look at the VOD and correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think I am.
Idra, Ret, and some other TL members have all stated that Jaedong was significantly ahead, and frankly they are much more credible than you.
sorry if i dont believe that you're not a flash fanboy, reverse psychology fails
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Its unfair for both parties on a re-game.
best thing that could have been done was a re-game on a 50/50 map
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On February 02 2010 05:18 saltywet wrote:
Idra, Ret, and some other TL members have all stated that Jaedong was significantly ahead, and frankly they are much more credible than you.
sorry if i dont believe that you're not a flash fanboy, reverse psychology fails
If anything I would consider myself a Jaedong fanboy... and the reason this upsets me is because I think JD would have come out on top anyway, and it would have been very exciting... but the most hyped MSL final ever ended up very anti-climactic, and the last game was a disappointing joke.
As for what IdrA, Ret, NonY and others have said... I believe they made their comments based entirely on a first glance look at the game. From first glance it undoubtably seems like an easy victory from Jaedong, however I would be interested to see whether IdrA, Ret, NonY... or any other programer after thoroughly reviewing the VOD several times objectively would stand by their original remarks.
At any rate, thanks for your input nevertheless.
As for people calling for the thread to be closed on the grounds that you can't undo the past... I can't say that I understand that logic. Should History no longer be taught in school or discussed? After all it has already happened, and can't be undone. The bottom line is in a Starcraft discussion forum, people aught to be able to discuss Starcraft. I don't think back and forth bickering is productive, but intelligent replies that are both pro-Jaedong and pro-Flash, provided they are supported by VOD evidence are quite helpful and interesting.
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On February 02 2010 06:08 jblack wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2010 05:18 saltywet wrote:
Idra, Ret, and some other TL members have all stated that Jaedong was significantly ahead, and frankly they are much more credible than you.
sorry if i dont believe that you're not a flash fanboy, reverse psychology fails If anything I would consider myself a Jaedong fanboy... and the reason this upsets me is because I think JD would have come out on top anyway, and it would have been very exciting... but the most hyped MSL final ever ended up very anti-climactic, and the last game was a disappointing joke. As for what IdrA, Ret, NonY and others have said... I believe they made their comments based entirely on a first glance look at the game. From first glance it undoubtably seems like an easy victory from Jaedong, however I would be interested to see whether IdrA, Ret, NonY... or any other programer after thoroughly reviewing the VOD several times objectively would stand by their original remarks. At any rate, thanks for your input nevertheless. As for people calling for the thread to be closed on the grounds that you can't undo the past... I can't say that I understand that logic. Should History no longer be taught in school or discussed? After all it has already happened, and can't be undone. The bottom line is in a Starcraft discussion forum, people aught to be able to discuss Starcraft. I don't think back and forth bickering is productive, but intelligent replies that are both pro-Jaedong and pro-Flash, provided they are supported by VOD evidence are quite helpful and interesting.
There were like 10 different threads explaining in GREAT DETAIL why JD was ahead... go look them up. I doubt you spent an hour and a half analyzing the game... but if you did, well you must have missed some really important points or you must not really understand SC at all.
Here is a very brief summary of why Flash was losing. He had 1 mining base. Jaedong had 4 bases set up. 4 gas ultras+swarm>>>>>>>>>1 base SK terran no tanks with like 2 SVs. Basic SC knowledge and logic would indicate Flash was losing. Are you trolling me son?
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Holy, I wasn't going to bump this thread ever but since it's up near the top again anyway, might as well chip in -
I noticed that most of the on-going arguments concern matters of personal opinions if not from some personal experience, but let's face it, the game is over. It's great that you stand up for what you believe is right and for your favourite player, but when it's been done with and many of us are trying to forget what a disappointment (of a finals) it was, trying to fire up the discussion doesn't really help. Even Flash himself said in an interview (I think the translation was posted in TL recently) that it's done with, he prefers not to discuss it anymore, and now it's time to move on.
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On February 02 2010 06:35 lone_hydra wrote:
There were like 10 different threads explaining in GREAT DETAIL why JD was ahead... go look them up. I doubt you spent an hour and a half analyzing the game... but if you did, well you must have missed some really important points or you must not really understand SC at all.
Here is a very brief summary of why Flash was losing. He had 1 mining base. Jaedong had 4 bases set up. 4 gas ultras+swarm>>>>>>>>>1 base SK terran no tanks with like 2 SVs. Basic SC knowledge and logic would indicate Flash was losing. Are you trolling me son?
There were 10 different threads explaining in great detail why JD was ahead? I only noticed one that was in great detail. I actually spent closer to 2 and a half hours analyzing the game, and I don't believe I missed anything, but if you would like to point out a specific instance where my analysis which I posted above was flawed please do.
Here is a very brief summary of why your very brief summary neglects to take everything into account: Jaedong had his main, his first expo, and the 3 o'clock position "set up"... his 4th base had 3 drones on gas and 2 drones on minerals. Furthermore, his main and natural were both about to be mined out within 4 to 5 minutes at the most. Granted he could have transfered the drones from those bases to his bottom left expansion, and his new top right expansion and be alright... However, Flash was going to take out the bottom left expansion... his army had 5 SVs, and close to 30 marines with 8 or so medics, if you count the reinforcements he had in his main, which he was sending out of his base as the power went out. Jaedong was gas starved as the result of spending most of the game on 2 gas, and losing 22 Ultras (4400 worth of gas), and could only afford to reinforce with Zerglings and perhaps a few Ultras.
All the supposedly detailed summaries of the game were focused on all of the problems with Flash's situation, and no focus whatsoever on the potential problems with Jaedong's situation... simply put Zerg can't afford to lose 9 muta, 12 scourge, 2 defilers, and 22 Ultralisks when they spent 15 minutes of an approximately 19 minute game on 0-2 gas. I love Jaedong, and his defiler play is awesome... he could have massed a few control groups of zerglings and dominated Flash's army with superb micro... however the odds would have been against him. Talk of Jaedong's supposed economic lead is nonsense though... at least in terms of gas... which is all that matters in ZvT for Zerg.
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jblack is a troll. Better people than jblack have pointed out how even under most favorable assumptions for Flash and most unfavorable assumptions on JD's part, Flash still loses in two minutes.
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wow talk about looking trolling
it must be a troll since everyone has agreed on it
jaedong was far a head dont care how u count the ultra and muta and whatever
jaedong at the point of the power break was in a very big lead since flash had used all he had to build a force to stop jaedong /crush his expansion out of 2 bases.
jaedong managed to expand and having 5 bases of gas
flash has 2 /1.5 even if he takes the left he would be defenceless while jaedong hitting his 3rd and soon to be only minning expansion
flash gambled jaedong wouldnt hold the pressure ,jaedong did
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On February 02 2010 04:13 BanZu wrote:Show nested quote +On February 02 2010 03:42 Picture wrote:I just want an excuse to watch the game again. You obviously didn't anyway because you said that Flash didn't have anything sitting in his natural when he did. -_-
You obviously don't know how to read because I said he didn't have 12 marines.
Yea I lied. I just wanted to impress everyone because only cool people can watch the game. What a joke.
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Alright, this is getting silly... I brought up my observation from the VOD because I figured even if I was wrong people would respond with intelligent answers, making references to specific aspects of the game... other than a few interesting post, by and large people's responses have been juvenile and uninformed. "Everyone else already said Jaedong won, so he won" ... or "Jaedong had 5 bases to Flash's 1 base so JD won. Period."... or "Either you obviously didn't even watch the game or you know nothing about Starcraft"... grow up people.
If anyone has anything remotely intelligent to say on the matter whether its pro-Flash or pro-Jaedong, please PM me... if you just want to be dismissive and ignorant and accuse anyone who questions the KeSPA decision as being a Flash fanboy and bash them (despite the fact that in my case Jaedong is my favorite Korean progamer) then save your energy.
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You are the only intelligent one on this forum. Nobody else is. You have won the argument. All the 750 analyses posted on this board including every single member of the TL staff who agrees, including Idra (who just might know what he's talking about) are all wrong.
Or you could just look at this.
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EPT
