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On November 03 2008 04:44 DeepGreen wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2008 04:20 waterGHOSTCLAWdragon wrote:
As freelander pointed out, you actually don't care how much every probe costs, but you care about the difference in mining time; Aka how much is your opponent getting ahead with each probe he kills. If you kill the same amount of probes that he kills, your life is much better. Yeah, I'm curious to see just how close 1 probe kill early on comes to being worth the cost of a zealot.
you would have to calculate the cost of a probe in terms of "peon time" or the amount of time each probe mines average in the time it takes to build a worker. every time a worker pops youve lost that many minerals untill satuturation, at which point the average amount of minerals mined per worker goes down about 20% each worker you make. obviosly if you lose 20 probes to a storm your way the hell behind, but early game when every unit counts it is harder to decide when your behind.
try this:
loss = rN + 0.5gN(N+1)
= N(r+0.5g) + 0.5gN2
Where:
N = number of workers killed
r = cost of replacing each worker
g = minerals a worker can gather in the time it takes to build a worker
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On November 03 2008 04:17 hiroxx wrote:
honestly - who cares?
honestly, why the fuck are you posting here.
honestly, there are the ten commandments of tl.net what you should read once before you start posting.
honestly, there are at least 10 people in this topic who posted actual thoughts, opposed to you.
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This question can only be answered (more or less correct) in specific situations, but not in general.
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16987 Posts
On November 03 2008 05:26 gm.tOSS wrote:
This question can only be answered (more or less correct) in specific situations, but not in general.
This question can be solved in general solutions.
All you need is the marginal utility in terms of minerals/minute of having an extra probe at various points (e.g., how much more useful is the fifth probe when you have four, how much more useful is the ninth probe when you have eight, etc., in terms of minerals/minute). You could set up a function for both sides that tells you how many minerals/minute you're losing, then take the difference of the functions and integrate them. It's an easy concept, but very difficult to apply in practice if you take into account, for example, having eight probes target the zealot, etc. The models start getting very complex, and honestly, at this point it's probably easier to just use intuition.
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in terms of early game i think it's pretty significant. when you have about 15 probes, at each minute, an extra probe gives you about 50ish min. the difference becomes cumulative, because early game you'll always have 1 less probe than your opponent.
say X is the number of probes you have, min(X) is the rate of minerals, T is the time it takes to make a probe, and X >= 15 (you lose your 15th probe). the overall loss is then T*min(15) + T*min(16) + T*min(17) + ... = T*(min(15)+min(16)+...) = loss. min(X) is a decreasing function, but this quantity is going to be more than 100, which is the amount your opponent needs to spend to make up for a lost zealot.
yeah there's other factors (some minor and probably negligible), like your opponent having 1 less zel, you have 1 more supply, etc but in terms of minerals sacrificing a zealot for a probe is probably worth it.
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1zealot for 1probe early game is worth it for the probe.
1zealot for 2probes, well, you know, its common sense, the loss of the probe is at a disadvantage.
2zealot for 2 probes you are still ahead as you(same BO for instance) have two more zealots vs his.
2zealot for 3 probes, you are evened out.
3 zealot for 3 probes, still even.
3 zealot for 4 probes, well, start microing. after you lose 5+ probes to any # of zealots, imo, youre losing the eco-game slowly and slowly and with that, when he is able to reproduce troop count much faster than you, you must have to play catch-up in terms of probes AND army size.
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uhm you don't need to calculate anything
Make a game, mine for 5 mins, record the minerals. Say it's (X) mineral.
Make another game where you spawn at the same location, mine for 5 mins but take out a probe at around 12 food, record the minerals at 5-mins mark, say it's (Y)
X - Y = cost of a loss probe
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I seriously see where I should be posting all my calculus questions O_O TL.NET ftw.
But on average and just one and having 15 one base? The time your put behind due to his succesfull harass killing one probe is not many seconds. If you get his harrassunit, then your ontop again granted you got the micromakro for the early game down tight. The other option here is to try strengthning your position by advancing your line.
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On November 03 2008 07:11 Elvin_vn wrote:
uhm you don't need to calculate anything
Make a game, mine for 5 mins, record the minerals. Say it's (X) mineral.
Make another game where you spawn at the same location, mine for 5 mins but take out a probe at around 12 food, record the minerals at 5-mins mark, say it's (Y)
X - Y = cost of a loss probe
yes you do
after the five minute mark your opponent will still have 1 more probe than you. if all you and your opponent do is build probes, he'll always have 1 more than you. the difference later on becomes negligible because of saturation, but it makes the cost more than just "X-Y"
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United States17042 Posts
On November 03 2008 07:58 mjh wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2008 07:11 Elvin_vn wrote:
uhm you don't need to calculate anything
Make a game, mine for 5 mins, record the minerals. Say it's (X) mineral.
Make another game where you spawn at the same location, mine for 5 mins but take out a probe at around 12 food, record the minerals at 5-mins mark, say it's (Y)
X - Y = cost of a loss probe yes you do after the five minute mark your opponent will still have 1 more probe than you. if all you and your opponent do is build probes, he'll always have 1 more than you. the difference later on becomes negligible because of saturation, but it makes the cost more than just "X-Y"
At least this way, you could see what the difference would be/how close it is. Real numbers always help more than made up numbers.
The real problem is that you need to determine when (what time) you end up killing off 1 probe/2 probes/etc, and how much it matters
I think that you would end up with a 2 dimensional graph- one axis for the total number of minerals after 5 minutes, one axis for number of minutes that went by before probe got killed. You would need a different graph setup depending on how many zeals got killed, as well as how many probes you lost.
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if its one probe at the cost of killing 1 zealot, i think you came out on tops.
but if thats not the case i dont think 1 probe will destroy you no matter how early, unless you 4 probe rush like nal_ra ;D
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On November 03 2008 07:58 mjh wrote:Show nested quote +On November 03 2008 07:11 Elvin_vn wrote:
uhm you don't need to calculate anything
Make a game, mine for 5 mins, record the minerals. Say it's (X) mineral.
Make another game where you spawn at the same location, mine for 5 mins but take out a probe at around 12 food, record the minerals at 5-mins mark, say it's (Y)
X - Y = cost of a loss probe yes you do after the five minute mark your opponent will still have 1 more probe than you. if all you and your opponent do is build probes, he'll always have 1 more than you. the difference later on becomes negligible because of saturation, but it makes the cost more than just "X-Y"
after 5 minutes mark, the difference of 1 probe doesn't matter
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Allow me to throw in another variable:
Larva. Each one used to produce a drone/overlord is not being used to produce a fighting unit, delaying the time it takes to build an army.
I realize we've mostly been talking about PvP, but that adds a whole new element to the equation. Of course, all that means is that drones are an even more significant target compared to the other two races. How much more? That's where all this math comes in to play.
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In the same reasoning, if you lost a zealot in battle, what is the cost of this zealot given the amount of potential damage it could cause?
Surely, it costs 100, but maybe it would kill 4 probes, or 2 dragoons in 2 lucky hits... maybe it will force the opponent to get a bunker or a sunken colony...
im drunk nvm me
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16987 Posts
On November 03 2008 07:17 Ceril wrote:
I seriously see where I should be posting all my calculus questions O_O TL.NET ftw.
No Raithed please.
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Calgary25980 Posts
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Calgary25980 Posts
PS hi Zileas I love you why didn't you introduce yourself at the TL dinner wtf is this?
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When I take calculus, I now know what I can be doodling on my worksheets. Calculate SC figures!!
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On November 03 2008 05:11 freelander wrote:honestly, why the fuck are you posting here. honestly, there are the ten commandments of tl.net what you should read once before you start posting. honestly, there are at least 10 people in this topic who posted actual thoughts, opposed to you.
stop saying honestly.
I wouldn't know the exact equation, but in mirror matchups, these worker kills mean everything.
I generally just focus on the workers more than anything. I guess thats a big "duh" though, but recognizing the economic impact a little more closely makes it much more worthwhile. Like, I just killed 10 probes. Thats 500 minerals. Thats an expo and a pylon. Whatever they were doing is going to be slowed down. Maybe not tech wise, but their actions will deteriorate due to your superior economy.
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This is for wc3, it would have quite different numbers in bw, because income progression isn't linear and costs are different, e.t.c.
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EPT
