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[SSL Autumn] Ro24 Preview Pt1: Taking Stock

Forum Index > BW General
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[SSL Autumn] Ro24 Preview Pt1: Taking Stock

Text byTL.net ESPORTS
Graphics byv1
August 25th, 2024 12:16 GMT
ASL11 Main Image
SOOPs up!

We won’t apologise for this and several more puns to come as the ASL era ends(as some would notice with our title) and the new SOOP era begins with the SSL Autumn 2024 season, but with the change will we also see a rise of new champions? Or will we see the spirit of the ASL carry on as is?

Now before we get to the previews, we have our staff resident Snow fan Simplistik tell everyone why he's rooting for Snow to win it all!

Liquipedia


Group A Preview



I believe that (P)Snow is almost certainly(tm) gonna win SSL and here's why.

Divine Justice
First, there is the small matter of divine justice. Snow is easily the best player to never win a big individual title. And he has been for some time on and off all the way back to the early days of ASL. Remember how he took out (R)Flash in ASL5 only to gift the title to (P)Rain? The only other plausible candidate I can think of is (T)Rush. But let's be real, Rush has never quite reached the heights of Snow's best. Practically every other decent player has already won a StarLeague, from (Z)hero to (T)JyJ, including players like (T)Mong, (Z)Killer and (T)sSak. Let that sink in for a moment. sSaK. (Let's not talk about (P)Best. (I hope he does well!))

Seeded
If you're somehow skeptical of Divine Justice, you heretic, then let us look at some cold hard materialist facts. Snow is seeded into the Ro16. This is actually a big deal in ASL, because you have to lose at least one Bo3 to get eliminated. And in 2024, Snow is 33-4(!) in series. Admittedly, that's not quite 90%, but by the standards of any sport you'll have to admit it's fairly decent. That is pretty much New Zealand All Blacks territory. And because Snow is seeded, I can split this post up! Part 1 is mainly about Snow v T, and part two will be about Snow v Z.

Performance
Let's talk about Snow's amazing performance. In the first half of this year Snow has been above 60% in all match-ups and 67% in total. And remember that you only need 65.3% to win OSL. But it's not just that Snow wins, which he certainly does. A lot. It's also the manner in which he wins. To illustrate this point I will review four games from a recent (Wiki)KCM/Race Survival show below. Spoiler warning, Snow was great. Some people are saying that Snow's performance has dropped off a bit in last few weeks

Snow v P
Snow's weakest matchup these days is PvP. And when I say weak, I mean over 60% in Proleague playing exclusively against Best, (P)Bisu and (P)Mini. Now, it's true that Best has been struggling a fair bit in PvP. Long gone are the days of his incredible 16 match winning streak. (Did you know that Best won 28 out of his first 33 PvP's at the pro level?) Bisu has probably been the third best Protoss for some time. And Snow simply swept him aside last ASL. Mini, the best all-round PvP'er right now, could be a challenge, especially if he brings crazy builds. But I still favour Snow, because lately he looks unaccountably serene even under the most immense pressure. I have faith. Plus, Mini has a habit of imploding in big series if things don't go his way. (I say this as a fan who wishes that Mini would show the kind of steely resolve that (Z)Soulkey exudes.) Finally, PvP's are fairly rare, as the latter stages tend to be low on Protoss, with last season being a notable aberration, so I'm not worried. Besides, if you disagree and Mini beats Snow in the final of ASL18 you get the immense pleasure of being right. I live to serve.

Snow v T
Snow squishes Terrans like ripe grapes. He makes tanks look like b-tier units. And vultures are only in the game to give Snow a free economic lead. Our Protoss frontrunner has a solid winning record over all the current top Terrans in Proleague, except JyJ for some bizarre reason. But never mind, in serious tournaments Snow is 8-0 in series against JyJ, having dropped only a single game. Snow hasn't dropped a series to Rush this year, or to Light. My sense is that Light plays too standard to have a realistic chance in a series against Snow at the moment. Flash might have been a threat, but he's a no show. Maybe he can prove us all wrong and win ASL19 playing Protoss. Sharp's not bad. (For evidence, have a look how the reviewed KCM week ended after Snow lost to Queen. Let's not talk about Best. Or Bisu. Sigh...) But his record against Snow is poor, including a solid 7-2 ultimate battle beating.

However good his PvT is, if Snow is to deliver on my claim, then he will need come up with a solid answer to a recent meta shift: five factories into a big early midgame push to take map control or win the game. This has cost Snow a number of games to lesser players recently and he can't let that continue. But there is still time to prepare builds, and, unlike Rain, I expect Snow to use his time wisely.

The biggest remaining Terran challenger is RoyaL, who actually beat Snow recently in the StarCastTV International. This was a curious series, in which RoyaL was very aggressive. The 5-tank push with mines in game one worked, because one mine damaged seven goons and a zealot.

[image loading]
One mine is all it takes sometimes.

RoyaL's second win came from a BBS opening on a map with no ramps. And the final win was another well-executed two-base timing attack that is hard to flank on Shakuras Temple. RoyaL also eliminated both Snow and Rain from ASL16, on the same day. (Maybe he should change his name to Umbrella, if he hates precipitation that much.) In Snow's favour, consider his two dominant victories in Super Fight (9-0) and Ultimate Battle (8-1). Finally, I also believe that Snow has learned from that ASL loss and, although this might be difficult to believe, he is even better now. To see this, let us review their most recent KCM clash.

Group A Preview



KCM 2024, Season 3, Week 6, Game 2, (Wiki)Citadel

(P)Snow opens conservatively, with an in-base gate and core into 19 Nexus, while (T)Royal gets a slightly faster 15-CC followed by a bunker. Snow scouts very late, because the probe gets distracted by chasing the SCV scout around the map. At 4:20, Snow still hasn't seen Royal's second CC, but given the lack of pressure it must be there. The executor warps in a robotics facility, while RoyaL orders the construction of the first armoury and then an engineering bay. Meanwhile, Snow is happy to get his observatory first and to expand to the South. Keep counting the nexuses, because it's easy to lose track. Three.

The first observer is screened by missile turrets from spotting the armory and the starport. Both players add more production. Royal, still without comsat station, is also almost blind. Dragoons snipe one of the first two scouting vultures. Snow then does something we don't often see. His goons fan out across the map in something that looks more like an overlord or SC2 creep pattern, rather than huddling in a big clump.

[image loading]
Protoss creep tumours, not a bad description for dragoons if you think about it.

Royal continues teching and adds a second armory. The first reaver gets loaded. And, just because a he can, Snow snipes an injured vulture with a probe. Royal seems to be playing a slower game and so the Executor starts a nexus in the bottom left main. Four. Royal tries some dropship play, but Snow's creep-tumours are too well spread out, so the pilot is forced to turn around. Eventually, three vultures land in the bottom left, and get greeted by cannons in an otherwise empty base. All three vultures die for one probe. I wonder if this is the thing that's most scary for Terrans playing against Snow. 'Why don't my vultures do ANYTHING?!'

When Snow transfers probes to his fourth base at 10:38, RoyaL is only just slowly moving out to start securing his third base at twelve o'clock. Goons and a reaver shuttle do a good job delaying the tanks. And Snow uses the opportunity to be annoying as hell with two reavers in two shuttles. One reaver ends up with 15 kills, forcing the SCV's to evacuate first the natural, and then the third.

[image loading]
Think one reaver shuttle is annoying?

To add insult to injury, the Protoss economy is booming with another nexus on the way on the West side. Five. Being close to maxed and seeing no mines, a decent sized goon/zealot army charges into the Terran third. Royal holds, but at the cost of at least five tanks, a bunch of vultures, a turret and yet more SCV's. Terran supplies drop down to just over 100, not enough to contest the map.

[image loading]
Yes, those are warp gates, from the future.

Snow decides that he could do with warp gate technology, but he's ahead of his time. So he makes do with some forward gateways near the top left, possibly to make templars for artificial weather control. Speaking of weather, the walls on the map are great to prevent tanks from getting flanked, but they also allow for juicy storms.

[image loading]
Like biting into overripe fruit.

A control group of vultures finally gets through the Protoss gauntlet and tears down the defences at Snow's newest base, the bottom-left natural. Six. But once again there are no probes yet. How on earth does Snow do that? In most games that would be because the Protoss player is slow or made a mistake, but that can't be right here. Of course the nexus survives, until the end of the game, with just under 200 health, and all the vultures explode. Although they manage to massacre a few innocent probes in the bottom left at least. Royal seems to be slowly waking up to the fact that he actually has to start doing something, anything, if he is planning to turn this into a game, never mind winning. He sends a few vultures to destroy the pylon powering the 'warp gates'. But he isn't able to finish off the outpost. The Protoss economy is positively humming. Snow happily pours his 2.5k mineral bank into 12+ gateways to gear up for another shove.

Royal has another command centre ready and is slowly building up his tank count. Most of the Terran army huddles, seemingly full of (justified) fear, behind the castle walls in the North. Before the CC lands at the mineral only, a nexus starts warping in on the Eastern edge, too. Seven. Snow now controls three quarters of the map. He's maxed and has a bank. The main things Terran has going are 3-1 upgrades and a reasonable number of tanks.

The Terran forces, now at just over 160 supply, start edging towards three o'clock. Royal knows that he will lose if he can't secure another base soon. Snow responds with small groups of ground units backed up with storms to roll back the advance. And of course a fresh nexus starts warping in at the top left main, as well as gateways in the bottom left. Eight. During this stalemate, in picaresque style, a wraith shoots down a shuttle and a DT suicide bombs three vultures.

Probles have finished off the minerals in Snow's main, so he warps in another nexus at one of the centre-facing mineral only bases. Nine. Meanwhile, Royal has managed to get a couple of tanks in range three o'clock, but they get overrun by zealots and goons. A dozen templars warp in at a time, because the air was starting to get dry.

[image loading]
A rather gas-heavy army template.

But while Snow is sorting out his rallying units, Royal seizes the initiative and pushes into three o'clock. The defending goons showcase their usual graceful mobility to clump up and turn into goo. That's right, you can't spell 'dragoon' without 'goo'. Tanks get in range of the nexus and vultures race into the expansion. With astonishing skill, Snow clears up this latest attack with extreme ease, arcade style.

[image loading]
Arcade Style

Nevertheless, the trades have started to become more efficient for Terran, and Protoss no longer has a bank. But there are still plenty of minerals right? So Snow warps in another nexus. Ten. Royal does a good job spreading out his forward tanks and protecting them with the occasional defensive matrix. And finally Protoss is pushed out of three o'clock and Terran can start mining the desperately needed minerals. This puts Royal back on three mining bases, although twelve o'clock is getting low. Snow tries to overwhelm the defending army, but the siege tank line is too deep.

[image loading]
Check, but not mate.

Expecting this game to go on for while longer, Snow starts warping in gateways at the top left, just in case, as well as cannons everywhere. And since PvT regulations require that Protoss must build a nexus at least every two minutes, Snow starts two more at the remaining mineral only bases. Eleven. Twelve. You might reasonably wonder if that's perhaps a tad greedy. But you'd be wrong. Snow actually needs more minerals. Honestly! What you can't see is that he's building himself a stately pleasure dome called Xanadu off-screen. And for that he needs as much crystal as he can get his six weirdly long fingers on.

[image loading]
This nexus is actually on fire from mining too hard.

A contingent of the Terran army shifts over to the left-side briefly. Royal doesn't just hate precipitation, apparently he hates Coleridge too, so he rudely bombs the fresh nexus in an uncouth act of vandalism! Snow senses an opportunity to attack three o'clock, but hasn't reckoned with some very good EMP's. The attack fails, and for the first time in the match, at 25:33, Royal takes the supply lead.

[image loading]
What's better than lightning? Electromagnetic pulse. Wait, isn't lightning... Never mind the physics.

This is the opportunity Royal has been waiting for with saintly patience. He just won a decisive battle with relatively few losses, so he sends out his maxed 3-2 army to get some damage done on the left side. Tanks start shelling the cannons at nine o'clock and the top left natural. Snow struggles to pull his forces together and, to make matters worse, runs into a fresh minefield. Charged up templars, shielded by sacrificial zealots, fry some of the encroaching vehicles and keep the nexuses alive for now. The storms are good, but d-matrix on spread tanks is a good counter.

[image loading]
What's better than lightning? Circular defensive lightning of course.

Behind the on-going siege Royal secures fresh income from the top-left mineral only base. (Minerals that rightly belong to Kubla Khan Snow, we note. After three minutes of mayhem, the game is actually starting to look good for Royal. The Terran army shut down nine o'clock and ten o'clock and mines are being very annoying. It's seemingly only a question of time before top-left falls, and with it probably also Protoss' chance to win. Snow spots an opportunity to put pressure on the spread out army and storms some SCV's at the new Terran base. Vultures and tanks have almost broken through the cannons at top-left. The Exectutor is still floating 6k minerals, but he's light on gas units, and it's far too late for a tech transition this game. Protoss upgrades stand at 3-0-1, while Terran is finally at 3-3.

Let's pause for a moment. Cast your mind back to ASL16. In the Ro24 Group C Losers Match, Snow faced Royal on Tempest. He got off to a great start, containing Royal on three bases while taking over his half of the map. I did, at that time, wonder if it's possible to have too many expansions. Now I know better. It isn't. Anticipating victory, the Reaver God aggressively threw waves of units at the Terran bases. But Royal held on and eventually managed to cripple the Protoss economy with a flank to the bottom right to take the game.

What's different this time? Snow has been more patient, so his trades have been better. He never aggressively tried to finish the game, instead he played a stable game, steadily accumulating advantage. He made Terran fight for every mineral patch, without leaving any openings. His vulture defence has been better. Royal never managed to find any significant harassment opportunity. And yet, isn't Snow losing here? Fighting 3-3 Terran with pure ground is hard work. But the new Snow holds his nerve...

Instead of trying to break the siege, or going for a hail Mary play, Snow concentrates his forces on the right side, hitting where the Terran line is thinner. Zealots get on top of the forward tanks, but another great EMP turns the tide. This time the dragoons manage not trip over their own clumsy legs and pull back in time. Unfortunately for Royal, tanks are slow to reposition and even slower to assemble, while Protoss can churn out zealots at speed. And, with a couple of great storms, the second wave clears out the remaining defenders. The SCV's try to run, but, being made from metal, they attract a lot of lightning.

[image loading]
What not to do during a thunderstorm.

We will now briefly interrupt the game report for an important public health message:
How to stay safe in thunder and lightning

Before the thunderstorm
  • Lightning can cause power surges, unplug any non-essential mining appliances if not already using an SCV surge protector.
  • Seek shelter if possible. When you hear thunder you are already within range of where the next ground flash may occur, lightning can strike as far as 10 miles away from the centre of a storm. Do not rush towards the storm!

During the thunderstorm
  • If outside avoid water and find a low-lying open place that is a safe distance from trees, poles or metal objects.
  • Avoid activities such as golf, rod fishing, boating on a lake or mineral mining.
  • Be aware of metal objects that can conduct or attract lightning, including golf clubs, golf buggies, fishing rods, umbrellas, motorbikes, bicycles, wheelchairs, mobility scooters, pushchairs, wire fencing, rails and space construction vehicles. If you are in an SCV, try to stay away from the metal parts.
  • If you find yourself in an exposed location, such as an unguarded mineral field, it may be advisable to squat close to the ground, with hands on knees and with head tucked between them. Try to touch as little of the ground with your body as possible, for example by hovering like a vulture, do not lie down on the ground.

After the thunderstorm
  • Avoid downed power lines or broken cables.
  • If someone is struck by lightning, they often suffer severe burns. The strike also affects the heart, so check if they have a pulse. Either way, call a medic immediately.

Back to the game. Royal finds himself reduced to under 150 supply and two mining bases once more. So he lands a CC at the top-left natural, even though Protoss still controls the main. Snow Khan's cavalry overruns a few isolated tanks and the almost mined-out Terran mineral only base. When the dust settles the Terran army has practically finished off top-left and Royal is back to a fairly healthy 3-base economy. Snow rebuilds the nexus at three o'clock. Thirteen. Yeah, I know, this is completely normal. Seriously, those palaces don't build themselves!

Snow can't allow Royal time to consolidate, so he uses his healthy bank to re-max and slams into the defenses at the top-left mineral only once again. Zealots and templars do a good job, but the goons are being 'graceful' again. A number of SCV's get thunderstruck, but Royal saves the others with good micro. The Protoss force gets wiped out, but the Terran defences are now very thin. There are no vultures or mines, no turrets and the tank count is low. Royal drops below 120 supply which puts him in danger of getting crushed.

[image loading]
CHARGE!

Snow gets back up to full supply very quickly, while Royal's fresh units trickle in slowly. Impressively, the Terran commander has found the time to build missile turrets at the top-left natural, which help to shut down a reaver drop to prolong the game. At 200 vs 144 supply, Snow shoves again. Both players lose over 30 supply quickly, which favours Protoss in this case. Terran has too much ground to cover and not enough units. Plus, the low unit count skirmishy nature of the game is exactly where Snow excels. He shuttles a reaver and a templar into the top left and blows up a bunch of thieving SCV's. And for the first time in the game, Terran doesn't have enough workers to saturate his three mining bases, while Protoss is still enjoying healthy interest from his bank deposits.

[image loading]
Mind the gap between the shuttle and the missile turrets.

With such a tenacious opponent what's an experienced Executor to do? Try something subtle? Nah, re-max and shove again. This time a small number of dragoons break through to the top left, killing a few isolated tanks along the way. Terran supplies drop a little lower still, to 90. But a lot of blue goo was spilled in this battle and Snow is also down to 115. Royal throws a few scans around to see what the resource situation looks like and decides to cling on for a while longer.

At 165 vs 105 supply Snow changes the angle of attack and gallops up the left side, wiping out another 20 Terran supply, including a battery of siege tanks. Once again, dragoons punch through and cause trouble in the top-left. Snow's minerals are starting to run low and a small vulture drop behind the cannons shuts down mining at three o'clock. The bottom left quadrant is almost completely mined out, so Snow is now mining on only two bases, which is actually one less than Royal. But then a beautiful reaver drop takes down two tanks and shuts down the top-left mineral only.

[image loading]
In bowling this would be called a split.

Defenders from top-left join the fight, but get crushed by the next Protoss expeditionary force. An archon starts to blast the illegally mining SCV's at the top-left main, while dragoons finish off the unlicensed workers at the natural. Terran has dropped below 70 supply and the end is now in sight. One final storm sends another half a dozen SCV's to oblivion and Royal admits defeat.

[image loading]

What a game.

GG!

Group B Preview



KCM 2024, Season 3, Week 6, Game 4, (Wiki)Retro

And after another 25 min nail-biter against (Z)Action (see Part 2), (P)Snow gets the casual task of playing (T)Light who has been very solid this year at nearly 60% win rate overall and similarly in TvP. This is long already, so I'll focus on the key moments.

The players start cross-spawn and both open steady, gate expand and factory expand respectively. Light tries to get an edge with a fast vulture drop. Let's have a look how well that goes.

[image loading]
Remember the purpose of vultures?

Yep, that was four vultures for three probes. One dragoon was out on the map clearing up mines, a spotting pylon saw the dropship and three more dragoons were waiting out of sight. The buildings formed a perfect wall. And so Protoss is now ahead. Light tries again and loses two more vultures. For nothing. Snow expands.

There are also no turrets, so the observer gets a full view. After the failed drop Terran doesn't have enough units or factories for a timing attack. Snow warps in a fleet beacon. Light is of course a great player, so he scans it perfectly and is forced to throw down more factories. Given the hidden proxy (lol) science vessel, that probably wasn't part of the plan. Although quick +2 weapons could be a handy surprise factor.

[image loading]
Light's secret lair

Instead of going (P)Stork-style all in (more stargates than bases), Snow gets more gateways to make sure he has enough ground to buy time. And a reaver shuttle. Light's control is really strong though. He snipes the shuttle with goliaths and blows up the reaver with tanks, and thus gets to the middle without taking any significant damage. Is Snow bothered? No, he warps in a new nexus at nine o'clock.

The push looks pretty scary. A wake of vultures feast on a band of slowlots. Goliaths keep the carriers at bay and the tanks push the dragoons back. Textbook! Snow does manage to snipe two tanks with his first four carriers, but the interceptor count is still somewhat low. Behind the push, Light orders a fresh CC to be built at six o'clock, but...

[image loading]
Oh, hi!

The bigger problem for Terran is that there are fewer than two goliaths per carrier, and we all know how that normally ends. And that's exactly what happens here, the carriers win and then wipe out the defenseless tanks. At 17 minutes, Terran is still not mining from a third base. And Protoss has nine carriers. Light moves out one last time and his ground army gets smashed.

[image loading]
Lights out

GG.

Watch out for Part 2, Snow v Z and the Legend of the Fall.

Group A Preview


Group A is bringing together some of the most accomplished players in the Brood War scene. This group includes former two time ASL Champion (Z)Queen, former ASL and KSL champion (P)Rain and two Terran players, Wico and (T)BarrackS, who hope to provide upsets and advance to the round of 16.

Player Details
(Z)Queen - Tier 1:
Queen, one of the most successful Zerg players in ASL history, claimed the ASL title twice—first in Season 9, where he defeated Light 4:1, and again in Season 10, where he narrowly edged out Soma 4:3. In ASL Season 17 he did not qualify, but in the previous season Queen had a strong start by advancing from Group A in the Round of 24, where he defeated Light and Sea before being eliminated in the Round of 16 by Mong and Soulkey. Queen’s consistent gameplay and strong ZvT make him the favorite in Group A, but he’ll need to bring his best to secure a top spot.

(P)Rain - Tier 2:
Rain is a player with a storied career, boasting multiple titles across both ASL and KSL. He won ASL Season 5 by defeating Snow 3:1, and later secured the KSL Season 3 title with a 4:1 victory over Mini. In ASL Season 17, Rain had a disappointing run, finishing last in his Round of 24 group, losing to both Barracks and RoyaL. Known for his versatile and calculated playstyle, Rain excels in PvT, making him a formidable opponent for the Terrans in this group. He’ll be looking to bounce back after his ASL performance.

Wico - Tier 4:
Wico enters this group as the underdog, lacking the titles and accolades of his competitors. However, his unpredictable style and willingness to take risks could work in his favor. Wico did not participate in ASL Season 17, which means he is a bit of a wildcard in this group. His best chance of advancing lies in his ability to catch his opponents off guard with unconventional strategies. Facing Queen in his opening match will be a significant challenge, but if Wico can disrupt Queen’s game plan, he might create an upset that could shift the dynamics of the group.

(T)BarrackS - Tier 3:
Barracks, while not as decorated as Queen or Rain, is a solid and consistent Terran player. In ASL Season 17, Barracks had an impressive showing, advancing from Group F in the Round of 24 with wins over Rain and RoyaL. However, he was eliminated in the Round of 16, where he was unable to overcome Mini and by.hero. His deliberate approach to the game and well-executed timing attacks make him a potential threat in this group. Barracks has the skills to compete at a high level, and his match against Rain will be a key test of his abilities.

Predictions
Match 1: (Z)Queen vs. (T)Wico
Queen’s dominance in ZvT gives him a clear advantage in this matchup. Wico will need to bring something unexpected to the table to stand a chance.

Prediction: (Z)Queen wins

Match 2: (P)Rain vs. (T)BarrackS
Rain’s strong PvT record and his desire to redeem himself after a disappointing ASL Season 17 make him the favorite here. Barracks, while capable, may struggle against Rain’s calculated play.

Prediction: (P)Rain wins

Winners' Match: (Z)Queen vs. (P)Rain
This clash between champions is set to be the highlight of the group. Queen’s ZvP will be put to the test against Rain’s well-rounded PvZ. While it could go either way, Queen’s recent successes give him a slight edge.

Prediction: (Z)Queen wins

Losers' Match: (T)Wico vs. (T)BarrackS
In this Terran mirror match, Barracks’ steady and reliable play is expected to give him the upper hand over the less experienced Wico.

Prediction: (T)BarrackS wins

Final Match: (P)Rain vs. (T)BarrackS
A rematch between Rain and Barracks would likely favor Rain again, given his track record in PvT and his ability to adjust to his opponent’s strategies.

Prediction: (P)Rain wins

Conclusion
(Z)Queen and (P)Rain Advance To The Ro16!


Group B Preview



ASL, err, SSL is back and Group B presents us with a very normal looking group. Each tier of player clearly falls within their respective expectations: (P)Mini is looking to be a tournament favorite, (P)Bisu would be happy with a semifinal finish but would likely be content with making the bracket, (T)sSak would love to make it to the Round of 16 and maybe sneak into the bracket, and (T)Scan is honestly just happy to be here, this being his 2nd ever ASL/SSL with his last appearance being a swift 0-2 in ASL 11.

Unfortunately for our underdogs in both sSak and Scan, they both face off against Protoss players in the first game, and to add insult to injury, on a very Protoss favored map in (Wiki)Dominator. Since Dominator was released, the map has been very slanted towards Protoss, with a biased win rate of 63.2% PvT. The series of ridges allows dragoons to slow down Terran pushes, while the exposed mains and ridges around the map favor the standard shuttle play along with later transitions into carriers. I anticipate that both Mini and Bisu should have no problems dispatching their Terran opponents on this map.

The mirrors are both also favored towards the higher tiered player, with Mini having a much more impressive PvP than Bisu at the moment, and sSak being a solid TvT player who should also dispatch Scan. But regardless of how those results go, I firmly believe that the final match would be another PvT where the Protoss emerges victorious.

Overall, I think this group should be a pretty straightforward group with how the players advance and I don’t predict any upsets, but the wildcard factor in Mini means that anything can still happen.

(P)Mini and (P)Bisu Advance To The Ro16!

Group C Preview



There is one thing that often gets missed in the Ro24 being Bo1 debate and thats the way the groups are built with the points tier system that obviously makes it so that the best players are kept as separated from each other as possible, though you will still get a situation like this where a former ASL champ (T)Royal and the “new walker of the Kong line” (T)Rush end up in the same group with (Z)Sacsri and (P)Motive proving not to just be buffers between the two terrans.

Rush is up there with hero as one of the most consistent performers in the last 4 years only missing top 8 of the ASL, making it to the Ro8 again last season only to lose to hero. Barring any major surprises, he should beat Motive in the opener and face RoyaL in the winners match which could go either way but I predict Rush to take the win and make it out of the group.

RoyaL despite being a former ASL champion has fallen back to the status of just another terran who is just good enough to make Ro16 but hasn't been able to get past that since the season he won. Pretty much locking him in to the Tier 2 spot he holds in the group, he still boasts an Excellent TvZ to beat Sacsri and does have an excellent TvT especially against someone like Rush who he has the historical edge against, but he hasn't been performing at that level that won him a trophy.

Sacsri makes his way back to the offline stage for the first time since ASL 15 back in March of 2023, a stalwart of the K-League which lands with players who perform just below the daily major proleague matches, while ZvT is his best matchup he’s not shown the best results against players who perform on the level of Rush or RoyaL, its likely he’ll take 3rd on the group with a win over Motive.

Motive after years of failing to get into the ASL has finally found favor from the winds of change that brought us the SSL, beating Leta to qualify into the SSL, another K-League stalwart who has mixed performances there but also has shown his skill recently by winning CasterMuse’s CNSL Season 7 beating Scan in the finals, the question now is if he will be able to take that and convert into SSL success.

(T)Rush and (T)Royal Advance To The Ro16!




Writers: Simplistik, BisuDagger, FlashFTW, BLinD-RawR
Graphics: v1
Editors: BLinD-RawR

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TL+ Member
BLinD-RawR
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
ALLEYCAT BLUES50105 Posts
August 25 2024 12:27 GMT
#2
I fully endorse this snow glazing, expect more snow glazing from simplistik in the coming days.

if you want to do the same for your favorite player, please shoot a PM and we can arrange things.
Brood War EICWoo Jung Ho, never forget.| Twitter: @BLinDRawR
TL+ Member
RJBTVYOUTUBE
Profile Joined December 2023
Netherlands792 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-08-25 13:18:41
August 25 2024 13:13 GMT
#3
You made a mistake in the article calling 1127 "wico". Wico is the clan tag, 1127 is the player. Also known as Hidel on Blizzard ID NoeL.

I'm predicting a likely Soulkey win for the season.
JDON MY SOUL!
TMNT
Profile Joined January 2021
2628 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-08-25 13:17:21
August 25 2024 13:17 GMT
#4
Insane writeup by Simplistik, but I hope he didn't just jinx Snow lol.
+ Show Spoiler +
or maybe he already did, as Snow just lost to Royal yesterday in an official tournament


Btw,
In ASL Season 17, Queen had a strong start by advancing from Group A in the Round of 24, where he defeated Light and Sea before being eliminated in the Round of 16 by Mong and Soulkey

This sentence is quite confusing, as Queen didn't qualify for ASL17 (thought this should be the headlight), but then I can't remember who is that player (who beat Light and Sea in Ro24 and was eliminated bu Mong and Soulkey in Ro16). Turns out it was Bisu but he wasn't eliminated in Ro16 lol.
TMNT
Profile Joined January 2021
2628 Posts
August 25 2024 13:20 GMT
#5
On August 25 2024 22:13 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:
You made a mistake in the article calling 1127 "wico". Wico is the clan tag, 1127 is the player. Also known as Hidel on Blizzard ID NoeL.

Wico is the official English ID the player used to register with Afreeca for this SSL. Looks like he's known to Koreans simply as Moon Tae-ho his real name. Probably wants to carry the clan tag to SSL for exposure.
RJBTVYOUTUBE
Profile Joined December 2023
Netherlands792 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-08-25 13:26:57
August 25 2024 13:23 GMT
#6
On August 25 2024 22:20 TMNT wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 25 2024 22:13 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:
You made a mistake in the article calling 1127 "wico". Wico is the clan tag, 1127 is the player. Also known as Hidel on Blizzard ID NoeL.

Wico is the official English ID the player used to register with Afreeca for this SSL. Looks like he's known to Koreans simply as Moon Tae-ho his real name. Probably wants to carry the clan tag to SSL for exposure.

so he name changed for SSL basically lol. Unless SSL incorrectly registered him as Wico by mistake.

+ Show Spoiler +

[image loading]

JDON MY SOUL!
Simplistik
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
1999 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-08-25 13:32:58
August 25 2024 13:32 GMT
#7
On August 25 2024 22:17 TMNT wrote:
Insane writeup by Simplistik, but I hope he didn't just jinx Snow lol.
+ Show Spoiler +
or maybe he already did, as Snow just lost to Royal yesterday in an official tournament



Oh, damn, I should have made positive predictions for everyone else!
Dear BW Gods, I know it's not autumn (in the Northern hemisphere), but please have mercy on Protoss.
Waxangel
Profile Blog Joined September 2002
United States33293 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-08-25 13:54:13
August 25 2024 13:53 GMT
#8
On August 25 2024 22:23 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 25 2024 22:20 TMNT wrote:
On August 25 2024 22:13 RJBTVYOUTUBE wrote:
You made a mistake in the article calling 1127 "wico". Wico is the clan tag, 1127 is the player. Also known as Hidel on Blizzard ID NoeL.

Wico is the official English ID the player used to register with Afreeca for this SSL. Looks like he's known to Koreans simply as Moon Tae-ho his real name. Probably wants to carry the clan tag to SSL for exposure.

so he name changed for SSL basically lol. Unless SSL incorrectly registered him as Wico by mistake.

+ Show Spoiler +

[image loading]



I find it amusing that BW esports has kept the real name culture that it started in the 1990's, when ID culture has taken over in every other game played in Korea.
AdministratorHey HP can you redo everything youve ever done because i have a small complaint?
BisuDagger
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Bisutopia19223 Posts
Last Edited: 2024-08-25 14:17:16
August 25 2024 14:10 GMT
#9
On August 25 2024 22:17 TMNT wrote:
Insane writeup by Simplistik, but I hope he didn't just jinx Snow lol.
+ Show Spoiler +
or maybe he already did, as Snow just lost to Royal yesterday in an official tournament


Btw,
Show nested quote +
In ASL Season 17, Queen had a strong start by advancing from Group A in the Round of 24, where he defeated Light and Sea before being eliminated in the Round of 16 by Mong and Soulkey

This sentence is quite confusing, as Queen didn't qualify for ASL17 (thought this should be the headlight), but then I can't remember who is that player (who beat Light and Sea in Ro24 and was eliminated bu Mong and Soulkey in Ro16). Turns out it was Bisu but he wasn't eliminated in Ro16 lol.

Edit: Fixed my error, thanks for the catch. I went back to ASL16 for the last possible results for Zero. I had too many LP pages open at once. Also wico has 3 different names on different parts of the TL website lol.
ModeratorFormer Afreeca Starleague Caster: http://afreeca.tv/ASL2ENG2
Cricketer12
Profile Blog Joined May 2012
United States13972 Posts
August 25 2024 15:21 GMT
#10
Surely Snow wins this time
Kaina + Drones Linkcro Summon Cupsie Yummy Way
DiMiaN
Profile Joined October 2013
Finland299 Posts
August 25 2024 17:13 GMT
#11
Epic writeup, wow!
Peeano
Profile Blog Joined March 2009
Netherlands4973 Posts
August 27 2024 06:59 GMT
#12
Nice work, men!

I think Terrans have Light has finally figured out how to combat Snow's PvT style with early range goli and siege tanks. I just hope Snow still adapts in time, but I doubt that. Snow's Reaver has become a reliablity, same for Mini. I think Best is the PvT favorite this tournament (but only till Ro8 lol).
FBH #1!
Simplistik
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
1999 Posts
August 27 2024 08:38 GMT
#13
The early goliath range is really a thing. I guess we'll see more obs first, more eco and more goons.
Dear BW Gods, I know it's not autumn (in the Northern hemisphere), but please have mercy on Protoss.
M3t4PhYzX
Profile Joined March 2019
Poland4170 Posts
August 27 2024 08:44 GMT
#14
fantastic write-up

well done! thx
odi profanum vulgus et arceo
tincer
Profile Joined November 2022
11 Posts
August 27 2024 22:00 GMT
#15
tastosis going to cast this?
Simplistik
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
1999 Posts
September 01 2024 20:02 GMT
#16
On August 28 2024 07:00 tincer wrote:
tastosis going to cast this?

Yes, they are, although not live. The VOD's tend to be up about 36h later or so, you can find them easily enough on Youtube.
Dear BW Gods, I know it's not autumn (in the Northern hemisphere), but please have mercy on Protoss.
TornadoSteve
Profile Joined March 2018
1010 Posts
September 02 2024 03:05 GMT
#17
Stay tune for Part.2, 30 minutes before it starts
Jragon
Profile Joined October 2010
Australia1471 Posts
September 02 2024 08:06 GMT
#18
Snow is my favourite type of glaze
"Bisu is just too good." - Jaedong (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=218995) "Bisu hyung's play is just too good" - Flash (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=225861)
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