Ever since the second season of ASL, we’ve had the impression that modern competitive StarCraft is about defeating Flash. Indeed, for three consecutive seasons he was the man to beat, and many progamers attempted and failed to defeat The Ultimate Weapon. Instead, their worth was judged by the resistance they managed to offer. Terran player prowess was measured on a scale of 1 to Flash. Zergs and Protoss players were lucky if they could even take a map.

Ultimately, Terran players suffered collateral damage from mapmaking efforts aimed to take down Flash. In ASL5, Rain was crowned champion, and in just a few months, “second best after Flash” Last won the inaugural season of the KSL and finally earned his place in the spotlight. Both players are serious contenders in their own right, even though neither managed to defend their respective title—and now they have to face each other.

Last’s leitmotif in the post-Kespa era and ASL in particular has been...choking. Time and again he has shown immense technical, tactical, and strategic ability online only to lose in fairly unspectacular fashion offline.

He defeated Flash 3-0 in the inaugural season of the ASL before losing to eventual champion Shuttle. He couldn’t even make it out of his Ro16 group in ASL2 after losses to Bisu and hero. In ASL3, Flash had his revenge and pummeled Last 3-0 on the road to his second consecutive title. Next season, things got worse as Last was forced into an early exit in the Ro24 decider match by an out-of-shape Stork and then, in Season 5, he suffered the same fate again by the man who would eventually defeat Flash, PvT maestro Snow.

Even with growing wrist injury concerns and chronic lackluster offline results, Last persevered, as the preferable interpretation to his nickname would imply. He changed his approach to offline tournaments by streaming much less and focusing on (read: obsessing with) preparation and preserving his wrists as much as possible.

All this bore fruit.

He won KSL Season 1 after struggling against Mini and Movie in the group stages, and went deeper into the previous season of ASL than he had in ages. Even though the cunning and deviousness of a god-tier Effort proved too much to handle, Last had proven he was on track for a much better year.

This season, however, the injury scare is real. There were concerns if Last would even be able to participate, but once again he persevered and won his way to the elimination stage by clever all-in builds against Terran killers Soulkey and Snow. Then he defeated TvT wizard Sharp in an action-packed five game thriller to show that he still has what it takes.

Protoss, however, has been something of a kryptonite for Last in the current era. Most of his early ASL exits were forced by Protoss players, and he struggled to qualify from his mostly Protoss group in the KSL1. Interestingly enough, Rain was in that group, but the two never faced each other.

With Last committing heavily to secret preparation, sponmatch statistics are of no use here. He’s played a mere 12 online PvT matches in 2019, with the latest being in early February. As is to expected, his best chance lies with an optimal mix of builds meticulously planned with the map pool in mind and personally designed to bring Rain down.

It took Rain a while to leave his mark on the post-Kespa StarCraft scene, too. He had some early exits in ASL until Season 4, where he reached the Ro8 just to get himself eliminated by bashing his head time and again against Larva’s flawless defense. He returned the next season with a 3-1 victory in the final against Snow to become ASL champion but then failed to defend his title in Season 6. Rain had to work hard this year after losing the wildcard match for Flash’s and Shuttle’s seeded spots. He worked his way through the qualifiers and then topped both his Ro24 and Ro16 groups to qualify for his Ro8 PvP rendez-vous with Horang2, which he won in flawless fashion.

Truth be told: besides Larva, the opposition Rain has faced this year has not been too tough. Still, he definitely feels like the favorite against Last. He looks calm and composed, and his online statistics show that Rain has most Terran players’ number. He sports an insane 70.3% PvT win rate with Flash accounting for most of his losses. Rain himself has innovated a lot in the PvT matchup lately, implementing and popularizing aggressive multi-shuttle play in the mid game, as well as a late game raiding style that keeps the fight close to the Terran.

He also likes mixing up his openers every now and then with a nexus first or proxy build. By shifting gears constantly, he never lets the opposition get complacent. On top of his strategic acumen, Rain boasts clockwork reaver/shuttle control, great multitasking, and beastly macro. His only weak spot lies in his tendency to sometimes try and prepare for everything at once, which could definitely be exploited by Last.

Block Chain is the repeat map for the series and the least-understood map this season (and also the most statistically lopsided, too). The average expected win rate favors Terran over Protoss there (56.3%), but Rain’s results suggest otherwise with a 68.8% win percentage. This map is conductive to openings both greedy and aggressive. Drop plays can be expected, but carrier builds are also quite possible.

The second game is on Whiteout. The map’s unique features strongly suggest shuttle play, and seeing as how Rain favors using multiple shuttles against Terran, it comes as no surprise that he boasts a ridiculous 76.9% win rate here. Interestingly enough, that’s the map he vetoed to be played twice, possibly fearing all-in or aggressive play from Last.

Map number three is Neo Sylphid, which is possibly the most balanced of the maps in this season’s map pool. Rain’s win rate here is a fairly respectful 64.3%. Again, it’s prudent to anticipate shuttle play with the large open mains surrounded by walls. Assuming a more standard approach to the map by both players, the defense of the Terran third can be the defining point of this game.

Match Point is the fourth map in the series and could, ironically, prove to be the site of the final game. Its online statistics favor Protoss slightly (52.2%) and Rain heavily (68.8%) in the matchup. It’s a more standard two player map with a characteristic short rush distance. As such, gas steals and proxies shouldn’t surprise anyone. Should the game progress into its later stages, Recall is a fairly potent weapon for Protoss.

Predicting the outcome of the match can be problematic in the following scenarios:

• When we don’t know much about the physical condition of the players
  
• When either player has committed to preparing targeted strategies in secret

However, Rain’s PvT is one of his stronger matchups, and with him being the best all around Protoss players, I’d say that he is definitely the favorite here. It is true that Last has shown us that he is still fit for the big stage in his Ro8 match with Sharp, but his chronic problems against Protoss and potentially shot wrists may end up being the real opponent here. We still have to guess at the extent of his recovery and the impact a hectic five-game series has had on his injuries. It’s up to Rain to prepare properly for this series, and if he does, it’s probably a straightforward win for him.

Rain advances to the Grand Finals 3-1!