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Active: 1487 users

[SSL] Ro16 Tiebreaker Scenarios

Forum Index > BW General
Post a Reply
QuickStriker
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
United States3694 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-01-18 10:56:18
January 18 2015 09:56 GMT
#1
[image loading]


SPOILERS INCOMING POST DAY 4 OF SSL RO16, YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED!

With just one week and 2 match days left to go till the end of 10th SonicTV Starleague Round of 16 Group Stage, I begin to analyze heavily of all the possibilities on who will end up toward the next stages of Round of 8.

After finalizing the results of Ro16 Day 4, I have come to a conclusion that potential tiebreakers is inevitable before all players and fans alike can breathe easy.

Note: This will be somewhat of major spoilers for those who have not seen up to SSL10 Ro16 Day 4 matches. You have been warned again!




Following the results and possibilities that can occur for each group within Group A to Group D, I decided to make simple split description into 4 different sections:


Group A:


+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]
Winners and losers already determined?


Looks simple right? Wrong, while there is no tiebreakers happening here, the battle determing first or second seeds of Group A lies directly between Mong and Mini. As for Movie/Pure who currently lost all their matches, all hope has been lost for them already. See this extremely complicated pie chart below for details:

[image loading]
Geez, who will possibly advance to ro8?


Outcome: NO TIEBREAKER, Day 5 determines 1st/2nd Seed for Ro8 Group





Group B:


+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]
Group B: The Group of Death


The first potential tiebreaker in the works ever since OGN restarted broadcasting SC BW Starleague! Here's the actual breakdown:

1. Mind goes 3-0 taking 1st Seed while Jangbi/Free/PianO all go 1-2 for a 3-way tiebreaker to fight for 2nd Seed.

OR

2. Mind/Jangbi/Free all go 2-1 for a 3-way tiebreaker to fight for 1st AND 2nd Seeds while PianO eliminated with 0-3 record.

OR

3. Free > Mind and PianO > Jangbi and thus Mind/Free advance (with NO TIEBREAKERS).

OR

4. Mind > Free and Jangbi > PianO and thus Mind/Jangbi advance (with NO TIEBREAKERS).

If you still don't understand what this all means, why don't you look at this extremely easy-to-determine pie chart to see who will advance as first and who will advance as second in Group B:

Note: If name is first, that player is considered 1st seed of the group. If name is second, that player is considered 2nd seed of the group.

[image loading]
Compared to Group A, this looks fairly easy, right?


Outcome: Out of 4 possible results, two of them will result in a 3-WAY TIEBREAKER determining either 1st/2nd seed or just 2nd seed for Ro8 Group





Group C:


+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]
Group of Deat.... wait, this is Group C?!


That's right, if you just saw my Group B section, you will notice that this is awfully identical right to what's to expect in the next two matches. Therefore, I simply copy/paste Group B scenarios and replace name A with name B on actual breakdown:

1. sSak goes 3-0 taking 1st Seed while Snow/hero/Sea.KH all go 1-2 for a 3-way tiebreaker to fight for 2nd Seed.

OR

2. sSak/Snow/hero all go 2-1 for a 3-way tiebreaker to fight for 1st AND 2nd Seeds while Sea.KH eliminated with 0-3 record.

OR

3. Snow > sSak and Sea.KH > hero and thus sSak/Snow advance (with NO TIEBREAKERS).

OR

4. sSak > Snow and hero > Sea.KH and thus sSak/hero advance (with NO TIEBREAKERS).

If you're unclear about what this all means, here's an easy-to-follow pie chart that shows all possibilities to who advance 1st/2nd with percentage!

Note: If name is first, that player is considered 1st seed of the group. If name is second, that player is considered 2nd seed of the group.

[image loading]
I once ate a pie like this, guess which slice I got?


Outcome: Out of 4 possible results, two of them will result in a 3-WAY TIEBREAKER determining either 1st/2nd seed or just 2nd seed for Ro8 Group





Group D:


+ Show Spoiler +
[image loading]
Everyone is equal! How's this possible?!


While this looks complicated and marks way for tiebreaker scenario by the end of match day 6, we'll determine who are winners and who are losers for Group D. But the question remains, who will be the winner of winners and loser of losers?!

With the given matches remaining, it's clear that 2 winners and 2 losers will be selected but without knowing who the 1st nor 2nd seed of this group will be. Given by this rare, strange, and weird scenario, OGN may just pull a tiebreaker match just to determine 1st/2nd seed IF ONLY there are tiebreaker matches on other groups already.

Here's all the possibilities in a form of a pie chart to see who shall rise as a winner and THE WINNER:

Note: If name is first, that player is considered 1st seed of the group. If name is second, that player is considered 2nd seed of the group.

[image loading]
Perfect 8 slices of pie except that each of them suppose to be 12.5%...


Outcome: There'll be clear 2 winners of Group D but a 1st/2nd Seed TIEBREAKER may occur if OGN decides to spend resources for additional broadcast and possibly if there's other tiebreaker groups occurring already.





There you have it folks! Quick rundown of potential tiebreaker scenarios and outcomes for one of the biggest and exciting Korean Professional StarCraft Broodwar Starleague in 2015!

Special thanks and shout-outs to DiMiaN for SSL10 banner graphics, Prech for excel/pie chart conversions, Terranlisk, crimson0011, c3rberUs, GGtimes, kngtheo, ninazerg and everyone else at snipealot2 twitch chat who was with me while trying to figure out the exact math on google docs doodling. Not to mention some of the most "unique" macro images I've seen while I was figuring out the percentages to make a pie chart just because any thread that uses pie chart is automatically considered a cool thread.
www.twitch.tv/KoreanUsher
c3rberUs
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
Japan11286 Posts
January 18 2015 10:07 GMT
#2
After learning a how to use excel, and snipping tool, wow.

crimson0011, c3rberUs

That's the same guy.
WriterMovie, 진영화 : "StarCraft will never die".
Terranlisk
Profile Blog Joined February 2007
Singapore1404 Posts
January 18 2015 10:10 GMT
#3
I love this guy, pie charts 10/10.
aka myheronoob
lestye
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States4186 Posts
January 18 2015 10:17 GMT
#4
Thanks for making that incredibly simple to understand. This format is bizzare for me.
"You guys are just edgelords. Embrace your inner weeb desu" -Zergneedsfood
Bakuryu
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
Germany1065 Posts
January 18 2015 10:52 GMT
#5
scenario 4 of group B and C is wrong. the player with the 2-0 score has to win, not the one who he is playing against.
QuickStriker
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
United States3694 Posts
January 18 2015 10:57 GMT
#6
On January 18 2015 19:52 Bakuryu wrote:
scenario 4 of group B and C is wrong. the player with the 2-0 score has to win, not the one who he is playing against.

Thanks for pointing out the typo. I almost nearly passed out and fell asleep before randomly browsing TL and saw your comment and made me awake just enough to make the fixes at 5:55 AM in morning. Time to go back passing out till noon.

Thanks!
www.twitch.tv/KoreanUsher
rotta
Profile Joined December 2011
5598 Posts
January 18 2015 13:11 GMT
#7
Nice work!

KSL spoilers:
+ Show Spoiler +
Wow, way more exciting last rounds than KSL's. I hope Mind, free and hero advance to fight for dual championship!
don't wall off against random
prech
Profile Joined March 2014
United States2948 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-01-18 21:59:23
January 18 2015 20:57 GMT
#8
Nice work, QS.

The charts really help visualize how great a position (T)Mind and Snow (T)sSak are in in their respective group, as well as how poor of a position (T)PianO and (P)Sea.KH are in

Then the disparate situation in the all tied-up group D.

Next week's matches are going to be exciting!
Liquipedia
QuickStriker
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
United States3694 Posts
Last Edited: 2015-01-18 21:44:17
January 18 2015 21:24 GMT
#9
^ you mean (T)Mind and (T)sSak right for their good positions in their respective groups?

But yea, aside from Group A, all the groups are a mess, the pie chart exactly shows us these complex situation, even took me at least 30 minutes to successfully decode the math/percentages/science behind all this lol.

On January 18 2015 19:07 c3rberUs wrote:
After learning a how to use excel, and snipping tool, wow.

Show nested quote +
crimson0011, c3rberUs

That's the same guy.

Yes, yes and also yes.
www.twitch.tv/KoreanUsher
darktreb
Profile Joined May 2007
United States3017 Posts
January 19 2015 11:21 GMT
#10
Group D is way cleaner than this description makes it sound. Whichever two players win the final two games advance, and whoever happened to win their prior head-to-head matchup is 1st. Seems pretty contrived to think OGN would whip out a tiebreaker game just because there are other tiebreakers or whatever.
BLinD-RawR
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
ALLEYCAT BLUES50596 Posts
January 19 2015 11:46 GMT
#11
On January 18 2015 18:56 QuickStriker wrote:
Outcome: There'll be clear 2 winners of Group D but a 1st/2nd Seed TIEBREAKER may occur if OGN decides to spend resources for additional broadcast and possibly if there's other tiebreaker groups occurring already.


probably unlikely because they might do lottery picking for Ro8 opponents, much to sayle's dismay sonic does love hitting the randomizer.
Brood War EICWoo Jung Ho, never forget.| Twitter: @BLinDRawR
remag
Profile Joined August 2009
Germany354 Posts
January 19 2015 11:50 GMT
#12
You didn't weigh in the players win ratio? Just under the circumstance that all the games go out 50/50? Just a statistic in a vacuum.
kjwcj
Profile Joined November 2011
Australia1064 Posts
January 19 2015 13:59 GMT
#13
Cool breakdown, thanks. Glad that some of the day 6 games will actually be meaningful.
Writer
QuickStriker
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
United States3694 Posts
January 20 2015 22:27 GMT
#14
On January 19 2015 20:21 darktreb wrote:
Group D is way cleaner than this description makes it sound. Whichever two players win the final two games advance, and whoever happened to win their prior head-to-head matchup is 1st. Seems pretty contrived to think OGN would whip out a tiebreaker game just because there are other tiebreakers or whatever.

On January 19 2015 20:46 BLinD-RawR wrote:
probably unlikely because they might do lottery picking for Ro8 opponents, much to sayle's dismay sonic does love hitting the randomizer.

It's true that OGN may very well not care about the situation on Group D. Perhaps make Ro8 randomized or lottery picking or just based 1st/2nd seed on 1st match up head-to-head. But I think that option shouldn't be ruled out though. This is after all, tiebreaker scenarios thread for SSL16.

Makes my entire thread slightly pointless if I didn't even bother to mention or rule such possibility lol. I considered all "realistic" angles here.

On January 19 2015 20:50 remag wrote:
You didn't weigh in the players win ratio? Just under the circumstance that all the games go out 50/50? Just a statistic in a vacuum.

This is a tiebreaker scenario thread, not a detailed SSL10 battle report write-up consist of multiple staff. You don't seem to realize how much I struggled calculating those pie charts.
www.twitch.tv/KoreanUsher
QuickStriker
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
United States3694 Posts
January 22 2015 16:03 GMT
#15
Bumping to make this relevant since it IS relevant with possibilities happening regardless of Day 5 results as detailed on my OP since it requires Day 5 + Day 6 data and swing in any direction.
www.twitch.tv/KoreanUsher
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