On April 02 2012 07:39 FlaShFTW wrote: flash is always a favorite no matter what. bo3, bo5, bo7, hes unbeatable. you'll get close, and force the final set, but in the end, hes not gonna lose. bo1, yes maybe. you've seen him lose those games to the toss players. however, hes like a tiger woods, his mental game is absurd and he wont budge from it. put him vs dear boX (besides 1) FlaSh would crush dear.
Too bad tiger couldn't even resist his sexual feelings. Listen up, bribe Flash with hookers!
On April 02 2012 07:29 Jonas wrote: It looks like you used the winrates based on the careers of of the players, instead of the win rates in the last year or two. Like Jaedong isn't even on the most recent TL power ranking and has been playing pretty "meh" as of late but you have at the second or third most likely person to win in each of your simulations because you used the career winrates instead of the recent ones. As much as I love Jaedong, I think that that is overestimating his chances.
Yeah, in the first set of simulations, the careerwise win rates were used. In the second set of simulations, as I tried to explain, I multiplied all wins with weights based on how long ago they were played. The weights become smaller the longer it was since the game was played, according to the following formula:
w(t) = 0.5 - (pi/2)*arctan((t-100)/100)
The weights for a few values of t, which is measured in days:
So to be perfectly clear, if you lost 7 games last year and won one game yesterday, your win rate with these weights would be roughly 50% + Show Spoiler +
1*75/(1*75+7*0.11) ~= 0.5
With these weights, most old progamers (in my list of 75) have more than 50% of the influence of their winrates based on games played the last year or so. For Jaedong, perhaps surprisingly, the win rates are still impressive:
Versus terran, with no weights, Jaedong has 199 wins and 116 losses - a 63% winrate. With the weights, it becomes 9.99 wins and 6.18 losses - a winrate of almost 62%. + Show Spoiler +
Jaedong slump? LIES!!
Similar numbers for vs Zerg and vs Protoss.
The weight function is of course arbitrarily chosen, but I did play around with the parameters a bit to get something that looked "reasonable". I want the recent games to count a lot, while still taking into consideration past merits to some degree. The weight function is first reducing rather slowly, then faster and faster. After 100 days it's dropping the fastest and after that the reduction is slowing down (the derivative is first growing, then reaches a peak at 100, then it's shrinking towards 0).
Even though Jaedong is not looking as strong as he once did, he is still one of the best players. And I'm not just saying that because I'm a fan. The power rank, while perhaps being good for other things, is not a good indicator of who's currently the best player. It's based too much on subjective opinions, and is also quite short sighted in that it only looks at the past month's achievements.
On April 02 2012 07:40 a176 wrote: you should do one of these for jin air, and then compare to actual results
Hey, that's actually a good idea. Challenge accepted!
I'll try first with the win rates that I have now, because it would take some time to update the win rates to correspond to what they were before that league started. I'll try to think of a way of updating the winrates automatically though. Time to transfer this project to Python perhaps...
Lets be honest here, if it is a JvF flash is going to win. Flash losing in a BoX in TvZ, its just not going to happen. As a massive JD fan I don't want a repeat of 2010. The best possible fiinals would be jaedong vs P, because I feel like if JD does some serious ZvP practice, he won't lose to anyone.
@Reuental, while I would put my money on Flash vs anyone at this moment in time, you are underestimating Jaedongs chances imo. As I just mentioned in another thread, Jaedong has won 4 of the last FvJ games. I mean, this game here: http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/korean/games/64421_Flash_vs_Jaedong/vod
This game represents the epitomy of standard solid build orders when it was played. Jaedong wins so convincingly and so quickly I was reminded that JD really is a monster, and I think some people on this site are being overly dismissive of his chances vs Flash. Again, just highlighting both sides of the argument.
On April 03 2012 08:32 CardinalAllin wrote: @Reuental, while I would put my money on Flash vs anyone at this moment in time, you are underestimating Jaedongs chances imo.
I agree. Flash is no doubt the better player right now, but it's not like he wins 100% of the time.
My simulations say that Flash wins against Jaedong 60% of the time. In a Bo5 game, that's about 70% chance to win for Flash.
EPT
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