EPTHeed my words.
Who will win the OSL? A statistical simulation - Page 3
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Lumire
United States607 Posts
Heed my words. | ||
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Lysanias
Netherlands8351 Posts
A nailbiting final between JD and Flash would be my pick though, for old times sake. | ||
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Sinedd
Poland7052 Posts
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taitanik
Latvia231 Posts
 flash obviously | ||
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googolplex
United States280 Posts
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HaXXspetten
Sweden15718 Posts
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ProxyKnoxy
United Kingdom2576 Posts
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THM
Bulgaria1131 Posts
Go go Flash. | ||
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StorkHwaiting
United States3465 Posts
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eviltomahawk
United States11135 Posts
On April 01 2012 19:46 StorkHwaiting wrote: Cool thread but seeing Sea statistically ranked above Stork for chances of OSL is just lolstastic. Haha, yeah. It was funny to see teamless Hiya ranked above Bisu, but then I remember. It's Bisu, and it's OSL. They combine as well as bleach and chlorine. | ||
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TheKefka
Croatia11752 Posts
On April 01 2012 09:51 Fionn wrote: ![[image loading]](http://img.dailygame.co.kr/news/201107/attachments/20110723_75af24f120c25d6929493a2936b1eb05.jpg) I think it would be a fitting end to OSL. If action wins that would be the end alright. | ||
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Severus_
759 Posts
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gulati
United States2241 Posts
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Count9
China10928 Posts
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blubbdavid
Switzerland2412 Posts
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KenNage
Chile885 Posts
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NeWeNiyaLord
Norway2474 Posts
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marcelluspye
United States155 Posts
That said, Grape's got this one in the bag! | ||
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slappy
United States1271 Posts
Anyone have any sort of confirmation on whether Hiya is really going to play? I thought he retired | ||
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Agrajag
Sweden38 Posts
But seeds don't matter beyond the Ro16 anyway (actually, do they now randomize Ro16 too? You used to be able to pick them A picks B who picks C who picks D. All A's were previous semifinalists from last season). Quarterfinals are randomly assembled, so at that point, there's no advantage to having a higher seed, as you will not be guaranteed to play a much lower seed, or even a lower seed at all. I like that you're having fun with statistics, and OSL hype is good, but I don't feel like a statistical analysis offers much insight when compared to our own empiricism. Your simulations show that Flash, Jaedong, and fantasy are favorites. Well, none of us had to run any simulations to tell you the same thing. For the Ro16 group selection I followed the description in the ultimate OSL FAQ. In my implementation the selection criteria is going according to current ELO rank, where the player who chooses a person for his group always picks the one with the worst ELO ranking of the ones who are available. It's not perfect, but it should give a decent spread I think. I'm not really claiming that this will offer a lot of insight - the reason I'm doing it is because it's fun. I do believe this type of simulation to be rather powerful however, if you remember the limitations. Even if no model will ever be a perfect replicate of the real world, this type of simulation can take in a lot more parameters than analytical calculations. Also it's easy to see how certain parameters affect things like chances of winning an OSL, within a particular model. You just have to keep in mind that there is no reasonable way (in this case) to know how close different models really are to reality. As much as we'd all love to, it's not like we can replay this coming OSL a thousand times and see what happens. FWIW, the usual term is "statistical anomalies", but I like your phrasing here much better! Lol, anomaly was definitely the word I was going for. I agree that abomination is strangely fitting in this context anwyay though  The biggest problem with the simulation is the rapid change in skill level even in a month to month basis. Even though a large sample of games was used for the win rates, it doesn't correlate extremely strongly with current win rate. (e.g. I'd say Flash all match ups right now would be above 70%, maybe a whole 10% higher) I agree. That's why after a lot of copy-pasting from TLPD I now weighed the win rate statistics for each player according to a (in all honesty fairly arbitrary) function that puts a lot more emphasis on recent games. See the updated OP for further results! I also apologize for having made a mistake in the description of the winning process. The simulations were done according to the following algorithm: 1. Denote by p1 player 1's winrate vs player 2's race, and by p2 player 2's winrate vs player 1's race. 2. Generate two uniformly distributed random numbers u1 and u2. 3. If p1*u1 > p2*u2, then player 1 wins. Otherwise player 2 wins. This puts a bit more emphasis on winrate when compared to the other algorithm I described before, where player 1 wins if u1 < p1/(p1+p2). Which method is more realistic? No idea. It actually does make a really big difference for the results though. | ||
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