EPTWho Will Save the Protoss?
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(I figured this excellent photo by NeverGG was appropriate!)
After the ZvP 3-base 5-hatch strategy came out in the Fall of 2008, Protoss entered a long dark age - any scrub Zerg was confident in his ZvP, and the Protoss vs Zerg statistics (particularly in televised matches) were a total mess. Upon further examination, the 3-base 5-hatch build (plus Zerg simcity) is arguably the single most important reason for the Protoss downfall.
Over the past two years, all Protoss have been trying to figure out how to defeat the 5 hatch style, from Kal's Reaver/Sair, to Bisu's mass Goon HT escort, to Movie's odd strategies, to brute force mass units - all were ultimately solved by the Zerg - meaning that these styles all had their flaws. Recently, the newest wave we've seen has been the effective use of Speedlots from Bisu, which so far doesn't appear to have been solved by Zerg yet. Examining Bisu's PvZ play might give us some insight on the matchup:
After the Zerg gets 3-base 5-hatch, they typically have three transitions: 1. switching between Mutas and Hydras, 2. Turtling on 4-base and getting Hive, 3. Lurker contain plus a variety of harassment. There are some variations, such as a sudden wave of Zerglings - a cautious Protoss has many ways to prepare himself, and we won't go into that in detail here.
The main responses from the Protoss are the Stargate-Citadel and Stargate-Robo openings. Kal's Stargate-Robo style has proven to be ineffective, particularly against S-class Zergs, so we will discuss some of the changes seen in matches with the Stargate-Citadel opening.
One of the things Protoss has to consider when choosing a build is how to effectively prepare for the Hydra-Muta transition - this is a fundamental problem that must be solved, and a reason why the Protoss don't seem to have much variety recently in play. In matches played over the past two years, we've seen Protoss gain some sort of advantage early on, only to be overwhelmed by Hydras later, a result of not reacting well to the transition. Let's recap traditional responses:
1. Jaystar (Chinese player) style +1 Speedlots: The core idea here is to hit the Zerg before the 3-base 5-hatches are fully complete, but this is a double edged sword that often hurts the Protoss more than it does the Zerg - if the Speedlots can't do enough damage then it's pretty much GG shortly afterwards.
2. In order to deal with mass Hydra effectively, HT are ideal, and so a key aspect of Protoss play is figuring out how to protect HTs from being sniped by the Muta ball. Bisu invented a strategy where he'd make a full-scale Goon switch to escort the HTs, and this worked out decently for awhile, but this kind of build is extremely gas intensive and limits the amount of Corsairs available to contest air superiority. In addition, it doesn't put much pressure on the Zerg in the early game, and so we've seen even greedier builds from the Zerg such as 3-base 6-hatch for an even stronger economic advantage, to the point where some Zergs would simply sack a control group of Mutas to snipe the HTs, and the Hydras would clean up the remaining Zealot-Goon;
3. As for Horang2's brute force style... it's certainly entertaining, but it's only useful against average Zerg players - Movie's various strategies are often good for one-time only, and aren't adequate to lift up the Protoss race overall.
4. Protoss also have Archons, which at first glance are awesome - Archons > Muta, Zealot > Hydra, but oftentimes we see Zergs scourging the Corsairs and then obliterating the Protoss ground forces with pure Hydra.
Let's take a look at some of the problems Protoss face in dealing with the 3-base 5-hatch style:
1. Insufficient gas - Protoss tech for countering Hydras is gas intensive. In particular, the fact that different units require different tech trees - Citadel, Stargate, Robotics - makes life extremely difficult. If stuck on two geysers, it's hard to maintain two tech trees - it's nearly impossible to maintain all three tech trees while keeping up with upgrades.
2. Lack of pressure on the Zerg in early game allows the Zerg to drone whore too easily, so by the time the mixed Protoss forces move out, they're oftentimes overwhelmed by mass - the Zerg simply "outspends" the Protoss in a battle of attrition easily.
Is there no perfect counter? Must the Protoss simply bow down before the Zerg? It's up to Bisu once more, in his return to glory, Fall 2010, restoring hope to the race. Bisu brought us an upgraded version of the Zealot-Archon-Corsir style - at the beginning of the season, commentators still had a little trouble figuring it out. Let's examine our understanding of his strategy here.
In the past, Protoss had a mistaken mentality; that Zealots couldn't fight against mass Hydra. We'd often see games where Zealots would fight Hydras at the Protoss choke backed up by cannons, ending with a ggyo. Now Bisu has come to tell us, "You've got it wrong. Here's a better idea: I don't rely on cannons, instead taking advantage of the Zealot's strength: speed and +1." One of the difficulties Protoss had with using Zealots against Hydras in a choke battle situation was that the Zealots couldn't spread out effectively, compounded by the fact that Hydras would clump easily, not allowing Zealots to use their speed. Now, Bisu's core strategy is to use +1 speedlots to take map control, engaging the Hydras before they can reach critical mass, using mobility, concentrating maximum strength on the opponent's weak points. (Part of Mao Zedong's strategy!)
With this mindset, Bisu's strategy starts to make sense - getting +1 speedlots without sacricing too much economy, not going for the kill but simply disrupting their economy while slowly accumulating Corsairs to challenge the air, taking out as many Overlords as possible. In midgame, utilizing a Zealot-Corsair mix (not even necessarily using Goons), plus a few Archons to take on Mutas, actively contesting map control, patrolling the center of the map (typically between the Zerg's main and 3rd), preventing the Zerg from organizing his Hydras into a critical mass, engaging one side at a time, forcing the Zerg to sacrifice economy for more sunkens and troops. At the same time, using the gas saved to tech up, get upgrades, and make more Corsairs. When HT tech is complete, it's time to take a 3rd, transitioning smoothly into late game, where Bisu has a good chance against anyone.
The keys to this strategy:
1. The first wave of Zealots can't die needlessly, and must be used carefully. If not confident in the odds, then hold back - some especially greedy Zergs will die right here;
2. Reinforcing Zealots must contest the center, controlling the area between the Zerg's nat and 3rd, stopping his troops from massing up, pressuring both sides with Speedlot mobility.
3. Corsairs have to survive [T/N lol Best is fucked], ready to engage Zerg air, jumping in to snipe Overlords when possible.
4. Taking the 3rd base relatively lately, waiting until the Protoss ball is fairly strong and mixed, or until you get an advantage.
In the past Bisu went pretty much 50-50 against Jaedong and wasn't particularly favored against any A-Class Zerg, but recently it seems that Bisu simply curbstomps the average Zerg. Currently Zerg has various responses to Bisu but all have fallen - of course, it remains to be seen how well such a strategy will hold up against an S-Class Zerg - we hope to see a Bisu vs Jaedong match soon!
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