EPT
Abstract:
In the past, uncertainty has gripped the Starcraft community regarding the ranking of Protoss players in terms of performance. A popular ranking system, known as the "Six Dragons Theory" has exhibited considerable popularity since its inception. Herein I discuss an enhanced player rating system based on recent performances in SL and PL.
Introduction:
With the rise of the swarm and the rapid decline of the Protoss race, it has become increasingly difficult to determine whether or not Protoss players have fallen from the high point era now known as the era of the Six Dragons. These changes, sparked by new imbalanced maps for Zerg and Terran, have amplified the fall of the Protoss Race. Not surprisingly, Protosses have been suffering mightily at the hands of the Swarm as of late, constantly missing from Starleagues as of late. The question then may be asked: Which Protoss players constitute the new "Dragons" and shall represent the Protoss race for years to come?
With the aim of casting some light on the current Protoss situation, this article offers an overview of the complexity of ranking Protoss players and considers the diversity of success from various aspects of progaming.
Historical Background:
In the early days of progaming, Protoss players have always experienced hardships when it came to success. Outside of a select few gamers, namely Garimto, Reach, Kingdom, Nal_rA, and Anytime, the Protoss race had little to no hope. With just 6 Starleague titles in a span from 2000 to 2006, Protosses had experienced little success in Starleagues, only to look on and watch Terran and Zerg bonjwas Boxer, Oov, Savior, and Nada combine for a whopping 18 titles alone.
However, even with their limited success, Protosses persevered onwards, finally gaining recognition as Bisu, the Revolutionist burst onto the scene and shocked then bonjwa Savior in the Gom TV MSL. Forever changing the way Protosses played against Zergs, the Protoss race experienced it's first stint of success, with Bisu and Stork leading the way.
In 2008, Protosses would experience great success in the ClubDay Online MSL, Incruit 2008 OSL, and GOM Season 1 Starleagues. For the first time in the ClubDay MSL, all four semifinalists were Protoss players (1). As the Protoss race ascended to the top, Koreans would soon deem 6 of these select Protoss players as the "Six Dragons" (2).
Why Only 6?:
The volatile matchup of Protoss vs Zerg has always been an Achilles Heel for Protoss players. Historically, Zergs have won over 53% of games vs Protoss players, and has generally been considered an easy matchup for Zergs. Mediocre zergs such as Jju have even been quoted saying, "ZvP is easy. I can beat anyone at ZvP" in the past. After statistical surveys compiled by Korean netizens, the 6 dragons (Best, Bisu, Kal, Stork, Free, Jangbi) were selected by their >50% win rates in PvZ at the time along weighted along with impressive win ratios in their other two matchups. Therefore it is not surprising that other up and coming Protosses of the time such as Tempest and Backho were left out of the mix.
Does this theory still hold?:
Fast forward a year and a half later to mid 2009. The era of the Six Dragons has come and gone. None of the dragons have consistently made it to even the latter stages of Starleagues as of recent, not to mention winning a Starleague. With the popularity of the 3 hatch spire to 5 hatch hydralisk build, Zergs have been completely dominating almost every Protoss player out there. Thus, the old Korean statistical survey holds little to no credibility anymore, thus necessitating the need for a new ranking system of Protoss players.
Proposal for Dragon Requirements:
Based upon data gathered and regressed (holding all else constant), we have concluded that in order to qualify as a dragon, one:
Must have at least one Round of 16 appearance in either the MSL or OSL
OR
Must have a 100% win percentage in Ace matches in Proleague
OR
Must currently be within 90 points of their ELO peak
OR
Must have a career win % of greater than 65%.
However, just like in ancient Norse mythology, there can only be 10 dragons at a time.
Statistical Analysis :
Therefore from our proposal, we compile a list of Dragons, before and after. All stats from TLPD (3).
Current "Dragons":
Bisu, Best, Free, Jangbi, Stork, Kal
New Dragons:
Best - Ro16 MSL
Free - 100% win rate in Ace Matches
Jangbi - Ro16 MSL
Stork - Ro16 OSL
Kal - Ro16 MSL and 100% win rate in Ace Matches
Movie (New!)- Ro16 OSL
Stats (New!)- Ro16 MSL
Guemchi (New!) - Ro16 MSL
Pure (New!)- Ro16 OSL
Violet (New!)- 100% win rate in Ace Matches
Slain Dragons:
Bisu - Fulfills none of the requirements
Ramifications:
Contrary to popular belief, Bisu is no longer among the best of the Protoss race. With lackluster Proleague results and his disappearance from the latest Starleagues, Bisu has fallen from his high and mighty throne. His fall from grace is evident by the large difference between his current ELO and his ELO peak (5). A new breed of dragons (Movie, Stats, Guemchi, Pure, and Violet) have now come to take his place. One might question the values set as the dragon requirements. Yes, the requirements could have been modified so that Bisu would be included in the Dragon list. However, with slight modifications, even mediocre Protosses such as Horang2 and Backho would have been included in the list of dragons.
Closing Comments:
The analysis presented in this article may be debated by many people. The first of many arguments that may arise would be the "But Bisu is still good in PL argument!". Rest assured, while Bisu has been winning games, he has also been losing many and has yet to show spectacular Proleague results as Dragons Violet, Free, and Kal have. Each of them holds a 100% win ratio in Ace matches, proving that they are good enough to be sent out for Ace matches and are good enough to win them on a consistent basis. Bisu has yet to show these results and has even been struggling against rookies such as Haksoo and Turn. Even more damning, he recently dropped a game to Frozean (4). None of the dragons named by this study has ever dropped a televised game to Cuteangel. While a certain simplification of the dragon standards may be beneficial, it is imperative that we keep a system that does not encompass a majority of the sample size in the study.
Sources:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=109569
(1): http://www.teamliquid.net/staff/Hot_Bid/3MSL/FinalsBracket.png
(2): http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=84010¤tpage=All
(3): http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/
(4): http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/games/34931_Bisu_vs_FrOzean/vod
(5): http://www.teamliquid.net/tlpd/players/
