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MTG Draft: Self-analysis #1

Blogs > EscPlan9
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EscPlan9
Profile Blog Joined December 2006
United States2777 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-10-11 23:24:16
October 11 2014 23:19 GMT
#1
Since this is the first in a series where I analyze my MTG limited gameplay from card selections, deck building, and game play, I'll give some background first.

How I got into drafting and why I prefer it to standard
About a year ago I finally got back into Magic The Gathering (MTG) - early into Theros. I previously played way back when I was in elementary school but never studied the game or paid much attention to it strategically. When I came back, I tried out standard with a budget mono-red aggro deck but quickly realized I didn't enjoy playing the format or the deck, and did not want to pay absurd amounts of money for more competitive decks. I also was playing drafts at my local store every Friday (FNM) and enjoyed those much more. I felt so liberated from the confines of standard - most noteably, everyone was at a equal playing field and it was always different. The winner mostly came down to who was more skilled at card evaluation, cohesiveness of the deck, deckbuilding, and finally gameplay.

My beginnings as a "student" of limited and transition into exclusive limited player
As I started to move to exclusively playing limited formats (draft and sealed), I started to read articles on it and stumbled upon the Limited Resources podcast along the way. I truly became a student of the game - reading articles, listening to the podcast regularly, and critiquing my play without much attention paid to the "luck" involved on mana-flood, mana-screw, top-deck, etc. Even in games where you lost primarily from "luck", MTG is an insanely complicated game to play perfectly, so it's inevitable you can learn from some mistakes you made at some point.

Analysis from my recent FNM draft
Card selection (what happened during the draft portion)
Below is what my 40 card deck ended up like. I was not too happy with the deck - I had so few threats to close out a game. The placeholder card was a Suspension Field that I just realized my opponent accidentally scooped up at the end when I exiled his creature with it.

(edit: Looks like the image got chopped off, you can view the full image here: http://i633.photobucket.com/albums/uu51/escapeplan9/MTG/2014_10_10mardu_zps66be41f0.jpg )

[image loading]

(If you can't read the cards, the list is below)
+ Show Spoiler +

Total of only 13 creatures
-------------------------------------
3 Disowned Ancestor
1 Mardu Hateblade
1 War-name Aspirant
1 Chief of the Edge
1 Ainok Bond-kin
1 Krumar Bond-kin
1 Watcher of The Roost
1 Ponyback Brigade
1 Alabaster Kirin
1 Kheru Dreadmaw (so sad he made the cut)
1 Shambling Attendants

Total of 9 spells
---------------------------
1 Feat of Resistance
1 Suspension Field (placeholder card for reason described earlier)
1 Mardu Charm
2 Bitter Revelation
1 Bring Low
1 Smite the Monstrous
1 Dead Drop
1 Rite of the Serpent


Pack 1
Pick 1:
The rare was a foil Elephant Tusker (6/4 temur guy). I've played him and he's okay, but not first-pickable. The pack was so unimpressive, I just picked a wedge land, the Nomad Outpost as my first pick. I really like playing aggro mardu in this format.

Pick 2:
The rare was Trap Essence (not a fan of these counterspells in limited in general, and don't know where my deck is going yet). I picked the War-name Aspirant (foil yay). At this point I'm already starting to focus on building an aggressive mardu deck.

The remainder of the picks were lackluster. I picked up a bunch of decent removal spells, a dual land (boros), but very few creatures. I figured no worry I'll pick up more creatures in the next two packs. It's still early.

Pack 2 and Pack 3
These were a blur. I don't remember any good first picks. Again was mostly removal, a second Nomad Outpast, and a second dual land (boros), and very few creatures. By pack 3 I was really worried on my playable creatures and just didn't get the cards in the pack.

Card Selection Analysis
I think my card selection was fine, just didn't get enough good threats. Nothing seemed particularly open and I didn't pass any major bombs (though I do like Abomination of Godhuul, he isn't a bomb). Alabaster Kirin and Shambling Attendants along with my hefty removal package became my plan to win the games.

Deck Building Analysis
I only had 13 creatures to choose from in my colors, and originally played 12 of them. I used have an Arrow Storm in place of the 13th creature (the 4/4 zombine croc defender guy), but I always ended up siding out Arrow Storm for him just to hold down the ground. I know Arrow Storm is a crazy good card - but I only had 4 other red sources of mana, so throwing a double-red in there was awkward. I have a ton of 1 and 2 drops I really want to play on curve, and figured with my weak deck, some of my wins were just going to come from consistently of being able to cast my spells every turn while my opponent stumbles.

The only other noteworthy sideboard card was a 2nd Rite of the Serpent. Again, I had enough removal as is, and it costs 6 with double-black, so it was benched.

I play 18 lands as a default in this format unless my deck is strictly aggressive. Mine was not an aggressive mardu deck really. Only 13 creatures, and only the War-name Aspirant being somewhat aggressive. Last week in comparison I played an Orzhov warriors deck with 10/15 creatures being warriors, and a Raider's Spoils doing work. That time I did 17 lands because I only had two colors, and very few creatures costing more than 4 (not including morphs). Again, with my weak deck, I knew part of my edge would come from consistency in playing more spells than my opponent throughout the game.

Game Play Analysis
Round 1
I've played this guy before and know he is a skilled player in general. I knew it would be a tough match. He played a more aggresive Mardu deck than me, with cards such as Bloodsoaked Champion, Leaping Master, and Mardu Warchief (forget the name, the 2/3 with raid that puts a warrior token on the field).

He beat me soundly the first game with the turn 1 Bloodsoaked Champion doing a ton of work. Not much to say. I sideboarded in the dumb 4/4 defender instead of Arrow Storm. Game 2 I started off with some creatures to gum up the ground, and turn 4 Alabaster Kirin. With my batch of removal I kept clearing his board and he couldn't answer my flyer (when he tried, I had Feat of Resistance to preserve it).

Game 3 was the closest of the bunch. We were back and forth getting in a few points of damage, and made it to time with 5 turns to finish. On turn 4/5 at the end was the most significant turn in the entire game, and I blew it big time.

My big screw-up that cost me the game
He was at 3 life, with me at 9 life, and swung with about 6 creatures for an alpha strike. I figured this must be a desperation move, he has given up, or hopes I screw up on blocking. My mistake was not realizing another potential - that he had a massive pump spell (Trumpet Blast making sense for his deck - though I hadn't seen him play it before). I had Smite the Monstrous in hand, but all his creatures were 3 or less power. I assigned my blocks not thinking about a massive pump spell, and even blocked with my flyer that was going to do lethal next turn against a then 2 power creature. After he did the trumpet blast I realized I should I have taken more time to think about my blocks that turn - he didn't have any tramplers so I could have definitely assigned blocks better to preserve my win condition and make some more favorable trades. Then after combat damage was over and we cleared our creatures I completely forgot his Trumpet Blast gave a lot of his creatures 4 or more power - my Smite the Monstrous could have saved me! I was so mad at myself after that loss I slammed my fists on the table calling myself an idiot and revealing my Smite The Monstrous. I shook his hand and apologized for getting mad and told him I was just frustrated with myself for losing that game and told him "good game, nice playing you, good luck" (usual). There also was like 3 people who came over to watch us during that turn and they were giving me assurances they've done bone-headed plays like that too and forgotten about being able to use Smite the Monstrous suddenly even. I drop to 0-1.

Round 2
As I greeted my opponent he told me up front he'd only been playing for a few weeks now and this was his first draft. I was pretty sure this was going to be an easy 2-0. Not much to say here, it was a stomping. I talked with him afterwards about the game and how to improve. Like he was mainboarding Shatter and Barrage of Boulders. He wasn't aware you could sideboard between matches, he told me. At the end I asked to take a look at his deck and recommended some replacements to make his deck better. He asked me for advice on what cards to pick first in this set. I told him it isn't easy, but you generally want a bomb, evasive creature, or efficient removal as your top picks, and that in this format, if the cards are all mediocre, you sometimes just pick a dual/wedge in your colors for mana consistency. He seems to genuinely want to get better, so hopefully I see him around and see him improve. I raise to 1-1.

Round 3
I played this guy before and I know he's a better player than me and would be a tough match. The games were uninteresting and were one-sided. I lost 0-2 very quickly. He just had an aggressive mardu deck with some great removal and I couldn't stabilize either game. Game 1 I mana-flooded, though that was mostly my fault for keeping the 5-lander 1 creature 1 spell (and Dead Drop at that) on the play to start with. Game 2 I had a decent draw, but he kept putting up threats and removing mine quicker than I could stabilize. I probably made a few mistakes still in game 2, but even with perfect play, he'd win that one. I drop to 1-2.

Round 4
Once again, a familiar face. He's relatively new to MTG and limited with only a few drafts under his belt, but seems to be a decent player. All three games were close though the only interesting play I recall was in the final game where I already was cleaning up the game thanks to Shambling Attendants. As a desperation move, he triple blocked by Shambling Attendants to get rid of it finally. However, I had feat of resistance in hand and he just looks me and says "Oh no, I'm about to get blown out, aren't I?" and I just say "Yep..." and my 3/5 deathtoucher becomes 4/6 deathtoucher (and pro-green for the turn). He actually started off ahead in that game, but I clawed my way back with a risky play of casting a Bitter Revelation into another Bitter Revelation - losing 4 life and not playing another card during the turn, but filling up my hand to possibly stabilize at least. It panned out, though put me all the way down to 9 life. I never lost another point of damage from there. I end the day 2-2 and with no money cards

What I learned (level-ups, etc)
One of my weaknesses in the game is my tendency to auto-pilot some plays. I need to really consider what cards he has shown or likely to have, and take more time with declaring attacks/blocks on important turns. I also need to remember to play more cautiously when someone with 4 cards in hand just passes the turn with 6 mana up (though I am doing much better with this lately, I still occasionally fall prey to it).

Other than Round 1 where I didn't take enough time to analyze the situation and forgot my card became active, and ultimately lost the game from it, I was happy with my gameplay that night. With a deck as weak as that, I figured 2-2 and maybe 3-1 at best. I actually would have made 3-1 without the blunder in Round 1.

(This series may only be interesting to me, but I decided I really want to do this to keep track of progress in limited and keep myself responsible for the mistakes I make. Not sure how I can make it seem more interesting to others really. I hope to eventually gain the confidence to start playing limited in major tournaments like GPs sometime)

*****
Undefeated TL Tecmo Super Bowl League Champion
EscPlan9
Profile Blog Joined December 2006
United States2777 Posts
October 12 2014 03:54 GMT
#2
Card evaluation changes
This was my first time playing Shambling Attendants and Dead Drop. I only had Bitter Revelations (2 of them) to fuel my grave, but it rarely was an issue. I either had another play to make, or by the nature of limited and things dying and the amount of removal spells I had (which then go to my graveyard after cast), I was able to make great use of them.

Shambling Attendants is a good stabilizer, but I wish it had reach. Giving it first strike, flying, or reach make it much better. Also having Feat of Resistance in hand with it can lead to some great blowouts. Oh how I miss ye necrobite. I wouldn't go with a delve heavy deck just because I have Shambling Attendants. On defense it's not that much better than any other fatty wall. On offense it's an okay beater - no evasion, but it rarely will be blocked by creatures better than it. It would suck to run it into that 5/2 morph, or any other deathtoucher, like the 1/1 morph. Only 3 points of damage, and if you're against a tokens deck, it's trivial to sac a token when needed to prevent the damage. It's just a filler card and nothing I would pick highly. I used to think higher of it before playing it. It only worked well in my deck because it was just him and the flyer that were respectable threats.

Dead Drop I've played against and it has always been fantastic. Every time I played it, it was amazing. You can often construct the scenario you need for them to sac the two creatures you want after combat too. Like I attached with a flyer knowing it would be chump blocked by the 2/5 archer. I then mardu charmed it for the remaining damage, and dead dropped his remaining two creatures to clear his board.

Mardu Sharpshooter (forget the name, the 2/3 raid shocker) is so good in this format. It's a debilitating injury with a body.

Mardu Warshrieker has slightly gone up in value to me. At the worst with the raid trigger you can throw down a morph card. And there are plenty better scenarios than that.

Bloodsoaked Champion is the nuts in a Mardu aggro deck. Not surprised. That creature is all sorts of scary. Makes me want to play-test some standard orzhov warrior aggro deck.

Feat of Resistance constantly goes up in value every game I play and see it played. It isn't just a Gods Willing, it also gives a permanent +1+1 counter which in this format is bonkers for a deck with any outlast creature. Blanks removals, screws up combat math, buffs the creature, or can just be used as evasion to get through unharmed. I've chained them together to get in 9 points of damage in two turns just using it to pre-combat have unblockability by their creatures.
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Urth
Profile Blog Joined November 2007
United States1256 Posts
October 12 2014 03:55 GMT
#3
We could obviously be more helpful if we could actually see your picks somehow. The deck just looks really weak. You are playing 3 disowned ancestor, which is hardly ideal. Dreadmaw is pretty bad as you mentioned. There is a point around the middle/end of pack two where you need to start putting a lot of emphasis on your curve if you are lacking creatures. This is especially true if you are planning to be more aggressive, which it sounds like you were from your description of pick 2. It would also be helpful to note what lands you picked up.
BY.HERO FIGHTING!!!!
EscPlan9
Profile Blog Joined December 2006
United States2777 Posts
October 12 2014 04:50 GMT
#4
Yeah, I understand there isn't a good way to show what picks were available. I plan on doing this with my MTGO drafts, which actually do record which pick you made and all the cards available.

I was really disappointed with my deck. It was one of my weakest ones overall. I was happy with the removal, but that's it really. Within pack 1 I had Nomad Outpast (Mardu wedge), War-name Aspirate, Chief of Edge, and then I was hoping for more warriors. The only "good" warrior I got was the Ponyback Brigade after that though. It's another flaw of mine - getting too tunnel visioned on my initial start and not straying from it. In other formats I haven't had this problem as much, but I notice I have it more with KTK so far.
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MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
Last Edited: 2014-10-12 08:19:41
October 12 2014 08:12 GMT
#5
A full MTGO-style log would definitely be helpful. If you watch the PT:KTK coverage and the post-draft interviews in particular, there are a couple of distinct schools of thought that emerged:

1. Quickly decide on an enemy-colored pair to emphasize, then read signals to opt into one of the two available clans as a light splash. Avoid taking non-morph wedge cards in favor of mono-color alternatives.
2. Prioritize mana fixing and defensive options in packs 1 and 2, then reap the rewards by taking the wedge cards in pack 3 that no one feels comfortable picking due to their lack of mana fixing. Only converge to a wedge if nonbasic lands are being cut in pack 1.

Best of luck and keep us updated

EDIT: Also, definitely include your manabase when you post future decklists.

Does your store allow matchups between pods? You mentioned that two of your four opponents were also Mardu, which is a major red flag in terms of signals. The aggressive Mardu deck you've described trying to draft and also playing against absolutely cannot support three drafters.
Trust in Bayes.
EscPlan9
Profile Blog Joined December 2006
United States2777 Posts
October 12 2014 15:01 GMT
#6
On October 12 2014 17:12 MidnightGladius wrote:
A full MTGO-style log would definitely be helpful. If you watch the PT:KTK coverage and the post-draft interviews in particular, there are a couple of distinct schools of thought that emerged:

1. Quickly decide on an enemy-colored pair to emphasize, then read signals to opt into one of the two available clans as a light splash. Avoid taking non-morph wedge cards in favor of mono-color alternatives.
2. Prioritize mana fixing and defensive options in packs 1 and 2, then reap the rewards by taking the wedge cards in pack 3 that no one feels comfortable picking due to their lack of mana fixing. Only converge to a wedge if nonbasic lands are being cut in pack 1.

Best of luck and keep us updated

EDIT: Also, definitely include your manabase when you post future decklists.

Does your store allow matchups between pods? You mentioned that two of your four opponents were also Mardu, which is a major red flag in terms of signals. The aggressive Mardu deck you've described trying to draft and also playing against absolutely cannot support three drafters.


Thanks for all the input! I've watched a few of the pros drafting the set and it's giving me a little better idea of what to take in circumstances. Like there were times where you can get a decent creature or decent removal, and what time to pick either. The draft footage with Reid Duke was a great example of this. I should have done like him and focused more on my creature base at the start, instead of taking things like Smite the Monstrous or Rite of The Serpent (or other "playable but not great" removal) over another pick. Especially with the deck I was going with.

I didn't think the manabase for this deck was particularly interesting. I had 2 Nomad Outposts (WBR) and 2 Wind-scarred Crags (WR), and then just basic Plains, Swamps, and Mountains as needed. Never ran into mana issues. I have a system I use at the store for figuring out my mana base. I first construct my 22/23 playables as usual. Then I already have a bunch of 20-sided die with me, so I do the following:

* Place a die on a card of each color and tick it up for how many sources of it are in my deck.
* Place a die next to each card of each color corresponding to how much mana my dual/wedge lands produce. If it produces 2 colors, I tick up the die for each color, etc.
* Look at my mana curve for what needs to be played by turn 3 (non-morphs) and take that into consideration.
* Take all that information to developing my mana base and then tick the "mana producing die" die up at the end to make sure it looks right.

Regarding the "signals" neither of the two mardu players were in the same pod as me. Nor do I find it easy to read signals at my local FNM where people will take the rare "because it's a rare" (even if not worth more than a dollar), or just make some bizarre off-color picks (plus, even Marshall Sutcliffe mentioned he finds this set really hard to read signals on). There also were nearly 60 people playing overall so I never know who I'm paired against (other than, paired against someone with the same record as me). The pairing system is based on record and not pods.
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MidnightGladius
Profile Blog Joined August 2007
China1214 Posts
October 12 2014 17:06 GMT
#7
I strongly disagree with that kind of pairing system... oh well, you'll have to work with it. Varying player priorities and experience levels may also throw a wrench into analysis, but playing outside your pod means you don't have an opportunity to confirm your in-draft predictions about what archetypes are being drafted and by whom. It also introduces the Sealed-esque problem of average card quality variance between pods, but that's not so bad if the payoff matrix is flat (pack per match win, right?).
Trust in Bayes.
EscPlan9
Profile Blog Joined December 2006
United States2777 Posts
October 12 2014 17:11 GMT
#8
Yes, you win 1 pack per match. The only exception is the top 4 records at the end get an additional two packs (and not sure, but maybe everyone who goes 4-0 gets two additional packs). If there are few players showing up, with a 3-1 record, you might end up with 2 extra packs for instance due to their tie-breaker system. Lately with KTK there have always been 30+ people so that just isn't happening unless you go 4-0.
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