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The coolest guy I've ever met - Page 3

Blogs > Shady Sands
Post a Reply
Prev 1 2 3 4 Next All
~ava
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Canada378 Posts
November 03 2012 16:18 GMT
#41
All I read about was a young guy that met an old decrepit man who knew some of the most corrupt men in history. Rather than being a cool old guy, I would have considered him one of the most evil men I'd ever met.
radscorpion9
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Canada2252 Posts
November 03 2012 16:50 GMT
#42
I wish I could understand all of this stuff. Sounds so fascinating. I wish there was some way to fully categorize the validity of his various insights though. If there could just be a group of older historians, law professors, and economists, all in one room (other experts I'm forgetting too). I'd like to hear their agreements/disagreements with respect to the key points about American history, and where we should go in the future.

I feel like the Americans should reorient the machine around renewable, sustainable energy (and a sustainable economy) and technological progress. Planetary/asteroid mining operations would be fun! Today its boring...just get more jobs in the short term. No long-term vision besides green energy, which isn't really a focal point at all.
JieXian
Profile Blog Joined August 2008
Malaysia4677 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-11-03 17:39:58
November 03 2012 17:39 GMT
#43
On November 03 2012 22:47 Shady Sands wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 03 2012 22:29 JieXian wrote:
On November 03 2012 17:45 Shady Sands wrote:
On November 03 2012 00:13 JieXian wrote:
On November 02 2012 17:25 Shady Sands wrote:
As for backchannel negotiations, its like most state-to-state negotiations, but without much ideology involved. There's some learning involved

to quote K

"Western nations haven't had to conduct foreign policy on a purely non-ideological basis since the end of the First World War"


Without much ideology? What does that mean? What do they negotiate for then?

I actually have more questions because I don't get the details.


Like raw interests. He said that after Iraq no one wanted to spend national power for ideological goals like democracy or human rights anymore (not that it was like that before, but those goals always served as a useful way to orient public opinion around intervening in other countries.)

In his view, Western nations were always striving for those goals ever since the negotiations surrounding the Treaty of Versailles and Wilson's fourteen points. He also lumped fascism in with "Western political culture" and categorized World War 2 as a "German tragedy because they could have gotten all their territorial gains and reversed all the terms in the Treaty of Versailles without resorting to an expansionist, hate-fuelled ideology".

What struck me a lot about him was how, on one hand, he could see through all the BS and brutality in politics and war and yet on the other hand he retained this irrational, almost subconscious love for his country. (btw it's that personality characteristic that I used to model Luo Shuren, the overall army commander, in my war novel.)


If I'm understanding you right, shouldn't it have been

"Western nations haven't had to conduct foreign policy on a purely ideological basis since the end of the First World War"


,meaning their policies aren't tied to ideology any longer?

"German tragedy because they could have gotten all their territorial gains and reversed all the terms in the Treaty of Versailles without resorting to an expansionist, hate-fuelled ideology".


This got me really curious too. How?

Very interesting blog.

Nope. He meant it in the sense that most of Western foreign policy was, from 1918 to 1991, an extension of ideological conflict


ahhhh got it, thanks. I mixed up your answers to my questions which was what confused me.
Please send me a PM of any song you like that I most probably never heard of! I am looking for people to chat about writing and producing music | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=noD-bsOcxuU |
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
November 03 2012 17:53 GMT
#44
On November 04 2012 02:39 JieXian wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 03 2012 22:47 Shady Sands wrote:
On November 03 2012 22:29 JieXian wrote:
On November 03 2012 17:45 Shady Sands wrote:
On November 03 2012 00:13 JieXian wrote:
On November 02 2012 17:25 Shady Sands wrote:
As for backchannel negotiations, its like most state-to-state negotiations, but without much ideology involved. There's some learning involved

to quote K

"Western nations haven't had to conduct foreign policy on a purely non-ideological basis since the end of the First World War"


Without much ideology? What does that mean? What do they negotiate for then?

I actually have more questions because I don't get the details.


Like raw interests. He said that after Iraq no one wanted to spend national power for ideological goals like democracy or human rights anymore (not that it was like that before, but those goals always served as a useful way to orient public opinion around intervening in other countries.)

In his view, Western nations were always striving for those goals ever since the negotiations surrounding the Treaty of Versailles and Wilson's fourteen points. He also lumped fascism in with "Western political culture" and categorized World War 2 as a "German tragedy because they could have gotten all their territorial gains and reversed all the terms in the Treaty of Versailles without resorting to an expansionist, hate-fuelled ideology".

What struck me a lot about him was how, on one hand, he could see through all the BS and brutality in politics and war and yet on the other hand he retained this irrational, almost subconscious love for his country. (btw it's that personality characteristic that I used to model Luo Shuren, the overall army commander, in my war novel.)


If I'm understanding you right, shouldn't it have been

"Western nations haven't had to conduct foreign policy on a purely ideological basis since the end of the First World War"


,meaning their policies aren't tied to ideology any longer?

"German tragedy because they could have gotten all their territorial gains and reversed all the terms in the Treaty of Versailles without resorting to an expansionist, hate-fuelled ideology".


This got me really curious too. How?

Very interesting blog.

Nope. He meant it in the sense that most of Western foreign policy was, from 1918 to 1991, an extension of ideological conflict


ahhhh got it, thanks. I mixed up your answers to my questions which was what confused me.

np

fyi, he's not playing senior statesman so much this year. he also just revealed he's been working with zoellick and stephen walt to draft proposals on 2012-2016 foreign policy, if romney wins the election
Что?
Skilledblob
Profile Joined April 2011
Germany3392 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-11-03 18:21:35
November 03 2012 18:21 GMT
#45
On November 04 2012 01:18 ~ava wrote:
All I read about was a young guy that met an old decrepit man who knew some of the most corrupt men in history. Rather than being a cool old guy, I would have considered him one of the most evil men I'd ever met.


and that's why you are stupid.

first of all there is no good and evil the whole concept is something for fairytales.

Understanding what ideas and concept made people do the things they did allows us to form the future in a way to avoid the mistakes these people made. Labeling someone as "evil" and refusing to understand them is pure stupidity.
Glenn313
Profile Joined August 2011
United States475 Posts
November 03 2012 20:40 GMT
#46
That was interesting and brilliant. Thank you for posting.
Hey man
~ava
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Canada378 Posts
November 03 2012 23:10 GMT
#47
On November 04 2012 03:21 Skilledblob wrote:

and that's why you are stupid.

first of all there is no good and evil the whole concept is something for fairytales.

Understanding what ideas and concept made people do the things they did allows us to form the future in a way to avoid the mistakes these people made. Labeling someone as "evil" and refusing to understand them is pure stupidity.



Society does that all the time to convicted killers, what are you talking about.

Equally dumb would be to consider someone 'cool' based on who he knows/has connections with.

When said connections are Nixon, Reagan, Gorbachev, enough said in my book.
Lysenko
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Iceland2128 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-11-03 23:28:20
November 03 2012 23:22 GMT
#48
What you tell is a good story, but it boils the failure of the Soviet Union down to far too simple a picture to possibly correspond to the reality. Obviously the things you cite as the causes were major factors, but other factors were important too, such as the handing of the Soviets' political torch to the much younger Gorbachev, his interest in reform, the doors that opened for criticism of the Soviet state from its citizens, and so on.

As for the idea that Nixon conceived of a master plan to implement all of this, again, not really plausible. Bits and pieces, maybe, but the idea that doing so would directly lead to the downfall of the Soviet state (as opposed to other more likely outcomes, like a Soviet state with diminished European influence) was remarkably difficult to envision in 1968-74.

Edit: I'm currently in the middle of reading Nate Silver's recent book on statistical prediction called "The Signal and The Noise," and he dissects the various views of politicians and diplomats on the matter of the Soviet Union's downfall in the process of discussing what he calls the "hedgehog" and "fox" approach to prediction. "Hedgehogs" view the world through a filter of one or a few basic principles that they try to form into a grand theory of everything. When facts change, they tweak the theory to help it survive. "Foxes" question their own biases and take in a wide swath of information, looking for interrelationships, but don't distill the results into overarching principles. Your friend's description of the downfall of the Soviet Union sounds like a typical "hedgehog" argument, an approach which is often rewarded in academia and the media because it lends itself to being stated simply, but which either doesn't take into account or becomes more convoluted when facts which might stand against the speaker's preconceived worldview are introduced.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lysenkoism
Skilledblob
Profile Joined April 2011
Germany3392 Posts
November 03 2012 23:28 GMT
#49
On November 04 2012 08:10 ~ava wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 04 2012 03:21 Skilledblob wrote:

and that's why you are stupid.

first of all there is no good and evil the whole concept is something for fairytales.

Understanding what ideas and concept made people do the things they did allows us to form the future in a way to avoid the mistakes these people made. Labeling someone as "evil" and refusing to understand them is pure stupidity.



Society does that all the time to convicted killers, what are you talking about.


lol ok
sc2superfan101
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
3583 Posts
November 04 2012 01:40 GMT
#50
I disagree with his assessment of the Cold War and of the aftermath but he sounds like a boss.
My fake plants died because I did not pretend to water them.
Kalingingsong
Profile Joined September 2009
Canada633 Posts
November 04 2012 02:28 GMT
#51
On November 04 2012 08:10 ~ava wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 04 2012 03:21 Skilledblob wrote:

and that's why you are stupid.

first of all there is no good and evil the whole concept is something for fairytales.

Understanding what ideas and concept made people do the things they did allows us to form the future in a way to avoid the mistakes these people made. Labeling someone as "evil" and refusing to understand them is pure stupidity.



Society does that all the time to convicted killers, what are you talking about.

Equally dumb would be to consider someone 'cool' based on who he knows/has connections with.

When said connections are Nixon, Reagan, Gorbachev, enough said in my book.


as a side thought, I wonder if Gorby, Reagan, and Nixon think of each other as cool.
Dess.JadeFalcon
Lysenko
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Iceland2128 Posts
November 04 2012 02:34 GMT
#52
On November 04 2012 11:28 Kalingingsong wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 04 2012 08:10 ~ava wrote:
On November 04 2012 03:21 Skilledblob wrote:

and that's why you are stupid.

first of all there is no good and evil the whole concept is something for fairytales.

Understanding what ideas and concept made people do the things they did allows us to form the future in a way to avoid the mistakes these people made. Labeling someone as "evil" and refusing to understand them is pure stupidity.



Society does that all the time to convicted killers, what are you talking about.

Equally dumb would be to consider someone 'cool' based on who he knows/has connections with.

When said connections are Nixon, Reagan, Gorbachev, enough said in my book.


as a side thought, I wonder if Gorby, Reagan, and Nixon think of each other as cool.


Two of the three are dead...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lysenkoism
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-11-04 02:51:13
November 04 2012 02:48 GMT
#53
On November 04 2012 08:22 Lysenko wrote:
What you tell is a good story, but it boils the failure of the Soviet Union down to far too simple a picture to possibly correspond to the reality. Obviously the things you cite as the causes were major factors, but other factors were important too, such as the handing of the Soviets' political torch to the much younger Gorbachev, his interest in reform, the doors that opened for criticism of the Soviet state from its citizens, and so on.

As for the idea that Nixon conceived of a master plan to implement all of this, again, not really plausible. Bits and pieces, maybe, but the idea that doing so would directly lead to the downfall of the Soviet state (as opposed to other more likely outcomes, like a Soviet state with diminished European influence) was remarkably difficult to envision in 1968-74.

Edit: I'm currently in the middle of reading Nate Silver's recent book on statistical prediction called "The Signal and The Noise," and he dissects the various views of politicians and diplomats on the matter of the Soviet Union's downfall in the process of discussing what he calls the "hedgehog" and "fox" approach to prediction. "Hedgehogs" view the world through a filter of one or a few basic principles that they try to form into a grand theory of everything. When facts change, they tweak the theory to help it survive. "Foxes" question their own biases and take in a wide swath of information, looking for interrelationships, but don't distill the results into overarching principles. Your friend's description of the downfall of the Soviet Union sounds like a typical "hedgehog" argument, an approach which is often rewarded in academia and the media because it lends itself to being stated simply, but which either doesn't take into account or becomes more convoluted when facts which might stand against the speaker's preconceived worldview are introduced.


That makes a bit of sense. I think the school I went to, with its heavy emphasis on theory in the liberal arts, probably meant both he and I were speaking on the same "wavelength" when it came to econ/politics. It's probably why our conversations went as well as they did.

On Nixon--the bullet points I have in my notebook were that

  • Nixon--learned from Nam and BOP 1962 that military force was an inefficient way of fighting an ideological war, so set the entire US policy machine (WH/Congressional aides + State/CIA/Pentagon + Private sector) to look for other ways of winning
  • Other ways basically boiled down to outspending Soviet Union and continuing export-led growth in "borderland" states (W Germany, Japan, S Korea, Taiwan)
  • Also figured out that if armed force was a bad way to export democracy it was probably also a bad way to export communism (Brzezinski would use this later in 1979, to good effect)


Some more bullet points on Nixon before he became President--

  • Nixon believed in this so strongly he went against his own racial prejudices to push for civ rights legislation, since that would "get America's own house in order" and make America more attractive to 3rd World vs. the Russians
Что?
Kalingingsong
Profile Joined September 2009
Canada633 Posts
November 04 2012 02:51 GMT
#54
On November 04 2012 11:34 Lysenko wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 04 2012 11:28 Kalingingsong wrote:
On November 04 2012 08:10 ~ava wrote:
On November 04 2012 03:21 Skilledblob wrote:

and that's why you are stupid.

first of all there is no good and evil the whole concept is something for fairytales.

Understanding what ideas and concept made people do the things they did allows us to form the future in a way to avoid the mistakes these people made. Labeling someone as "evil" and refusing to understand them is pure stupidity.



Society does that all the time to convicted killers, what are you talking about.

Equally dumb would be to consider someone 'cool' based on who he knows/has connections with.

When said connections are Nixon, Reagan, Gorbachev, enough said in my book.


as a side thought, I wonder if Gorby, Reagan, and Nixon think of each other as cool.


Two of the three are dead...


what about when they were alive?
Dess.JadeFalcon
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
November 04 2012 02:55 GMT
#55
On November 04 2012 11:51 Kalingingsong wrote:
Show nested quote +
On November 04 2012 11:34 Lysenko wrote:
On November 04 2012 11:28 Kalingingsong wrote:
On November 04 2012 08:10 ~ava wrote:
On November 04 2012 03:21 Skilledblob wrote:

and that's why you are stupid.

first of all there is no good and evil the whole concept is something for fairytales.

Understanding what ideas and concept made people do the things they did allows us to form the future in a way to avoid the mistakes these people made. Labeling someone as "evil" and refusing to understand them is pure stupidity.



Society does that all the time to convicted killers, what are you talking about.

Equally dumb would be to consider someone 'cool' based on who he knows/has connections with.

When said connections are Nixon, Reagan, Gorbachev, enough said in my book.


as a side thought, I wonder if Gorby, Reagan, and Nixon think of each other as cool.


Two of the three are dead...


what about when they were alive?

I'm fairly certain Gorbachev and Reagan had a good rapport

As for Nixon, it seems (based on conversations with K, and reading various memoirs) that people thought he was smart and openminded (people could pitch any ideas to him and he'd listen/consider things objectively) but he was also possessed of too much ambition and insecurity (aka the Napoleon complex)
Что?
Lysenko
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Iceland2128 Posts
November 04 2012 02:57 GMT
#56
I'd be careful about assuming too much about intentions to outspend the Soviets in that period. The information visible to US leaders was often sketchy and tended to amplify the threat, so there was a tendency to outspend just to "keep up" with too-high estimates.

On Nixon's support of civil rights legislation, you have any sources on the matter of his motivation?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lysenkoism
Shady Sands
Profile Blog Joined June 2012
United States4021 Posts
November 04 2012 03:02 GMT
#57
On November 04 2012 11:57 Lysenko wrote:
I'd be careful about assuming too much about intentions to outspend the Soviets in that period. The information visible to US leaders was often sketchy and tended to amplify the threat, so there was a tendency to outspend just to "keep up" with too-high estimates.

On Nixon's support of civil rights legislation, you have any sources on the matter of his motivation?

All the above comes from notes taken during conversations with K

The thing is though they had those super-high defense spending estimates, and then they also had GDP estimates based on open economic facts which the Soviets spent a lot less time keeping hidden than military knowledge. All they had to do was put 2 and 2 together and realize that all that "capital" the Soviets were investing in their military was a waste since it was never going to be used in a way that could get the USSR a decent "rate of return"

Then Brzezinski came along and gave the Soviets the trojan horse of Afghanistan, a temptation for the USSR to "recoup" some of the costs of its military spending (to put all that expensive hardware to use), which quickly turned into their version of Vietnam
Что?
Lysenko
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Iceland2128 Posts
November 04 2012 03:14 GMT
#58
Again, this strikes me as trying to take a number of interrelated but separate events and decisions and turn them into a coherent narrative. It's worth checking out some of the other scholarly work on this period for alternate viewpoints.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lysenkoism
Niten
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
United States598 Posts
November 04 2012 20:45 GMT
#59
What an interesting man! Thanks for sharing.
Korra: "Ok, I know that I'm not good at emotions, but that's what Tenzin's gonna teach me, right? He's gonna teach me to be happy and gentle and spiritual, and the rest of that bullsh**t."
sc2superfan101
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
3583 Posts
November 04 2012 22:14 GMT
#60
On November 04 2012 11:48 Shady Sands wrote:
  • Nixon believed in this so strongly he went against his own racial prejudices to push for civ rights legislation, since that would "get America's own house in order" and make America more attractive to 3rd World vs. the Russians

I've never heard about Nixon having any racial prejudices.
My fake plants died because I did not pretend to water them.
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