EPTHow on earth, you ask? Let me go through it with you.
Quarter Finals:
MarineKing versus Life
This has the potential for being the closest possible match of the final 3 rounds. My odds have MarineKing at a 50.54% chance of advancing, so statistically it's insanely close. MarineKing has the better head to head and the better match win rate against zerg, but Life has the better set winrate against terran.
In terms of what the match will likely be, both of the players have a habit of playing off-the-wall exciting styles. However, whilst Life has more success winning individual sets with his unanticipated style of play, MarineKing has the more solid match win rate. That suggests that he has more potential for solid play and if he's able to overcome Life's ingenuity, he'll be able to prevail. The hardest match to predict, but the stats are just on the side of MarineKing, and with a recent win over Curious in the Ro16, he's looking solid to take this.
My prediction: MarineKing 3-2 Life
Taeja versus Leenock
Taeja finishing second in his group produces the weird result that whoever won group B would be cursed by having to go against him, meaning it was actually probably preferable to come second. Leenock now has an immense burden upon him if he wants to advance.
In TvZ, Taeja's only dropped 1 BoX match this year, whereas Leenock only has a 60% match win rate. Statistically, it should be a sweep in Taeja's favour, but Leenock could well bring a few surprises to the table. He's becoming known for really solid play in all his matchups and he could well simply overpower Taeja's aggressive style. However, given Taeja's insane dominance in the matchup, it looks like this won't be that much of a challenge.
My prediction: Taeja 3-1 Leenock
Rain versus HerO
This match is the result of unfortunate bracketing for everybody involved; it's the worst match up of both players and will give the viewers a PvP, known for being "unentertaining". However, given that both of the players have recently overcome major hurdles in the matchup, namely Parting and Squirtle, it could be a lot more interesting than people expect.
Until his OSL bout against Parting, Rain had zero BoX wins in PvP, and a below 50% ratio in individual sets. Given that HerO just took out Squirtle, arguably the best PvPer in the world, in the Ro16, it shouldn't be a surprise that he's the odds-on favourite for this match. It would be a pretty big surprise to see Rain win this, but for a player known for taking down seemingly better opponents and given the tiny number of games in his sample size, it could be that Rain will defy stats and go straight to a GSL ro4.
My prediction: HerO 3-1 Rain
Mvp versus Symbol
Before I ran through all the stats, I looked at the brackets and judged who I felt would win each of the matches. That gave me Mvp pushing his way to the final against Taeja and narrowly edging out a win. Now that I've looked through the stats, that doesn't seem likely. Symbol has a dominating win% in TvZ, and Mvp will really need to pull out all the stops to take him down.
Normally I'd credit Mvp's macro, especially given his outstanding TvZ at IEM Cologne, but after Symbol's Ro16 performance which showed that he just gets late game zerg, I have little faith for Mvp pulling this one off. But he is the master of build orders, so if anybody can find a way to penetrate Symbol, it'll be Mvp.
My prediction: Symbol 3-1 Mvp
Semi Finals:
MarineKing versus Taeja
Just looking at this match, I can't help but see the words "Taeja 3-0" in my head, and I'm not really somebody that credits Taeja that highly. Oddly enough, when I looked at the stats, MarineKing seems to be the favourite. MarineKing seems to have dropped his terrible TvT now, with a 35-10 record this year, up against Taeja's 41-23. Taeja may have the higher sample size, but MarineKing's raw % puts him out as the favourite.
According to MarineKing, his Ro16 losses to Mvp were purely mental, and history shows us that when MarineKing gets on a roll, he doesn't stop for much. If he hits the Semi Finals I don't seem his mentality being an issue. Instead, I think it'll help to push him over the edge to finish Taeja in a close but ultimately epic series.
My prediction: MarineKing 3-2 Taeja
HerO versus Symbol
HerO's vZ is the stuff of legend, rivalled only by Taeja's, and there's a reason for the hype. HerO has a 75% set winrate in the match-up this year, and only 2 BoX match losses. Symbol's good at ZvP, don't get me wrong, but he isn't even comparable to HerO. HerO always seems to get playoff jitters at GSL, but if he gets past Rain he may just be able to rally past the "Liquid Line" that Jinro set so long ago and make a finals appearance.
On paper, he has the match sorted. Symbol's adequate 61% match win rate in ZvP is nothign compare to the nearly 90% match win rate that HerO boasts in PvZ. He's nothing short of a monster, and despite Symbol's fantastic late game, I see no way that the TSL zerg will be able to Nydus his way around HerO's success.
My prediction: HerO 3-1 Symbol
Finals: MarineKing versus HerO
A year and a half ago predicting MarineKing in a finals wouldn't be anything remarkable. I even had a running joke where I would predict every tournament as "1st: Mvp, 2nd: MKP, 3rd: Sen". Nowadays, it seems unthinkable to even put him close to a final. He only has 1 Code S Ro8 on record, and it was in January 2011. But, according to the statistics, it makes sense to predict him in this one. He's got over his group stage hump, and if he can win his close series against Life then he has all the potential of making it to this finals.
Meanwhile, HerO was probably not somebody many people knew back in January 2011. He was just an oGs B-teamer with above average PvZ. He's been through a lot since then. Swapping to liquid, becoming their ace for a long stay before sharing the role with Taeja, grabbing a championship at Dreamhack and dominating his way to playoffs in the GSL a couple of times. But he's another player who has issues with nerves.
It probably makes sense that the statistical approach yields 2 players who on paper are brilliant but suffer losses to their own mentalities, but from an objective perspective, these guys could go all the way. Which one wins is another question entirely.
MarineKing brings to the table a 77% set win rate and 82% match win rate in TvP. HerO has a slightly less insane 65% and 72%. Their head-to-head has 2 games, none from this year. They're 1-1 with HerO taking WCG Korea and MarineKing taking the ZOTAC team invitational. Ultimately, this is good news for fantastic games, because neither of them will have mentality issues with the other. If MarineKing makes it there by beating Taeja, HerO will have a little extra motivation to avenge his comrade, but other than that it's a straight matchup.
So, who wins? Of the two fan favourites, MarineKing has a dominating statistical lead, and given that this blog is primarily about who should win, statistically, I'll predict him. But then again, he is cursed, so it won't be an easy run for him.
My prediction: MarineKing 4-2 HerO
My alternative Prediction
MarineKing makes it to the finals defeating every other player in less than 10 minutes. He gets to fight his rival, Mvp in the final match and gets the series tied up at 3-3. Just as the final game starts, it cuts to the casting desk and we see MarineKing walk past in the background. Suddenly we realise, it was never MarineKing playing at all; IT WAS BITBYBIT! Cut back to the game as 12 SCVs cruise in the Mvp's base and he GGs.
