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"He Got Lucky" and Other Myths - Page 2

Blogs > Blazinghand
Post a Reply
Prev 1 2 All
Bagration
Profile Blog Joined October 2011
United States18282 Posts
March 15 2012 16:00 GMT
#21
That's a good mentality to have.
Team Slayers, Axiom-Acer and Vile forever
EternaLLegacy
Profile Blog Joined December 2011
United States410 Posts
March 15 2012 16:01 GMT
#22
BO1 + risk = luck.

There is a luck element to any game with incomplete information. Poker, MTG, even BW. Luck is a factor. Anyone who thinks or says otherwise is just clueless.

That doesn't mean you can't minimize your risks by doing better scouting, but no matter what you do you're going to lose sometimes.
Statists gonna State.
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25562 Posts
March 15 2012 16:02 GMT
#23
Mr black just compressed my enormous blog post into 3 paragraphs without sacrificing any info. In fact, he is considerably more clear. I suppose risk is better referred to as chance than luck.
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
radscorpion9
Profile Blog Joined March 2011
Canada2252 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-03-15 16:13:56
March 15 2012 16:03 GMT
#24
So then your contention is that a well-calculated risk doesn't contain enough luck in the "risk" part to make a difference? Because a well-calculated risk is still a risk, clearly luck does play a factor. I don't think its clear yet whether all-in builds can be predicted 100% of the time.

Zerg has really poor scouting options against terran, for example. If they patrol marines and wall off the zerg can't know what's coming, unless there's a build that protects against everything. But then that's a risk to a greedy macro build the terran makes (which again the zerg can't know due to lack of scouting). It seems like luck plays a pretty big factor, even if you do your best to take a calculated risk.

But what do I know, it would probably be necessary to hear the perspective of pro-gamers here..

Edit (as a reply to Mr. Black): Also I don't think its necessarily a good thing to assume that luck doesn't exist in the game for the purposes of improving. It can be detrimental to your mental state if you continuously assume that you lose games because you failed to do enough to stop it, when in reality there was nothing more you could have done (at least which wouldn't have made you weak in another area).

Being depressed obviously has effects on your gaming, if you blame yourself for every loss 100% it might not lead to a very healthy mindset for gaming. That said obviously its not good to blame luck all the time. Like almost everything else I think the key is moderation, and being intelligent about what you can do and what you can't (but always trying to find new ways to improve if possible).
Blazinghand *
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States25562 Posts
March 15 2012 16:09 GMT
#25
I'm actually fairly unaware of Z and P scouting options, since I only play T-- I don't off-race well at all. I should perhaps add a disclaimer to this effect.
When you stare into the iCCup, the iCCup stares back.
TL+ Member
capu
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
Finland224 Posts
March 15 2012 16:21 GMT
#26
what about random stuff that happens in games e.g some crucial building is just out of reach of scan. I'd call that unlucky.
Nibbler89
Profile Blog Joined May 2011
884 Posts
March 15 2012 16:32 GMT
#27
I hate when I halt construction my scv building barracks / bunker, resume construction to try and get him to move / avoid worker harass and he won't move 3 times in a row so he just dies.
MaV_gGSC
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Canada1345 Posts
March 15 2012 16:57 GMT
#28
On March 16 2012 01:32 Nibbler89 wrote:
I hate when I halt construction my scv building barracks / bunker, resume construction to try and get him to move / avoid worker harass and he won't move 3 times in a row so he just dies.


Buff terran scvs! Amirite?

Yeah :D
Life's good :D
Dfgj
Profile Joined May 2008
Singapore5922 Posts
March 15 2012 17:08 GMT
#29
Wherever information is incomplete, there is the potential for luck because you have to make guesses.
Saechiis
Profile Blog Joined May 2010
Netherlands4989 Posts
March 15 2012 17:12 GMT
#30
Obviously there's luck involved in a game like Starcraft, but it's not nearly as prevalent as most people would make it seem. The point OP is trying to make in my eyes is that a player looking to improve you should never accept luck as a relevant factor during his play.

A player might lose getting counterattacked when he's halfway across the map and chalk it up to dumb luck. He's going to continue losing the exact same way until he acknowledges the possibility that a good player might counterattack when he moves out and starts accounting for it with his play. Same goes for a strong build that always seems to die to a specific all-in, if you tell yourself that your opponent got lucky for doing that build you're not going through the motions of preventing that loss anymore. You're accepting that you lose to "random shit" sometimes even though it's your build and lackluster scouting/ adapting that makes it random for you.

Saying someone "got lucky" is basically you withdrawing responsibility for your loss, which is the opposite of getting better.
I think esports is pretty nice.
Tortious_Tortoise
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
United States944 Posts
March 15 2012 17:14 GMT
#31
Day9 has 9 girlfriends: one for every day of the...

...

it's a day9 joke because his name has day, and nine, so like, the 9th day of something or ... something-- and since

...

the nine girlfriends... like in his name so... 9 girlfriends one for every day... day of the...

5/5
Treating eSports as a social science since 2011; Credo: "The system is never wrong"-- Day9 Daily #400 Part 3
CatNzHat
Profile Blog Joined February 2011
United States1599 Posts
March 15 2012 18:03 GMT
#32
Short concise response:
when 2 blind coinflip builds collide (build orders chosen before the game started), and one of then hard counters the other ( CC first vs 6 pool), the game was decided before it even began, and on ladder you don't know your opponent so there were no mindgames involved, the game was decided by luck of the draw.
cmen15
Profile Blog Joined December 2010
United States1519 Posts
March 15 2012 18:26 GMT
#33
On March 16 2012 01:02 Blazinghand wrote:
I suppose risk is better referred to as chance than luck.

That is a crazzy line lol, really cool thinking blog blaze!! : )
Greed leads to just about all losses.
AnachronisticAnarchy
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
United States2957 Posts
Last Edited: 2012-03-15 20:05:45
March 15 2012 20:03 GMT
#34
I agree, but I also have something to add. I will use Tribes: Ascend as an example.
In Tribes: Ascend, most weapons have a travel time. This means that weapons, as opposed to most other FPS's, take time to hit the target and thus you must lead the target when firing. Also, you have jetpacks. Oh, and you're moving at over 100 kilometers an hour most of the time. So you also need to account for your own momentum and predict where he is going to be. Furthermore, most weapons do splash damage (to reward increasing accuracy), are semi-automatic, have no clip and a reload time from hell given the fast pace of the game. Yeah. Not an easy game.
Of course, every now and then you see somebody pull an insane shot and the first thing that pops into everyone's mind is "Lucky shot!" What few people realize is that that shot wasn't luck, at least not entirely. You'd be a fool to deny that the player's skill contributed to that shot, or that people with more skill pull off those crazy shots on a more consistent basis.
To say something is luck, and nothing else, is to deny the skill that the player had that contributed, to varying degrees, to the success of his actions.
"How are you?" "I am fine, because it is not normal to scream in pain."
Wrongspeedy
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States1655 Posts
March 15 2012 20:35 GMT
#35
I'd rather be lucky than good. Good can come with dedication and a little shred of talent. Luck you either have or you don't.
It is better to be a human dissatisfied than a pig satisfied; better to be Socrates dissatisfied than a fool satisfied.- John Stuart Mill
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