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On February 01 2012 02:41 Primadog wrote:
I wonder if we can develop a statistical model to determine how far from a RNG this streakiness is. Based on my limited research, this type of streakiness do not exist in 1v1 bo3s.
Interesting start. Let me know if you get somewhere with it. One thing I was thinking, once the season finishes, is to somehow compare the number of game win streaks this season in Code S, where losers pick the maps, to past seasons. You would think that there would be more WLW (as opposed to LWW) and 2-0 Bo3s with the loser picking the maps. In fact, there have been less WLW's than usual and more 2-0's. I'm hesitant to draw any conclusions quite yet, though, since you would expect a greater skill gap in Ro32, and perhaps Bo3's in a group setting have something different about them psychologically.
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Wanted to update with some stats I've been collecting on map choice now that players get to pick.
In mirror matches, it seems that Protoss have a solid advantage on maps they pick, while TvTs are dictated more by the skill of the players. Out of 8 counter-picked games played in PvPs, the player who picked the map has won 6 (75%) times. On the other side, out of 15 TvT games, the map picker has won just 5 (33%) times.
Protoss have been successful counter-picking against Terran, winning 7/11 (64%) of the time. Of those 11 games, the Protoss picked DayBreak 8 times (73%), but went just 4-4 on it.
Zergs have picked almost exclusively Bel'shir Beach against Protoss (5/6 times), but have a losing record on it (2-3). They have also picked Bel'Shir more than half of the time in non-mirrors, 8/15 times.
Players do no seem very comfortable on the new, non-ladder maps yet. Cloud Kingdom and Metropolis have only been picked 5 times each out of 86 games.Zergs have been the most hesitant and have only picked one of the three new maps, including Entombed Valley, once out of 17 games (6%). That one time was when Lucky lost to Mvp.
Overall, map picking does not seem to be a huge advantage, with the pickers winning 45% of the time. Of course, you have to keep in mind that these are players who have already lost a game.
And here's a short preview of my yet-to-be-published Code S recap on ESFI: + Show Spoiler +
Stats
MC's PvP: There have been just five PvP's in the quarterfinals and beyond of all standard GSL tournaments. MC has played in four of those matches, and won three of them.
Rematches: All four groups in the Ro16 had rematches for the deciding fifth. Only a single group out of all eight Ro32 groups had a rematch. In those five rematches, the winner of the first match prevailed four times, but no player 4-0'd his opponent.
Hat Trick: MMA has become just the third player to make the Top8 of three Code S seasons in a row. The other two are Mvp and NaDa.
Clear the Way: This will be the first Code S Ro8 without NesTea or Mvp since Code S March 2011. It is also the first time half of the the quarterfinalists have been Protoss since March 2011. March 2011 was the last time a Protoss won a GSL. That Protoss was MC.
Repeat Performers: Three of last season's quarterfinalists made it back this season. The last time that happened was in Code S May, when Anypro, NaDa, and Sc all repeated.
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Some of the juicy tidbits from my latest Code S recap:
In all of Code S history, the player who won the first game of a quarterfinals match has prevailed 29 out of 32 times (91%). Top came back from a 0-1 deficit to win 3-1 against Genius last August, and Jinro did the same against IdrA in January. The only 0-2 comeback was when Byun 3-2'd Bomber after losing the first two games back in July of 2011. Comebacks from 1-2 deficits are even rarer, with only two ever in the Ro8. Comebacks are more common in the semifinals, with the same number of comebacks, five, in half as many games. There has never been a comeback in the finals.
MC's 0-3 loss against Genius was the first time MC has ever lost 3 PvP's in a row, and only the third time he's lost a PvP match in Korea.
This is the first Code S Semifinals to lack any of the "Big Three" - NesTea, MC, and Mvp. In fact, none of the four semifinalists has ever been to a Ro4 before.
If Genius manages to win, he would be just the third Protoss to make it to a GSL finals. DongRaeGu would be the sixth Zerg. GuMiho and aLive would be the ninth and tenth Terrans.
The only time there has been a rematch from an earlier round in a GSL finals was Code S March, when MC and July met for the second time that tournament. MC won both the first meeting, in the RO32, and the finals. Both aLive/GuMiho and DRG/Genius have already played this tournament. aLive and Genius both won the first matches.
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Sorry, been gone from this thread for a while, mostly because of real life stuff and getting discouraged about the value of stuff I was doing. Trying to get back into it though if I can. Anyway...
ESF v KeSPA:
I compiled all the KeSPA/ESF matchups that have happened so far in the OSL, the GSL, and the WCS. I excluded MLG MvP because it's format is just too different I think. As most could deduce, KeSPA has been doing very well for themselves, and not just due to Rain's awesome run through Code S. Here is the breakdown by tournament, listed in [games], [matches] from KeSPA's point of view:
Code S: 16-10 (61%), 5-4 (55%)
Code A: 37-26 (58%), 17-10(62%)
OSL : 12-12 (50%), 1-1 (50%)
WCS Kor: 40-32 (55%), 17-11(60%)
WCS Asia: 9-5 (64%), 4-2 (67%)
Overall: 114-85 (57%), 44-28 (61%)
Far and away the best performers so far for KeSPA have been Hero and Roro, 11-4, 8-3 in matches overall, for an impressive combined 71% win rate.
No ESF player has really been able to post a dominating record like that against KeSPA, mainly due to the fact that they are still fairly sparse in tournaments and so no one player has faced them very many times. The one exception of course was TLHero in WCS Korea, where he went on a 3-0 tear before having to forfeit, had he stayed in he could have conceivably beaten Roro and Rain as well, which would have completed an impressive streak.
Definitely looking forward to the tournaments starting to stabilize in terms of participants from the two camps.
Code S:
Some random stats I compiled for ESFI's preview of the finals.
Life is 14-2 in games this tournament and has not lost a single match. The only player who has done better in the new (since 2012) format has been Squirtle, who went 14-1 before losing to a 15-8 Mvp in Season 2. In fact, in all three seasons that have featured the best-of-three, double group format, the player who has lost the most games has won each time. The records of the past finalists has been-
S1: DongRaeGu (14-6) beat Genius (14-4)
S2: Mvp (15-8) beat Squirtle (14-1)
S3: Seed (15-7) beat MC (14-5)
Also, each of those three winners lost a match in the group stage, meaning that if Life wins, he would become the first player to make an undefeated run through Code S.
Mvp could set the record for most game losses accrued in a Code S championship run with a 4-3 victory, which would put him at 18-10. NesTea is still the only one to have won Code S without a single game loss (July 2011), and Mvp is the only one to have done it losing only a single game (January 2011).
Much can be made out of the fact that Life is coming into the finals having practiced nothing but TvZ for the last two rounds, but history shows that it is not that big of an advantage. Four players have gone into the Code S finals in similar circumstance, ie having played their finals matchup in the Ro8 and Ro4. Mvp did won 2012 Season 2 having playing three TvPs in a row, and MMA won 2011 October having won four consecutive terran mirrors, but MarineKing and Leenock lost in January and November of last year having played nothing but Terrans past the group stages.
Life has played against three past Code S finalists this season, including two champions: NesTea, Seed, and MarineKing. He went 8-1 against them, losing only a single game to MarineKing. In fact, every player Life has faced this season, except JYP, has made it to at least the Code S semifinals. That is cheating a little bit, since TaeJa made his first Ro4 appearance this tournament.
Also, this season TaeJa became just the third player to make three Code S Ro8's in a row, the other two being MMA and Mvp.
EDIT: Ack, I can't seem to edit this in to my OP. Do posts go uneditable after a certain amount of time? Is there any way to reverse it?
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Woot a new post. Do you know I have this blog bookmarked ? 
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Thanks :-D Might have to start a new one if I can't figure out how to edit the original post though.
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United States10328 Posts
On October 21 2012 14:58 pullarius1 wrote:
Thanks :-D Might have to start a new one if I can't figure out how to edit the original post though.
Yeah, there's a certain time period after which you can't edit the OP. Maybe PM a mod?
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EPT
