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My twitter where I tweet random factoids: https://twitter.com/#!/pullarius1
Where you can find prettier, longer pieces: http://esfiworld.com/users/pullarius1
2-20-12
Some of the juicy tidbits from my latest Code S recap:
In all of Code S history, the player who won the first game of a quarterfinals match has prevailed 29 out of 32 times (91%). Top came back from a 0-1 deficit to win 3-1 against Genius last August, and Jinro did the same against IdrA in January. The only 0-2 comeback was when Byun 3-2'd Bomber after losing the first two games back in July of 2011. Comebacks from 1-2 deficits are even rarer, with only two ever in the Ro8. Comebacks are more common in the semifinals, with the same number of comebacks, five, in half as many games. There has never been a comeback in the finals.
MC's 0-3 loss against Genius was the first time MC has ever lost 3 Korean PvP's in a row, and only the third time he's lost a PvP match in Korea.
This is the first Code S Semifinals to lack any of the "Big Three" - NesTea, MC, and Mvp. In fact, none of the four semifinalists has ever been to a Ro4 before.
If Genius manages to win, he would be just the third Protoss to make it to a GSL finals. DongRaeGu would be the sixth Zerg. GuMiho and aLive would be the ninth and tenth Terrans.
The only time there has been a rematch from an earlier round in a GSL finals was Code S March, when MC and July met for the second time that tournament. MC won both the first meeting, in the RO32, and the finals. Both aLive/GuMiho and DRG/Genius have already played this tournament. aLive and Genius both won the first matches.
2-14-12
In mirror matches, it seems that Protoss have a solid advantage on maps they pick, while TvTs are dictated more by the skill of the players. Out of 8 counter-picked games played in PvPs, the player who picked the map has won 6 (75%) times. On the other side, out of 15 TvT games, the map picker has won just 5 (33%) times.
Protoss have been successful counter-picking against Terran, winning 7/11 (64%) of the time. Of those 11 games, the Protoss picked DayBreak 8 times (73%), but went just 4-4 on it.
Zergs have picked almost exclusively Bel'shir Beach against Protoss (5/6 times), but have a losing record on it (2-3). They have also picked Bel'Shir more than half of the time in non-mirrors, 8/15 times.
Players do no seem very comfortable on the new, non-ladder maps yet. Cloud Kingdom and Metropolis have only been picked 5 times each out of 86 games.Zergs have been the most hesitant and have only picked one of the three new maps, including Entombed Valley, once out of 17 games (6%). That one time was when Lucky lost to Mvp.
Overall, map picking does not seem to be a huge advantage, with the pickers winning 45% of the time. Of course, you have to keep in mind that these are players who have already lost a game.
And here's a short preview of my Code S recap now up over on ESFI: + Show Spoiler +
Stats
MC's PvP: There have been just five PvP's in the quarterfinals and beyond of all standard GSL tournaments. MC has played in four of those matches, and won three of them.
Rematches: All four groups in the Ro16 had rematches for the deciding fifth. Only a single group out of all eight Ro32 groups had a rematch. In those five rematches, the winner of the first match prevailed four times, but no player 4-0'd his opponent.
Hat Trick: MMA has become just the third player to make the Top8 of three Code S seasons in a row. The other two are Mvp and NaDa.
Clear the Way: This will be the first Code S Ro8 without NesTea or Mvp since Code S March 2011. It is also the first time half of the the quarterfinalists have been Protoss since March 2011. March 2011 was the last time a Protoss won a GSL. That Protoss was MC.
Repeat Performers: Three of last season's quarterfinalists made it back this season. The last time that happened was in Code S May, when Anypro, NaDa, and Sc all repeated.
1-30-12
Some stats I compiled about last season's GSTL for this article:
The matches are extremely streaky, which is probably to be expected. Only 31% of game wins came from single-game wins, whereas a full 48% of all game wins came as part of streaks that were 3 or longer.
Also, more games were ended by 4-kill streaks (37%) than by 3-kill streaks, 2-kill streaks, or even single-game wins.
Finally, if you win a game in the GSTL, you are 54% likely to win the next. If you win 2 in a row, you'll win a third 63% of the time, and if you win three you have a 62% chance of finishing out the 4-kill.
One thing that annoys me in the GSTL is when a team will send out two of the same race in a row. It seems absurd and only a good idea in a very limited set of circumstances, but it happens all the time. It turns out that the second player of the same race in a row only wins 31% of the time :-/ One confounding factor here was SlayerS, since they sent out Terrans 86% of the time, which forced the statistic towards their team average. Taking into account just Group B and the Playoffs, that second player of the same race won only 2 out of 18 times (%11)
1-27-12
Match-up preparation
Did some quick calculating based on a snippet of SotG discussion from last night. When a Code S group is XYYY in terms of race distribution, and so the X has only one matchup to prepare for while the Y's have two, the X is 13/22 (59%) for making it out of the group. Interestingly, though, the X is far more likely to get 2nd place than third, something I think we can attribute to the Y's almost always being three terrans. Also, I don't think this sample is quite big enough to say anything definite.
When a group is XXYZ, so X has three matchups compared to he two of Y and Z, though, the X still makes it out 36/66 (55%) of the time. Again, because that XX is so often Terran, I think the most likely conclusion is that 2 v 3 matchups does not matter all that much. Also, none of this take into consideration that groups can often be somewhat predicted, and that it is still somewhat unlikely that a player will even play all three races in a 3-race group.
1-26-12
I compiled a list of winnings at MLGs last year to compare them to how well the players did in terms of points v winnings. The discrepancies are pretty large in some places. The top ten in points went 2, 5, 8, 3, 7, 6, 21, 4, 27,11 in terms of winnings, while the top 10 in winnings were 16, 1, 4, 8, 2, 6, 5, 3, 12, 11 in points.+ Show Spoiler [Graph] +
The 21 and 27 in the first list come from Slush and Ret, who only earned $1000 and $500 this year respectively. The 16 on the second list, of course, comes from Leenock, who managed to top the winnings of every other player with just a single win. It is worth noting that Leenock's winnings doubled all but Naniwa's, while Naniwas'a winnings doubled all but DRG's, thanks to the incredibly top-heavy prize distribution. There will be an article out on ESFI soon that mentions some of this, and I'll link it here when it is published.
1-25-12
Here are some Code S Week 1 stats featured in my Code S Recap over on ESFI:
Zergs have sucked at counter-picking maps. They've won only 3/13 games on maps they have picked against the other two races. Protoss are 7/10 and Terran are 9/16. List of picked maps. (Feel free to check my work on this one as I was really tired when I compiled it)
There was a nice separation on how different tiers of players did against the others. Ro8/Code A/UpAndDown/Special Invite went 62%/54%/36%/11% in win percentage against the other tiers. And it went 75%/67%/20%/0% in terms of getting players through to the next round.
There was only one group out of eight that had a rematch between in the final match (that awkward best-of-two). The average has been four out of eight over the past four seasons.
There have been many more comebacks in these bests-of-three compared to the Ro16 bests-of-three from other Code S seasons, at least as a percentage of 3-game-matches. Over all previous Code S seasons, the winner of the first game has won three-game-matches 60% of the time. In this group stage, they only won 44% of the time. Best guess is that, if this stat is significant, map-picking must be making comebacks a bit easier when two opponents are equally matched.
The is the fourth Code S in a row where the Ro16 is at least half Terran. By really quick estimation I'd say the chance of any one race randomly nabbing at least eight spots (assuming independence yada yada) is around 36%, so the chances of it happening four times in a row should be around 1.5%. If anyone wants to do a more deliberate calculation I'd love to see it.
Group H was just the fourth ever Code S group to have two Protoss players take first and second place. The three others were Choya/Tester in January, Tester/Anypro in March, and Huk/Puzzle in November. It has happened only once for Zerg, when Losira and Coca got first and second back in July. It has happened twenty-two times for Terran, however, largely due to the surfeit of Terran players in the GSL.
I was very interested going into the new, Ro16 group selection ceremony as to whether players would pick opponents they had already beaten in the Ro32 for their groups, since obviously they should feel confident in their chances against just-beaten opponents. The way the groups turned out, though, only two players even had the opportunity to pick players they had already beaten. Ganzi picked last season's champion Jjakji, whom he had 2-0'd in the Ro32. Oz, on the other hand, declined to pick Curious, whom he had also 2-0'd.
1-2-12
Well... that was short :-/ You'll still be able to find my stuff on ESFI though.
Anyway, a quick stat: over ALL the individual SC2 tournaments Gom has run (So All Code S, Code A, Opens and special tournaments) only 5 Protoss players have ever made any finals: MC (Sx2), Inca (S), Puzzle(A), Oz(A), and Tassadar(A).
Over 22 tournaments there have been 44 finalists. Of those, 24 have been Terran, 14 have been Zerg, and 6 have been Protoss. Or, by percentage, a 55/32/14 split, meaning that Terrans have had four times more finalists than have Protoss players.
12-9-11
Hey all! Sorry it's been so long since I updated. The reason is that I've started writing for MLG! I have a pretty regular column there called "SC2 By the Numbers" along with other stuff throughout the week. Here's a sampling of the stuff I've done this week:
Some NASL-related stats
Some stats on GSL Mirror matches
Code A stuff
and some silliness with the MLG Viewership Numbers
If you want to see more, you can just search for my real name, since the MLG search is really finicky.
I'll still try to post tidbits here or on twitter, but the really juicy stuff will go to MLG and SC Report :-)
11-1-11
Surprising fact that could have some serious repercussions in the new Code S format: Only six players have ever Top 8'd two Code S's in a row: NaDa, Anypro, sC, Losira, NesTea, and Mvp. Only NaDa has strung together three in a row.
In fact, since July, when nobody from the June quarterfinals managed to Top 8, only Mvp has managed to hit the Top8 twice in a row.
The most Top 8 repeaters were in March>May with three.
This is pretty crazy considering that only the Top 8 of Code S are safe this season.
10-31-11
Running percentages of races by round (Ro32, Ro16, Ro8, Ro4)
P: 25, 26, 30, 20
T: 40, 49, 47, 60 (!!!!!)
Z: 26, 27, 22, 18
And then for total spots (so a Terran that gets three rounds counts for 3)
Protoss: 26% Terran: 48% Zerg: 27%
So terrans account for 48% of all player*games in Code S. Even more disturbing is that terrans have taken a whopping 60% of all semifinals slots, which just feel absurd despite the relatively small sample size. Protoss and zerg still seem fairly even, except protoss are oddly better at getting to the quarter finals than zergs.
Win Percentages:
PvT: 136 - 166 (45%)
PvZ: 94 - 115 (45%)
TvZ: 152-155 (50%)
Shouldn't be all that surprising. These statistics are a tad misleading, though, due to the fact that the race of the two finalists has an inordinate effect in the winning percentages. That sounds odd to say, but I think Protoss's plight is better understood in the previous set of numbers. It should be noted, though, that Protoss has had only three winning seasons: The two seasons MC won, and, oddly, the World Champs.
Number of mirror matches by race:
Protoss: 64 (17%)
Terran: 258 (69%)
Zerg: 53 (14%)
So a whopping 69% of all mirror matches in Code S have been TvT. In the last tournament >50% of ALL matches were TvT. I'm tempted to calculate that number for the entirety of the GSL. Maybe later.
Here's an odd statistic that I've posted a few times on here: whether or not a race has lost >50 <50 or exactly 50% of its players from one round to the next. Here's the raw data:
+ Show Spoiler + B = more than 50% lost
L = less than 50% lost
H = exactly half lost
0 = only one or less of that race remained in that round
NB: only logged up until the semifinals or each round
Toss:
BLBB0
BBB00
HLLLH
BH00
LLLB
LHB
HLB0
BB000
LLB0
HHB0
B000
Terr
LBLLB
BBLLB
LLBLH
LBLL
BBB0
HLL
HBLB
LLLHH
BBH0
LLLL
HLLH
Zerg:
BBH00
LLBB0
BBHB0
BLH0
HB00
BB0
HHH0
BLB00
HLLL
BB00
LBB0
Toss: BLBB0|BBB00|HLLLH|BH00|LLLB|LHB|HLB0|BB000|LLB0|HHB0|B000
Terr: LBLLB|BBLLB|LLBLH|LBLL|BBB0|HLL|HBLB|LLLHH|BBH0|LLLL|HLLH
Zerg: BBH00|LLBB0|BBHB0|BLH0|HB00|BB0|HHH0|BLB00|HLLL|BB00|LBB0
Number of rounds in which each race had one or less player:
Protoss - 14
Terran - 2
Zerg- 14
So Terran has had at least two players in every round before the finals except for two, while the other two races have fourteen in which at most a sole representative was present.
Percentage of rounds with >2 players in which less than half were lost:
Protoss - 39%
Terran - 55%
Zerg - 29%
Terran is MORE LIKELY THAN NOT to lose less than half of its players in any given round of the GSL. This, I felt, showed that it was not simply the amount of Terran players that accounted for their success in the GSL.
Finally, an update on the Lineal Championship, which has finally moved back to Code S! We left off with Tails upsetting Mvp to claim the crown in the GSTL.
+ Show Spoiler [Lineage] +Tails
Tassadar
Keen
Seal
Genius
BboongBboong
Keen
Oz
Yugioh
10-27-11
Since this is something I've tracked from the beginning:
With the new format a player can go 5-5 from Code A an be promoted into Code S. (2-1, 0-2 in Code A; 3-2, win breaker in Up-And-Down.)
But a player can go 7-6 from Code S and be demoted to Code A! (2-0 Ro32, 1-2 Ro16, 1-2 Code A, 3-2 UpAndDown, lose breaker)
10-27-11
Now that the Up-And-Down matches are changing so dramatically, it makes sense to post some superlatives.
Most visits to the Up-And-Downs: Leenock and MarineKing at 4 apiece. Both had a promotion and a demotion, but MKP had two saves compared to Leenock's two failures to make Code S at all.
Most failures: Leenock and JYP at 2. Both players made it to the Up-And-Downs twice without being promoted. JYP is still trying.
Most Saves without Demotion: Ensnare. Ensnare is the only player currently in Code S to have avoided demotion twice. Kyrix, Inca, Genius, FruitDealer, MarineKing, and Zenio all made two saves, but were eventually demoted.
Most Promotions: Sc is the only player to have successfully toughed it out through Code A and the and Up-And-Downs twice.
Ironman Award: NaDa and Clide STILL have never been to the Up-And-Downs
Bronzeman Award: Additionally, NesTea and Ensnare have never been demoted.
Tinman Award: Polt has never technically missed a season of Code S, despite being demoted once.
Persistance Award: Polt, Rain, Mvp, Leenock, MarineKing, Sc, MC- players who made it back into Code S after being demoted.
Here's the link to the spreadsheet I used to compile these.
10-21-11
Games in Jeopardy or GiJ: count up the total number of games in which a player could have been eliminated. More should be worse, but I remember those games more and so over estimate come-backy players' skills.
+ Show Spoiler [Overly long explaination] + Essentially, you count up the total number of games in a tournament that a player could have been eliminated in, and it should give a measure of how much they have been dominating their opponents. For instance, if a players x-0's all his opponents, then he was never once put in jeopardy of elimination. If a player always goes to the last game of every match, then he will have lots of GiJs, meaning that he played many games that could have been his last.
I thought it up because I realized that somehow in my brain I subconsciously counted come-back wins for much more than solid beat downs when I tried to reckon players' relative skill, when in fact having lots of amazing comebacks is actually probably a bad predictor for long-term success.
Here is the list for all the GSL individual leagues, listed in order of (winner, loser):
+ Show Spoiler +Fruit 1 Rainbow 0
NesTea 0 MKP 4
MC 2 Rain 4
MVP 0 MarineKing 2 (S Jan)
MC 0 July 4
NesTea 5 IncA 1
NesTea 0 Losira 3
Mvp 0 Top 4
Mvp 1 MarineKing 3 (Champs)
Polt 5 MMA 6 (Super)
In this tournament MMA has risked elimination five times while Mvp was only put on notice once by teammate NesTea.
10-13-11
It's been a while, so I thought I'd update with some stats about MLG I discovered.
Breakdown of MLG Orlando groups by total prize money won this season:
Group A - $ 4,900
Group B - $10,400
Group C - $ 2,200
Group D - $ 3,700
+ Show Spoiler [By Player] +A
IdrA 1900
Haypro 0
TLO 1000
Boxer 2000
Drewbie 0
4900
B
Kiwi 3000
Bomber5000
Inca 1400
Inc 0
Puma 1000
10,400
C
Slush 1000
Ret 500
Rain 700
Machine 0
HongUn 0
2200
D
HuK 1000
Hero 700
Tyler 0
MC 2000
July 0
3,700
For a sense of how this season's earning match up to IPL3 winnings, take a look at this.
No player has Top10'd all four MLG's this season.
Only three have Top16'd them all: Slush, Naniwa, and Sjow.
Only three players have Top10'd thrice: Naniwa, Idra, and Huk.
Twice: MMA, Kiwi, Slush, Sjow, DRG
And a somewhat odd group- players who have never placed higher than their current MLG points ranking: Idra, Slush, Sjow, Huk. And, trivially, Naniwa of course. I thought this was interesting because it somehow provides a measure of consistency and growth of a player rather than pure title-winning ability.
So many former GSL stalwarts are missing this season that Tyler, who is ranked 30th in MLG points, made it into the top 16 (after Bomber and and Boxer were taken out, as they are the GSL invites) to be seeded into groups.
One last funny thing that takes a bit to explain, so I'm spoilering it:
+ Show Spoiler +
at MLG Raleigh the placements in the middle of the groups did not predict well the placement in the tournament. That is, the 6th place players clustered around 25-21 and the first place players necessarily got 1-6, but rest were kind of scattered around in there. Specifically, the 3rd place players did much better than the 2nd place players, and the 4th place players did no better than the 5th place players. To help see this, here's a list of places followed by the group placement of the player who took that place. For instance, 15:3 means that the 15th place player took third in his group. O means open-bracket.
26: O
25: 6
24: 6
23: 5
22: 6
21: 6
20: 4
19: 4
18: 5
17: 4
16: 5
15: 3
14: O
13: 4
12: 2
11: 2
10: 2
09: 2
08: 3
07: 3
06: 5
05: 1
04: 3
03: 1
02: 1
01: 1
9-28-11
So I love the idea of Lineal championships. In short, you pick an undisputed champion at some point in time, and the next person or team to beat the champion, becomes the champion. Although it doesn't really apply to most sports, people like creating them and tracking them for fun. For instance, Japan current holds the Unofficial Football World Championship, having picked it up in a friendly against Argentina. I decided to apply it to the GSL, picking FruitDealer as the first champ, and I got a pretty fun path through GSL history that covered a lot of the most fun games and upsets. In fact, a lot of title wins by obscure players marked the beginnings of very impressive runs. The current champion is Tails, who won it from Mvp in the most recent GSTL match, and defended it miraculously against NesTea. Here is the link to the spreadsheet. And here is the list, poorly formatted:
+ Show Spoiler [The List!] + Note: round listed next to player is when they lost it.
FruitDealer Ro64 Open 2 1
MarineKing Finals Open 2 3
NesTea Ro8 Season 3 3
Rain Finals Season 3 1
MC Ro16 Code S Jan 3
Jinro Ro4 Code S Jan 1
MarineKing Finals Code S Han 1
MVP GSTL Feb 2011 2
Squirtle GSTL Feb 2011 0
NesTea Ro32 Code S Mar 0
San Ro4 Code S Mar 4
MC GSTL Mar 3
MC GSTL Mar 3
Bomber GSTL Mar 0
Ryung GSTL Mar 2
Mvp GSTL Mar 1
MMA Ro 8 Code A May 2
Bomber GSTL May 3
MC GSTL May 1
DongRaeGu GSTL May 1
MMA Finals of SuperTourney 5
Polt Ro16 Code S July 2
Bomber Ro8 Code S July 3
Byun Ro4 Code S July 0
LosirA Finals Code S July 0
NesTea Ro32 Code S Aug 1
MMA Ro16 Code S Aug 0
Polt Ro4 Code S Aug 1
TOP Finals Code S Aug 0
Mvp GSTL Season 1 3
Tails! Current Champion
+ Show Spoiler +- FruitDealer was the first champ, obviously.
- From there, every single GSL match or game counts as a bout, including the the GSTL, special invite tournaments, and Code S groups.
- GSTL and Code S group games are counted as a Bo1 match.
- EXCEPT when there is one of the awkward Best-of-2's in the group stage. There I consider it literally a Best of 2 where the winner is the last one to win. This only came up once when Killer beat Polt in groups after his SuperChamp victory, but Polt beat him back to advance. Killer did not get the title for that. I mostly made this rule to encourage him to win Code S.
- I know it's lame that a single GSTL game counts for as much of a bout as a Bo7 Code S championship, but there weren't any fair ways I could think to do it that weren't very complicated.
- Suprisingly to me, almost every "champ" seems very qualified. The only players that have not made a QuarterFinals were DongRaeGu, Squirtle, and, the current champion, Tails.
- MC has the most aggregate title defenses at 10. MMA is second at 7. Mvp/Bomber tied for third at 6.
- MC also has the most title captures at 4. Bomber/MMA/Nestea/Mvp all have 3.
- The title changed hands five times in GSTL March, and MMA won it back twice.
- MMA had the longest title defense streak when he carried it from GSTL to the finals of the SuperTournament
9-19-11
Here's an update of the Champion's Curse. Listed are the rounds that the immediately previous champion made it to in each tournament. + Show Spoiler [I excluded the World Champs because] + A) It was a 16-man invite-only and B) The winner didn't participate in the next season's Code S. The previous winner, MC, did make it to the Ro4 though.
Ro8 - NesTea
Ro16 - MC
Ro32 - Mvp
*excluding World Champs*
Ro32 - MC
Ro16 - NesTea
Ro16 - Polt
Ro16 - NesTea
Lining them up as before we get {32,32,32,16,16,16,16,8} or {5,5,5,5,4,4,4,3}.
9-18-11
So I was looking at whom NesTea tends to lose to in the GSL (trying to figure out if he'll make it through groups this season :-p), and just like with any other NesTea statistic, the numbers are pretty impressive:
+ Show Spoiler +Open 1: LiveForever Ro8
Open 2: Won
Open 3: Rain Ro2
Jan: Mvp Champion
Mar: San Ro4 and Ensnare Ro16
Champs: Dimaga Ro8
May: Won
Super: TOP Ro4
July: Won
Aug: Mvp Champion
I don't think I've had enough stats to properly approach these numbers, but as a set of data we have that the person who beat him got to the following rounds 16,8,8,4,4,2,1,1,0,0,0 - which the zeros meaning that nobody beat him that tournament. Obviously, the median of this set is a 2, meaning that in some sense the average person who beat him got at least to the finals of the tournament. Excluding the zeros we have 16,8,8,4,4,2,1,1, where the corresponding statistic just says semifinals instead of finals. As powers of two we have 4,3,3,2,2,1,0,0 - the average of which is 1.9, meaning, again, that the average person who beats NesTea in a GSL gets to at least the semifinals.
I think those last two statistics are probably the more honest ones, but whatever the case they all agree that beating NesTea is quite a feat. In fact, the last time NesTea's victor lost before the semifinals was the World Championships. So if the mighty Group B manages to conquer the 3-time champ, look for whoever managed to take NesTea down to go deep into the tournament.
9-14-11
Here are some stats about exactly how many terrans we see in the GSL
In total there have been 40 GSL semifinalists. Of those, a whopping 23 have been terran. 9 have been protoss, and 8 have been zerg. That gives us a 57%/22%/20% split. Here are the stats for all the rest of the RoX's given as  / / . If you want to play with the data also, here is the spread sheet I compiled: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AoUaXp1u73w8dC1sU19oMnNtM2RwSk5hVFREX3VILUE&hl=en_US
Total:
236/389/231
28%/45/27
RO64:
75/103/77
29%/40/30
RO 32:
82/154/85
26%/48/26
RO16:
44/73/43
26%/45/27
RO8:
26/36/18
33%/45/23
RO4:
9/23/8
22%/57/20
9-13-11
I looked for this stat, but couldn't find it, so here it is rather belatedly. There were fifteen players who played in all three Open seasons of the GSL:
+ Show Spoiler +
Check
Clide
FruitDealer
Genius
HongUn
Hyperdub
IdrA
jookTo
Maka
MC
NesTea
Polt
RainBOw
TheWinD
Zenio
9-8-11
Now there are only seven players who have survived in Code S since the first season: Nestea, HongUn, Ensnare, Zenio, Genius, Nada, and Clide. Of those Zenio, Genius, and Ensnare have all been sent to the Up And Downs twice, which is a pretty strong predictor for falling to Code A. So if I had to guess who falls next season, I'd put my money on them.
The only two original Code S players to have avoided the Up And Down matches altogether are Nada and Clide. Although I guess Idra technically has as well.
Here's a list of the current Code S players and which seasons they made it in:
+ Show Spoiler +Original Code S:
Nestea
HongUn
Ensnare
Zenio
Genius
Nada
Clide
Jan 2011
July
Top
Polt II - Wildcard
March 2011
Huk
Virus
Killer
SuperNova
Losira
May 2011
Keen
Coca
Alive
MVP II
Bomber
July 2011
Puzzle -Code A Champ
Ryung
Happy
Noblesse/Cute
Asd/Nuclear
MMA - MLG Anaheim
August 2011
Ganzi- Code A Champ
Leenock II
Jjakji
MKP II
Taeja
DongRaeGu - MLG Raleigh
9-5-11
Finally settled into my new place and catching up on this season. Quick update of cumulative ROx appearances.
+ Show Spoiler +
Finals
MKP 3
MVP 3
Nestea 3
MC 2
Fruit 1
Rainbow 1
Rain 1
July 1
Inca 1
MMA 1
Polt 1
Losira 1
Top 1
RO4
MKP 4
Nestea 3
MC 3
MVP 3
HongUn 2
Rainbow 2
Jinro 2
Polt 2
TOP 2
San 2
July 2
MMA 1
LiveForever 1
Fruit 1
Ensnare 1
Boxer 1
Rain 1
Anypro 1
Nada 1
Inca 1
SC 1
Byun 1
Losira 1
RO8
Nestea 5
HongUn 4
MKP 4
Nada 4
MC 3
Top 3
MVP 2
Fruit 2
Inca 2
Rainbow 2
Jinro 2
Tester 2
Choya 2
SC 2
anypro 2
Genius 2
Polt 2
July 2
Losira 2
Ryung 2
LiveForever 1
Maka 1
Trickster 1
Ensnare 1
Alicia 1
Line 1
Kyrix 1
Boxer 1
Zenio 1
Rain 1
Idra 1
San 1
Lyn 1
Killer 1
MMA 1
TheBest 1
CoCa 1
Byun 1
Bomber 1
Keen 1
Huk 1
Of the eight quarter finalists, 6 had been there before, and 5 had been there precisely once before. This was the third RO8 appearance for Top, leaving just four players with more appearances than him. (Note: I didn't count the 16-man World Champs RO8 appearances, which is how MVP has more semifinals than quarterfinals.)
Every single player in the semis had made it there before, something that hasn't happened since the World Championships. MVP now ties the other two exemplar at 3 semifinals, with the King of Kong himself MKP leading at 4. Of the ten original Code Sers that have never been demoted, only one made it into the RO8 this month, and none made it into the semifinals. In fact of the four semifinalists, three of them made it into their current Code S in January. (Polt is an odd case though)
For the fifth time in a row, the Code S finals consists of a new finalist and a repeat-finalist. Fun fact: Each 64-man GSL has had two new finalists; each 16-man has had two repeat-finalists; and every 32-man tourney has had one of each. So far the repeat finalists are 3-1 in Code S finals, but the only newcomer to win was MVP himself in the very first season of Code S, so perhaps Top still has a chance. But the following still holds true: no former GSL champion has ever lost in a GSL finals. If anyone has had a chance so far, though, Top maybe has the best as the #5 TvTer goes up against #2 this Sunday.
This will be the first Code S finals between two players who qualified through Code A.
7-28-11
So we are finally at the point where it is mathematically possible for all 32 of the original Code S players to have been replaced, and 2/3 of them already have been. Exactly 10 from Code S January remain: Nestea, HongUn, MC, Ensnare, Zenio, Kyrix, Genius, Nada, Clide, not including MVP because he fell out and came back in.
A list of the original 32 and the season they were demoted in:
+ Show Spoiler +Nestea
HongUn
MC
Ensnare
Zenio
Kyrix
Genius
Nada
Clide
Tester
Inca 4
Anypro 4
Fruit 4
MarineKing 4
RainBow 3
TheWind 3
Check 3
Jinro 3
San 3
Boxer 2
Choya 2
TheBEst 2
Hyperdub 2
MVP 2
Idra 2
LiveForever 1
Leenock 1
Rain 1
Maka 1
Polt 1
JookTo 1
LegalMind 1
A list of the current Code S players, and the season they made it in:
+ Show Spoiler +Original Code S:
Nestea
HongUn
MC
Ensnare
Zenio
Kyrix
Genius
Nada
Clide
Tester
UpAndDown Jan 2011
July
Byun
UpAndDown March 2011
Huk
Virus
Killer
Alicia
SuperNova
Losira
UpAndDown May 2011
Keen
Coca
Alive
Violet
MVPII
Bomber
UpAndDown July 2011
Code A Champ- Puzzle
Ryung
Happy
Noblesse/Cute
Asd/Nuclear
7-26-11
Just wanted to update the list of cumulative RO8, RO4, and RO2 appearances. One interesting thing to note- no player who has previously lost a finals match has ever won one, and no player who has previously won a finals match has ever lost one. It sounds obvious on the surface, but is a bit strange to think about.
+ Show Spoiler + Appearences
RO8
Nestea 5
HongUn 4
MKP 4
Nada 4
MC 3
Fruit 2
Inca 2
Rainbow 2
Jinro 2
Tester 2
Choya 2
SC 2
anypro 2
Top 2
Losira 2
LiveForever 1
Maka 1
Trickster 1
Ensnare 1
Alicia 1
Polt 1
Line 1
Kyrix 1
Genius 1
Boxer 1
Zenio 1
Rain 1
Idra 1
MVP 1
San 1
July 1
Lyn 1
Killer 1
MMA 1
Ryung 1
TheBest 1
CoCa 1
Byun 1
Bomber 1
RO4
MKP 4
Nestea 3
MC 3
HongUn 2
Rainbow 2
Jinro 2
MVP 2
San 2
MMA 1
LiveForever 1
Fruit 1
Ensnare 1
Boxer 1
Rain 1
July 1
Anypro 1
Nada 1
Inca 1
SC 1
Polt 1
TOP 1
Byun 1
Losira 1
Finals
MKP 3
Nestea 3
MC 2
MVP 2
Fruit 1
Rainbow 1
Rain 1
July 1
Inca 1
MMA 1
Polt 1
Losira 1
7-23-11
An update on how strangely zerg is doing in the GSTL:
Over all GSTL games so far, including the three preseasons, Zerg is 42-50. (I forget if I included mirrors or not :-/). Not so bad. However, over half of all zerg wins are accounted for by just three of the twenty-four players- DongRaeGu, Losira, and BboongBboong. These three players together are 24-8, while the entire rest of the zerg pool is a miserable 20-42. The only other zerg in the GSTL who has a winning record is Nestea at 2-1.
Records:
+ Show Spoiler +Dong 11-1
Losira 8-4
Bboong 5-3
24-8
July 3-4
Nestea 2-1
Curious 2-3
Min 2-3
9-11
Seal 1-1
Zenio 1-1
True 1-1
Monster 1-1
Revival 1-1
Sheth 1-1
Sirius 1-1
Kyrix 1-2
Line 1-2
Check 1-2
Leenock 1-4
11-17
Horror 0-1
Cezanne 0-1
Junwi 0-1
Golden 0-1
Lucky 0-1
Violet 0-2
tgun 0-2
CoCa 0-2
Fruit 0-3
0-14
20-42
7-12-11
I posted earlier how protoss seems to be doing exceptionally poorly in Code A for some reason. Something else I found to support that: in the first three seasons of Code A, there were a total of two PvPs, both of which happened randomly in the first round. Compare that to seven ZvZs and a whooping 20 TvTs. This round, though, we will have had four PvPs for a 600% increase over the average. I haven't worked out how many mirrors we should expect given a certain race's representation, but less than one a season seems a little extreme.
7-9-11
I felt surprised the other day at how many players still have a >20 percentage point between their best and worst winning percentages in the different matchups. So I did some extremely sketchy math to try to figure out exactly how likely that is if, say, a player has played exactly ten matches in each matchup. Turns out it is actually more likely than not, which was a tad surprising to me. If I can find the paper I worked on, I'll post the math here.
7-1-11
Under the old system of up and down matches, you could actually go from Code A to Code S with a losing record (not including the qualification matches).
Code A:
RO32 2-1
RO16 2-1
RO8 0-2
UpandDown:
Match 1: 0-2
Match 2: 2-1
for a total 6-7. In fact July almost did exactly this in his run to Code S, except he won his last match 2-0 to give him a 6-6 record. With the new groups-of-five system, this will no longer be possible, as you will have to at least 3-2 to make the top2 in your group. Whether or top you can advance with an even record will depend on how tiebreakers will work, and whether it will be a true round-robin group format.
6-30-11
As of today, DongRaeGu and Losira account for half of ALL zerg wins in the GSTL
+ Show Spoiler +DongRaeGu 8
Losira 7
July 3
BBoongx2 3
Kyrix 2
Curious 2
Min 2
Zenio 1
Sheth 1
Leenock 1
Nestea 1
For the first three seasons of Code A, in PvT protoss went 16-42 (%27.6) in maps and 5-19 (%20.8) in matches. Cf. Code S over the same time: 39-33 (%54.1).
+ Show Spoiler +Code A
Jan 4-15 (1-7)
Mar 6-8 (3-3)
May 6-19 (1-9)
Tot 16-42 (5-19) 27.6% (20.8)
Code S
Jan 8-15
Mar 18-8
May 13-10
Tot 39-33
6-18-11 Sports!
It's been odd to me that the GSL finals have been almost exclusively bad, so I went to the three major US series sports to see what the trends are there, and found that they are very different. All stats are from 1950 on, since that's when the NBA started.
NHL Stanley Cup:
Has had just 14 4-3 series with 15 4-0 sweeps in the past 62 years.
Once went 15 years without a 4-3 series ['72-'86]
Once had four sweeps in a row ['95-98]
NBA:
17 4-3 series but 8 sweeps.
Went 10 years without a 4-3 series ['95-04], and the next-longest drought was 5 years.
Has never had two consecutive sweeps.
MLB World Series:
24 4-3 Series and 12 sweeps
Currently in its longest 4-3 drought at 8 series; before this one, the next longest was 4.
Of the seven sweeps since 1980, all but one have come in pairs.
5-19-11 PreSuperTournament
Of all the players in the tournament, only nine players have a winning record in every match-up:
MC, NesTea, sc, Nada, TOP, Bomber, MVP,MMA, MarineKing. It is worth noting that seven of the nine are Terran, and the other two are former champions. NB: I used the TLPD and "All Leagues" in checking this.
Bracketology
In order, here's how the eight octets stack up in terms of combined winning percentage
+ Show Spoiler +A1 - 61
D2 - 58
C1 - 58
B2 - 56
c2 - 54
A2 - 51
B1 - 48
D1 - 45
The notable octets are
+ Show Spoiler +A1a - 70
D2b - 63
D1a - 45
D1b - 45
B1a - 44
The only two groups with >60% winning were very much boosted by the two stars Nestea and MVP. No foursome consists of entirely winning or losing players. The closest to an entirely winning group is D2b with only the 28-30 Cezanne holding them back. The closest group to entirely losing is D1a, as just the 22-21 Jinro has a winning record.
All the data:+ Show Spoiler +Using All Leaugues on TLPD
A1
MVP 76-29
Creator 7-7
Ganzi 12-12
Butter 4-9
128-57---70
Check 24-34
Supernova 24-17
MMA 25-14
Lyn 17-17
90-82------52
218-139 ----61
A2
Inca 27-18
Ryung 23-18
Violet 6-3
TheWind 14-17
70-56 ------- 56
Rain 30-30
Keen 13-12
JookTo 10-18
anypro 22-24
75-84 ------ 47
145-140 -------51
B1
Trickster 21-22
YuGiOh 13-10
TheBest 10-22
Jjun 7-10
51-64------44
Genius 18-19
BoxeR 19-18
Min 5-6
July 30-26
72-69 -----51
123-133 48
B2
HongUn 30-29
Moon 16-15
RevivaL 6-8
Ensnare 37-24
89-76 ------- 54
FruitDealer 40-27
Ace 18-24
Squirtle 26-16
MarineKing 64-39
148-106 ------58
237-182 -----56
C1
Clide 20-18
RainBOw 31-28
aLive 31-21
Leenock 21-24
103-81 56
Byun 37-31
LegalMind 9-18
Alicia 16-10
MC 56-22
118-81 ----- 59
221-162 58
C2
sC 38-26
Hyperdub 20-25
Maka 35-27
Noblesse 11-12
104-90 54
Polt 44-31
LosirA 39-28
HuK 9-12
San 18-18
110-89 ----55
214-179 54
D1
Jinro 22-21
Line 4-10
Kyrix 19-22
Banbanssu 14-20
59-73 ----45
Junwi 5-15
Virus 13-17
CoCa 9-10
NaDa 30-22
57-64 ----- 45
116-137 -----45
D2
TOP 42-25
August 13-17
Zenio 35-37
Choya 21-24
111-103 52
Killer 26-23
Bomber 44-14
Cezanne 28-30
NesTea 62-27
160-94 63
271-197 ----58
5-18-11 (GSTL 3)
In all the matchups of the GSTL, all the teams that played each other only had, in total, seven matches between players in the May GSL Code S. For the finals, neither team has players that played each other. + Show Spoiler +oGs
v Prime 2-3
v Zenex 1-0
v ST 3-1
v fOu 0-1
v Slayers 0-2
v TSL 5-1
v mVp 2-0
Prime
v oGs 3-2
v Zenex 0-1
v MVP 1-0
v Slayers 0-1
v TSL 2-2
v ST 2-2
v fou 1-2
fOu
v ST 1-0
v Zenex 1-0
v oGs 1-0
v Prime 2-1
Star Tale
v fOu 0-1
v oGs 1-3
v Zenex 0-1
v Prime 2-2
v TSL 1-0
Zenex
v oGs 0-1
v fOu 0-1
v ST 1-0
v Prime 1-0
MVP
v Prime 0-1
v oGs 0-2
Slayers
v OGS 2-0
v Prime 1-0
TSL
v Prime 2-2
v ogs 1-5
In the entire tournament, the team that had the better record in May Code S always advanced with the one exception of SlayerS over fOu in the semifinals+ Show Spoiler +
fOu 10-4 71%
IM 18-9 67 %
Slayers 3-2 60%
oGs 25-25 50%
MvP 2-2 50%
TSL 12-13 48%
ST 5-7 42%
Prime 9-14 39%
Zenex 2-4 33%
Fox 1-2 33%
Liquid 1-4 20%
HoSeo 0-2 0%
4-26-11 (GSL May RO32)
Zergs have lost half or more of their players in 16 out of 19 (84%) tournament rounds (I excluded rounds in which there is exactly 1 or 0 zergs left.) Cf 13 of 21 (61%) for Protoss and 13 of 26 (50%) for Terran.
It is also worth noting that every non-finals round of the GSL has had two or more terrans except the semis of March. Eight rounds have had one or less zerg.
This round of Code S was the first to see every race lose exactly half of their players.
+ Show Spoiler +Lost big B
Lost little L
Exactly half H
<2 0
Toss:
BLBB0
BBB00
HLLLH
BH00
LLLB
LH0
H
Terr
LBLLB
BBLLB
LLBLH
LBLL
BBB0
HLL
H
Zerg:
BBH00
LLBB0
BBHB0
BLH0
HB00
BB0
H
BLBB0BBB00HLLLHBH00LLLBLH0H
LBLLBBBLLBLLBLHLBLLBBB0HLLH
BBH00LLBB0BBHB0BLH0HB00BB0H
So far in Code S, players who were in the very first season went 3-14 (21%) against players who have since qualified through Code A. The only old schoolers to take games off the up-and-comers were Genius, Fruit, and Inca
In total, Code S'ers went 22-33 (40%) this group stage, while qualifiers went 20-9 (69%)
+ Show Spoiler +Code S original:
Polt 2-1
MC 1-2
TheWind 0-2
RainBOw 0-3
Genius 2-0
Kyrix 1-2
HongUn 0-2
Nada 2-1
MKP 1-2
Zenio 0-3
ALL GROUP E 5-5
Fruit 2-0
Check 0-2
Anypro 2-1
Kisu 1-2
Ensnare 0-2
Rain 1-2
Inca 2-1
22-33 (40%)
From Code A:
SuperNova 2-0
sC 3-0
TOP 2-1
Byun 1-2
Losira 2-1
Alicia 3-0
Killer 2-1
Lyn 1-2
Virus 2-0
July 2-0
Huk 0-2
20-9
GSL finalists so far have only a 36% chance of having a winning record the next season
+ Show Spoiler +OPEN 2:
Rainbow 10-6 Win!
Fruit: 2-2 Draw!
Open 3:
Nestea 8-5 Win!
MKP: 5-5 Draw!
Jan:
Rain 1-2 Lose!
MC 3-2 Win!
Mar:
MVP 1-2 Lose!
MKP 1-2 Lose!
World Champs
MC 7-3 Win!
July 3-3 Draw!
May:
MKP: 1-2 Lose!
MVP: N/A N/A!
In 15/28 (54%) groups so far, there have only been 5 games, meaning only a partial round robin and two players playing each other twice. I personally think this deserves some consideration, since this is by far the worst scenario. Where it is especially bad is when there is one great player, two mediocre players, and one terrible player in a group. Good player beats mediocre 1; mediocre 2 beats terrible player; good player beats terrible player; this leaves mediocre 1 having to 2-0 mediocre 2 simply by virtue of where he was in the (unseeded) bracket. This is a serious problem, and is the very definition of a bad tournament structure.
Of the remaining games, 9 (32%) were fully transitive (each player beat each person ranked lower than him) and 4 (14%) were the weird double-tie variety.
+ Show Spoiler +Partial Group P
Transitive T
Breakers B
Jan RO32
PTPBTPPB
RO16
PTTP
MARCH RO32
PTPTTBPB
May RO32
PTPTPPPP
P 15
T 9
B 4
Since knocking TLO out of the first GSL Open, Hyperdub had never faced an opponent with <50% vT in any GSL match until his first opponent in this month's Code A.
Despite fairly different starting distributions, the three seasons of Code A so far have been very consistent in the race distribution of the RO16. Jan was 3/8/5 P/T/Z, while both March and May have been 3/9/4.
Due to the differences in starting distribution, though, this give the races very different winning percentages in the first round. Protoss is just 9/28 (32%) at getting through. Zerg has gotten 13/30 (43%) into the second round, while Terrans have managed to defeat their first round opponents a whopping 26/39 (67%) of the time.
+ Show Spoiler +Protoss
3/9
3/6
3/12
Terran
8/14
9/12
9/13
Zerg
5/9
4/14
4/7
 
|
Sorry if I'm mistaken, but you're telling us that
1) Code S players have started failing.
2) Up-coming players will overtake them.
3) SCII is a dynamic and ever-changing game, since the ones we considered to be the best are now dropping.
4) The scene is gonna get messy as time passes by.
I kinda like that actually, but we need a bonjwa for one race at least so that we can move on with strategy. Everything feels a little... unpolished.
|
On April 27 2011 11:07 pullarius1 wrote:
I'm terrible at labeling (these some courtesy of New Text Document (18) :-/
Wow dude, that's ridiculous. Your desktop is your home, keep that shit in order! 
|
On April 27 2011 11:42 IntoTheheart wrote:
Sorry if I'm mistaken, but you're telling us that
1) Code S players have started failing.
2) Up-coming players will overtake them.
3) SCII is a dynamic and ever-changing game, since the ones we considered to be the best are now dropping.
4) The scene is gonna get messy as time passes by.
I kinda like that actually, but we need a bonjwa for one race at least so that we can move on with strategy. Everything feels a little... unpolished.
Pretty much. It's been a constant trend since the first GSTL, and I feel everyone has noticed the Champion's Curse.
|
I don't think there is a successful enough or skilled enough player in the proscene right now to claim the bonjwa title. The closest for each race seems to be MVP, July and MC... but MC is in up and downs, MVP is coming up from code A and July isn't there yet.
I'd say that 3) that IntoTheHeart made is just so valid, it is an ever-changing game, but I feel right now it is very messy. In 12 months time, I can see the metagame kind of evening out. If we're lucky in 2 years time the metagame will be solid. But that being said HoTS and (whatever the Toss expansion is called) will change dynamics significantly depending on what units they produce.
Also,
Hopefully we won't be waiting for 12 years to get Starcraft 3 :D.
|
On April 28 2011 01:30 pullarius1 wrote:Show nested quote +On April 27 2011 11:42 IntoTheheart wrote:
Sorry if I'm mistaken, but you're telling us that
1) Code S players have started failing.
2) Up-coming players will overtake them.
3) SCII is a dynamic and ever-changing game, since the ones we considered to be the best are now dropping.
4) The scene is gonna get messy as time passes by.
I kinda like that actually, but we need a bonjwa for one race at least so that we can move on with strategy. Everything feels a little... unpolished. Pretty much. It's been a constant trend since the first GSTL, and I feel everyone has noticed the Champion's Curse.
The champion's curse makes sense though. If someone wins a GSL, what are you going to do? You are going to analyze their play until your bleeding through your eyes. They start becoming very predictable until they start changing up their gameplay again.
|
Updated with a couple GSTL facts
|
I love sports trivia! Keep up the good work.
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Updated with some Super-Tournament bracketology!
|
I wish you made this a new blog post so I can 5-star it again...
|
Added some random championship stats.
|
Thanks for the newest update. So will you conclude that the drought of competitive finals in GSL a statistical anomaly? How much in your personal opinion can this be blamed on the format, as oppose to things inherent to player skill or the nature of SC2? How does it compare to BW?
|
Sorry for not responding, Prima- I've been pondering :-) I was in the middle of getting similar stats for BW, but I got distracted.
On another, crazy note: For the first three seasons of Code A, in PvT protoss went 16-42 (%27.6) in maps and 5-19 (%20.8) in matches. Compare this to a 39-33 (54.2%) in Code S. Statistical anomaly, or maybe evidence that even between A and S, difference balance exists at different levels?
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I finally got around to looking at all the OSL and MSL final score. I entered them into the Liquipedia pages for the tournaments, but they are still in limbo at the moment. Obviously BW isn't completely comparable to the GSL because it's a BO5 format vs BO7, but one interesting thing I noticed that there were precisely three back-to-back sweeps total in the two tournaments, and two of them happened in the first year of each tournament. (I didn't go through and check for back-to-back OSL MSL sweeps though). Perhaps the past two tournaments have just been the GSL getting its double sweep out of the way.
For a fairly useless statistic, I like calculating winners v losers sometimes.
For the GSL, winners are 32-8 against losers for winner's percentage of %80 (minumum %57
For the OSL, the comparable statistic is 96-36 for %72 (minumum %60)
and the MSL, 78-28 for %73
174-64, 73% combined
The numbers don't seem that different, but if you scale them based on how close to %100 they are from the minimum they could be (BW winners have to win at least 60% of the time, whereas SC2er champs only have to win 57% of the time) you get:
BW: [73-60]/[100-60] = .325
SC2: [80-57]/[100-57] = .535
and it seems like the winners in SC2 trounce the losers much more. Of course, this is a very odd statistic, and I don't have a good feeling for what sort of disparity should be considered significant, or whether it's even worthwhile compare BO5s and BO7s at all, since they are such discrete affairs which such different possible outcome. Also, the sample size for SC2 is still so small- it's certainly too early to make any generalizes about the game past "GSL finals have sucked hardcore."
|
Under the old system of up and down matches, you could actually go from Code A to Code S with a losing record (not including the qualification matches).
Code A:
RO32 2-1
RO16 2-1
RO8 0-2
UpandDown:
Match 1: 0-2
Match 2: 2-1
for a total 6-7. In fact July almost did exactly this in his run to Code S, except he won his last match 2-0 to give him a 6-6 record. With the new groups-of-five system, this will no longer be possible, as you will have to at least 3-2 to make the top2 in your group. Whether or top you can advance with an even record will depend on how tiebreakers will work, and whether it will be a true round-robin group format.
|
I posted earlier how protoss seems to be doing exceptionally poorly in Code A for some reason. Something else I found to support that: in the first three seasons of Code A, there were a total of two PvPs, both of which happened randomly in the first round. Compare that to seven ZvZs and a whooping 20 TvTs. This round, we will have had four PvPs for a 600% increase over the average. I haven't worked out how many mirrors we should expect given a certain race's representation, but less than one a season seems a little extreme.
|
An update on how strangely zerg is doing in the GSTL:
Over all GSTL games so far, including the three preseasons, Zerg is 42-50. (I forget if I included mirrors or not :-/). Not so bad. However, over half of all zerg wins are accounted for by just three of the twenty-four players- DongRaeGu, Losira, and BboongBboong. These three players together are 24-8, while the entire rest of the zerg pool is a miserable 20-42. The only other zerg in the GSTL who has a winning record is Nestea at 2-1.
Records:
+ Show Spoiler +Dong 11-1
Losira 8-4
Bboong 5-3
24-8
July 3-4
Nestea 2-1
Curious 2-3
Min 2-3
9-11
Seal 1-1
Zenio 1-1
True 1-1
Monster 1-1
Revival 1-1
Sheth 1-1
Sirius 1-1
Kyrix 1-2
Line 1-2
Check 1-2
Leenock 1-4
11-17
Horror 0-1
Cezanne 0-1
Junwi 0-1
Golden 0-1
Lucky 0-1
Violet 0-2
tgun 0-2
CoCa 0-2
Fruit 0-3
0-14
20-42
|
Just wanted to update the list of cumulative RO8, RO4, and RO2 appearances. One interesting thing to note- no player who has previously lost a finals match has ever won one, and no player who has previously won a finals match has ever lost one. It sounds obvious on the surface, but is a bit strange to think about.
+ Show Spoiler + Appearences
RO8
Nestea 5
HongUn 4
MKP 4
Nada 4
MC 3
Fruit 2
Inca 2
Rainbow 2
Jinro 2
Tester 2
Choya 2
SC 2
anypro 2
Top 2
Losira 2
LiveForever 1
Maka 1
Trickster 1
Ensnare 1
Alicia 1
Polt 1
Line 1
Kyrix 1
Genius 1
Boxer 1
Zenio 1
Rain 1
Idra 1
MVP 1
San 1
July 1
Lyn 1
Killer 1
MMA 1
Ryung 1
TheBest 1
CoCa 1
Byun 1
Bomber 1
RO4
MKP 4
Nestea 3
MC 3
HongUn 2
Rainbow 2
Jinro 2
MVP 2
San 2
MMA 1
LiveForever 1
Fruit 1
Ensnare 1
Boxer 1
Rain 1
July 1
Anypro 1
Nada 1
Inca 1
SC 1
Polt 1
TOP 1
Byun 1
Losira 1
Finals
MKP 3
Nestea 3
MC 2
MVP 2
Fruit 1
Rainbow 1
Rain 1
July 1
Inca 1
MMA 1
Polt 1
Losira 1
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So we are finally at the point where it is mathematically possible for all 32 of the original Code S players to have been replaced, and 2/3 of them already have been. Exactly 10 from Code S January remain: Nestea, HongUn, MC, Ensnare, Zenio, Kyrix, Genius, Nada, Clide, not including MVP because he fell out and came back in.
A list of the original 32 and the season they were demoted in:
+ Show Spoiler +Nestea
HongUn
MC
Ensnare
Zenio
Kyrix
Genius
Nada
Clide
Tester
Inca 4
Anypro 4
Fruit 4
MarineKing 4
RainBow 3
TheWind 3
Check 3
Jinro 3
San 3
Boxer 2
Choya 2
TheBEst 2
Hyperdub 2
MVP 2
Idra 2
LiveForever 1
Leenock 1
Rain 1
Maka 1
Polt 1
JookTo 1
LegalMind 1
A list of the current Code S players, and the season they made it in:
+ Show Spoiler +Original Code S:
Nestea
HongUn
MC
Ensnare
Zenio
Kyrix
Genius
Nada
Clide
Tester
UpAndDown Jan 2011
July
Byun
UpAndDown March 2011
Huk
Virus
Killer
Alicia
SuperNova
Losira
UpAndDown May 2011
Keen
Coca
Alive
Violet
MVPII
Bomber
UpAndDown July 2011
Code A Champ- Puzzle
Ryung
Happy
Noblesse/Cute
Asd/Nuclear
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United Kingdom10823 Posts
On July 26 2011 02:56 pullarius1 wrote:Just wanted to update the list of cumulative RO8, RO4, and RO2 appearances. One interesting thing to note- no player who has previously lost a finals match has ever won one, and no player who has previously won a finals match has ever lost one. It sounds obvious on the surface, but is a bit strange to think about. + Show Spoiler + Appearences
RO8
Nestea 5
HongUn 4
MKP 4
Nada 4
MC 3
Fruit 2
Inca 2
Rainbow 2
Jinro 2
Tester 2
Choya 2
SC 2
anypro 2
Top 2
Losira 2
LiveForever 1
Maka 1
Trickster 1
Ensnare 1
Alicia 1
Polt 1
Line 1
Kyrix 1
Genius 1
Boxer 1
Zenio 1
Rain 1
Idra 1
MVP 1
San 1
July 1
Lyn 1
Killer 1
MMA 1
Ryung 1
TheBest 1
CoCa 1
Byun 1
Bomber 1
RO4
MKP 4
Nestea 3
MC 3
HongUn 2
Rainbow 2
Jinro 2
MVP 2
San 2
MMA 1
LiveForever 1
Fruit 1
Ensnare 1
Boxer 1
Rain 1
July 1
Anypro 1
Nada 1
Inca 1
SC 1
Polt 1
TOP 1
Byun 1
Losira 1
Finals
MKP 3
Nestea 3
MC 2
MVP 2
Fruit 1
Rainbow 1
Rain 1
July 1
Inca 1
MMA 1
Polt 1
Losira 1
Statistically, that means MKP may never win a GSL. God even maths are against him, poor guy
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Finally settled into my new place and catching up on this season. Quick update of cumulative ROx appearances.
+ Show Spoiler +
Finals
MKP 3
MVP 3
Nestea 3
MC 2
Fruit 1
Rainbow 1
Rain 1
July 1
Inca 1
MMA 1
Polt 1
Losira 1
Top 1
RO4
MKP 4
Nestea 3
MC 3
MVP 3
HongUn 2
Rainbow 2
Jinro 2
Polt 2
TOP 2
San 2
July 2
MMA 1
LiveForever 1
Fruit 1
Ensnare 1
Boxer 1
Rain 1
Anypro 1
Nada 1
Inca 1
SC 1
Byun 1
Losira 1
RO8
Nestea 5
HongUn 4
MKP 4
Nada 4
MC 3
Top 3
MVP 2
Fruit 2
Inca 2
Rainbow 2
Jinro 2
Tester 2
Choya 2
SC 2
anypro 2
Genius 2
Polt 2
July 2
Losira 2
Ryung 2
LiveForever 1
Maka 1
Trickster 1
Ensnare 1
Alicia 1
Line 1
Kyrix 1
Boxer 1
Zenio 1
Rain 1
Idra 1
San 1
Lyn 1
Killer 1
MMA 1
TheBest 1
CoCa 1
Byun 1
Bomber 1
Keen 1
Huk 1
Of the eight quarter finalists, 6 had been there before, and 5 had been there precisely once before. This was the third RO8 appearance for Top, leaving just four players with more appearances than him. (Note: I didn't count the 16-man World Champs RO8 appearances, which is how MVP has more semifinals than quarterfinals.)
Every single player in the semis had made it there before, something that hasn't happened since the World Championships. MVP now ties the other two exemplar at 3 semifinals, with the King of Kong himself MKP leading at 4. Of the ten original Code Sers that have never been demoted, only one made it into the RO8 this month, and none made it into the semifinals. In fact of the four semifinalists, three of them made it into their current Code S in January. (Polt is an odd case though)
For the fifth time in a row, the Code S finals consists of a new finalist and a repeat-finalist. Fun fact: Each 64-man GSL has had two new finalists; each 16-man has had two repeat-finalists; and every 32-man tourney has had one of each. So far the repeat finalists are 3-1 in Code S finals, but the only newcomer to win was MVP himself in the very first season of Code S, so perhaps Top still has a chance. But the following still holds true: no former GSL champion has ever lost in a GSL finals. If anyone has had a chance so far, though, Top maybe has the best as the #5 TvTer goes up against #2 this Saturday.
This will be the first Code S finals between two players who qualified through Code A.
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Now there are only seven players who have survived in Code S since the first season: Nestea, HongUn, Ensnare, Zenio, Genius, Nada, and Clide. Of those Zenio, Genius, and Ensnare have all been sent to the Up And Downs twice, which is a pretty strong predictor for falling to Code A. So if I had to guess who falls next season, I'd put my money on them.
The only two original Code S players to have avoided the Up And Down matches altogether are Nada and Clide. Although I guess Idra technically has as well.
Here's a list of the current Code S players and which seasons they made it in:
+ Show Spoiler +Original Code S:
Nestea
HongUn
Ensnare
Zenio
Genius
Nada
Clide
Jan 2011
July
Top
Polt II - Wildcard
March 2011
Huk
Virus
Killer
SuperNova
Losira
May 2011
Keen
Coca
Alive
MVP II
Bomber
July 2011
Puzzle -Code A Champ
Ryung
Happy
Noblesse/Cute
Asd/Nuclear
MMA - MLG Anaheim
August 2011
Ganzi- Code A Champ
Leenock II
Jjakji
MKP II
Taeja
DongRaeGu - MLG Raleigh
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I looked for this stat, but couldn't find it, so here it is rather belatedly. There were fifteen players who played in all three Open seasons of the GSL:
+ Show Spoiler +
Check
Clide
FruitDealer
Genius
HongUn
Hyperdub
IdrA
jookTo
Maka
MC
NesTea
Polt
RainBOw
TheWinD
Zenio
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Here are some stats about exactly how many terrans we see in the GSL
In total there have been 40 GSL semifinalists. Of those, a whopping 23 have been terran. 9 have been protoss, and 8 have been zerg. That gives us a 57%/22%/20% split. Here are the stats for all the rest of the RoX's given as //. If you want to play with the data also, here is the spread sheet I compiled: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AoUaXp1u73w8dC1sU19oMnNtM2RwSk5hVFREX3VILUE&hl=en_US
Total:
236/389/231
28%/45/27
RO64:
75/103/77
29%/40/30
RO 32:
82/154/85
26%/48/26
RO16:
44/73/43
26%/45/27
RO8:
26/36/18
33%/45/23
RO4:
9/23/8
22%/57/20
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Stats make me a depressed protoss.
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I assume these race breakdowns are partially motivated by Day9's conversations on this week's SOTG?
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Hey, never posted here, amazing work sir, bookmarked
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Primadog: actually I haven't listened to this week's SotG yet! Off to listen to bask in how smart I am...
I've been planning an article based of some of the stats I've been compiling, and I was surprised I couldn't find this one anywhere.
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Great minds think alike.
Do you there's now sufficient data to make a conclusion that there's serious issues with the GSL format yet? Do you agree with Day9 that part of it is insufficient attrition? My personal feel for it is the problems are beyond that, but I have yet to spent sufficient time examining the format to draw strong opinions.
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I still haven't heard the podcast yet, but I assume by attrition you mean that the turnover is so slow. I don't think that is the reason. The number of terrans in Code S is higher than it's ever been, and it's because so many T's have been coming up from Code A. Only two players in Code S now have not faced relegation, so it is not as if they haven't had the chance to be demoted. Under the old system, I figured out that you could get into Code S with a losing record, and you could fall out of Code A with just a 1-4 streak, so I think people overstate the staleness of the system.(Nifty graphic showing who got in when here: http://esfiworld.com/sites/default/files/gsl-october-code-s-overview.jpg)
In the past two seasons, terran has gone 28-8, which just seems absurd, and not a single protoss out of eight (zerg: 2 of 7) has made it out of the new up-and-downs. Terrans have gone 6-5 for graduating players, but of those five failures, a full three were due to the fact that the two promotions were taken by OTHER TERRANS. (I talked about some of these stats in an EFSI article here)
Also, and this is what disturbed me about the stats I just posted, you'll notice that the percentage of zergs trends downward the further into the rounds you get. Since this an odd statistic, I'm not sure how likely it is that that this is due to the lower resolution of data in the lower rounds, but 23 out of 40 semifinal berths seems a bit silly.
I am really the last one to call imbalance in any game, and there can be many causes of these statistics. But the fan in me really wants to see more balanced tournaments.
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Oh, didn't realize you write for ESFI. Will they be sending you to Orlando? I know Derek really enjoyed his first MLG as an ESFI interviewer during Raleigh.
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They will be! I'm really looking forward to it :-)
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So I was looking at whom NesTea tends to lose to in the GSL (trying to figure out if he'll make it through groups this season :-p), and just like with any other NesTea statistic, the numbers are pretty impressive:
+ Show Spoiler +Open 1: LiveForever Ro8
Open 2: Won
Open 3: Rain Ro2
Jan: Mvp Champion
Mar: San Ro4 and Ensnare Ro16
Champs: Dimaga Ro8
May: Won
Super: TOP Ro4
July: Won
Aug: Mvp Champion
I don't think I've had enough stats to properly approach these numbers, but as a set of data we have that the person who beat him got to the following rounds 16,8,8,4,4,2,1,1,0,0,0 - which the zeros meaning that nobody beat him that tournament. Obviously, the median of this set is a 2, meaning that in some sense the average person who beat him got at least to the finals of the tournament. Excluding the zeros we have 16,8,8,4,4,2,1,1, where the corresponding statistic just says semifinals instead of finals. As powers of two we have 4,3,3,2,2,1,0,0 - the average of which is 1.9, meaning, again, that the average person who beats NesTea in a GSL gets to at least the semifinals.
I think those last two statistics are probably the more honest ones, but whatever the case they all agree that beating NesTea is quite a feat. In fact, the last time NesTea's victor lost before the semifinals was the World Championships. So if the mighty Group B manages to conquer the 3-time champ, look for whoever managed to take NesTea down to go deep into the tournament.
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Here's an update of the Champion's Curse. Listed are the rounds that the immediately previous champion made it to in each tournament. + Show Spoiler [I excluded the World Champs because] + A) It was a 16-man invite-only and B) The winner didn't participate in the next season's Code S. The previous winner, MC, did make it to the Ro4 though.
Ro32 - FruitDealer
Ro8 - NesTea
Ro16 - MC
Ro32 - Mvp
*excluding World Champs*
Ro32 - MC
Ro16 - NesTea
Ro16 - Polt
Ro16 - NesTea
Lining them up as before we get {32,32,32,16,16,16,16,8} or {5,5,5,5,4,4,4,3}.
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You're awesome.
Nothing more to say.
Oh, I'll say something more tho, that doesn't surprise me that you write for ESFI, that's the only other site that I visit beside TL, a ton of interesting articles there. Hope the site is working well.
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This is great stuff. Keep it up.
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These are amazing stats. Thoroughly engaging.
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So I love the idea of Lineal championships. In short, you pick an undisputed champion at some point in time, and the next person or team to beat the champion, becomes the champion. Although it doesn't really apply to most sports, people like creating them and tracking them for fun. For instance, Japan current holds the Unofficial Football World Championship, having picked it up in a friendly against Argentina. I decided to apply it to the GSL, picking FruitDealer as the first champ, and I got a pretty fun path through GSL history that covered a lot of the most fun games and upsets. In fact, a lot of title wins by obscure players marked the beginnings of very impressive runs. The current champion is Tails, who won it from Mvp in the most recent GSTL match, and defended it miraculously against NesTea. Here is the link to the spreadsheet. And here is the list, poorly formatted:
+ Show Spoiler [The List!] + Note: round listed next to player is when they lost it.
FruitDealer Ro64 Open 2 1
MarineKing Finals Open 2 3
NesTea Ro8 Season 3 3
Rain Finals Season 3 1
MC Ro16 Code S Jan 3
Jinro Ro4 Code S Jan 1
MarineKing Finals Code S Han 1
MVP GSTL Feb 2011 2
Squirtle GSTL Feb 2011 0
NesTea Ro32 Code S Mar 0
San Ro4 Code S Mar 4
MC GSTL Mar 3
MC GSTL Mar 3
Bomber GSTL Mar 0
Ryung GSTL Mar 2
Mvp GSTL Mar 1
MMA Ro 8 Code A May 2
Bomber GSTL May 3
MC GSTL May 1
DongRaeGu GSTL May 1
MMA Finals of SuperTourney 5
Polt Ro16 Code S July 2
Bomber Ro8 Code S July 3
Byun Ro4 Code S July 0
LosirA Finals Code S July 0
NesTea Ro32 Code S Aug 1
MMA Ro16 Code S Aug 0
Polt Ro4 Code S Aug 1
TOP Finals Code S Aug 0
Mvp GSTL Season 1 3
Tails! Current Champion
+ Show Spoiler +- FruitDealer was the first champ, obviously.
- From there, every single GSL match or game counts as a bout, including the the GSTL, special invite tournaments, and Code S groups.
- GSTL and Code S group games are counted as a Bo1 match.
- EXCEPT when there is one of the awkward Best-of-2's in the group stage. There I consider it literally a Best of 2 where the winner is the last one to win. This only came up once when Killer beat Polt in groups after his SuperChamp victory, but Polt beat him back to advance. Killer did not get the title for that. I mostly made this rule to encourage him to win Code S.
- I know it's lame that a single GSTL game counts for as much of a bout as a Bo7 Code S championship, but there weren't any fair ways I could think to do it that weren't very complicated.
- Suprisingly to me, almost every "champ" seems very qualified. The only players that have not made a QuarterFinals were DongRaeGu, Squirtle, and, the current champion, Tails.
- MC has the most aggregate title defenses at 10. MMA is second at 7. Mvp/Bomber tied for third at 6.
- MC also has the most title captures at 4. Bomber/MMA/Nestea/Mvp all have 3.
- The title changed hands five times in GSTL March, and MMA won it back twice.
- MMA had the longest title defense streak when he carried it from GSTL to the finals of the SuperTournament
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If it's not too much trouble. Who held the title the longest? From the looks of it, seems to be MC?
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I realized halfway through that it would have been smart to include dates :-/
MMA's run from the GSTL to the finals of the SuperTourney was nearly a month, though. I think that one is probably the longest in a row.
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It's been a while, so I thought I'd update with some stats about MLG I discovered.
Breakdown of MLG Orlando groups by total prize money won this season:
Group A - $ 4,900
Group B - $10,400
Group C - $ 2,200
Group D - $ 3,700
+ Show Spoiler [By Player] +A
IdrA 1900
Haypro 0
TLO 1000
Boxer 2000
Drewbie 0
4900
B
Kiwi 3000
Bomber5000
Inca 1400
Inc 0
Puma 1000
10,400
C
Slush 1000
Ret 500
Rain 700
Machine 0
HongUn 0
2200
D
HuK 1000
Hero 700
Tyler 0
MC 2000
July 0
3,700
For a sense of how this season's earning match up to IPL3 winnings, take a look at this.
No player has Top10'd all four MLG's this season.
Only three have Top16'd them all: Slush, Naniwa, and Sjow.
Only three players have Top10'd thrice: Naniwa, Idra, and Huk.
Twice: MMA, Kiwi, Slush, Sjow, DRG
And a somewhat odd group- players who have never placed higher than their current MLG points ranking: Idra, Slush, Sjow, Huk. And, trivially, Naniwa of course. I thought this was interesting because it somehow provides a measure of consistency and growth of a player rather than pure title-winning ability.
So many former GSL stalwarts are missing this season that Tyler, who is ranked 30th in MLG points, made it into the top 16 (after Bomber and and Boxer were taken out, as they are the GSL invites) to be seeded into groups.
One last funny thing that takes a bit to explain, so I'm spoilering it:
+ Show Spoiler +
at MLG Raleigh the placements in the middle of the groups did not predict well the placement in the tournament. That is, the 6th place players clustered around 25-21 and the first place players necessarily got 1-6, but rest were kind of scattered around in there. Specifically, the 3rd place players did much better than the 2nd place players, and the 4th place players did no better than the 5th place players. To help see this, here's a list of places followed by the group placement of the player who took that place. For instance, 15:3 means that the 15th place player took third in his group. O means open-bracket.
26: O
25: 6
24: 6
23: 5
22: 6
21: 6
20: 4
19: 4
18: 5
17: 4
16: 5
15: 3
14: O
13: 4
12: 2
11: 2
10: 2
09: 2
08: 3
07: 3
06: 5
05: 1
04: 3
03: 1
02: 1
01: 1
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I've kept meaning to post this, but it's been such a crazy week I kept forgetting:
Here's an odd little statistic I ran that I call Games in Jeopardy. Essentially, you count up the total number of games in a tournament that a player could have been eliminated in, and it should give a measure of how much they have been dominating their opponents. For instance, if a players x-0's all his opponents, then he was never once put in jeopardy of elimination. If a player always goes to the last game of every match, then he will have lots of GiJs, meaning that he played many games that could have been his last.
I thought it up because I realized that somehow in my brain I subconsciously counted come-back wins for much more than solid beat downs when I tried to reckon players' relative skill, when in fact having lots of amazing comebacks is actually probably a bad predictor for long-term success.
Here is the list for all the GSL individual leagues, listed in order of (winner, loser):
+ Show Spoiler +Fruit 1 Rainbow 0
NesTea 0 MKP 4
MC 2 Rain 4
MVP 0 MarineKing 2 (S Jan)
MC 0 July 4
NesTea 5 IncA 1
NesTea 0 Losira 3
Mvp 0 Top 4
Mvp 1 MarineKing 3 (Champs)
Polt 5 MMA 6 (Super)
In this tournament MMA has risked elimination five times while Mvp was only put on notice once by teammate NesTea.
I'm still pretty on the fence about this statistic, and it is definitely not one to be blindly followed. I have no idea how reliable it could be, and perhaps it only really says "most tournaments have a dominate player that wins the finals," but I think it gives a neat insight into players' paths to the championships.
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Now that the Up-And-Down matches are changing so dramatically, it makes sense to post some superlatives.
Most visits to the Up-And-Downs: Leenock and MarineKing at 4 apiece. Both had a promotion and a demotion, but MKP had two saves compared to Leenock's two failures to make Code S at all.
Most failures: Leenock and JYP at 2. Both players made it to the Up-And-Downs twice without being promoted. JYP is still trying.
Most Saves without Demotion: Ensnare. Ensnare is the only player currently in Code S to have avoided demotion twice. Kyrix, Inca, Genius, FruitDealer, MarineKing, and Zenio all made two saves, but were eventually demoted.
Most Promotions: Sc is the only player to have successfully toughed it out through Code A and the and Up-And-Downs twice.
Ironman Award: NaDa and Clide STILL have never been to the Up-And-Downs
Bronzeman Award: Additionally, NesTea and Ensnare have never been demoted.
Tinman Award: Polt has never technically missed a season of Code S, despite being demoted once.
Persistance Award: Polt, Rain, Mvp, Leenock, MarineKing, Sc, MC- players who made it back into Code S after being demoted.
Here's the link to the spreadsheet I used to compile these.
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Poor pullarius1, the new GSL format gonna make your stat-life hell.
Here's an interesting stat I found yesterday - before this season's Code A Prelim, only HerO ever made it through the prelim out of all the players on foreigner teams that tried. With this season, we can add iS and CrazymovING to this small list.
To give some perspective, here are Foreigner teams that had players previously in Code A/S: CoL:  NaNiwaEG: HuK,  IdrAFnatics: RainiS:  CrazymovINGmouZ: ThorZaINQxG: SaSeDignitas: SeleCT, SjoWLiquid: HayprO, HerO, Jinro, Ret, ShethIndependent: mOOnGLaDeNote that NaNiwa, ThorZaIN, SaSe, SeleCT, SjoW, Moonglade, HayprO, and Sheth's spots were gifted or earned through MLGs. So you're really lookig at EG, Fnatics, and Liquid as the only other teams to have qualified players through the prelims or from the Opens. Those three teams are good company to be in. For a more absurd stat - HerO is the only other player from the above list to have qualified from the Code A Prelims. + Show Spoiler [Previous players to have qualified thr…] +
Ace
Alicia
asd
Avenge
Bomber
BoxeR
Brown
Choya
CoCa
Creator
Curious
DongRaeGu
Dream
Extreme
finale
GanZi
GuMiho
Hack
Happy
hero
JYP
Jjakji
Jjun
JookTo
Keen
Leenock
Line
LosirA
Lucky
Lure
Luvsic
MMA
Maka
Maru
Min
Monster
Noblesse
Nuts
Oz
Puzzle
RevivaL
Ryung
SUPERSTAR
Sage
ShinyStar
Sniper
SocceR
Squirtle
SuperNoVa
TAiLS
Taeja
Tassadar
TheBest
TopClass
Violet
Virus
Weekend
Yoda
YuGiOh
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Haha yeah, I think I might give up on that specific spreadsheet.
That has never clicked for me about foreign teams. I guess I because SO many get to the final round of their prelim group and lose :-/ Although perhaps it is more that the best foreigners get invited to the GSL anyway, and there are still so few Koreans on foreign team. Were you counting fOu under FXO as one?
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Since this is something I've tracked from the beginning:
With the new format a player can go 5-5 from Code A an be promoted into Code S. (2-1, 0-2 in Code A 3-2, win breaker in Up-And-Down.) But a player can go 7-6 from Code S and be demoted to Code A! (2-0 Ro32, 1-2 Ro16, 1-2 Code A, 3-2 UpAndDown) These are definitely corner cases, but it seems pretty harsh that a player with an even record against mostly Code A players can get promoted while a player with a winning record against mostly Code S players gets demoted.
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From what I can see, only Sheth and moonglade were ever Code A from the non-fOu side of FXO, and (un)luckly both have since moved on from the team, so my argument stand.
Still trying to get my head around the new format, my gut feeling thinks that there may be circumstances where it's easier to get to code S from one route than another in a counter-intuitive fashion.
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On October 28 2011 01:07 pullarius1 wrote:Now that the Up-And-Down matches are changing so dramatically, it makes sense to post some superlatives. Most visits to the Up-And-Downs: Leenock and MarineKing at 4 apiece. Both had a promotion and a demotion, but MKP had two saves compared to Leenock's two failures to make Code S at all. Most failures: Leenock and JYP at 2. Both players made it to the Up-And-Downs twice without being promoted. JYP is still trying. Most Saves without Demotion: Ensnare. Ensnare is the only player currently in Code S to have avoided demotion twice. Kyrix, Inca, Genius, FruitDealer, MarineKing, and Zenio all made two saves, but were eventually demoted. Most Promotions: Sc is the only player to have successfully toughed it out through Code A and the and Up-And-Downs twice. Ironman Award: NaDa and Clide STILL have never been to the Up-And-Downs Bronzeman Award: Additionally, NesTea and Ensnare have never been demoted. Tinman Award: Polt has never technically missed a season of Code S, despite being demoted once. Persistance Award: Polt, Rain, Mvp, Leenock, MarineKing, Sc, MC- players who made it back into Code S after being demoted. Here's the link to the spreadsheet I used to compile these.
Very weird to see Ensnare and NesTea ever being put in the same category. 
You should give an award to YuGiOh. Six seasons in Code A before making it into Code S.
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Thank you so much for doing this I love reading these stats.. but I'm too lazy to look them up on my own unless it's in relation for a post/writing or something.
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Now that we have had a huge change in the GSL format, I'm thinking about resetting the statistics I keep. As such, here are a bunch of the long-term stats I've kept:
Running percentages of races by round (Ro32, Ro16, Ro8, Ro4)
P: 25%, 26%, 30%, 20%
T: 40%, 49%, 47%, 60% (!!!!!)
Z: 26%, 27%, 22%, 18%
And then for total spots (so a Terran that gets three rounds counts for 3)
Protoss: 26% Terran: 48% Zerg: 27%
So terrans account for 48% of all player*games in Code S. Even more disturbing is that terrans have taken a whopping 60% of all semifinals slots, which just feel absurd despite the relatively small sample size. Protoss and zerg still seem fairly even, except protoss are oddly better at getting to the quarter finals than zergs.
Win Percentages:
PvT: 136 - 166 (45%)
PvZ: 94 - 115 (45%)
TvZ: 152-155 (50%)
Shouldn't be all that surprising. These statistics are a tad misleading, though, due to the fact that the race of the two finalists has an inordinate effect in the winning percentages. That sounds odd to say, but I think Protoss's plight is better understood in the previous set of numbers. It should be noted, though, that Protoss has had only three winning seasons: The two seasons MC won, and, oddly, the World Champs.
Number of mirror matches by race:
Protoss: 64 (17%)
Terran: 258 (69%)
Zerg: 53 (14%)
So a whopping 69% of all mirror matches in Code S have been TvT. In the last tournament >50% of ALL matches were TvT. I'm tempted to calculate that number for the entirety of the GSL. Maybe later.
Here's an odd statistic that I've posted a few times on here: whether or not a race has lost >50 <50 or exactly 50% of its players from one round to the next. Here's the raw data:
+ Show Spoiler + B = more than 50% lost
L = less than 50% lost
H = exactly half lost
0 = only one or less of that race remained in that round
NB: only logged up until the semifinals or each round
Toss:
BLBB0
BBB00
HLLLH
BH00
LLLB
LHB
HLB0
BB000
LLB0
HHB0
B000
Terr
LBLLB
BBLLB
LLBLH
LBLL
BBB0
HLL
HBLB
LLLHH
BBH0
LLLL
HLLH
Zerg:
BBH00
LLBB0
BBHB0
BLH0
HB00
BB0
HHH0
BLB00
HLLL
BB00
LBB0
Toss: BLBB0|BBB00|HLLLH|BH00|LLLB|LHB|HLB0|BB000|LLB0|HHB0|B000
Terr: LBLLB|BBLLB|LLBLH|LBLL|BBB0|HLL|HBLB|LLLHH|BBH0|LLLL|HLLH
Zerg: BBH00|LLBB0|BBHB0|BLH0|HB00|BB0|HHH0|BLB00|HLLL|BB00|LBB0
Number of rounds in which each race had one or less player:
Protoss - 14
Terran - 2
Zerg- 14
So Terran has had at least two players in every round before the finals except for two, while the other two races have fourteen in which at most a sole representative was present.
Percentage of rounds with >2 players in which less than half were lost:
Protoss - 39%
Terran - 55%
Zerg - 29%
Terran is MORE LIKELY THAN NOT to lose less than half of its players in any given round of the GSL. This, I felt, showed that it was not simply the amount of Terran players that accounted for their success in the GSL.
Finally, an update on the Lineal Championship, which has finally moved back to Code S! We left off with Tails upsetting Mvp to claim the crown in the GSTL.
+ Show Spoiler [Lineage] +Tails
Tassadar
Keen
Seal
Genius
BboongBboong
Keen
Oz
Yugioh
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This thread always amaze me.
Thank you <3
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Surprising fact that could have some serious repercussions in the new Code S format: Only six players have ever Top 8'd two Code S's in a row: NaDa, Anypro, sC, Losira, NesTea, and Mvp. Only NaDa has strung together three in a row.
In fact, since July, when nobody from the June quarterfinals managed to Top 8, only Mvp has managed to hit the Top8 twice in a row.
The most Top 8 repeaters were in March>May with three.
This is pretty crazy considering that only the Top 8 of Code S are safe this season.
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So basically, Terran is too strong. Anyone that follows the game already knows that. =P
Thanks for more numbers to support our hypothesis though!
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Hey all! Sorry it's been so long since I updated. The reason is that I've started writing for MLG! I have a pretty regular column there called "SC2 By the Numbers" along with other stuff throughout the week. Here's a sampling of the stuff I've done this week:
Some NASL-related stats
Some stats on GSL Mirror matches
Code A stuff
and some silliness with the MLG Viewership Numbers
If you want to see more, you can just search for my real name, since the MLG search is really finicky.
I'll still try to post tidbits here or on twitter, but the really juicy stuff will go to MLG and SC Report :-)
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Congrats on MLG, pullarius!
Finally, someone who can cite numbers without making me want to dig my eyes out.
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Oh you don't know, pullarius. Last night someone went on lo3 as "the numbers guy" and it just made me raged so hard.
HACKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKK
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On December 10 2011 07:52 pullarius1 wrote:Hey all! Sorry it's been so long since I updated. The reason is that I've started writing for MLG! I have a pretty regular column there called "SC2 By the Numbers" along with other stuff throughout the week. Here's a sampling of the stuff I've done this week: Some NASL-related statsSome stats on GSL Mirror matchesCode A stuffand some silliness with the MLG Viewership NumbersIf you want to see more, you can just search for my real name, since the MLG search is really finicky. I'll still try to post tidbits here or on twitter, but the really juicy stuff will go to MLG and SC Report :-)
Ha, grats, was it you who posted the protoss in GSL article ?
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On December 22 2011 01:59 MrCon wrote:Show nested quote +On December 10 2011 07:52 pullarius1 wrote:Hey all! Sorry it's been so long since I updated. The reason is that I've started writing for MLG! I have a pretty regular column there called "SC2 By the Numbers" along with other stuff throughout the week. Here's a sampling of the stuff I've done this week: Some NASL-related statsSome stats on GSL Mirror matchesCode A stuffand some silliness with the MLG Viewership NumbersIf you want to see more, you can just search for my real name, since the MLG search is really finicky. I'll still try to post tidbits here or on twitter, but the really juicy stuff will go to MLG and SC Report :-) Ha, grats, was it you who posted the protoss in GSL article ?
Yes it was :-)
MLG is cutting back on written stuff now, though, so look for more stuff on ESFI.
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Well... that was short :-/ You'll still be able to find my stuff on ESFI though.
Anyway, a quick stat: over ALL the individual SC2 tournaments Gom has run (So All Code S, Code A, Opens and special tournaments) only 5 Protoss players have ever made any finals: MC (Sx2), Inca (S), Puzzle(A), Oz(A), and Tassadar(A).
Over 22 tournaments there have been 44 finalists. Of those, 24 have been Terran, 14 have been Zerg, and 6 have been Protoss. Or, by percentage, a 55/32/14 split, meaning that Terrans have had four times more finalists than have Protoss players.
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Here are some Code S Week 1 stats featured in my Code S Recap over on ESFI:
Zergs have sucked at counter-picking maps. They've won only 3/13 games on maps they have picked against the other two races. Protoss are 7/10 and Terran are 9/16. List of picked maps. (Feel free to check my work on this one as I was really tired when I compiled it)
There was a nice separation on how different tiers of players did against the others. Ro8/Code A/UpAndDown/Special Invite went 62%/54%/36%/11% in win percentage against the other tiers. And it went 75%/67%/20%/0% in terms of getting players through to the next round.
There was only one group out of eight that had a rematch between in the final match (that awkward best-of-two). The average has been four out of eight over the past four seasons.
There have been many more comebacks in these bests-of-three compared to the Ro16 bests-of-three from other Code S seasons, at least as a percentage of 3-game-matches. Over all previous Code S seasons, the winner of the first game has won three-game-matches 60% of the time. In this group stage, they only won 44% of the time. Best guess is that, if this stat is significant, map-picking must be making comebacks a bit easier when two opponents are equally matched.
The is the fourth Code S in a row where the Ro16 is at least half Terran. By really quick estimation I'd say the chance of any one race randomly nabbing at least eight spots (assuming independence yada yada) is around 36%, so the chances of it happening four times in a row should be around 1.5%. If anyone wants to do a more deliberate calculation I'd love to see it.
Group H was just the fourth ever Code S group to have two Protoss players take first and second place. The three others were Choya/Tester in January, Tester/Anypro in March, and Huk/Puzzle in November. It has happened only once for Zerg, when Losira and Coca got first and second back in July. It has happened twenty-two times for Terran, however, largely due to the surfeit of Terran players in the GSL.
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On January 03 2012 05:53 pullarius1 wrote:
Well... that was short :-/ You'll still be able to find my stuff on ESFI though.
Anyway, a quick stat: over ALL the individual SC2 tournaments Gom has run (So All Code S, Code A, Opens and special tournaments) only 5 Protoss players have ever made any finals: MC (Sx2), Inca (S), Puzzle(A), Oz(A), and Tassadar(A).
Over 22 tournaments there have been 44 finalists. Of those, 24 have been Terran, 14 have been Zerg, and 6 have been Protoss. Or, by percentage, a 55/32/14 split, meaning that Terrans have had four times more finalists than have Protoss players.
Unfortuante. I am starting to question whether Sundance know what's he doing, when layoff comes a month after a hiring spree.
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On January 26 2012 04:15 Primadog wrote:
Unfortuante. I am starting to question whether Sundance know what's he doing, when layoff comes a month after a hiring spree.
Hopefully something else will come up. :-/
One more thing: I was very interested going into the new, Ro16 group selection ceremony as to whether players would pick opponents they had already beaten in the Ro32 for their groups, since obviously they should feel confident in their chances against just-beaten opponents. The way the groups turned out, though, only two players even had the opportunity to pick players they had already beaten. Ganzi picked last season's champion Jjakji, whom he had 2-0'd in the Ro32. Oz, on the other hand, declined to pick Curious, whom he had also 2-0'd.
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I compiled a list of winnings at MLGs last year to compare them to how well the players did in terms of points v winnings. The discrepancies are pretty large in some places. The top ten in points went 2, 5, 8, 3, 7, 6, 21, 4, 27,11 in terms of winnings, while the top 10 in winnings were 16, 1, 4, 8, 2, 6, 5, 3, 12, 11 in points.+ Show Spoiler [Graph] +
The 21 and 27 in the first list come from Slush and Ret, who only earned $1000 and $500 this year respectively. The 16 on the second list, of course, comes from Leenock, who managed to top the winnings of every other player with just a single win. It is worth noting that Leenock's winnings doubled all but Naniwa's, while Naniwas'a winnings doubled all but DRG's, thanks to the incredibly top-heavy prize distribution. There will be an article out on ESFI soon that mentions some of this, and I'll link it here when it is published.
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Did some quick calculating based on a snippet of SotG discussion from last night. When a Code S group is XYYY in terms of race distribution, and so the X has only one matchup to prepare for while the Y's have two, the X is 13/22 (59%) for making it out of the group. Interestingly, though, the X is far more likely to get 2nd place than third, something I think we can attribute to the Y's almost always being three terrans. Also, I don't think this sample is quite big enough to say anything definite.
When a group is XXYZ, so X has three matchups compared to he two of Y and Z, though, the X still makes it out 36/66 (55%) of the time. Again, because that XX is so often Terran, I think the most likely conclusion is that 2 v 3 matchups does not matter all that much. Also, none of this take into consideration that groups can often be somewhat predicted, and that it is still somewhat unlikely that a player will even play all three races in a 3-race group.
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Holy shit. How does this not have a billion posts. Screw this I'm tweeting immediately. Absolutely brilliant piece.
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On January 28 2012 06:35 Day[9] wrote:
Holy shit. How does this not have a billion posts. Screw this I'm tweeting immediately. Absolutely brilliant piece.
Well, how come I never saw this thread before? I spend HOURS in TL and never saw it until Sean tweeted about it.
TY for the Tweet, made me discover this masterpiece. One of the best bumps of, like, EVER.
Brilliant. Absolutely brilliant. Not to mention itis TOTALLY right! ._.
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Mmm. I believe Fruitdealer lost his unofficial title in the round of 32 of open season 2 not round of 64 as it says :D
Just in case you care, and wish to fix it.
Was fun to read though!
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United Kingdom14464 Posts
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Wow, this is some really interesting stuff here. Thank you for writing it and thank Day[9] for tweeting about it!
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Very interesting but sad Blizzard doesn't release their statistics because it doesn't say why there's so many terrans..is it just because
a)many more people play terrans to start with ?
b)they're just better players
c)the builds have been perfected more than with the other races ?
d)mvp fucks up the statistics chuck norris style
e)race is slightly better?
It'd be interesting to know what's the averaqe length of those games as well (with the detail for each matchup) if you ever study that, just to see if there's a pattern there ....I always get the feeling that T is stronger in the early game (banshees, mmm pushes, bunker rushes), Z mid game (roach pushes, early pools, mutalings) and P late game (deathball with right unit mix), so T would have an advantage there just by being able to end more games earlier but that's just a hunch from all those games I've watched, stats would be interesting....
Whatever the reasons for this may be, if you're a Zerg or Protoss pro and wanna qualify for the GSL, seeing those stats must make you wish you had played terran from the start.
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On January 28 2012 06:48 UmbraaeternuS wrote:Show nested quote +On January 28 2012 06:35 Day[9] wrote:
Holy shit. How does this not have a billion posts. Screw this I'm tweeting immediately. Absolutely brilliant piece. Well, how come I never saw this thread before? I spend HOURS in TL and never saw it until Sean tweeted about it. TY for the Tweet, made me discover this masterpiece. One of the best bumps of, like, EVER. Brilliant. Absolutely brilliant. Not to mention itis TOTALLY right! ._.
LURK MOAR
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On January 28 2012 06:35 Day[9] wrote:
Holy shit. How does this not have a billion posts. Screw this I'm tweeting immediately. Absolutely brilliant piece. Thanks! And thanks to the other kind words as well :-)
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This thread is awesome. Thanks for putting it all together
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Wow, amazing man - i just saw this and am like.. wow! This is very intresting to read and while following the GSL quite alot. This is sooo cool to see the stats about the players, tournys.. man. I am for sure gonna read all off it when I get home.
Keep up the awesome work.
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I missed all the january updates, thanks a lot as always, please keep up doing this !
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Some stats I compiled about last season's GSTL for this article:
The matches are extremely streaky, which is probably to be expected. Only 31% of game wins came from single-game wins, whereas a full 48% of all game wins came as part of streaks that were 3 or longer.
Also, more games were ended by 4-kill streaks (37%) than by 3-kill streaks, 2-kill streaks, or even single-game wins.
Finally, if you win a game in the GSTL, you are 54% likely to win the next. If you win 2 in a row, you'll win a third 63% of the time, and if you win three you have a 62% chance of finishing out the 4-kill.
One thing that annoys me in the GSTL is when a team will send out two of the same race in a row. It seems absurd and only a good idea in a very limited set of circumstances, but it happens all the time. It turns out that the second player of the same race in a row only wins 31% of the time :-/ One confounding factor here was SlayerS, since they sent out Terrans 86% of the time, which forced the statistic towards their team average. Taking into account just Group B and the Playoffs, that second player of the same race won only 2 out of 18 times (%11)
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wow giantic list of info, susprised this doesn't get more dicussion
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On January 31 2012 09:32 pullarius1 wrote:Some stats I compiled about last season's GSTL for this article: The matches are extremely streaky, which is probably to be expected. Only 31% of game wins came from single-game wins, whereas a full 48% of all game wins came as part of streaks that were 3 or longer. Also, more games were ended by 4-kill streaks (37%) than by 3-kill streaks, 2-kill streaks, or even single-game wins. Finally, if you win a game in the GSTL, you are 54% likely to win the next. If you win 2 in a row, you'll win a third 63% of the time, and if you win three you have a 62% chance of finishing out the 4-kill. One thing that annoys me in the GSTL is when a team will send out two of the same race in a row. It seems absurd and only a good idea in a very limited set of circumstances, but it happens all the time. It turns out that the second player of the same race in a row only wins 31% of the time :-/ One confounding factor here was SlayerS, since they sent out Terrans 86% of the time, which forced the statistic towards their team average. Taking into account just Group B and the Playoffs, that second player of the same race won only 2 out of 18 times (%11)
I wonder if we can develop a statistical model to determine how far from a RNG this streakiness is. Based on my limited research, this type of streakiness do not exist in 1v1 bo3s.
+ Show Spoiler [all wrong, need redo] +Let's suppose every player sent out has an equal chance of winning their match. - Then 25% of game wins came from single-game wins, whereas 37.5% of all game wins came as part of streaks that were 3 or longer.
- 4-kill streaks will 12.5%, 3-kill streak 12.5%, 2-kill stream 25%, 1-kill 50%.
- If one win a game in the GSTL, you are 50% likely to win the next. If you win 2 in a row, you'll win a third 50% of the time, and if you win three you have a 50% chance of finishing out the 4-kill.
Let's suppose, instead, that there're a two tier system: I. 20% players win 70% of the time II. 80% players win 45% of the time (a rough model of GSTL S1 http://wiki.teamliquid.net/starcraft2/2011_Global_StarCraft_II_Team_League_Season_1/Statistics#MVP ) [list][*] Then 24% of game wins came from single-game wins, ... line one above seems wrong, gonna redo my math a little
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On February 01 2012 02:41 Primadog wrote:
I wonder if we can develop a statistical model to determine how far from a RNG this streakiness is. Based on my limited research, this type of streakiness do not exist in 1v1 bo3s.
Interesting start. Let me know if you get somewhere with it. One thing I was thinking, once the season finishes, is to somehow compare the number of game win streaks this season in Code S, where losers pick the maps, to past seasons. You would think that there would be more WLW (as opposed to LWW) and 2-0 Bo3s with the loser picking the maps. In fact, there have been less WLW's than usual and more 2-0's. I'm hesitant to draw any conclusions quite yet, though, since you would expect a greater skill gap in Ro32, and perhaps Bo3's in a group setting have something different about them psychologically.
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Wanted to update with some stats I've been collecting on map choice now that players get to pick.
In mirror matches, it seems that Protoss have a solid advantage on maps they pick, while TvTs are dictated more by the skill of the players. Out of 8 counter-picked games played in PvPs, the player who picked the map has won 6 (75%) times. On the other side, out of 15 TvT games, the map picker has won just 5 (33%) times.
Protoss have been successful counter-picking against Terran, winning 7/11 (64%) of the time. Of those 11 games, the Protoss picked DayBreak 8 times (73%), but went just 4-4 on it.
Zergs have picked almost exclusively Bel'shir Beach against Protoss (5/6 times), but have a losing record on it (2-3). They have also picked Bel'Shir more than half of the time in non-mirrors, 8/15 times.
Players do no seem very comfortable on the new, non-ladder maps yet. Cloud Kingdom and Metropolis have only been picked 5 times each out of 86 games.Zergs have been the most hesitant and have only picked one of the three new maps, including Entombed Valley, once out of 17 games (6%). That one time was when Lucky lost to Mvp.
Overall, map picking does not seem to be a huge advantage, with the pickers winning 45% of the time. Of course, you have to keep in mind that these are players who have already lost a game.
And here's a short preview of my yet-to-be-published Code S recap on ESFI: + Show Spoiler +
Stats
MC's PvP: There have been just five PvP's in the quarterfinals and beyond of all standard GSL tournaments. MC has played in four of those matches, and won three of them.
Rematches: All four groups in the Ro16 had rematches for the deciding fifth. Only a single group out of all eight Ro32 groups had a rematch. In those five rematches, the winner of the first match prevailed four times, but no player 4-0'd his opponent.
Hat Trick: MMA has become just the third player to make the Top8 of three Code S seasons in a row. The other two are Mvp and NaDa.
Clear the Way: This will be the first Code S Ro8 without NesTea or Mvp since Code S March 2011. It is also the first time half of the the quarterfinalists have been Protoss since March 2011. March 2011 was the last time a Protoss won a GSL. That Protoss was MC.
Repeat Performers: Three of last season's quarterfinalists made it back this season. The last time that happened was in Code S May, when Anypro, NaDa, and Sc all repeated.
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Some of the juicy tidbits from my latest Code S recap:
In all of Code S history, the player who won the first game of a quarterfinals match has prevailed 29 out of 32 times (91%). Top came back from a 0-1 deficit to win 3-1 against Genius last August, and Jinro did the same against IdrA in January. The only 0-2 comeback was when Byun 3-2'd Bomber after losing the first two games back in July of 2011. Comebacks from 1-2 deficits are even rarer, with only two ever in the Ro8. Comebacks are more common in the semifinals, with the same number of comebacks, five, in half as many games. There has never been a comeback in the finals.
MC's 0-3 loss against Genius was the first time MC has ever lost 3 PvP's in a row, and only the third time he's lost a PvP match in Korea.
This is the first Code S Semifinals to lack any of the "Big Three" - NesTea, MC, and Mvp. In fact, none of the four semifinalists has ever been to a Ro4 before.
If Genius manages to win, he would be just the third Protoss to make it to a GSL finals. DongRaeGu would be the sixth Zerg. GuMiho and aLive would be the ninth and tenth Terrans.
The only time there has been a rematch from an earlier round in a GSL finals was Code S March, when MC and July met for the second time that tournament. MC won both the first meeting, in the RO32, and the finals. Both aLive/GuMiho and DRG/Genius have already played this tournament. aLive and Genius both won the first matches.
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Sorry, been gone from this thread for a while, mostly because of real life stuff and getting discouraged about the value of stuff I was doing. Trying to get back into it though if I can. Anyway...
ESF v KeSPA:
I compiled all the KeSPA/ESF matchups that have happened so far in the OSL, the GSL, and the WCS. I excluded MLG MvP because it's format is just too different I think. As most could deduce, KeSPA has been doing very well for themselves, and not just due to Rain's awesome run through Code S. Here is the breakdown by tournament, listed in [games], [matches] from KeSPA's point of view:
Code S: 16-10 (61%), 5-4 (55%)
Code A: 37-26 (58%), 17-10(62%)
OSL : 12-12 (50%), 1-1 (50%)
WCS Kor: 40-32 (55%), 17-11(60%)
WCS Asia: 9-5 (64%), 4-2 (67%)
Overall: 114-85 (57%), 44-28 (61%)
Far and away the best performers so far for KeSPA have been Hero and Roro, 11-4, 8-3 in matches overall, for an impressive combined 71% win rate.
No ESF player has really been able to post a dominating record like that against KeSPA, mainly due to the fact that they are still fairly sparse in tournaments and so no one player has faced them very many times. The one exception of course was TLHero in WCS Korea, where he went on a 3-0 tear before having to forfeit, had he stayed in he could have conceivably beaten Roro and Rain as well, which would have completed an impressive streak.
Definitely looking forward to the tournaments starting to stabilize in terms of participants from the two camps.
Code S:
Some random stats I compiled for ESFI's preview of the finals.
Life is 14-2 in games this tournament and has not lost a single match. The only player who has done better in the new (since 2012) format has been Squirtle, who went 14-1 before losing to a 15-8 Mvp in Season 2. In fact, in all three seasons that have featured the best-of-three, double group format, the player who has lost the most games has won each time. The records of the past finalists has been-
S1: DongRaeGu (14-6) beat Genius (14-4)
S2: Mvp (15-8) beat Squirtle (14-1)
S3: Seed (15-7) beat MC (14-5)
Also, each of those three winners lost a match in the group stage, meaning that if Life wins, he would become the first player to make an undefeated run through Code S.
Mvp could set the record for most game losses accrued in a Code S championship run with a 4-3 victory, which would put him at 18-10. NesTea is still the only one to have won Code S without a single game loss (July 2011), and Mvp is the only one to have done it losing only a single game (January 2011).
Much can be made out of the fact that Life is coming into the finals having practiced nothing but TvZ for the last two rounds, but history shows that it is not that big of an advantage. Four players have gone into the Code S finals in similar circumstance, ie having played their finals matchup in the Ro8 and Ro4. Mvp did won 2012 Season 2 having playing three TvPs in a row, and MMA won 2011 October having won four consecutive terran mirrors, but MarineKing and Leenock lost in January and November of last year having played nothing but Terrans past the group stages.
Life has played against three past Code S finalists this season, including two champions: NesTea, Seed, and MarineKing. He went 8-1 against them, losing only a single game to MarineKing. In fact, every player Life has faced this season, except JYP, has made it to at least the Code S semifinals. That is cheating a little bit, since TaeJa made his first Ro4 appearance this tournament.
Also, this season TaeJa became just the third player to make three Code S Ro8's in a row, the other two being MMA and Mvp.
EDIT: Ack, I can't seem to edit this in to my OP. Do posts go uneditable after a certain amount of time? Is there any way to reverse it?
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Woot a new post. Do you know I have this blog bookmarked ?
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Thanks :-D Might have to start a new one if I can't figure out how to edit the original post though.
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United States10328 Posts
On October 21 2012 14:58 pullarius1 wrote:
Thanks :-D Might have to start a new one if I can't figure out how to edit the original post though.
Yeah, there's a certain time period after which you can't edit the OP. Maybe PM a mod?
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EPT
