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imbalances and playing percentages

Blogs > esla_sol
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esla_sol
Profile Blog Joined September 2008
United States756 Posts
December 12 2009 18:54 GMT
#1
please note: this post is about warcraft 3.

orc vs ud on temple is the most imbalanced matchup in the game. im guessing if someone were to compile statistics the orc winning % would probably be around 80%. most undeads just thumb the map down. i have a different view on things.

over the last few months, ive been toying with high risk openings in order to try and solve the imbalance through probability. the goal is to give myself the greatest chance to win the game, even if the odds are against me.

my high risk strategy of choice: dreadlord fast expand. if you are not familiar with war3, this type of opening can be extremely vulnerable. its not neccessairly hit or miss if scouted, although i would prefer to remain unscouted, the strategy is vulnerable if a few things which i can not control happen. summed up, these are:

1. position
2. item drops

position. if the orc spawns close to the expo when im at the 6 or 12 o clock positions, i can safely assume i will lose 90% of the time to a demo/tower push.

item drops. if the orc creeps the middle, and book of the dead drops, i will lose 99% of the time if close positions as detailed above. if positions in my favor, then i would say my chances increase to about 70%. this is still very bad.

as you can see, if a few random things happen during the game, all i can do is say gg and move on. however, more often than not, the orc does not get an advantaged spawn, and book of the dead does not drop (i'd love to dwelve deeper into these numbers, but that extends beyond the scope of the post). in this case, my chances of winning have literally skyrocketed. without getting into detail of how the games tend to play out, i estimate my odds of winning these games at 7 to 3 or 8 to 2. pretty huge difference.

essentially what i have done is taken a sure thing for the orc and created volatility. i dont expect to take every game, but by rolling the dice, ive increased my chances greatly. using this principle, ive begun using this strategy on more and more maps. on my most recent ladder account, this has increased my undead vs orc % to close to 66%, greater than any previous accounts ive had (my other stats are 66 v hu, 71 v ud, 85 v ne).

in short: adding high risk and volatile moves can greatly increase your chances of winning against imbalances. one should always be looking out for situations to find these.



***
arb
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
Noobville17920 Posts
December 12 2009 19:00 GMT
#2
this is a quality post i think but can you give some of us non wc3 players some insight on what book of the dead and some of the other things you talk about mean?

liek what is a tower/demo push?
Artillery spawned from the forges of Hell
maga33
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
United States247 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-12-12 19:05:31
December 12 2009 19:01 GMT
#3
wait this is talking about lost temple right?

Ya orc is way op on lost temple. I've seen my friend creep it with a level 2 blademaster and 3 grunts.

EDIT: When you kill creeps, the stronger ones drop items. The book of the dead is a powerful weapon that raises skeletal warriors and archers for a limited time to fight for you. I believe the total number is something like 8 or 12. In warcraft you rarely push pass 50 food early so having an extra 8/12 units is a huge plus.

Tower rush is pretty much like cannon rushes in BW. Its just that you usually need a lumber mill to get it so you usually rush at tier 2. You also usually rush to contain you opponent in order for you to be able to creep/level up hero/expo instead of rushing to kill.
The victorious strategist only seeks battle after the victory has been won, whereas he who is destined to defeat first fights and afterwards looks for victory.
esla_sol
Profile Blog Joined September 2008
United States756 Posts
Last Edited: 2009-12-12 19:06:45
December 12 2009 19:04 GMT
#4
On December 13 2009 04:00 arb wrote:
this is a quality post i think but can you give some of us non wc3 players some insight on what book of the dead and some of the other things you talk about mean?

liek what is a tower/demo push?


book of the dead is an item that can drop from the middle gnolls on lost temple. it spawns a bunch of skeletons, melee and ranged. it is especially deadly because all orc units are large sized, and thus with proper sim city can not attack acoltyes (your workers) at your expansion or main. if an orc uses the book of the dead, however, the skeletons are small enough to fit in the cracks and attack your acolytes, making it very difficult to defend.
IceCube
Profile Blog Joined June 2009
Croatia1403 Posts
December 12 2009 19:28 GMT
#5
On December 13 2009 04:04 esla_sol wrote:
Show nested quote +
On December 13 2009 04:00 arb wrote:
this is a quality post i think but can you give some of us non wc3 players some insight on what book of the dead and some of the other things you talk about mean?

liek what is a tower/demo push?


book of the dead is an item that can drop from the middle gnolls on lost temple. it spawns a bunch of skeletons, melee and ranged. it is especially deadly because all orc units are large sized, and thus with proper sim city can not attack acoltyes (your workers) at your expansion or main. if an orc uses the book of the dead, however, the skeletons are small enough to fit in the cracks and attack your acolytes, making it very difficult to defend.

Just use siege tanks then and pop a vulture or two.
Great post, if you play WC3 that is...
Forever Vulture.. :(
maga33
Profile Blog Joined December 2008
United States247 Posts
December 12 2009 19:36 GMT
#6
I started with wc3 but then i transitioned into sc.

Imo sc is more interesting. wc3 has had the same maps for like 4 years. Its just a competition of who can do the same thing better where as sc there is more adaptation.
The victorious strategist only seeks battle after the victory has been won, whereas he who is destined to defeat first fights and afterwards looks for victory.
NFL2368
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United States112 Posts
December 12 2009 19:40 GMT
#7
lol orc is the protoss and the terran of war3 at the same time

easiest to learn

easiest to play at the highest level
Tuke
Profile Joined January 2009
Finland1666 Posts
December 12 2009 20:45 GMT
#8
On December 13 2009 04:40 NFL2368 wrote:
lol orc is the protoss and the terran of war3 at the same time

easiest to learn

easiest to play at the highest level

Only to learn and play on low levels, definitely not on high level
TeamLiquid CJ Entusman #42
Severedevil
Profile Blog Joined April 2009
United States4835 Posts
December 12 2009 21:01 GMT
#9
If this Book of the Dead is a huge problem for you, can you steal the item with a potion of invisibility? (Consider disabling the Blademaster with Sleep, so he 100% cannot beat you to the item.)

I dunno how to deal with positional imbalances, except to scout your opponent and skip the fast expand if positions make it non viable. (Or maybe expand to a different position than your natural.)
My strategy is to fork people.
CharlieMurphy
Profile Blog Joined March 2006
United States22895 Posts
December 12 2009 21:41 GMT
#10
On December 13 2009 06:01 Severedevil wrote:
If this Book of the Dead is a huge problem for you, can you steal the item with a potion of invisibility? (Consider disabling the Blademaster with Sleep, so he 100% cannot beat you to the item.)

I dunno how to deal with positional imbalances, except to scout your opponent and skip the fast expand if positions make it non viable. (Or maybe expand to a different position than your natural.)

what mobs drop the book exactly? The fountain? or the Ogres on the sides?
..and then I would, ya know, check em'. (Aka SpoR)
old times sake
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
165 Posts
December 12 2009 22:50 GMT
#11
You mean they still haven't finished War3? I quit playing because it was like this. SC is better. What are your thoughts on SC2? I would like to hear from more War3 players about this, maybe make a blog post about it if that's allowed.
Lol it's so funny watching the level of posting deteriorate so rapidly when supporters of this decision are confronted with such nefarious things as REASONS. --fanatacist
Lazzarrath
Profile Joined September 2009
United States1 Post
December 24 2009 04:57 GMT
#12
I usually leave it thumbs up, because its a fun map for every match up besides UDvOC
Out of curiosity why dreadlord? you can creep the natural on LT with 5 ghouls, so why DL over DK? I agree with you on the crazy strats vs imbalance idea though. I have like 80% vs orcs or something because I always use unusual builds(lich tower push, ghouls, fast expo, TeD fiends etc) and a lot of bnet orcs cant do anything but cookie cut.
wars begin when you will but they do not end when you please
TheAntZ
Profile Blog Joined January 2009
Israel6248 Posts
December 24 2009 05:20 GMT
#13
please put it in simpler terms for us wc3 noobs if you have some time
43084 | Honeybadger: "So july, you're in the GSL finals. How do you feel?!" ~ July: "HUNGRY."
writer22816
Profile Blog Joined September 2008
United States5775 Posts
December 24 2009 08:48 GMT
#14
Does anyone know the TL-equivalent of War3? I'd like to get a little into the game.
8/4/12 never forget, never forgive.
Comeh
Profile Blog Joined July 2008
United States18918 Posts
December 24 2009 09:01 GMT
#15
On December 24 2009 17:48 writer22816 wrote:
Does anyone know the TL-equivalent of War3? I'd like to get a little into the game.

I can't help you too much in terms of forums, but if you would like to see some pro games, here is a good start (with some decent shout casting that is relatively humorous)
http://www.gomtv.net/videos/?page=7&cate=12&sort=regdate&keyfield=&key=
ヽ(⌐■_■)ノヽ(⌐■_■)ノヽ(⌐■_■)ノヽ(⌐■_■)ノヽ(⌐■_■)ノヽ(⌐■_■)ノDELETE ICEFROGヽ(⌐■_■)ノヽ(⌐■_■)ノヽ(⌐■_■)ノヽ(⌐■_■)ノヽ(⌐■_■)ノヽ(⌐■_■)ノヽ(
ArvickHero
Profile Blog Joined October 2007
10387 Posts
December 24 2009 09:14 GMT
#16
So how come Blizzard hasn't tried to balance this seemingly horribly imba MU?
Writerptrk
WheelOfTime
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Canada331 Posts
December 24 2009 09:39 GMT
#17
On December 24 2009 18:14 ArvickHero wrote:
So how come Blizzard hasn't tried to balance this seemingly horribly imba MU?


Same reason why they left zvp the way it is
Intr3pid
Profile Blog Joined November 2009
Switzerland336 Posts
December 24 2009 12:49 GMT
#18
WC3 is just a horrible horrible game, shit like creeping and dropluck just has nothing to do in a competitive game IMO. Aside from that, would be nicer if you translated your finding into a SC or more general setting since like said, WC3 ist just a horrible game.
dijpak
Profile Joined December 2009
United States2 Posts
December 24 2009 12:53 GMT
#19
A few bits of info for those who don't play war3.

Book of the dead summons a group of skeletons for a limited time, and the item is consumed. Most races can dispel summons but Undead has to reach tier3 tech, get an upgrade, and have the proper unit to use dispel. On the other hand the Orc can clear out the creeps possibly holding the book with their hero and 3 grunts (the orc starting unit).

Most games, an Undead does not expand at all. A fast expansion at the beginning is a drastically different opening.

There are quite a few articles and such going around on pro sites about whether Orc is imbalanced, particularly against UD, and the current prevailing opinion in the community is that they are.

The best site for Warcraft 3 is www.wcreplays.com. There is a LOT of content to be viewed between the replay archive, audio commentaries, and forums.

There is truly no cure for the poor spawn position on LT. When you begin a game with UD you need to place your first buildings with a specific strategy in mind. It's a bit like rushing with 6 zerglings. At around the 1 minute mark you begin training your hero, and the dreadlord is good at fast expo but terrible at fighting a regular game versus orc.

You could theoretically follow the blademaster around while invis and steal the book, but the potion might not become available soon enough to you while the Orc can creep the middle very soon in the game. Besides you don't have any spare units to use for keeping tabs on either the orc or the fountain, the distances involved are far, and the blademaster is invisible himself much of the time making finding him not so easy.
Oh fudge!
MrHoon *
Profile Blog Joined April 2008
10183 Posts
December 24 2009 12:56 GMT
#20
Im serious, there has got to be better melee map makers in the War3 Community

Turtle Rock and Gnoll Woods make me rage whenever I see them play on those maps
OVER AND OVER

goddamnit get a better map pool
dats racist
dijpak
Profile Joined December 2009
United States2 Posts
December 24 2009 13:40 GMT
#21
Agreed, I've been waiting for tourneys to start leaving the ladder maps behind and start making their own balance changes via maps.
Oh fudge!
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