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Correct Lynches:
6:2 night 6
6:1 day 7
5:1 night 7
5:0 day 8 - Town win
1 Mislynch:
6:2 night 6
5:2 day 7
4:2 night 7 - LYLO
4:1 day 8
3:1 night 8
3:0 day 9 - Town win
2 Mislynches
6:2 night 6
5:2 day 7
4:2 night 7 - LYLO
3:2 day 8
2:2 night 8 - Scum win
If I´m correct, and I´m not 100% I am, we have one mislynch left, no more. There is the possibility that there´s a vigi left, but even that will only delay Scum a little, if at all. If the next lynch doesn´t hit scum or identify the rest of scum, then we´re done.
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On May 21 2011 17:18 Xedat wrote:
After this night it will be 6 town 2 mafia, time is running out.
I just looked at the votes, the only one ho voted for Impervious and Jaminz is Mig, but I don't think that this is too scummy as 3/4 of all people with many votes (Imp,Jaminz,redtooth) have flipped green, the only one who also had many votes was orgolove and I am quite certain that he is not red.
Dropbear has been on AirbladeOrange for a while, if he could link to an analysis of AirbladeOrange I could be inclined to vote for him today.
I have the feeling that one mafia hides beteen the more inactive players and one between the active players, but you can't be too certain on that.
Here on AO. A few things have changed since then though, I had him tied to ilovejonn. He still hasn't really done enough to make me leave him alone tbh.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On May 21 2011 18:58 Forumite wrote:
Correct Lynches:
6:2 night 6
6:1 day 7
5:1 night 7
5:0 day 8 - Town win
1 Mislynch:
6:2 night 6
5:2 day 7
4:2 night 7 - LYLO
4:1 day 8
3:1 night 8
3:0 day 9 - Town win
2 Mislynches
6:2 night 6
5:2 day 7
4:2 night 7 - LYLO
3:2 day 8
2:2 night 8 - Scum win
If I´m correct, and I´m not 100% I am, we have one mislynch left, no more. There is the possibility that there´s a vigi left, but even that will only delay Scum a little, if at all. If the next lynch doesn´t hit scum or identify the rest of scum, then we´re done.
I think you're missing a lynch. It will be 8:2 after night 6, won't it?
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Correct, kitaman27. So it´s 2 mislynches before LYLO, not 1.
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On May 21 2011 19:12 DropBear wrote:Here on AO. A few things have changed since then though, I had him tied to ilovejonn. He still hasn't really done enough to make me leave him alone tbh.
This has actually furthered my convictions that AO is not scum. Why is that? Because there are two or three points you made that don't quite seem to point to him being scum. I have noticed in my attempts at analysis in mafia games that if there is just one moment while writing something up that I go "hmm...this doesn't make sense if he's scum", then the player is probably a townie.
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I would really appreciate it if everyone looked over kitaman27's posts
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/search.php?q=&t=c&f=31&u=kitaman27&gb=date
I was convinced he was town, but I was also somewhat intrigued by how he seemed to attack almost anyone who posted in the beginning of the game. He doesn't outright accuse them of being scum, but generally just pressures them. I would like to get the thoughts of a few other players on him.
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These two quotes are from page 97. I'm getting more suspicious of DropBear because he continues not only to push me without any good evidence but also he has a pretty bad voting record. These two posts were when sinani206 was under a lot of pressure and DropBear seems to be publicly trying to help him out and gain him some town credit by urging him to defend himself then repeatedly states he now thinks sinani to be town. I'm not convinced on DropBear but he might be a good candidate for the other goon assuming the godfather is a more experienced player.
On May 14 2011 03:09 DropBear wrote:Show nested quote +On May 14 2011 03:08 sinani206 wrote:
Do we know if we are Godfather? I heard somewhere that Godfather appears as town, is that why I don't know? Because if not I think I'm town. Come on man. If you are town defend yourself. Explain the reasoning behind your votes, behind your arguments. I don't think you are mafia anymore. Make a roleclaim, what role are you?
On May 14 2011 03:15 DropBear wrote:Ok that's cool. What role are you? Vanilla Townie? Detective? Third Party Planar Dragon? Check your role PM from GMarshal. You can't post it in the thread but you can tell us what role you are. The way things are going you are almost certainly going to be lynched. Do you want to be lynched? I don't think you're mafia anymore man, even though I voted for you on Day 3. If you are town you owe it to everyone to defend yourself. Tell us why you voted the way you did. Tell us why you never defended yourself yesterday. Tell us why you said you'd post analysis on day 3 and never did. If you give a satisfactory explanation I will move heaven and earth to save you.
ilovejonn gets town credit because of this (probably coached) attack post by sinani after there was a good chance he was getting lynched:
On May 14 2011 13:42 sinani206 wrote:ilovejonn This is ilovejonn's list of votes: 1) kurumi2) beneather
cthsaza3) eternalmisfit4) sinani206ilovejonnoroglove Hmm.... So far, 3 greens and a blue. Kurumi bandwagon day 1 and EternalMisfit bandwagon day 3, with no real explanations for either. He is also experienced, so he can't be forgiven for not explaining. Today, first he votes on my bandwagon, then after I defend myself and DropBear accepts the defense, he switches to himself, saying this: Show nested quote +On May 14 2011 04:06 ilovejonn wrote:
I'm townie. Why not lynch for information? We have mislynches at disposal. And what defense do you guys possibly want from me. I've been on all the wrong lynches and have no credibility in this game any more, flipping will probably provide more than what I can say. Why do you first roleclaim townie and then tell the town to lynch you for information? You want us to call a bluff, to believe that you are a Townie that will sacrifice himself for the town, and then leave you alive. But you aren't. You wanted us to leave you alone so that you could stay alive and the Mafia would keep their 2KP. Then, after Varpulis' post: Show nested quote +On May 14 2011 04:40 Varpulis wrote:
It's good policy to lynch scum. If you're town, you should help us lynch scum, not help us lynch you.
Wrong =/= scum. Saying "I give up, just lynch me" makes me very suspicious. orgolove did it, and people aren't discussing him anymore, so you're going to try it too? You post this and switch back to oroglove: Show nested quote +On May 14 2011 05:34 ilovejonn wrote:
I still think orgolove is GF. Check his posts before 1802 and after.
Like people mentioned, he gives us a flawed data sheet to follow (I know it's flawed because I'm townie but managed to accumulate the most points due to a) not switching to Amber because I was away, b) sticking with my analysis on EM which turned out to be wrong.), says that Dropbear and I are top targets based on the point system he made out of thin air, and then when we lynch EM he goes, guys I convinced you soooooo hard that you guys deserve to lose if you don't follow my spreadsheet.
You didn't convince us on anything dude, you laid out information we all could have observed and placed some arbitrary points into it, then said you're disgusted with the town after a mislynch. That's some major convincing you did.
And you guys are right, why waste a vote on myself. I'll use MY vote on who I think is scum. Because you realize that Varpulis is right, you switch to orgolove, to act more like a townie and act like you are trying to kill the scum. But you just use the same arguments against him that everyone else has. Another bandwagon. You realize that this is 3 band wagons you have joined, all without adding to the accusation? I know where my vote is going today. ##Vote: ilovejonn
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On May 22 2011 01:03 chaos13 wrote:
I was convinced he was town, but I was also somewhat intrigued by how he seemed to attack almost anyone who posted in the beginning of the game. He doesn't outright accuse them of being scum, but generally just pressures them. I would like to get the thoughts of a few other players on him.
Err that's called scum hunting. Why wouldn't I pressure people to see if they slip up?
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Scumhunting is hard. I think orgolove is scum, but whenever I look elsewhere it gets tough, partly because of the tunneling on orgolove, everything else gets distorted around it, like ilj, orgolove has been tunneling on him for so damn long.
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United States22154 Posts
Night 3
The Lich has cast a spell and it is night once again! However in the first half of the night terrible, terrible things happened. GMarshal was found dead again, a bullet in the back of his head, a smile plastered on his face. Node was but a few feet away, also dead, the gun that killed GMarshal held tightly in his hand, black bile dripping down his chin. The town meeting hall exploded, scattering bits of the two lovers, tnkted and jackal58 who had met for a midnight escapade.
GMarshal the town aligned Bomb Nut is dead
tnkted the town aligned Arms Dealer is dead
jackal58 the mafia aligned Angel of Damnation is dead
Node the Insane Wizard is dead
these players full role PM's will not be revealed do the effects of the Obufiscator, which may have also caused some of the flips to be inaccurate, it is now night again, so please remember to PM both Node and I your night actions
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Day 7![[image loading]](http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_fI2Vq19yAig/SM-UwPx3jDI/AAAAAAAAACE/41aOQ0IBRA8/s320/dead-detective.gif)
The rain pounded down from above. Forumite lay face-down in a puddle, the blood from the wound in his head mixing with the water beneath him.
His hand, outstretched, held a slip of paper.
“... is mafia!”, it read, the ink smeared by the rain and completely illegible.
Forumite the Detective is dead.
And now.... Day 7! Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
....What? Is that a serious post?
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Oh shit. We had a DT. We need to go back and read over his posts again and see what he was saying about players.
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kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
Whoa 200+ posts? I think I'll save that for tomorrow -_-
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Shit. I don't remember him pushing anyone or defending anyone hard recently.
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He voted orgolove.
And DropBear, where was that big post you promised?
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United States4714 Posts
Forumite voted for orgolove 2 days in a row. So almost certainly he checked orgolove and orgolove has to either be the last non godfather mafia or a miller.
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On May 16 2011 11:59 Forumite wrote:
lol
For what it´s worth, I say Orgolove is Scum
On May 16 2011 18:26 Forumite wrote:
If those are the prime suspects then my vote goes on orgolove. Besides being the scummiest target, it should clear or doom ilj, because of how long orgolove has been tunneling on him.
##Vote: orgolove
On May 18 2011 11:40 Forumite wrote:
We need 3 to switch, including Mlg, in order to lynch Impervious. I could help, although I´d prefer a lynch of orgolove.
On May 18 2011 11:56 Forumite wrote:
Redtooth die anyway. If you don´t want to lynch Imp after this stunt, then consider orgolove.
On May 19 2011 15:55 Forumite wrote:
I know who the chatic voteswitching of Jaminz saved.
##Vote: orgolove
On May 20 2011 06:13 Forumite wrote:Either, or? We can´t lynch two, so we want to lynch the one that give the most information. orgolove is suspicious because of his actions, votes and analysis, while jaminz because of his lurking and voteswitching, but if these are the candidates, who is the best candidate for a lynch? If we lynch jaminz then we don´t get any information on scum. If we lynch jaminz then we can´t KNOW if orgolove is scum, since the voteswitching could just have been a way to throw us off. If we lynch orgolove then jaminz looks suspicious still. If we lynch orgolove then jaminz or imp are probably scum, and ilj is cleared. Because the main incriminating action of Jaminz does not connect him to others, he´s actually a worse lynch than orgolove, whose activity and actions give us much more to work with once he flips, no matter which way he flips. I´m not clearing jaminz, not at all, but right now I´m more interested in what orgolove is up to. Also I´m a helper; Show nested quote +On May 20 2011 03:04 orgolove wrote:
Yet ilovejonn still lives. Go ahead - lynch me, if that'll give a 1-1 exchange I'm all for it. But I'm still 100% convinced that ilovejonn is scum. Do I make sense?
On May 19 2011 23:11 Forumite wrote:
I´ve had my eye on orgolove far longer than jaminz.
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United States4714 Posts
I am really worried he might have hit a miller since non of them have flipped but I think it is by far the most solid lead we have to go with.
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Alright, I'm down to AirbladeOrange, Ilovejonn, and orgolove as candidates for my vote today. The post ilovejonn just quoted makes me think that Forumite hadn't yet checked orgolove, and that he hadn't actually checked a scum. If I was a DT and checked a scum player, I would be pushing for their lynch as hard as I could, complete with full analysis of those players.
I will go back through his posts and find any that might be referring to a DT check.
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EPT![[image loading]](http://art.ngfiles.com/images/56/shayphis_endless-night.png)
