EPTTL Mafia XXXIX - Page 118
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
chaos13
Canada885 Posts
| ||
Mig
United States4714 Posts
On May 22 2011 12:12 chaos13 wrote: Alright, I'm down to AirbladeOrange, Ilovejonn, and orgolove as candidates for my vote today. The post ilovejonn just quoted makes me think that Forumite hadn't yet checked orgolove, and that he hadn't actually checked a scum. If I was a DT and checked a scum player, I would be pushing for their lynch as hard as I could, complete with full analysis of those players. I will go back through his posts and find any that might be referring to a DT check. I disagree because forumite voted for him 2 days in a row. So he had one night that he could dt check someone in between his votes. For him to vote for him twice in a row I think he almost certainly checked him. I think forumite was just trying to not to push too hard and tip off he was a dt which would lead to him being killed. | ||
|
ilovejonn
Canada2548 Posts
| ||
|
chaos13
Canada885 Posts
I'll report my findings when I'm done. | ||
|
Mig
United States4714 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On May 11 2011 22:27 Forumite wrote: ANALYSIS: Why orgolove is Scum ____________ Early posts. + Show Spoiler + Defending confirmed scum On May 04 2011 14:46 orgolove wrote: Is Irish a new player? Could make sense if he's new - he wouldn't want his first game end so quickly. Diverting attention to Town On page 35, after EM posted his excelsheet, orgolove posted that the ones who looked suspicious to him was EM, chaoser, kurumi (and DropBear), two of which are confirmed [green]Town[green]. On May 06 2011 04:15 orgolove wrote: Great post. We need to look at the people who've been pointing fingers indiscriminately, like 5, 18, and 22. On May 06 2011 04:20 orgolove wrote: Oh and 17 too. Trying to look helpfull Nothing came of this, even though the spreadsheet could be easily recreated. On May 06 2011 04:23 orgolove wrote: Can you give me this spreadsheet? I may have some pattern recognition software that I might be able to gather, and coordinate the time of the accusatory posts with the contents to see if a particular group of players (reds) were on-line and accusing the same person at around the same point in time. Tunneling on helpfull Town-leader, redtooth + Show Spoiler + Following are a few posts that implicate redtooth as scum, 9 of them. After the first 5 posts against redtooth, he suddenly becomes convinced redtooth is Town, but quickly after, he posts 4 times urging a lynch on redtooth, including a ##Vote. On May 07 2011 09:30 orgolove wrote:He's really putting serious effort into his posts, and he's trying to trick things without being afraid of being revealed. I can't detect any hint of red-ness (pun intended). Trying to save Amber by lynching a probable Town as an information-lynch On May 08 2011 09:11 orgolove wrote: I really think redtooth either needs to be checked by a dt or be lynched asap. He's been acting plenty scummy enough, and his kills will give us plenty of information both on Amber and others involved in this dispute. A pre-night posting of useless information + Show Spoiler + During Night 2, just 15minutes before the daypost. It didn´t show us anything that the voting thread didn´t allready show. Seriously, the post contained NO usefull data. On May 10 2011 11:47 orgolove wrote: This is in progress - I'm posting this just in case I'm killed in the night (though not likely) [url blocked] The excel file contains the vote time and target for the past 2 days. It's quite interesting. I'll post a full analysis after day breaks and I have a few more identifiers. First attempt at analysis, during day 3. + Show Spoiler + http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=216644¤tpage=74#1473 The analysis was full of conditions that turn Cthsazsas from +1 to -17, conditions easily tweaked, added or removed to get the desired outcome, or even asking his scumbuddies to vote in a way that makes them look Town to his conditions. This is also referenced later to try and get DropBear lynched. He sends out his FoS, summarized in the next spoiler FoS and votes + Show Spoiler + Focused accusations. Has been trying to get these lynched since Day 1 FoS DropBear 6 FoS Ilovejonn 2 FoS AirbladeOrange 2 FoS VarpuliS 2 FoS Eternalmisfit 2 FoS redtooth 9 Votes on helpfull Town-leaders, Town, and one post on Amber, which he milked for Town-points. Votes! Day 1 ##Vote: Kurumi Day 2 ##vote: Amber[Light] -(tieing Amber with Cthsazsa, for which his analysis makes him more Town) Day 3 ##Vote: ilovejonn His latest post, which was 27h ago. He´s confident that Town will mislynch, so he´s been lurking ever since, there´s no need to interfere. ____________ Conclusion + Show Spoiler + Unhelpfull analysis, the few times he gives it, voting on Confirmed Town or in a way that is used only to gain Town-credit. Defends Irish and Amber. Lurks now that noone is thinking about lynching him. Scum. This post was on page 83 so for the last 35 pages forumite has been pushing orgolove. There is a 0% chance he wouldn't have checked him in this time frame. | ||
|
Mig
United States4714 Posts
I know forumite was pretty close to confirmed town after he pushed sinani for so long but if I were mafia I probably would have let him live if orgolove was town. | ||
|
chaos13
Canada885 Posts
Night 1 - Beneather Night 2 - GGQ Night 3 - chaos13 Night 4 - sinani206 Night 5 - orgolove Night 6 - N/A | ||
|
chaos13
Canada885 Posts
| ||
|
Mig
United States4714 Posts
| ||
|
chaos13
Canada885 Posts
I really hope orgolove isn't a miller. I'm just going to go ahead and vote him now. I think the other scum is either AO or ilovejonn | ||
|
chaos13
Canada885 Posts
| ||
|
Mig
United States4714 Posts
I think we need to seriously consider that kita could be mafia, and the likely GF. He is an active, good, veteran player and he hasn't been killed yet. It seems really suspicious to me that the mafia is just going after likely townies and not someone who is a good known player. Along with that his analysis of jaminz and impervious ended up being completely wrong, which looks suspicious coming from a good player. If you look at his voting day1- voted for irish late in the day when it didn't matter (a good way to get town cred for voting for an unhelpful mafia member) day2- voted for cth late in the day when the lynch was close between him and amber (could have tried to save a potentially helpful mafia member) day3- voted sinani day4- voted sinani - makes him look a bit better but sinani was worthless, would have been a good mafia to vote for to try and build town cred day 5- voted impervious (town) day 6 - voted jaminz (town) And overall I just have an off feeling about kita's posts. I just don't really buy that mafia made AO or elmizzit gf and xedat having to be replaced is almost certainly not. There is a small chance they could have made chaos or db gf, but I think db is still too inexperienced to get picked and this is chaos' first game on tl. So I think either ilj or kita must be the gf. And after rereading iljs posts I get more of a town feel from him. If orgolove flips red I think we can just about clear ilj and lynch kita. If orgolove flips miller then we should decide between those 2 for who we should lynch. | ||
|
chaos13
Canada885 Posts
On May 22 2011 13:55 Mig wrote: I was very suspicious of AO before for how little he has contributed but now I am not so sure. What made your opinion on him change? | ||
|
Mig
United States4714 Posts
Formite is an inexperienced townie who is pushing hard to lynch someone they know is town. Kita is an experienced vet who most people think is town. So it seems to me that if orgolove is green it would be much better for mafia to kill kita instead of formite. If orgolove flips red I think it mostly clears ilj and we can safely lynch kita. If orgolove flips miller we still lynch kita because then it doesn't really make sense for them to kill formite and let kita live. | ||
|
Mig
United States4714 Posts
On May 22 2011 14:00 chaos13 wrote: What made your opinion on him change? Ah I worded it a bit wrong, I am still suspicious of AO. But if you look at AO/db/elmizzit they all have suspicious things about them. I think there is a decent chance one of them is mafia but there is a high likelihood that we would mislynch trying to find them. We have a better chance of lynching a mafia at this point by focusing on trying to find the gf (after orgolove). | ||
|
chaos13
Canada885 Posts
On May 22 2011 14:05 Mig wrote: And if orgolove does flip miller we really have to consider why the mafia would kill formite instead of kita. Formite is an inexperienced townie who is pushing hard to lynch someone they know is town. Kita is an experienced vet who most people think is town. So it seems to me that if orgolove is green it would be much better for mafia to kill kita instead of formite. If orgolove flips red I think it mostly clears ilj and we can safely lynch kita. If orgolove flips miller we still lynch kita because then it doesn't really make sense for them to kill formite and let kita live. And what do we do if orgolove flips vanilla townie? | ||
|
Mig
United States4714 Posts
On May 22 2011 14:11 chaos13 wrote: And what do we do if orgolove flips vanilla townie? We kill ourselves because our DT inexplicably just tunneled and voted for someone twice without checking them. I think the odds of that are so low I wouldn't even give it serious thought before it actually happened. | ||
|
kitaman27
United States9244 Posts
On May 22 2011 13:55 Mig wrote: I think we need to seriously consider that kita could be mafia, and the likely GF. He is an active, good, veteran player and he hasn't been killed yet. It seems really suspicious to me that the mafia is just going after likely townies and not someone who is a good known player. You do realize this is probably why I'm still alive right? Scum saw how much I wanted jaminz dead so they allowed me to live until I pushed him and he flipped green and then use the godfather suspicions against me to get me lynched late game, simply because I've played a couple more games than everyone else. That's weak. On May 22 2011 13:55 Mig wrote: Along with that his analysis of jaminz and impervious ended up being completely wrong, which looks suspicious coming from a good player. So if good players are wrong that makes them scum? jaminz and impervious were both acting scummy. I stand by my votes. You even agreed enough to vote for both of them. On May 22 2011 13:55 Mig wrote: day2- voted for cth late in the day when the lynch was close between him and amber (could have tried to save a potentially helpful mafia member) You're ignoring the fact that I was the first person to call a day vig on Amber when I saw how close the lynch was. If both our day vig's weren't completely absent this game, I'm confidant they would have shot. Would a scum really risk losing their best player and a kp when Amber appeared to be relatively safe for another day before the chaoser dt claim? On May 22 2011 13:55 Mig wrote: day3- voted sinani day4- voted sinani - makes him look a bit better but sinani was worthless, would have been a good mafia to vote for to try and build town cred Again, a scum kp was on the line. At this point you are tunneling as you call all 3 of my votes against scum an "attempt to build town cred". On May 22 2011 13:55 Mig wrote: And overall I just have an off feeling about kita's posts. Yet you conveniently omit any. On May 22 2011 13:55 Mig wrote: If orgolove flips red I think we can just about clear ilj and lynch kita. How does this make sense? How am I connected to orgo? I'm not sure of the motives behind your post, but either way, it seems that we are in agreement that orgo dies today. | ||
|
chaos13
Canada885 Posts
-You deflect my question about AO, and then don't fully answer it -You advocate lynching kitaman27, an experienced player whom everyone thinks is town -You say we need to find the GF after we lynch orgolove. You seem to have information that I don't, seeing that as far as I'm aware, orgolove himself could be the godfather. Your votes are also rather incriminating. The only time you have voted for mafia is the day we lynched sinani206, and on that day he was 99% confirmed scum. AirbladeOrange, DropBear, and kitaman27, what do you think of Mig? | ||
|
Mig
United States4714 Posts
On May 22 2011 14:19 chaos13 wrote: I have a few problems with what you're saying: -You deflect my question about AO, and then don't fully answer it -You advocate lynching kitaman27, an experienced player whom everyone thinks is town -You say we need to find the GF after we lynch orgolove. You seem to have information that I don't, seeing that as far as I'm aware, orgolove himself could be the godfather. Your votes are also rather incriminating. The only time you have voted for mafia is the day we lynched sinani206, and on that day he was 99% confirmed scum. AirbladeOrange, DropBear, and kitaman27, what do you think of Mig? Orgolove can't be gf if we assume that he came back as red for forumites dt check. If you look at my last long post where I talked about suspects I thought he was a likely gf candidate before this. I voted for amber who was also mafia. But I agree my voting is still somewhat suspicious. | ||
| ||
