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On March 14 2019 11:57 jy_9876543210 wrote: Macsed's response:
"说下当时情况吧,第一盘打完我觉得这个人很菜,当然所有人都和我这么说,我也觉得他很菜,然后第二盘才会选择一个低保rush因为我觉得只要过去把他门口的兵营打了就能赢,但是我过去看到他家里有个兵营没开气我以为他要开2矿,我就封了他得气,一旦封了他拿什么打我低保?可我万万没想到他这个战术是rail教他的,因为在职业内战里面这种战术是不成立的,所以我就没多想。打完这场比赛rail跑过来疯狂炫耀说是我教的,因为他知道我会觉得他是菜鸟肯定会想快点结束,然后就家里一个兵营外面3个兵营来骗我。果真我被骗到了,当时被骗到了乱导致各种失误,但是我认为就算不失误这一盘我也赢不了,因为我家里已经挡不住了,他只要在外面开个基地农民传出来也是随便赢。哎都怪我,太丢人了" My translation: "The situation was, after the first map I thought this guy is weak, of course that's also what everyone's been telling me, and I felt the same. So on the second map I decided to cannon rush since I thought I could win by destroying the gateway in his base, but when I saw his base, there's a gateway but no gas, so I thought he's gonna expand, and I blocked his gas, so he can't stop my cannon rush. But what I didn't know was that it's rail who taught him this strategy, because he knew that I would try to finish this game quickly since I thought my opponent is weak, and he tricked me by one gateway in main base and 3 proxies outside. That totally got me, and resulted in a lot of mistakes from me. But I think even if I didn't make those mistakes, I still wouldn't win that map, since I couldn't defend my base, he could just make another base and recall the probes. It's my fault, this is an embarrassing game." |
On March 16 2019 17:24 Wardi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote:MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true. I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything. I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai This is incorrect. A reputable betting site would never, and I stress, never, void bets because it lost money. That would be extremely bad for the site. There would be tons of angry gamblers how would claim they got robbed out of money, because the site can't take losses. So I'm stressing, that is completely false. Only time they would ever void bets is because they want to protect customers.
When Pinnacle voided the bets during 2015 match fixing scandal (you can read about it here: 2015 Match-Fixing Scandal), the games hadn't begun yet or winnings paid out. The threshold for voiding bets is much lower, because nobody loses money, the bets are just cancelled.
Here the automatic triggers didn't happen in Pinnacle (I have good guesses why not, but would rather not disclose them, since it gives more info how to successfully bypass them). So the winnings had already been paid out, by the time anyone even messaged them. Nobody at Pinnacle is going to look at the match, they operate on their own systems. It is highly unlikely that they would do manual review at this point.
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On March 16 2019 19:30 Wardi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 19:26 NinjaNight wrote:On March 16 2019 19:23 Pangpootata wrote:On March 16 2019 19:20 opisska wrote:On March 16 2019 19:17 Pangpootata wrote:On March 16 2019 17:24 Wardi wrote:On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote:MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true. I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything. I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai Making a post to explain how betting sites work, because not all betting sites will lose money from match fixing. Some sites are bookmakers i.e. they bet against the punters. These sites will lose money from match fixing. Some sites are market makers aka betting exchanges. The betting odds are floating and essentially people are betting against each other, with the site taking a small profit through arbitrage. The site will earn no matter what the outcome of the game is. I am not familiar with chinese sites, but pinnacle is definitely a betting exchange. It is not in the interest of betting exchanges to void matches because they make money regardless of the outcome. Unless I am missing something, this cannot be that straightforward. They set odds before anyone places a bet, don't they? So if only bets on the eventually winning side are made, they can't make profit because nobody loses money. Yes, but if only bets on the winning side are made, the algorithm will change the odds such that they become extremely low, making the reverse bet very attractive. It's true that the market maker can lose money when the liquidity is low. But on betting sites that have sufficient customers, the market has enough liquidity to absorb shocks from sudden big bets. Exactly. Not voiding the bet is not great evidence. Neither is all of the speculation being thrown around
I know you're not very technical but come on, try to look at the game, it's as bad as Byul vs MarineKing.
Sad thing tho, he looks like a nice guy.
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On March 16 2019 22:31 mierin wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 20:19 Penev wrote:On March 16 2019 20:06 JasonOfAeson wrote:On March 16 2019 19:56 Penev wrote: The weird thing is someone bet on Seventy91 to take one map of off one of his opponents, which is unlikely, and he (or they) bet exactly on the one that have him do so. Not on any of the other ones.
It's really not that weird when you consider who the other players are. If you think he might take a game in a volatile mirror matchup, are you going to think it's against DnS (who is think is the more solid player) or MacSed who (according to the thread) is transitioning away from serious progaming? Bly is a volatile player, who could throw a game by cheesing, and I know nothing about EnDerr. But it's not like there isn't a massive skill disparity between MacSed's prospective opponents. Now you are forgetting the line movement is already suspicious on its own. You should take everything into account simultaneously to see how.. rare this all is. "So you say there's a chance?" Yes, that's why an investigation is needed to, hopefully, get to the truth. Don't you think the information we have warrants an investigation? The majority of this guy's 20 posts have been in this thread alone. That alone should tell you something.
What does it tell you, chief? That I, the mighty MacSed, with my pristine English set up this account over a year ago knowing one day I'd need it as part of my long held plan to game fix in WESG 2019. Damn, if only such a keen investigative mind like yours didn't exist to catch me out. Truly I'd be a rich man and far beyond suspicion.
But, honestly, you witch hunters have become so desperate that you're accusing me of a malicious motivation simply because I have the gall to question whether or not you're right. And now you've got a fella accusing Wardii of orchestrating the whole thing.
I could be wrong. But do you know who I deeply distrust? People with the emotional depth of toddlers who are one thousand percent sure they're right and resort to personal attacks and conspiracy theories to discredit people who disagree with them because they lack the mental faculties to form a cogent counter argument.
Those people, I think, should not be the ones managing the gallows.
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On March 16 2019 20:19 Penev wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 20:06 JasonOfAeson wrote:On March 16 2019 19:56 Penev wrote: The weird thing is someone bet on Seventy91 to take one map of off one of his opponents, which is unlikely, and he (or they) bet exactly on the one that have him do so. Not on any of the other ones.
It's really not that weird when you consider who the other players are. If you think he might take a game in a volatile mirror matchup, are you going to think it's against DnS (who is think is the more solid player) or MacSed who (according to the thread) is transitioning away from serious progaming? Bly is a volatile player, who could throw a game by cheesing, and I know nothing about EnDerr. But it's not like there isn't a massive skill disparity between MacSed's prospective opponents. Now you are forgetting the line movement is already suspicious on its own. You should take everything into account simultaneously to see how.. rare this all is. "So you say there's a chance?" Yes, that's why an investigation is needed to, hopefully, get to the truth. Don't you think the information we have warrants an investigation?
I'm just responding to the point as you raised it. I fully admit I could be wrong, and have never said there shouldn't be an investigation. Fact is half of you would happily destroy his life without any investigation or claim if there is one the fix is already in. That's what I take issue with.
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On March 16 2019 19:06 JasonOfAeson wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 18:52 sertas wrote:On March 16 2019 18:47 JasonOfAeson wrote:On March 16 2019 18:38 sertas wrote: Ive checked this thread a few time and i keep seeing people with 0-10 posts coming here giving super stupid reasons to defend macsed. I wonder how many of these accounts are macsed himself, just saying. Should be looked into who this guy thats making 10+ accounts to come here and write stuff is. If the arguments are 'super stupid' they should be quite easy for you to dismantle. I mean, really, think about it, chief -- you're the one who's now arguing on the basis of post counts and essentially suggesting that there is a conspiracy... and yet... we're supposed to be the stupid ones? If you defend macssed and think this wasnt matchfixing you are not the brightest person. Also wouldnt surprise me if all these 1 post guys giving long statements what an amazing guy macsed is and that he would never cheat comes from the same ip, given how bad the fix was. Yeah, of course, man. MacSed with the multi-account damage control propaganda campaign, but also too stupid to make his loss look as convincing as possible. Match fixed games don't look match fixed. That's how people get away with them for so long. Even the best player in the world can play an absolute trash can of a game from time to time. Some of my worst games are when I didn't take my opponent seriously at all.
I don't want to participate the conversation again, but clearly, I was taken as "MacSed" as well. Just want to add a few more words:
Come on... If the True MacSed has my level of English, the conversation should have ended way earlier. He can come and clear his own name. But the truth is, most people working in the Chinese SC2 Community feel themselves incompetent in English skills (remember F91's "said calculation" joke), and that's why when things like this broke out, Chinese players cannot participate in the conversation...
This account is a new account, but if you see my posts, you can clearly see the info I'm offering to help folks understand why Sed would be an idiot if he choose to match-fix with an unknown foreign player, take such humiliation for small money (otherwise, big trans-border flow will be recorded by China's finance system for sure). I would be really surprised that a 30+ would be that stupid.
Lots of Chinese SC2 fans did not appreciate socio-cultural contexts in the West, however, what I feel here at TL is the same, people just so ignorant that when someone come in offering additional info (Wardi's comment on the way offline event is scheduled is a great example, thanks man), they just turn their heads away.
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On March 17 2019 00:07 PaulB1337 wrote: I will be not surprised , if Wardi was the one , who did matchfix with MacSed's map against Seventy91, and then he promised MacSed those money in real cash , no bank transfers required. Wardi seems to be pretty known with pinnacle He defends that miserable chinese fixer with no reason, game was thrown 1000% , Wardi with all his 5k MMR experience won't ever find an excuse for MacSed to wall-off three times in a row with a photon cannon. Im also super well known with Pinnacle's system and i can guarantee , Pinnacle will find suspicious activity and void your bet only if tens thousands of dollars were lost by Pinnacle there. Only if they are negative balanced. And as i written above that match was positive in cash for Pinnacle, as more people did bet on MacSed's 2-0 win, than on Seventy91's map.
How are you so knowledgeable about pinnacles bet voiding criteria and by what measure can you guarantee it? Do you work for them? Are you the one setting their policy?
This is my problem. When people start talking absolute conjecture and try to stamp it with a guarantee. And then try to use their self stamped 'facts' to support their argument. I think if Pinnacle put a bet up on whether you actually have information to back up what you're saying the odds would be long, boyo. But by all means prove me wrong with some actual self supporting evidence.
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On March 17 2019 01:50 JasonOfAeson wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2019 00:07 PaulB1337 wrote: I will be not surprised , if Wardi was the one , who did matchfix with MacSed's map against Seventy91, and then he promised MacSed those money in real cash , no bank transfers required. Wardi seems to be pretty known with pinnacle He defends that miserable chinese fixer with no reason, game was thrown 1000% , Wardi with all his 5k MMR experience won't ever find an excuse for MacSed to wall-off three times in a row with a photon cannon. Im also super well known with Pinnacle's system and i can guarantee , Pinnacle will find suspicious activity and void your bet only if tens thousands of dollars were lost by Pinnacle there. Only if they are negative balanced. And as i written above that match was positive in cash for Pinnacle, as more people did bet on MacSed's 2-0 win, than on Seventy91's map. How are you so knowledgeable about pinnacles bet voiding criteria and by what measure can you guarantee it? Do you work for them? Are you the one setting their policy? This is my problem. When people start talking absolute conjecture and try to stamp it with a guarantee. And then try to use their self stamped 'facts' to support their argument. I think if Pinnacle put a bet up on whether you actually have information to back up what you're saying the odds would be long, boyo. But by all means prove me wrong with some actual self supporting evidence.
I did several thousand bets on starcraft 2 in 2017-2019, i know very well, how pinnacle reacts on korean matchfix
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On March 17 2019 02:03 PaulB1337 wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2019 01:50 JasonOfAeson wrote:On March 17 2019 00:07 PaulB1337 wrote: I will be not surprised , if Wardi was the one , who did matchfix with MacSed's map against Seventy91, and then he promised MacSed those money in real cash , no bank transfers required. Wardi seems to be pretty known with pinnacle He defends that miserable chinese fixer with no reason, game was thrown 1000% , Wardi with all his 5k MMR experience won't ever find an excuse for MacSed to wall-off three times in a row with a photon cannon. Im also super well known with Pinnacle's system and i can guarantee , Pinnacle will find suspicious activity and void your bet only if tens thousands of dollars were lost by Pinnacle there. Only if they are negative balanced. And as i written above that match was positive in cash for Pinnacle, as more people did bet on MacSed's 2-0 win, than on Seventy91's map. How are you so knowledgeable about pinnacles bet voiding criteria and by what measure can you guarantee it? Do you work for them? Are you the one setting their policy? This is my problem. When people start talking absolute conjecture and try to stamp it with a guarantee. And then try to use their self stamped 'facts' to support their argument. I think if Pinnacle put a bet up on whether you actually have information to back up what you're saying the odds would be long, boyo. But by all means prove me wrong with some actual self supporting evidence. I did several thousand bets on starcraft 2 in 2017-2019, i know very well, how pinnacle reacts on korean matchfix
And how does that give you insight? I've had bets voided, doesn't mean I know shit about what they'd do in every situation. What their investigation involves. Etc. Etc.
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I bet probably 100 times bigger amounts of money , than you do, i know how deep every event can be on pinnacle, and i can analyze deepness/pinnacle's money loss/obviousness of matchfix , how all this collide and results in beeing voided.
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Reading this surreal conversation, I imagined the ending scene of V for Vendetta with everyone wearing a MacSed mask and Team Liquid in the Parliament's place.
Whereas the idea of MacSed suddenly creating multiple accounts to defend himself on this thread is hilarious, you guys have gone too far accusing Wardi to be the one who actually made the bet simply because he doesn't believe the matchfixing happened; that's a low and actually pretty serious accusation you should not dare throwing at someone without having no evidence at all.
I personally find the game MacSed lost suspicious and the various explanations in favor of mafchfixing quite convincing, especially because of the weird coincidence that unlikely result was paying so well on Pinnacle; something weird and unclear happened.
However, we should wait for appropriate investigations to be held before judging MacSed effectively is guilt of matchfixing; screaming for ban this way without retaining doubts before any conclusion is drawn by the competent authorities is the first step in ruining the career and the reputation of a possibly innocent player.
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On March 17 2019 02:17 PaulB1337 wrote: I bet probably 100 times bigger amounts of money , than you do, i know how deep every event can be on pinnacle, and i can analyze deepness/pinnacle's money loss/obviousness of matchfix , how all this collide and results in beeing voided.
But you don't work for Pinnacle. You're not a bookmaker. You don't work for any betting company. You don't work in an eSports betting department. Maybe you have more insight than the average Joe. But you can't guarantee anything. It's an opinion based from anecdotal experience, no matter how much experience. Saying you can guarantee it is just untrue. And that's why I distrust you.
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On March 17 2019 02:20 Xain0n wrote: Reading this surreal conversation, I imagined the ending scene of V for Vendetta with everyone wearing a MacSed mask and Team Liquid in the Parliament's place.
Whereas the idea of MacSed suddenly creating multiple accounts to defend himself on this thread is hilarious, you guys have gone too far accusing Wardi to be the one who actually made the bet simply because he doesn't believe the matchfixing happened; that's a low and actually pretty serious accusation you should not dare throwing at someone without having no evidence at all.
I personally find the game MacSed lost suspicious and the various explanations in favor of mafchfixing quite convincing, especially because of the weird coincidence that unlikely result was paying so well on Pinnacle; something weird and unclear happened.
However, we should wait for appropriate investigations to be held before judging MacSed effectively is guilt of matchfixing; screaming for ban this way without retaining doubts before any conclusion is drawn by the competent authorities is the first step in ruining the career and the reputation of a possibly innocent player.
The funny thing is Wardi is probably about the only person on this forum who would recognise my name cause I've donated to his channel before. Coincidence? 🤔🕵️♂️
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On March 17 2019 02:22 JasonOfAeson wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2019 02:17 PaulB1337 wrote: I bet probably 100 times bigger amounts of money , than you do, i know how deep every event can be on pinnacle, and i can analyze deepness/pinnacle's money loss/obviousness of matchfix , how all this collide and results in beeing voided. But you don't work for Pinnacle. You're not a bookmaker. You don't work for any betting company. You don't work in an eSports betting department. Maybe you have more insight than the average Joe. But you can't guarantee anything. It's an opinion based from anecdotal experience, no matter how much experience. Saying you can guarantee it is just untrue. And that's why I distrust you.
I work with several bookmakers in my country, but im not bookmaker myself, i just know what rules they based on. Bookmaker doesnt have mouth , he cant talk, but people who are close with administration of bookmaker can. And im one of them, so i'm probably most respective user here , if we reffer to betting companies.
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All right. Things are getting ridiculous. Now everyone doesn't agree to put macsed in jail is either chinese or involved. And organizer which sponsors 240k prizepool forces a commentator to match-fix for a few thousend dirty money. If you really know how far betting sites are corrupted, you better spend your money for some good use.
This thread should be closed soon. Arguments about the event have been made. There are not much left for us to discuss but attack eachother. Let's wait if the official investigation finds something.
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Betting thing aside, this was the worst game I have seen from any pro player in 9 years of watching sc2. The excuse he gives isn't some of problem with lag or distress. He just plays dumb. He has a build order advantage throughout the game (don't think he doesn't know that) and makes unimaginable errors consistently and repeatedly (literally the same mistakes repeated after trial and error). Now returning to the issue, he did this in a game that also happened to have an outlandish bet for him to lose a map. I wonder if we would even be talking about this, if it wasn't for Powerfoe losing his bet. There is more than enough evidence for me, I'm all for protecting players, but not when the evidence is overwhelmingly against you. People play bad games, people make mistakes, people lose to much weaker opponents, but not like this. Just because he doesn't admit it, doesn't mean hes innocent. I'm not sure there has been a more obvious incident before honestly, maybe someone can prove me wrong (game-play wise).
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On March 16 2019 19:29 Wardi wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 19:25 Pangpootata wrote:On March 16 2019 19:23 Wardi wrote:On March 16 2019 19:17 Pangpootata wrote:On March 16 2019 17:24 Wardi wrote:On March 16 2019 17:18 HolydaKing wrote:MacSed is btw a commentator for the chinese at todays final stage of WESG, I saw that being mentioned here and after seeing the chinese stream on TakeTV it seems like it's true. I think it's safe to say MacSed intentionally threw the game, whether or not he received money for it is another thing. I got my own suspicions, but they don't add anything. I think when the betting site which would have lost ‘thousands of dollars’ doesn’t void the bet and he is brought on as a caster its probably time to stop saying the game was fixed aiaiai Making a post to explain how betting sites work, because not all betting sites will lose money from match fixing. Some sites are bookmakers i.e. they bet against the punters. These sites will lose money from match fixing. Some sites are market makers aka betting exchanges. The betting odds are floating and essentially people are betting against each other, with the site taking a small profit through arbitrage. The site will earn no matter what the outcome of the game is. I am not familiar with chinese sites, but pinnacle is definitely a betting exchange. It is not in the interest of betting exchanges to void matches because they make money regardless of the outcome. So why would they have voided bets in the past because of suspicious activity? Also for the line to swing so much apparently you have to max bet multiple times on Seventy91 winning a map, if you have multiple max bets to pay out on one result and not many bets are made on the other result you still lose money. This is assuming it was multiple max bets and thousands of dollars, which was the assumption made in the post as to why this was serious. They would void the match if there is strong public opinion that there's matchfixing. Because they want to appear fair and attractpeople to continue betting with them. This doesn't conclude whether matchfixing really occurred or not, because it's just the bookmaker's opinion. Like all posts in this thread are just peoples' opinions. This is all I’m trying to say, that it’s sad to see peoples opinions and not proof be so tainting for a guys career. There is no solid evidence on either side, yet people are posting with conspiracy theories that MacSed is making TL accounts to create support posts :’) Through all of this I just wish people were more open minded rather than be so happy to say ‘he is 100% match fixing its not even funny’ etc. Its a bad attitude Does the word "solid" have a different meaning in Britain than it does here in the U.S.? Because the evidence we have absolutely meets the level of solid. I'd characterize it as "beyond a reasonable doubt" which is the standard for a conviction in a criminal trial and that's without anything other than the betting line, his play throughout the series, and his non-explanation explanation. Bank records or communication between the parties is only necessary for people who don't understand betting lines and Elo ratings.
One of the reason why player's feel like they can match fix with impunity is we have public figures white knighting them regardless of the evidence.
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On March 17 2019 01:44 JasonOfAeson wrote:Show nested quote +On March 16 2019 20:19 Penev wrote:On March 16 2019 20:06 JasonOfAeson wrote:On March 16 2019 19:56 Penev wrote: The weird thing is someone bet on Seventy91 to take one map of off one of his opponents, which is unlikely, and he (or they) bet exactly on the one that have him do so. Not on any of the other ones.
It's really not that weird when you consider who the other players are. If you think he might take a game in a volatile mirror matchup, are you going to think it's against DnS (who is think is the more solid player) or MacSed who (according to the thread) is transitioning away from serious progaming? Bly is a volatile player, who could throw a game by cheesing, and I know nothing about EnDerr. But it's not like there isn't a massive skill disparity between MacSed's prospective opponents. Now you are forgetting the line movement is already suspicious on its own. You should take everything into account simultaneously to see how.. rare this all is. "So you say there's a chance?" Yes, that's why an investigation is needed to, hopefully, get to the truth. Don't you think the information we have warrants an investigation? Fact is half of you would happily destroy his life without any investigation or claim if there is one the fix is already in. That's what I take issue with. A statement like this is just as ridiculous as the "Wardi is in on it" one.
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On March 17 2019 03:11 Penev wrote:Show nested quote +On March 17 2019 01:44 JasonOfAeson wrote:On March 16 2019 20:19 Penev wrote:On March 16 2019 20:06 JasonOfAeson wrote:On March 16 2019 19:56 Penev wrote: The weird thing is someone bet on Seventy91 to take one map of off one of his opponents, which is unlikely, and he (or they) bet exactly on the one that have him do so. Not on any of the other ones.
It's really not that weird when you consider who the other players are. If you think he might take a game in a volatile mirror matchup, are you going to think it's against DnS (who is think is the more solid player) or MacSed who (according to the thread) is transitioning away from serious progaming? Bly is a volatile player, who could throw a game by cheesing, and I know nothing about EnDerr. But it's not like there isn't a massive skill disparity between MacSed's prospective opponents. Now you are forgetting the line movement is already suspicious on its own. You should take everything into account simultaneously to see how.. rare this all is. "So you say there's a chance?" Yes, that's why an investigation is needed to, hopefully, get to the truth. Don't you think the information we have warrants an investigation? Fact is half of you would happily destroy his life without any investigation or claim if there is one the fix is already in. That's what I take issue with. A statement like this is just as ridiculous as the "Wardi is in on it" one.
Read the thread. Literally seen multiple people making statements to this affect.
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On March 17 2019 03:05 p1cass0 wrote: If you really know how far betting sites are corrupted, you better spend your money for some good use.
What do you mean by that?
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it seems this thread has been mucked and muddled by those who really believe macsed forgot how to play for a single game and reverted back to bronze league only return to form.
in that case, no more arguments. obviously no one will be convinced off of their position. sad thing is that there probably won't be a definitive conclusion to the investigation nor a confession so that's pretty much that. i will say though that most tournament organizers in the know outside of china will not TOUCH macsed after this and might hurt chinese participation in non-chinese events moving forward
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