On April 11 2008 15:07 Ace wrote:
BlindAlbino
MTF
HotZhot
all have you voted on right now
BlindAlbino
MTF
HotZhot
all have you voted on right now
From what I see, it's
Plexa
BlindAlbino
MTF
Forum Index > TL Mafia |
aZnvaLiaNce
United States942 Posts
April 11 2008 06:26 GMT
#4201
On April 11 2008 15:07 Ace wrote: BlindAlbino MTF HotZhot all have you voted on right now From what I see, it's Plexa BlindAlbino MTF | ||
Ace
United States16096 Posts
April 11 2008 06:27 GMT
#4202
Plexa should be changing soon. | ||
fusionsdf
Canada15390 Posts
April 11 2008 06:29 GMT
#4203
On April 11 2008 14:49 Plexa wrote: ok <font size='4'>WITHDRAW VOTES FROM AZNVALIANCE</font> today we should be voting seifu + evilmonkey unless someone has any objections? EVERYONE: I reccomend you first vote: evilmonkey second vote: seifu Even though I normally disagree with plexa, I think this is a sound decision. | ||
Ace
United States16096 Posts
April 11 2008 06:32 GMT
#4204
We'll continue discussing other things at the same time, but don't get your votes sidetracked. | ||
Camlito
Australia4040 Posts
April 11 2008 06:36 GMT
#4205
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bumatlarge
United States4567 Posts
April 11 2008 06:37 GMT
#4206
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Plexa
Aotearoa39261 Posts
April 11 2008 06:52 GMT
#4207
On April 11 2008 15:27 Ace wrote: yes ive just been caught up in the discussion of various points with people Hotzot must have just changed then. Plexa should be changing soon. changing now | ||
fusionsdf
Canada15390 Posts
April 11 2008 07:11 GMT
#4208
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
April 11 2008 07:15 GMT
#4209
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goldenkrnboi
United States3104 Posts
April 11 2008 07:31 GMT
#4210
On April 11 2008 15:37 bumatlarge wrote: Ugh, am I the only dead townie that wishes they were back in the game? i do too =/ but quiet you fool. we're dead. here. grab a seat and a drink. maybe we should invite the four blues that just died. =/ | ||
araav
Armenia1590 Posts
April 11 2008 07:32 GMT
#4211
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
April 11 2008 07:35 GMT
#4212
so no fek - voted Day 1 but nothing else fen - never voted or PM'd Dr.Dragoon - voted everyday but never PM'd me his role ieatkids5 - voted everyday except Day 1 Wizard - never voted but sent me a role PM Puosu - voted Days 3 and 4 ulszz - voted Day 3 for Showtime! + no role PM Alethios - voted everyday infinity21 - never voted + no role PM ZBiR - voted everyday except Day 4 SiZ.FaNtAsY - voted Day 2 + no role PM Vharox - never voted or role PM Unforgiven_ve - voted everyday except day 3 fgsvsd - done nothing at all KF91 - everything except vote Day 1 | ||
Plexa
Aotearoa39261 Posts
April 11 2008 07:49 GMT
#4213
How to catch Mafia 101 By Plexa When pinning mafia to clues there a number of factors one must consider; Clues take a single point from a player and extrapolate it out into a thematic idea. Example one; d.arkive had his profile picture linking to "DC" and the mysterious device. That single image was extrapolated into a thematic use of electricity and a recurring device. One feature -> Mafia theme Example two; Queasy had no information in his profile at all, thus the only clue could come from his name - Queasy. By definition Queasy means feeling sick. This definition was extrapolated into a thematic "sickly appearance" of sidewinder. One feature -> Mafia theme Example three; Links aren't always clearcut, Quesidilla from Mafia 1 had a in his profile picture a sign saying "Real men proxy". This quote was extrapolated into the thematic strength/close quarters engagements with his character in mafia one - a hard clue but still; One feature -> Mafia theme Players with many connections to a possible clue are not mafia. This overlaps with point one, but it really needs to be emphasized. Example 1; Ghar had many clues pertaining to him (e.g the Mayoral campaign, various clue references) and there was a really strong case for him being mafia. However, as the clues weren't pertaining to a single defining feature of him - he was innocent and we lynched him. Example 2; Shadowdrgn had a number of references/dual meanings of his name and profile which linked nicely to Mr Blonde. However there was simply too stronger connection between the two - and sadly (as we learned) he too turned out to be town. Its important to remember this as it allows many people to be instantly discarded from being Mafia Never mix traits up between mafia Unlike the first game, these clues are pertain to one mafia only. For instance the thematic idea of gazes meeting (before day 4) was linked to two different mafia therefore is NOT a thematic connection to a mafia; merely a coincidence. Mafia codenames have no relevance to the player. The names are derived from various Tarentino movies and hence purely placeholders. This is important when you look at characters like Mr Pink in relation to HeRoS)PiNK and the like who have pink in their name. The connection is purely fictitious therefore avoid it at all times. Great, now we have a basic understanding of how these clues work, so how do we apply them? There are two methods, i identified Queasy using one, and d.arkive using the other so both are valid methods. Take a player, analyse his profile for possible themes that could arise This is how i caught d.arkive. I saw his profile and checked out his varying bits of information. Keeping in mind a vague idea of Mafia traits (e.g. Taipan Snakes use of "direct current") his picture eventually clicked with me. DC, direct current. Upon investigating the connection further - everything could be extrapolated from the picture; mafia identified Take a mafia role, analyse the traits against various profiles This is how i caught Queasy. Thinking about Sidewinder i knew that there would be a clue linking to sickness. After checking out a number of profiles i came to the conclusion that the most relevant clue to sickness was indeed Queasy - and hence it transpired that he was sidewinder. Both of these methods are suited for particular situations. I'll do an example, analysing two confirmed innocent players - myself and TranceStorm. I will analyse myself using method one, and trancestorm using method two with the mafia Taipan Snake. Plexa Name: No meaning what so ever, no definitions, no abstract meanings no nothing. (origins actually come from the number "Googalplex" taking the plex at the end and adding an A, but anyone who gets that is a freak) Signature: Clues possibly deriving from being a fan of someone, admiration perhaps? Progamer references are unlikely to be clues thus can be disregarded. Also perhaps a clue linking to the blogs - perhaps writing utencils? Profile: Picture is of Plexa standing in from of the Tan Tien Buddha in Hong Kong thus perhaps some religious connection or perhaps a connection to asia Rationalisation Using the absolute clue hypothesis (see Clue analysis 201) clues must pertain to the entire section of the profile. Thus, as the signature has two very different focii a combination of fanboyism and blogging has no connections to any of the mafia profiles. Similarly when analyzing the picture clue we can reject any asian connections as there are far too many clues like that about hence we should focus on finding a religious theme - which is absent from mafia. Hence Plexa is innocent. TranceStorm + Show Spoiler [Taipan Snake] + He quickly ran through the yard towards his car parked out front but The Wolf and Taipan Snake had followed his near suicidal jump and were on him quick. Taipan Snake automatically knocked him to the ground and proceeded to kick him, being unarmed at the time. They both stood up in a haste and Neax went to call the police. The phone line was dead. goldenkrnboi pulled out his cell phone and began dialing when it began glitching on him. He kept trying but dropped the phone and gave up when he noticed the rest of the electronics in the house going haywire. They both grouped up in the room and decided to head out to investigate, possibly even try a neighbors phone when they noticed a Taipan Snake operating what dawned on them must be some sort of electronic jamming device Next door French_Toast was grabbing a midnight snack. He was headed to his computer room to check his email one last time before going to bed when he noticed all the batteries to some of his electronics have been removed and tossed on the floor. He bent down to pick them up and was just about done when Taipan Snake charged into him and knocked him to the ground. As if the last couple events weren't out of the blue enough for him French_Toast found himself being dragged to the nearest window. Eddie smashed the glass of the window and Taipan Snake grabbed French_Toast's head and they both used the remaining broken glass in the window pane to stab his neck with. It wasn't until they threw him through the window and he landed on his neighbors lawn darts did French_Toast die though. Eddie and Taipan Snake walked around the corner. "Oh I see you have friends" said Empyrean, now realized how screwed he was. "Yeah they're pretty cool guys, always ready to help" said Enigma and with that he and Eddie charged at Empyrean and proceeded to hold him to the ground. Taipan Snake walked up slowly and with a strange device fired out a direct current of electricity which proceeded to fry every inch of Empyrean. - Seems to be unarmed (not associated with weapons) -> Used broken glass recently -> Used a taser like device - Electronics connection -> Thematic disabling of electronics -> Thematic use of electricity (DC?) When we glance over at TranceStorm profile and try to match it to the mafia we get; Name: You have an interesting juxtaposition of tranquility against ferocity thus you would expect some kind of explosive mafia, which is calm then erupts in a quick flurry. The alternative is to have links to a Storm - which only somewhat applies Signature: Blank Profile: Blank As we are looking for an Electricity connection, the Storm (and hence ID) don't really apply to this aspect of Taipan. Also, the juxtaposition of the name is also lacking from Taipan - hence it is fairly safe to assume that TranceStorm is not Taipan Snake and hence Trancestorm is not mafia. Well there you have it, happy analysing! I encourage anyone and everyone to start analysing clues for yourself. It's really easy, and with this outline the town should be hitting mafia in no time. Expect to see an updated list of profiles very shortly!! | ||
Lysithea
Sweden204 Posts
April 11 2008 07:55 GMT
#4214
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Plexa
Aotearoa39261 Posts
April 11 2008 08:00 GMT
#4215
oh wow you stole my 5200th post haha | ||
Scorch
Austria3371 Posts
April 11 2008 08:15 GMT
#4216
On April 07 2008 17:04 Scorch wrote: Show nested quote + On April 07 2008 15:16 MidnightGladius wrote: Cross-referencing some lists: + Show Spoiler + Confirmed Innocent: incorrect list forged by mafia! MTF SpiritoftheTuna d.arkive Pangolin Plexa ~OpZ~ NatsuTerran Eti307 Empyrean JoxxOr Romance_us BloodyC0bbler Ghar - 7(now 5) (1 Mafia) useLess aZnvaLiaNce ShadowDrgn Alventenie imDerek TranceStorm Evilmonkey. Ace - 7(now 5) (1 Mafia) Chezinu Alventenie imDerek TranceStorm fusionsdf ~OpZ~ <-- not necessarily innocent any more Evilmonkey. Here, the following coincide in the two lists: imDerek Evilmonkey Alventenie Whereas these occur once: Chezinu useLess aZnvaLiaNce fusionsdf Of these, the following can easily be count-checked: fusionsdf (only one voting for Ace) Chezinu (only one voting for Ninja4ever) --- aZnvaLiaNce voted for TranceStorm with 13 others, so that's a dead end for now. Abstentions: imDerek Evilmonkey Alventenie useLess Do with this what you will. I'd like to emphasize this once more: We have the following certain information: EITHER one out of - imDerek - Evilmonkey - Alventenie is mafia, OR two out of - Chezinu - useLess - aZnvaLiaNce - fusionsdf are mafia. From among the second list, only one of useLess and aZnvaLiaNce can be mafia - not both -, and only one of Chezinu and fusionsdf can be mafia. At worst, we have a 1/7 chance to get a mafia from among these, a stunning 2/4 at best, so i emphatically suggest we take this path in our investigations. Keep your eyes open for evidence against any of these guys! My gut feeling says it's either useLess and fusionsdf or Evilmonkey, but it's just that: an unfounded gut feeling. It's nice of you to consider my conclusions and all, but this is not correct any more! I thought I had already made it clear that my list was based on the list of "confirmed" innocents, which turned out to be fake. We can thus ignore the list of innocents, which adds ~OpZ~ to the picture. It is therefore now: (Exactly one out of imDerek | Evilmonkey | Alventenie) OR (Exactly one out of | ||
Plexa
Aotearoa39261 Posts
April 11 2008 08:18 GMT
#4217
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Naib
Hungary4843 Posts
April 11 2008 08:30 GMT
#4218
Going off to the vote thread to declare my votes on Seifu and Evilmonkey. | ||
Bockit
Sydney2287 Posts
April 11 2008 08:30 GMT
#4219
On April 11 2008 16:49 Plexa wrote: As we are looking for an Electricity connection, the Storm (and hence ID) don't really apply to this aspect of Taipan. Also, the juxtaposition of the name is also lacking from Taipan - hence it is fairly safe to assume that TranceStorm is not Taipan Snake and hence Trancestorm is not mafia. While I agree with pretty much all your methodology I don't think you can make the claim "because the juxtaposition doesn't exist then it increases his chance of not being mafia" and for proof I bring quesadilla, whose *only* connection to the clues was his signature, his name wasn't relevant but it was still him. Fair enough it turned out TranceStorm was townie, and the rest of his stuff doesn't match up as well as it seems people were thinking, as you've pointed out. I'm just trying to avoid us falling into the trap of saying "This clue fits X but Y doesn't fit therefore it can't be him" when we've seen that this can be the case. But yeah I agree with pretty much everything else you've been saying. Let's see some red by nightfall. | ||
Scorch
Austria3371 Posts
April 11 2008 08:32 GMT
#4220
On April 11 2008 14:17 Ace wrote: Ok here's what we know about last night for sure - EXTREMELY IMPORTANT POST Mafia Kill List for Night 4 1.)Hittegods 2.)xDark.Carnivalx 3.)Lenwe (protected once) - Medic #1 4.)Lenwe 5.)Caller 6.)Meta All of these were legit - now here's something interesting. 7.) Plexa (protected) Medic2 8.)Plexa (protected) Medic3 9.) Plexa (protected again) Medic4 (not confirmed yet) 10.) Jack (I told him to put vet status on) took 1 hit 11.) Jack (protected) Medic 5 or 10 +11 is true. Either way something is wrong. This is all based on the Night Kills + info I got from medics and the Jack. As you can see, something does NOT add up. How could Plexa be protected 3 times and the Jack get hit as a vet and saved? Plexa how many hits were you informed about taking last night? I find this to be very relevant. The Jack already forged a list of "innocent" townies. Now he is involved in this conflicting case. I trust Plexa much much more than someone who claimed a role, has access to a list of rolled people who are now dead, forged an incorrect list of innocents, and now is involved in an incident of conflicting numbers. What, the medic protecting the Jack would have to be lying too? No problem! There is an impostor among the medics, which is why we lynched Doesn't all of this add up wonderfully? Unless I overlooked something grave - Ace, I demand you publish the Jack's name for us to lynch him. If the Jack is mafia, as I suspect, we catch the lying medic as well. | ||
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