EPTThat was from day 1, i find the sentence suspicious myself.
Edit: Could it be nemy? A red haired person staring at herself in a mirror - just a thought.
TL Mafia 2 [GG] - Page 209
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Camlito
Australia4040 Posts
That was from day 1, i find the sentence suspicious myself. Edit: Could it be nemy? A red haired person staring at herself in a mirror - just a thought. | ||
Plexa
Aotearoa39261 Posts
On April 11 2008 14:07 fusionsdf wrote: I've seen the game one wrap up and there were PERSISTENT THEMES which linked to mafia. Not strange one offs - those turned out to be red herringshow so? Its not like shooting someone in the face on a lucky shot is valiant You are starting with suspects, and trying to link clues to them. And thats a mistake. and luck is not a filler. If you think it is, I highly suggest you look at the game one wrap up | ||
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fusionsdf
Canada15390 Posts
On April 11 2008 14:07 Plexa wrote: Awesome sdf now link it to a mafia, ill help you, it links to The Wolf and Taipan. Not eddie, nor joe. Its plot filler. no its not I'll fucking sig bet you at the end of the game chuiu will reveal it and its going to read out "Solemn(name1) but seeing a promising future(name2)" Those are clues and traits we should look for, no matter which particular mafia it links too, instead of following half baked theories | ||
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Plexa
Aotearoa39261 Posts
On April 11 2008 14:09 fusionsdf wrote: Ok sig betted. However, if it turns out that those clue pertain to The Wolf (which imo they do) then i win the bet.no its not I'll fucking sig bet you at the end of the game chuiu will reveal it and its going to read out "Solemn(name1) but seeing a promising future(name2)" Those are clues and traits we should look for, no matter which particular mafia it links too, instead of following half baked theories | ||
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fusionsdf
Canada15390 Posts
On April 11 2008 14:08 Plexa wrote: I've seen the game one wrap up and there were PERSISTENT THEMES which linked to mafia. Not strange one offs - those turned out to be red herrings Yeah and it just happens to link eddie with luck twice and we have spare sentences like: [1,2]Chuiu and DapperDan were betrayed by their own comrades, and now their ||lives hanged on the balance.|| and you want to throw it away for a valiant thing thats contradicted by your own quote. I really like how you try to argue panicking and shooting someone is valiant. No. Fucking. Sense. Just so you can steer it to suspects youve already chosen, when you have less than a 5% of finding a mafia among those 6. | ||
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Camlito
Australia4040 Posts
~You're in my soul~ ~You're in my mind~ ~But I don't know where you are now King brown snake is known to meet face to face, and fall over at times, which is where the "But i don't know where you are now" comes from. | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
Mafia Kill List for Night 4 1.)Hittegods 2.)xDark.Carnivalx 3.)Lenwe (protected once) - Medic #1 4.)Lenwe 5.)Caller 6.)Meta All of these were legit - now here's something interesting. 7.) Plexa (protected) Medic2 8.)Plexa (protected) Medic3 9.) Plexa (protected again) Medic4 (not confirmed yet) 10.) Jack (I told him to put vet status on) took 1 hit 11.) Jack (protected) Medic 5 or 10 +11 is true. Either way something is wrong. This is all based on the Night Kills + info I got from medics and the Jack. As you can see, something does NOT add up. How could Plexa be protected 3 times and the Jack get hit as a vet and saved? Plexa how many hits were you informed about taking last night? | ||
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aZnvaLiaNce
United States942 Posts
As for now, since I'm having fingers pointed in my direction, and I know myself to be green, it's very suspicious in my own mind that Plexa is red. | ||
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Plexa
Aotearoa39261 Posts
On April 11 2008 14:13 fusionsdf wrote: Wow wtf fusion? Huge oversight on your behalf...Yeah and it just happens to link eddie with luck twice and we have spare sentences like: [1,2]Chuiu and DapperDan were betrayed by their own comrades, and now their ||lives hanged on the balance.|| and you want to throw it away for a valiant thing thats contradicted by your own quote. I really like how you try to argue panicking and shooting someone is valiant. No. Fucking. Sense. Just so you can steer it to suspects youve already chosen, when you have less than a 5% of finding a mafia among those 6. There is a 1/6% chance of one of those people being mafia. I took the names from the list where there are KNOWN MAFIA and analysed them because everyone is so hung up over these lists. If you want to link eddie to luck, be my guest. imo he very well could be Lostyourskills (as he was lucky on night two and now is growing more habitual) but cmon fusion, offer SOME analysis insted of half baked quasi-conjecture. "WOW THERE IS LUCK IN DAY 2 OMG" doesn't get us anywhere, take it that step further - how does it link to someone? etcetcetc The fact that eddie "half-panicked" and not "panicked" is enough to create doubt around your attack i think. Furthermore, it fits the plotline that they need to his yogurt some time so he can flip the switch. | ||
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fusionsdf
Canada15390 Posts
I see five medic actions, which looks correct and 11 mafia actions (when they should only have 8) Is that the problem? What does it indicate? | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
On April 11 2008 14:17 aZnvaLiaNce wrote: I've already pleaded my innocence pages and pages ago (around 187?). If you're not going to listen and not see how I'm trying to actually TRY to nail red, not my problem. As for now, since I'm having fingers pointed in my direction, and I know myself to be green, it's very suspicious in my own mind that Plexa is red. Plexa is almost guaranteed innocence with how many times he was targetted in the past few days. For him to be guilty 3 medics would have to be lying. | ||
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Plexa
Aotearoa39261 Posts
On April 11 2008 14:17 aZnvaLiaNce wrote: It's better for townies to come out and try reason some arguments against various people and have them debated around and get dialouge going than for everyone to stay silent. It moves the town forward, and we can get somewhere. Rather than have a boring non-eventful mafia game.I've already pleaded my innocence pages and pages ago (around 187?). If you're not going to listen and not see how I'm trying to actually TRY to nail red, not my problem. As for now, since I'm having fingers pointed in my direction, and I know myself to be green, it's very suspicious in my own mind that Plexa is red. This is what i've done throughout the game, i've changed my suspects millions of times. Infact, i'm leaning towards Lostyourskills due to his quote. Atfirst he was lucky, now it is habitual skill | ||
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fusionsdf
Canada15390 Posts
On April 11 2008 14:18 Plexa wrote: Wow wtf fusion? Huge oversight on your behalf... There is a 1/6% chance of one of those people being mafia. I took the names from the list where there are KNOWN MAFIA and analysed them because everyone is so hung up over these lists. If you want to link eddie to luck, be my guest. imo he very well could be Lostyourskills (as he was lucky on night two and now is growing more habitual) but cmon fusion, offer SOME analysis insted of half baked quasi-conjecture. "WOW THERE IS LUCK IN DAY 2 OMG" doesn't get us anywhere, take it that step further - how does it link to someone? etcetcetc The fact that eddie "half-panicked" and not "panicked" is enough to create doubt around your attack i think. Furthermore, it fits the plotline that they need to his yogurt some time so he can flip the switch. he half-panicked and not full-panicked so now he is valiant? | ||
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Camlito
Australia4040 Posts
On April 11 2008 14:17 aZnvaLiaNce wrote: I've already pleaded my innocence pages and pages ago (around 187?). If you're not going to listen and not see how I'm trying to actually TRY to nail red, not my problem. As for now, since I'm having fingers pointed in my direction, and I know myself to be green, it's very suspicious in my own mind that Plexa is red. Being suspicious of someone does not make them mafia if they are infact green. Like with nemY, if nemY is a townie and i accused him does that make me mafia? I hope not  | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
On April 11 2008 14:19 fusionsdf wrote: could you explain this a little bit more? I see five medic actions, which looks correct and 11 mafia actions (when they should only have 8) Is that the problem? What does it indicate? The first 6 all make sense with what we know - 1 kill for each and a 2nd listing for Lenwe since he took a hit. The last 5 are odd. The Mafia have/had a killing power of 9. The PMs I got add up to 11 actions. One of the 3 medics I told to protect Plexa is lying, and/or the Jack and th medic I told to protect him is lying. I don't know if he really assumed Vet status and got hit, or both since I don't know how Chuiu decides. If the Jack turned Vet and got hit, does 1 protection count or is the vet extra life counted first? If the extra life is counted first does that mean the medic is still informed and the target(Jack) also? | ||
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fusionsdf
Canada15390 Posts
On April 11 2008 14:16 Camlito wrote: nemY's Public Profile: ~You're in my soul~ ~You're in my mind~ ~But I don't know where you are now King brown snake is known to meet face to face, and fall over at times, which is where the "But i don't know where you are now" comes from. meeting, especially face to face eye to eye and that sort of thing shows up A LOT So if you can link this to someone its huge. Unfortunately, unless you have more, thats not a huge link | ||
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Plexa
Aotearoa39261 Posts
On April 11 2008 14:22 fusionsdf wrote: Looking at a macroscopic picture of eddie rather than a microscopic.he half-panicked and not full-panicked so now he is valiant? You've always analysed based on the microscope, great, more power to you. I generally analyse on the macroscope and get a general picture. So far im 2-1 in my "100% mafia" lists; i'm yet to see anything from you yet Let's start right now. One of my initial suspects for eddie was lostyourskills after day 1 (chuiu had lost his mayoral skills). Now, however, it seems that eddies luck has turned into skill ala his quote. your opinion please? | ||
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fusionsdf
Canada15390 Posts
On April 11 2008 14:23 Ace wrote: The first 6 all make sense with what we know - 1 kill for each and a 2nd listing for Lenwe since he took a hit. The last 5 are odd. The Mafia have/had a killing power of 9. The PMs I got add up to 11 actions. One of the 3 medics I told to protect Plexa is lying, and/or the Jack and th medic I told to protect him is lying. I don't know if he really assumed Vet status and got hit, or both since I don't know how Chuiu decides. If the Jack turned Vet and got hit, does 1 protection count or is the vet extra life counted first? If the extra life is counted first does that mean the medic is still informed and the target(Jack) also? shit. Just a scenario: so it looks like perhaps at the start of the game a medic was afk, and a mafia claimed his role? Do the medics or jack in question have access to the list of town roles? More importantly Were any of those three in the chatroom/knew about the chatroom when araav invaded? | ||
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Ace
United States16096 Posts
2.) The jack didn't have access to the list 3.) we already know there is a lying Medic in the bunch | ||
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fusionsdf
Canada15390 Posts
On April 11 2008 14:24 Plexa wrote: Looking at a macroscopic picture of eddie rather than a microscopic. You've always analysed based on the microscope, great, more power to you. I generally analyse on the macroscope and get a general picture. So far im 2-1 in my "100% mafia" lists; i'm yet to see anything from you yet Let's start right now. One of my initial suspects for eddie was lostyourskills after day 1 (chuiu had lost his mayoral skills). Now, however, it seems that eddies luck has turned into skill ala his quote. your opinion please? I've been selfish to prevent getting killed by mafia after a failed presidential campaign, and as such have been unable to sway the town to vote for a specific person. I admire your detective skills, obviously it took both of us to do so well last game. But I think by looking for suspects before looking for clues, your making a mistake. And while statistics arent everything, the first three guys that appear on both lists have a 50% chance of being mafia out of all of us, I have a 25% chance the other 2 have a 20% chance. but that masks the fact that there are only 1 maybe 2 mafia in this group. The mandalor list contains many more mafia. However, if you want to lynch someone from the list (I'm being selfish here) You should lynch either Useless or asian valiance, since knowing either of their alliances will give you concrete proof of the allegiance of the other 5. If useLess(1/5G) is mafia, Alventenie(1/5G)+(1/4A), imDerek(1/5G)+(1/4A), Evilmonkey.(1/5G)+(1/4A) and aZnvaLiaNce(1/5G) are innocent and fusionsdf(1/4A) is mafia. If aZnvaLiaNce(1/5G) is mafia, Alventenie(1/5G)+(1/4A), imDerek(1/5G)+(1/4A), Evilmonkey.(1/5G)+(1/4A) and useLess(1/5G) are innocent, fusionsdf(1/4A) is mafia. If either of those 2 are mafia, then so am I. If either one of them are innocent, then so am I. | ||
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