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On April 11 2008 11:43 Amber[LighT] wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2008 11:32 fusionsdf wrote:On April 11 2008 10:56 Amber[LighT] wrote:On April 11 2008 10:23 fusionsdf wrote:On April 11 2008 10:06 Amber[LighT] wrote:
No one finds it ironic that the suicidebomber killed our last detective?! almost like taunting us. At this point I think we have to assume that the mafia has at least a partial list of rolled towniesEspecially since they've been ignoring active townies for inactive ones, something that doesnt make sense as part of standard mafia strategy. How?! This makes no sense to me. We aren't posting these people's names all over the forum, unless I missed that post. araav + irc So why aren't we targeting him? Did we decide it was okay to kill off all the players with special roles? Even if he's a townie that's shitty to do.
Because we don't know what happened. araav says it wasn't him. Ace sort of maybe says that the blues weren't in the channel, or only some of the blues were in the channel, I don't know.
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On April 11 2008 11:22 HeRoS)Pink wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2008 11:20 qrs wrote:On April 11 2008 11:11 fusionsdf wrote:
Can you go over how you got this more clearly, because at best, it seems like either me and chezinu were both mafia, or one of the list of - imDerek
- Evilmonkey
- Alventenie
is mafia Either one of you and Chezinu was Mafia and one of useless/aznvaliance was mafia as well, or one of the other three (going by those lists: I didn't see when they were originally posted). The thing is: whether you are Mafia or not, lynching you (out of the six) gives us the most information. True and you (fusion) really likes number (%) Here's mine for you you have 1/2 chances of being a mafioso which mean 50% which is better than any % you have found yet
no, because you guys are misinterpreting wat scorch said.
Lets start from the beginning
For the Ace and Ghar DT lists, these 3 show up both times and could be potential mafia
imDerek
Evilmonkey
Alventenie
Whereas these occur once (and could potentially be mafia:
Chezinu
useLess
aZnvaLiaNce
fusionsdf
For the record, only chezinu is dead of the last 4. so that part is bullshit.
now lets assign odds.
First look at ghar.
Ghar - 7(now 5) (1 Mafia)
useLess
aZnvaLiaNce
ShadowDrgn
Alventenie
imDerek
TranceStorm
Evilmonkey.
one of those is mafia leaving us with everyone on that list having a 1/5 chance of being mafia.
so:
useLess(1/5G)
aZnvaLiaNce(1/5G)
Alventenie(1/5G)
imDerek(1/5G)
Evilmonkey.(1/5G)
For the Ace List:
Ace - 7(now 4) (1 Mafia)
Chezinu
Alventenie(1/4A)
imDerek(1/4A)
TranceStorm
fusionsdf(1/4A)
~OpZ~
Evilmonkey.(1/4A)
Each person on that list has 1/4 chance.
This leaves us with the following odds:
In descending order:
Alventenie(1/5G)+(1/4A)
imDerek(1/5G)+(1/4A)
Evilmonkey.(1/5G)+(1/4A)
fusionsdf(1/4A)
useLess(1/5G)
aZnvaLiaNce(1/5G)
(1/5) +(1/4) is 9/20, but Im not sure thats the best way to express the relationship.
Just from those two lists, you can see statistically Alventenie, imDerek and Evilmonkey are more likely suspects.
Now, if Alventenie, imDerek or Evilmonkey are mafia, we can confirm everyone else is innocent.
Likewise, if all three of those are innocent, NOTE: ALL THREE, then one of useLess(1/5G)
aZnvaLiaNce(1/5G) is mafia, and I am automatically mafia. But all three of those people would have to be innocent.
Luckily, I am in the unique position where I know I am not mafia, and can therefore add
useLess(1/5G)
aZnvaLiaNce(1/5G)
to my innocent list. (which sucks, cause they were pretty high up on my suspect list.
TL;DR version:
If fusionsdf is mafia, Alventenie(1/5G)+(1/4A), imDerek(1/5G)+(1/4A), Evilmonkey.(1/5G)+(1/4A) are innocent, and one of useLess(1/5G) or aZnvaLiaNce(1/5G) are mafia
If useLess(1/5G) is mafia, Alventenie(1/5G)+(1/4A), imDerek(1/5G)+(1/4A), Evilmonkey.(1/5G)+(1/4A) and aZnvaLiaNce(1/5G) are innocent and fusionsdf(1/4A) is mafia.
If aZnvaLiaNce(1/5G) is mafia, Alventenie(1/5G)+(1/4A), imDerek(1/5G)+(1/4A), Evilmonkey.(1/5G)+(1/4A) and useLess(1/5G) are innocent, fusionsdf(1/4A) is mafia.
If useLess(1/5G), aZnvaLiaNce(1/5G), or Alventenie(1/5G) is mafia, everyone else is innocent.
_________________________
Keep in mind that none of us are in the mandalor list, so the odds of any of us being mafia is about 1/10.
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On April 11 2008 11:56 qrs wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2008 11:43 Amber[LighT] wrote:On April 11 2008 11:32 fusionsdf wrote:On April 11 2008 10:56 Amber[LighT] wrote:On April 11 2008 10:23 fusionsdf wrote:On April 11 2008 10:06 Amber[LighT] wrote:
No one finds it ironic that the suicidebomber killed our last detective?! almost like taunting us. At this point I think we have to assume that the mafia has at least a partial list of rolled towniesEspecially since they've been ignoring active townies for inactive ones, something that doesnt make sense as part of standard mafia strategy. How?! This makes no sense to me. We aren't posting these people's names all over the forum, unless I missed that post. araav + irc So why aren't we targeting him? Did we decide it was okay to kill off all the players with special roles? Even if he's a townie that's shitty to do. Because we don't know what happened. araav says it wasn't him. Ace sort of maybe says that the blues weren't in the channel, or only some of the blues were in the channel, I don't know.
I think regardless of what Ace says, the odds of mafia getting this lucky with kills.....well its really fucking low. So obviously a leak exists somewhere. Im not going to call for araav to be lynched because we are divided enough as far as targets go right now anyways, but it seems to me that either araav is mafia, or Ace is mafia. (Or there is some other leak we arent aware of, like a mafia making it through Ace's filter system)
If we run out of clues or dont have any leads, it would probably be best to follow the mandalor list and assume a role-leak in order to have good odds.
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It's easy to manipulate statistics. For example, you write, "Keep in mind that none of us are in the mandalor list, so the odds of any of us being mafia is about 1/10." That has nothing to do with it. 1/10 would be the odds if all we knew about was the mandalor list. But we have other information.
Either one mafioso voted in both lists or two mafioso voted: one in each. That means either the trio of ImDerek/evilmonkey/alventenie contains one mafioso or all are innocent. If they are innocent, you are Mafia and one of useless/aznvaliance is mafia.
ImDerek: 1/6 chance of being mafia (1/2*1/3)
evilmonkey: 1/6
alventenie: 1/6
fusion: 1/2 (1/2 *1)
useless: 1/4 (1/2* 1/2)
aznvaliance: 1/4.
edit: I agree it seems likely that there was some kind of leak. Ace already said that at least some of that was Mandalor. Maybe other fake blues picked up information as well. If it was araav, shouldn't Ace be pushing for his lynching? Then again, Ace hasn't been acting that rationally recently, so I don't know.
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Hmm, to me i think alventenie and imDerek seem to be innocent. Evilmonkey has had some recent clues come up.
So to me its either
EvilMonkey
Or
Fusionsdf
Useless/aznvaliance
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
People, fuck the lists.
They are a great aid but we shouldn't be pushing them any further.
Rather than take a guess and go "OH EASY 1/3 CHANCE = INSTA WIN" sit back, check the players, and see what the clues spell out.
Rational arguments based on clues are hard to deny, argue or even counter.
On that note L is mafioso. Yes Cottonmouth threw 15 knives, but the important thing how the clues are worded. Why say that he threw 3 knives into each of his legs and 3 into his back? Why is it worded so? Summing the numbers stated you get 12 and given the lack of evidence pertaining to L this is a damming clue against him. This clue is very much alike to Queasy and Sidewinder and should not be lightly dismissed simply.
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On April 11 2008 12:20 Plexa wrote:
People, fuck the lists.
They are a great aid but we shouldn't be pushing them any further.
Rather than take a guess and go "OH EASY 1/3 CHANCE = INSTA WIN" sit back, check the players, and see what the clues spell out.
Rational arguments based on clues are hard to deny, argue or even counter.
On that note L is mafioso. Yes Cottonmouth threw 15 knives, but the important thing how the clues are worded. Why say that he threw 3 knives into each of his legs and 3 into his back? Why is it worded so? Summing the numbers stated you get 12 and given the lack of evidence pertaining to L this is a damming clue against him. This clue is very much alike to Queasy and Sidewinder and should not be lightly dismissed simply.
Plexa, look at both of my posts. Neither Day 2 nor Day 4 adds up to 12.
Here is the second. It isn't just the first not adding to 12. The second doesn't either.
On April 11 2008 01:01 LTT wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2008 00:56 HeRoS)Pink wrote:On April 11 2008 00:44 LTT wrote:I think there might be a problem with the 12 idea. We only have 2 occurances and the first one was miscounted. There are a total of 15 knives on Day 2. Snake Charmer came in with a sword in hand and they saw Cottonmouth with a belt of knives and half a moment later Mr. White came in and closed the door. NeaX didn't care anymore, he started going to the front door when two knives met his hand as he reached for the handle. He braced himself against the wall as he pulled them out with his good hand. He chucked them back at Cottonmouth and went to open the door again but one by one four more knived embraced his good arm. NeaX fell to the ground and the pain and loss of blood were slowly taking their toll on him. goldenkrnboi watched the whole thing in horror and finally gained the courage to attack the three men in a vain attempt to save his friend. Snake Charmer wasn't just standing idle though as he slashed away at goldenkrnboi giving him one gruesome gash after another. He was just about dead when Mr. White stomped goldenkrnboi's head in finishing him off. NeaX managed to get the door open and was crawling out while they were distracted by goldenkrnboi but Cottonmouth quickly picked up his target once more and finished him off throwing three knives into each of his legs and three in his back. 2 + 4 + 6 + 3 = 15 There were 3 knives in EACH of his legs, for a total of 6 knives in his legs. But thats not the point , what you have to count is all the numbers written 2+4+3+3 = 12 If that is the case, then Day 4 doesn't add up to 12. Show nested quote +Down the hall New104 was starting to get worried, rather he was starting to get a little thirsty himself. Empyrean was taking his time, he thought, so that must mean he's brewing a fresh pot. He got up to go get some coffee himself when he noticed five nails on the ground, he walked slowly over to them to investigate. As he was bending over to take a closer look Cottonmouth approached from behind and stabbed a nail into his back. He fell to the ground and Cottonmouth used the opportunity to stab six more nails into him. New104 was cringing in pain but he knew he had to defend himself, he started getting up but met gaze with a strange man on his way up. King Brown Snake slapped him back to the ground and started beating him as he lay there. New104 wasn't anywhere near dead at this point, but his adrenaline was flowing and he used the sudden surge in strength to knock King Brown Snake to the ground and get up himself. He dodge three more nails flying at him and got out to the hallway. Noticing a mafia walking down from the break room he started heading down the opposite direction to the armory. Cottonmouth was in the hallway now and was about to throw another nail at New104 when The Wolf interrupted him. "You just need to hit the right spot" he said as he threw the nail down the hallway, it landed square in the back of New104's head and he convulsed as he dropped to the ground, dying less then a minute later. Adding all the nails, you get 5 + 1 + 6 + 3 + 1 = 16 Adding just the numbers, you get 5 + 6 + 3 = 14 I'm starting to think 12 is really a stretch.
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
Fair enough, but for now my suspicions are sufficiently high to be thinking L.
In your case you have the descending numbers 15, 14, next comes 13 - find be a profile which has descending numbers from 15 and ill change my mind.
For now then (i suppose) look at Siefu (who's been neglected)
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On April 11 2008 12:20 Plexa wrote:
People, fuck the lists.
They are a great aid but we shouldn't be pushing them any further.
Rather than take a guess and go "OH EASY 1/3 CHANCE = INSTA WIN" sit back, check the players, and see what the clues spell out.
Rational arguments based on clues are hard to deny, argue or even counter.
On that note L is mafioso. Yes Cottonmouth threw 15 knives, but the important thing how the clues are worded. Why say that he threw 3 knives into each of his legs and 3 into his back? Why is it worded so? Summing the numbers stated you get 12 and given the lack of evidence pertaining to L this is a damming clue against him. This clue is very much alike to Queasy and Sidewinder and should not be lightly dismissed simply.
Sorry plexa, but I have no idea how you can push something that shaky
you basically have
12 = mafia
L = 12
which is pretty flawed
first of all, its not 12, since you are willfully ignoring daggers to further a theory. Second, the 12 could equally apply to wizard, or hey shallow[bay] has 12 characters in his name! Lets lynch him instead! Third, we have way better fucking clues than this.
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On April 11 2008 12:31 Plexa wrote:
Fair enough, but for now my suspicions are sufficiently high to be thinking L.
In your case you have the descending numbers 15, 14, next comes 13 - find be a profile which has descending numbers from 15 and ill change my mind.
For now then (i suppose) look at Siefu (who's been neglected)
Now I'm confused. None of the numbers add up to 12 unless you start making a complicated set of rules which eliminates the evidence against L but he is still your leading suspect until we find evidence for a clue that might not be a clue?
As I said in my PM, we have to be wary of holding grudge suspisions and forcing evidence to fit those descriptions. Last game, I exchanged PMs with SonuvBob trying to figure out who was mafia. During the game, Live2Win used his mod powers to edit another player's post. That pissed me off so I was convinced that we has mafia. Every day I'd get more and more upset at the town for missing painfully obvious clues. I was convinced he was lying about being a medic. It turns out, he wasn't. If you start with a suspect who you are sure is mafia, you are sure to find "evidence" in all those words from Chuiu and the thousands of posts in this thread.
If we are going to play based on clues and evidence, which seems to be our best shot at this point, we need to keep the suspicion proportionate to the evidence. When the evidence disappears, our suspicions should diminish proportionately. What you are currently doing doesn't seem to be different from Ace deciding to lynch qrs because he is upset with him. It can't come from anger and then lead to evidence.
You have been the best at deciphering clues thus far so we need you in top form to keep seeing red text on day and night posts. Even if L, or qrs, turns out to be mafia, we've made the wrong move if there are any better suspects with evidence behind them. Over the long run, we are going to die if we play like this.
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Wasn't L also suspected earlier in this for his smily face? Just need a reminder.
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yeah, but that grin applies equally to unforgiven who has  as a quote,
and hotzhot: Quote : I only smile in the darK
so its still not very strong
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On April 11 2008 12:55 fusionsdf wrote:yeah, but that grin applies equally to unforgiven who has as a quote, and hotzhot: Quote : I only smile in the darK so its still not very strong
Ok thanks, but do you know where it came from? (Like what clue on what day so i can read it).
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
+ Show Spoiler [quotes] +On April 11 2008 12:51 LTT wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2008 12:31 Plexa wrote:
Fair enough, but for now my suspicions are sufficiently high to be thinking L.
In your case you have the descending numbers 15, 14, next comes 13 - find be a profile which has descending numbers from 15 and ill change my mind.
For now then (i suppose) look at Siefu (who's been neglected) Now I'm confused. None of the numbers add up to 12 unless you start making a complicated set of rules which eliminates the evidence against L but he is still your leading suspect until we find evidence for a clue that might not be a clue? As I said in my PM, we have to be wary of holding grudge suspisions and forcing evidence to fit those descriptions. Last game, I exchanged PMs with SonuvBob trying to figure out who was mafia. During the game, Live2Win used his mod powers to edit another player's post. That pissed me off so I was convinced that we has mafia. Every day I'd get more and more upset at the town for missing painfully obvious clues. I was convinced he was lying about being a medic. It turns out, he wasn't. If you start with a suspect who you are sure is mafia, you are sure to find "evidence" in all those words from Chuiu and the thousands of posts in this thread. If we are going to play based on clues and evidence, which seems to be our best shot at this point, we need to keep the suspicion proportionate to the evidence. When the evidence disappears, our suspicions should diminish proportionately. What you are currently doing doesn't seem to be different from Ace deciding to lynch qrs because he is upset with him. It can't come from anger and then lead to evidence. You have been the best at deciphering clues thus far so we need you in top form to keep seeing red text on day and night posts. Even if L, or qrs, turns out to be mafia, we've made the wrong move if there are any better suspects with evidence behind them. Over the long run, we are going to die if we play like this.
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We should really look for clues on:
Alventenie
Imderek
Evilmonkey
and
Fusionsdf
Useless
aznvaliance
Right now i suspect evilmonkey if one of the top ones are mafia, and the bottom i'm unsure about.
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To be fair to Plexa, he came up with the number 12 before he could think of anyone to link it to. Even so, it seems like a very weak clue to me. The daggers I could maybe buy, but the nails just don't add up. 16 mentioned, 10+1 thrown/stabbed, 7+1 hit. Where do you see 12?
We shouldn't split our votes so much that a non-candidate gets lynched (e.g. me--6 votes; evidence: "I want him to shut up" ). I still think that more clues point to suresh0t than to anyone else. My second vote is for fusion atm, but I'll change it if necessary.
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Aotearoa39261 Posts
Strong mafia themes
Mr Pink
- Silent and Sadistic
Mr Red
- Continually fall over
King Brown Snake
- Gets pushed out of the way
Mr Orange
- Recurring theme of being unable to call for help
Black Mamba
- Recurring theme of bruised faces
Mr Blonde
- Always catches victims off guard/by surprise
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keep in mind, that even with the odds I gave above, that doesnt include the odds from the mandalor lists.
None of us are in the mandalo lists, so you are effectively chasing after 7 mafia hiding among 63 townie positions, instead of the 10 mafia hiding in only 37 townies among the mandalor list.
If you dont have any strong clues, youre better off choosing someone from the mandalor list
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^fusion, you're twisting the stats. The Ghar/Ace lists give us more detailed information than the Mandalor list. Yes, 7/63 people are mafia, but 1 or 2 of those 7 are one of you 6.
You might as well say, "Of the billions of people in the world, what are the odds that I'm a mafioso?"
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On April 11 2008 12:58 Camlito wrote:Show nested quote +On April 11 2008 12:55 fusionsdf wrote:yeah, but that grin applies equally to unforgiven who has as a quote, and hotzhot: Quote : I only smile in the darK so its still not very strong Ok thanks, but do you know where it came from? (Like what clue on what day so i can read it).
-SMILEY
SMILEY
[2,11]He tried to find the shotgun he had stashed in his closet but only found a smiley in its place.
GRIN
[4,7]Enigma ||grinned|| back at him and motioned someone to come to him. Eddie and Taipan Snake walked around the corner.
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EPT
