EPTMy question is, do we still attempt to lynch him, or let mafia take care of him in the chance that he's actually vigi so we can lynch someone else? Serious question, I don't know the best course of action.
##Unvote: Eden1892
Newbie Mini Mafia LV - Page 30
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
My question is, do we still attempt to lynch him, or let mafia take care of him in the chance that he's actually vigi so we can lynch someone else? Serious question, I don't know the best course of action. ##Unvote: Eden1892 | ||
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ritoky
United States6851 Posts
I think you're shady for 3 major reasons: 1) You have been non-stop deflecting and trying to get all the attention off of yell0w. When the pressure turned back up you tried to throw it on tamburini. 2) You're respond to those who are reading you town with only positivity and to those who are reading you scum with aggression. 3) I read your filter and almost every post has the word bunny in it or is a response to a post made by bunny. In my reads earlier I told bunny to be wary of people lining their ducks in a row up behind her, and you're very guilty of doing this. You even agreed that tamburini looked a bit weird when someone pointed out that he kept appealing to bunny to get on board the yell0w train. I think you have been doing similar things but in a more subtle way. I also think there are redeeming qualities to you: 1) I think you really are looking at people's posts and trying to figure out alignments. 2) You do legwork rather than the stuff that Ashtwini is doing where it is regurgitation and hopping on a BW 3) You're willing to be and admit to being wrong. Those redeeming qualities are some of the reasons I haven't pushed heavily for a vote on you thus far, even though I have said you are scummy. On May 01 2014 07:37 Eden1892 wrote: Yeah this claim is fucking stupid. - If there's a mafia roleblocker, mtamburini just wasted our vigilante for literally no gain. - Even if he's not roleblocked, we have no way of knowing he's not the serial killer. In fact, his specific suggestion that the parity cop check him tonight and someone else n2 would fit perfectly with a serial killer planning to pick investigation immunity tonight. - I think an actual vigilante would have thought through these problems before claiming. - Even if we ignore the above, look at the context. This claim is basically "I'm just gonna claim because yolo didn't read." What purpose does this serve? How does this advance the town agenda? I don't think mtamburini is mafia, but I'm thinking there's a good chance he's the serial killer. I'm going to reread the whole thread and see how I feel about everyone else; I don't think this changes my scumread on Yell0w because mafia/sk is, from what I remember, a decent explanation for their interaction. While I'm reading, I want everyone online to tell me what they think about mtamburini's claim. @Eden: I mean, I thought everyone else saw what I saw when tamburini claimed he was leader of the town. I thought it was him softing a role that was going to come out early (such as cop) or a role that is self-proving (such as vigi). Hence why I was buying his cool-aid a bit more. I guess maybe that was only me that read into that. So instead let's do a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) of this situation: The world where tamburini is vigi: In the world where tamburini is vigi, he claims he will shoot tonight. If he does shoot tonight there are a couple possible results: 1) He shoots mafia, 2) He shoots a town, 3) He gets roleblocked, 4) He shoots into protection. In the event that he doesn't shoot, then he doesn't shoot and will be under heavy pressure and asked to explain himself. In the event of outcome #1 or #2 occurring we have a CONFIRMED townie for as long as he remains alive which results in a humongous boon for town. Essentially meaning that not lynching him gives us probably somewhere around a 50% chance (based on how you guess the game is set up) of having a confirmed town tomorrow, and probably a 15-20% chance of having a dead mafia + confirmed town tomorrow. (warning: these numbers are not actual calculations, they are made up in my head) The world where tamburini is sk: In the world where tamburini is sk, he MUST kill tonight (at least from when I have previously played sk's must kill every night), and thus the same 4 outcomes will happen: 1) He shoots mafia, 2) He shoot town, 3) He gets roleblocked, 4) He shoots into protection. The major difference between these two worlds won't actually happen during day 2. I think that if outcome 3 or 4 happens, he will have some explaining to do; if outcome 1 or 2 happens then he will be essentially confirmed town for day 2, BUT when 2 kp happens again on night 2; it will be 100% confirmed he is sk and he will henceforth be lynched. The world where he is neither: I see 3 real outcomes to that: 1) he logs on in a few hours and claims this was a reaction test and makes reads predicated upon that, 2) the vigi shoots him in the night for false claiming, 3) he comes back day 2 admits he was fake and trying to save himself from a lynch, and we have to judge him from there. I will let you make your own determinations in regard to what you feel is best, but personally I think there is 0 reason to lynch him right now. His claim is such that he will demonstrate who he is over the course of the next 2 night phases if he lives that long. Plus he gives the town potential for a night kill on a mafia AND a confirmed townie by tomorrow. I just don't see how you don't want that potential. Unless you are claiming vigi over the top of him, in which case he is 100% mafia or sk and we have to decide who we believe. | ||
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ritoky
United States6851 Posts
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
No, I don't think there's any "policy" decision to make, so to speak; the logic from role interactions doesn't give any absolute conclusion like it does in some cases (ex: don't lynch a d1 normal cop claim and make the mafia play around it). It comes down to whether or not you believe his claim. As I've argued before, his claim makes no sense from a town POV. He was completely unprompted. It was way too early out to be claiming to avoid a lynch. If he wanted to confirm himself as town he'd have waited until d2 to claim and then he'd have shot tonight, then claimed the kill on d2. No one asked him for his claim, and it distracted us for the last few pages. Furthermore he's done nothing substantial besides this to scumhunt or make any progress toward clarifying the game state. | ||
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ritoky
United States6851 Posts
On May 01 2014 13:06 Eden1892 wrote: I'm running through the possible scenarios and not getting any non-obvious conclusions. If he's the serial killer we want to lynch him, if he's the vigilante we don't want to lynch him, there's no surefire way today to know the difference, and the serial killer and vigilante are identical as far as the mafia's incentives go -- a source of additional nightkills that could get targeted at them but are statistically more likely to hit town -- so the mafia aren't going to do anything that would let us discern the difference. Hell, he could even be the vigilante and plausibly survive the night depending on whether or not there's a jailkeeper or town roleblocker in the game -- if the mafia player sent to kill the vigilante was roleblocked or jailed, then there'd only be one kill and mtamburini would be alive, in which case we'd probably assume he's a nightkill-immune serial killer and mislynch him anyway. There's just too many possible role interactions to verify anything with certainty. No, I don't think there's any "policy" decision to make, so to speak; the logic from role interactions doesn't give any absolute conclusion like it does in some cases (ex: don't lynch a d1 normal cop claim and make the mafia play around it). It comes down to whether or not you believe his claim. As I've argued before, his claim makes no sense from a town POV. He was completely unprompted. It was way too early out to be claiming to avoid a lynch. If he wanted to confirm himself as town he'd have waited until d2 to claim and then he'd have shot tonight, then claimed the kill on d2. No one asked him for his claim, and it distracted us for the last few pages. Furthermore he's done nothing substantial besides this to scumhunt or make any progress toward clarifying the game state. I guess it doesn't come as a surprise to me because I felt he was softing it since the very start if the game, hence why I find it more believable. I agree with you that his contributions to the town thus far are fairly low outside of what I feel still was a decent call out on yell0w. But I disagree with you that he was "unprompted"; he had the most votes in the game at that point and suitable momentum headed toward him. I think it was a case of claiming earlier to avoid it looking like a desperate and made up claim. As for what you said in regard to scenarios I am still mulling that over in my head and thinking about possible outcomes, so I will take a rain-check on responding to that part. | ||
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Yell0w
120 Posts
So in conclusion, Huge downsides: 2 kp instead of 1 Small upsides: we might get a confirmed town in 2 days. And I don't get how we can have a confirmed town tomorrow, in any scenario I can think of, if he's alive tomorrow morning, what ever happened, I wouldn't trust what he says. And the fact I originally thought we would have a confirmed town tomorrow if he survives the night is why I didn't think we should lynch him, but I forgot about the possibility of him being sk. | ||
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Yell0w
120 Posts
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ritoky
United States6851 Posts
On May 01 2014 14:22 Yell0w wrote: Also, ritoky, I am pretty sure mysterymeat1 was third to vote against tamburini, not ahs. On April 29 2014 11:21 Yell0w wrote: I never actually played mafia, I play werewolf in real life, which is pretty much the same I guess, and I don't think him talking is indicative of him being mafia or not, I just think he likes talking. May I point out you said this. On April 29 2014 11:03 Yell0w wrote: So this sqrt guy sure seems to enjoy talking, so he's probably mafia. Yet you don't think him talking a lot is indicative of being mafia? Contradicting yourself already?[/QUOTE] Bunnies is on the hunt! Ill let you borrow my noose.[/QUOTE] On April 29 2014 12:43 mtamburini wrote: Bunnies I think we need to apply pressure back on YELLOW. How should I have responded? If your town you shouldnt care on how to appear more towny. This a classic rookie mafia mistake. ##VOTE: Yell0w On April 29 2014 11:53 mtamburini wrote: I need to prove to myself and the others that have played with me that I am not a donkey and can find scum. My piss poor performance from last game mis hammering on Moose had bothered me for a while and when I heard there was another noobie game I was excited to come back and gain redemption. My inspiration. On April 29 2014 12:52 mtamburini wrote: Fuck that shit no one is off the table today, I want this Yell0w person to die after everything thats happened. 1 Sarcasm 2 Asking how I can be more towny is not towny. These are 2 really good reasons to push harder on Yell0w. I liked bunnies initial push but wasnt ready to jump on board just yet, wanted Yell0w to talk some more and see what they had to say, and I did not like anything said so far. On April 29 2014 22:21 mtamburini wrote: She didn't ask how to be more towny, she asked why is she getting slack for pushing on you and voting on you when Eden just casts a vote on someone who has not said a word and has no accusation towards then. If you can't see the difference in questioning and tone from your question to hers then I don't know what to tell you. On April 30 2014 01:16 mtamburini wrote: I like this fellow. Has not said much of anything but has picked up on something that no one else had really brought up (maybe not even thought about too) Can you give more details on yellow and/or anyone else? It is way tooo early in a mafia game to start trying to pocket someone this hard. Literally at least half of his posts are bunny lets do this, bunny lets do that. She ain't your gf bro. Also I like how in the last post i quoted, dfs points that yellow has been cleared and tamburini asks for details on yellow first and mentions other people as an after thought. [/QUOTE] On April 30 2014 15:57 Epishade wrote: I literally just brought that up in my big post 40 minutes ago or so. On April 30 2014 15:58 MysteryMeat1 wrote: ##VOTE: mtamburini #freeYell0w On April 30 2014 16:03 Epishade wrote: ##VOTE: mtamburini On April 30 2014 18:32 ahswtini wrote: This is a great post. I have nothing insightful of my own to add to the analysis there. However, out of the three, I think mtamburini is the best lynch here. ritoky and sweetfrost's posts are better in that they talk about many different people, whereas mtamburini seems to be gunning straight for yell0w. Therefore it'll be handier to keep ritoky and sweetfrost around for longer as we can get more information out of them provided they continue their way of posting. ##Vote: mtamburini That's in order of posting. | ||
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ritoky
United States6851 Posts
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dfs
Russian Federation4050 Posts
The only way we'll know if he is town is if he (or sk) dies, because there is a sk possibility. Who can kill him: Actual sk - will not be interested in killing someone who can be suspected as sk. Mafia - no reason for mafia to kill him if they have a roleblocker. Vig - mtamburini can only die tonight if is getting shot by (another) vig, but no one called it yet, which is weird. I don't see any outcome where he would get cleared as town the next day if he survives, or be of any use untill day 3. If he is an sk - he will be able to do a lot of damage to town. If he is vig - he will not be useful until day 3. He can even be mafia who gambled that vig would not call him out. (which is kinda stupid admitedly) mtamburini with this rolecall put himself in a position where he can't be useful to town untill much later, because of all the suspicion of being sk he raised. | ||
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ritoky
United States6851 Posts
I am going to ##vote: ashtwini. For me, he is currently a combination of non-helpful play and slightly scummy. I don't like how he was 3rd on the tamburini train citing only someone else's reasoning as justification. I also find it absolutely ridiculous that anyone wants to lynched a claimed vigi with no current counterclaim to him. The potential gain of having him alive is so much more valuable than almost anything anyone has typed thus far. It is an utterly bad idea for town imo. | ||
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ahswtini
Northern Ireland22203 Posts
At the same time, given the setup, it's incredibly dangerous to claim fakeclaim vig, since it's likely that there is a vig, but highly unlikely for there to be two. If he really is the vig, he's screwed himself out of his night kill. On May 01 2014 06:53 mtamburini wrote: Gonna be completely honest, all this reading gives me a headache I dont read this much for school. And to be hoenst I prob wont finish and I will read later again,.Im tired and hungry and Im just gonna claim my role. Im Bird Jesus and Ive got a target to shoot tonight right now but I will finish reading to find more connections to this person and/or more behavior I may have missed from everyone else. I like tunneling its fun and you cant tell a lot about a person when you do so along with everyone else in the game. Im like 85% certain on this person and if I do mis shoot, well I will retract town leader position and stick my tail between my legs and sit in the corner and think about what I have done. This is the post in which he makes his claim. He says he has a headache, is tired and hungry, the entire post sounds like a rushed claim without much thought put into it. It's possible he didn't realise that the power of the vig role meant there was likely only one in the game. The majority of that post is also about how he's gonna shoot someone tonight, forgetting the roleblocker threat. At least the confidence there fits with his day one leadership post. Also, what do we do in the event that there's an 11th hour vig counterclaim, especially if they see that mtamburni is not going to get lynched? In such a case, we would have no choice but to lynch mtamburini and see how he flips. If he IS the SK, unfortunately our real vig is screwed a well. Hopefully we have a jailkeeper who can protect him, though it seems that the roleblocker can block the same person consecutively. | ||
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LoneMeow
Finland1396 Posts
Sweetfrost (1): mtamburini (3): Epishade (1): dfs (0): Yell0w (1): Eden1892 (1): sqrtofneg1 (1): Sweetfrost ahswtini (1): Not voting (4): Epishade, Yell0w, Amiko, dfs Currently, mtamburini is set to be lynched. Deadline is Thursday, May 01 10:00pm GMT (GMT+00:00) (in ). Voting is mandatory! + Show Spoiler [Vote counter log] + ERROR: Eden1892 voted invalid player Eden (post) WARNING: Eden1892 unvoted without vote (post) VOTE: 27ninjabunnies voted Yell0w (post) VOTE: 27ninjabunnies unvoted Yell0w (post) VOTE: Eden1892 voted Sweetfrost (post) VOTE: Eden1892 unvoted Sweetfrost (post) VOTE: Eden1892 voted Epishade (post) VOTE: Eden1892 unvoted Epishade (post) VOTE: Eden1892 voted Epishade (post) VOTE: mtamburini voted Yell0w (post) VOTE: Eden1892 unvoted Epishade (post) VOTE: Eden1892 voted dfs (post) VOTE: Eden1892 unvoted dfs (post) VOTE: Eden1892 voted Yell0w (post) VOTE: sqrtofneg1 voted Eden (Eden1892) (post) VOTE: Sweetfrost voted sqrtofneg1 (post) VOTE: Epishade voted mtamburini (post) VOTE: ahswtini voted mtamburini (post) VOTE: MysteryMeat1 voted mtamburini (post) VOTE: dravernor voted Epishade (post) VOTE: Epishade unvoted mtamburini (post) VOTE: sqrtofneg1 unvoted Eden1892 (post) VOTE: sqrtofneg1 voted ahswtini (post) VOTE: Eden1892 unvoted Yell0w (post) VOTE: Eden1892 voted mtamburini (post) VOTE: sqrtofneg1 unvoted ahswtini (post) VOTE: sqrtofneg1 voted mtamburini (post) VOTE: 27ninjabunnies voted Sweetfrost (post) WARNING: Epishade unvoted without vote (post) VOTE: Epishade voted Sweetfrost (post) WARNING: Epishade changed vote without unvote (post) VOTE: Epishade unvoted Sweetfrost (post) VOTE: Epishade voted Sweetfrost (post) VOTE: sqrtofneg1 unvoted mtamburini (post) VOTE: sqrtofneg1 voted Eden1892 (post) VOTE: Epishade unvoted Sweetfrost (post) VOTE: Epishade voted Eden1892 (post) VOTE: Epishade unvoted Eden1892 (post) VOTE: ritoky voted ashwtini (ahswtini) (post) | ||
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ahswtini
Northern Ireland22203 Posts
This leaves me in a difficult spot because I really have no solid scum reads on anyone. | ||
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ahswtini
Northern Ireland22203 Posts
I just don't like this feeling of accusing people in the beginning based off of some joke claim that he is mafia. Exept for tamburini, i just don't like the fact that imo, with soo little information that he was trying to pocket bunny that hard. Yet never mentioning what he would like to see or happen. This negative-only attitude reads to me as typical scum behaviour. On top of that, he's banned so he's not going to be useful for the next couple of days. Yes, it looks rather suspicious that my only case is against someone that can't defend themselves, but this is honestly the only thing that's standing out to me so far. I don't really follow the other arguments that are being thrown around in this thread. Since he's banned for the vote today, will his vote stay on mtamburini? | ||
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27ninjabunnies
United States2486 Posts
On May 01 2014 16:22 dfs wrote: mtamburini's rolecall looks a lot like a desperation move to not get lynched today made too early. The only way we'll know if he is town is if he (or sk) dies, because there is a sk possibility. Who can kill him: Actual sk - will not be interested in killing someone who can be suspected as sk. Mafia - no reason for mafia to kill him if they have a roleblocker. Vig - mtamburini can only die tonight if is getting shot by (another) vig, but no one called it yet, which is weird. I don't see any outcome where he would get cleared as town the next day if he survives, or be of any use untill day 3. If he is an sk - he will be able to do a lot of damage to town. If he is vig - he will not be useful until day 3. He can even be mafia who gambled that vig would not call him out. (which is kinda stupid admitedly) mtamburini with this rolecall put himself in a position where he can't be useful to town untill much later, because of all the suspicion of being sk he raised. There is also a possibility that vig is nt claiming that way they can shoot tamburini at night without the chance of getting roleblocked, if tamburini's claim is false. That would be the strategy I would use if I wa actual vig, and tamburini was not. | ||
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ahswtini
Northern Ireland22203 Posts
On May 01 2014 19:54 27ninjabunnies wrote: There is also a possibility that vig is nt claiming that way they can shoot tamburini at night without the chance of getting roleblocked, if tamburini's claim is false. That would be the strategy I would use if I wa actual vig, and tamburini was not. This is very true. Trying to think why a Town mtamburini would fakeclaim vig. Obviously first and foremost to save himself. But if he were a blue, he'd be dooming himself anyway. He might do it as a vanilla townie to save himself, but also to attract roleblocks/kills from scum. That's the only feasible scenario imo, and it wouldn't be a big loss to lose him to a vig who would be able to confirm themselves by killing him. | ||
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Yell0w
120 Posts
I was on the fence between sweetfrost and tamburini, I said why I thought they were scummy, but I just can't get behind tamburini's actions and overall uselessness to town, the only thing he did was tunneling hard on me and then claiming vigi out of nowhere. I don't think what he did made any sense if he's the actual vigi. He didn't even come close to being the town leader he promised us to be and he didn't even try to defend himself from suspicions, he just claimed vigi. I don't think he's the vigi and I think if he is, it's a good risk to take, because we don't actually get anything from him being the vigi since he's not being active at all, just a random shot in the night from someone who can't even seem to read the whole thread since it gives him a headache, and we won't get a confirmed town because he could always be the serial killer, and it's really bad for us if he is sk and we don't lynch him. ##VOTE mtamburini | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
---------------- ---------------- First, I want to address timing of vigi claims and why I don't like mtamburini's claim. This is Second, I want to address looking at tamburini as vigilante or serial killer (probably another post) ---------------- ---------------- I agree with most of Eden’s points here (http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/447955-newbie-mini-mafia-lv?page=28#543) and essentially agree that mtamburini should not have claimed vigilante when he did. I don’t entirely agree with Eden's the first point - if mtamburini draws a mafia roleblock, it at least frees up other blue roles to perform night actions, but that isn't too important Second, I don't really like the claim because he claimed before defending himself. I'd have liked to see him push back more on the pressure on him. At the very least, shouldn't mtamburini be responding to the people putting pressure on him and seeing how they respond to determine if their pressure is legitimate or from a scum mindset? Third, mtamburini's explanation for revealing isn't that applicable to this game. On May 01 2014 07:18 mtamburini wrote: Its common practice in the video mafia games that I play in the Vigilante claims and lets everyone know that they will be shooting in case they die in the night and 2 kills happen instead of 1 so there is no confusion the next day ( we usually play with 2 kp for mafia until there is 2 of them left with no flips). In this game, mafia KP is always one. So if we see 2 KP, we have no doubt/confusion that a kill is coming from a vigilante or serial killer. In other words, this explanation makes sense in the video games, but it doesn't fit in this game. A quick note on claiming targets If you are a vig, I think it's often a good idea to only reveal who you are shooting shortly before night ends. If you post when the deadline hits 10 seconds or so, it denies scum the opportunity to respond to who you will kill (because their night actions are also time-limited). If we take tamburini as an example: he indicated he plans to shoot yell0w. This information could help town in limited situations (for instance, if yell0w is a blue role, maybe he claims it to avoid the shot, saving a town blue). But, it’s probably more likely to help mafia… if yell0w is mafia (which mafia knows), they have a higher incentive to try to lynch mtamburini today. If mafia has a roleblock, they can use it on mtamburini if yell0w is scum, or let mtamburini shoot yell0w if they know yell0w is town. Now, it’s fine if mtamburini is just being tricky and will actually shoot someone else, but it’s hard to really say much on WIFOM plays so let’s leave it at that. Even if that is his plan, I think it helps town for him to claim his actual shot shortly before the night ends so if the person dies we have a better idea where KP is coming from. -- That said, I do think it's good that mtamburini claimed early enough that we can respond to it and we get to see who wants to lynch him and who doesn't. I feel it's reasonable to think if yell0w is mafia, his teammates may be more likely to want to lynch mtamburini today; If yell0w is town, mafia is less likely to want to lynch mtamburini today. We can't necessarily expect mafia to be uniform on this, but it's something to think about if we see a flip on yell0w/mtamburini. --------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------- Questions: @mtamburini: If you are alive tonight, my preference is that you post just before the night-action deadline and indicate who you will target (confirming that you are killing yell0w or revealing your actual target). Also, since this pertains to timing a little- On April 10 2014 03:10 27ninjabunnies wrote: I totally agree. Claiming a role should be done at the last moment possible. So you immediately start with day in this setup? Interesting @ninjabunnies: This was a pregame post so I won't put much emphasis on it, but I would like to ask you this: what do you think of the timing of mtamburini's claim? @ninjabunnies: As a video mafia player with mtamburini, what do you think of mtamburini's explanation regarding claiming your target? --- I’ll comment in a few minutes on serial killer vs. mafia, with particular attention to Eden’s post here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/447955-newbie-mini-mafia-lv?page=28#551 | ||
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Amiko
United States1725 Posts
So this is more of the reason I don’t want to lynch mtamburini today. I think Eden makes some good points in his post here ( http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/447955-newbie-mini-mafia-lv?page=28#551 ) but is missing what I feel is the central difference between SK and Vigi. I think a serial killer does not want to appear that towny. If a serial killer is a good town leader, mafia probably kills the SK. If a serial killer catches mafia, mafia probably kills the SK. Given that, I don’t see mtamburini’s actions as strongly indicative of SK instead of vigilante. Specifically: - I don’t think a serial killer would start the game with a declaration of town leadership – this draws attention to himself when he should want to stay on the sidelines. - I don’t think a serial killer would put pressure on yell0w when people were starting to move away from him. - I don’t see why a serial killer would claim vigilante so quickly - mafia may reasonably believe he is a vigilante and shoot him. --------- So my feeling is: I don’t really feel mtamburini’s claim or play is great vigilante play; But, I also don’t really feel like it’s great serial killer play. Admittedly, I don’t think we are likely to have much amount of information tomorrow about mtamburini’s role (unless he gets killed). But, remember that whether you feel tamburini is vigilante OR whether you feel tamburini is serial killer, scum doesn’t know know which role it is, either. | ||
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