EPTNewbie Mini Mafia LV - Page 28
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27ninjabunnies
United States2486 Posts
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Yell0w
120 Posts
I'm just not sure why he would claim now without really saying anything else, why, if he mishoots, he's gonna sit in a corner and be useless, since he's gonna be a confirmed town and why he went so hard on me when he can just kill me in the night if he's convinced I'm mafia. | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
- If there's a mafia roleblocker, mtamburini just wasted our vigilante for literally no gain. - Even if he's not roleblocked, we have no way of knowing he's not the serial killer. In fact, his specific suggestion that the parity cop check him tonight and someone else n2 would fit perfectly with a serial killer planning to pick investigation immunity tonight. - I think an actual vigilante would have thought through these problems before claiming. - Even if we ignore the above, look at the context. This claim is basically "I'm just gonna claim because yolo didn't read." What purpose does this serve? How does this advance the town agenda? I don't think mtamburini is mafia, but I'm thinking there's a good chance he's the serial killer. I'm going to reread the whole thread and see how I feel about everyone else; I don't think this changes my scumread on Yell0w because mafia/sk is, from what I remember, a decent explanation for their interaction. While I'm reading, I want everyone online to tell me what they think about mtamburini's claim. | ||
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Yell0w
120 Posts
I didn't even consider serial killer, never played with any third party role before, but it does make a lot of sense with what he just said. | ||
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Epishade
United States2267 Posts
On May 01 2014 07:19 mtamburini wrote: Explain the benefits of me claiming Bird Jesus as mafia to only survive one more day according to your logic. What do you mean 'according to my logic'? I agree, there's not much benefit to surviving one more day as mafia by claiming Bird Jesus, especially when anybody else would be able to counterclaim (which I would highly doubt would happen at this point.) I was going to type more about why your claim was an awful move, but I refreshed and Eden pretty much covered anything I was going to bring up. That also means I was wrong to have you as a suspect in my scumread team, but I still haven't ruled out Sweetfrost and Ritoky as mafia. #Unvote: mtamburini | ||
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sqrtofneg1
Canada1159 Posts
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sqrtofneg1
Canada1159 Posts
9 posts so far. First post, he wants to lynch Yellow for joke posts. Second post, he says he doesn't suspect tambo as much b/c he put himself in the spotlight, and he thinks bunny is the most town. Third post, he says that we don't know how many mafia there are. Forth post, he turns against tambo, asks him questions. Fifth post, On April 30 2014 04:32 ahswtini wrote: I'm going to agree with this, wanting to make a conscious effort to appear town is also indicative of a new town player who lacks confidence. So far, I've been struggling because I want to make posts to avoid getting fos'd as an inactive, but at the same time I don't want to be rehashing existing ideas. is really just saying that he doesn't want to get killed even though he hasn't been posting much. Sixth post, he indulges Amiko's request of his thoughts on Sweetfrost. Seventh post, On April 30 2014 18:32 ahswtini wrote: This is a great post. I have nothing insightful of my own to add to the analysis there. However, out of the three, I think mtamburini is the best lynch here. ritoky and sweetfrost's posts are better in that they talk about many different people, whereas mtamburini seems to be gunning straight for yell0w. Therefore it'll be handier to keep ritoky and sweetfrost around for longer as we can get more information out of them provided they continue their way of posting. ##Vote: mtamburini he just says he likes the post by epishade, and then wants to lynch tambo. His most recent post is simply a collection of what's been going on. Think about it, he hasn't been doing anything really, just saying that he likes this, or saying that he agrees with that. His largest post is a collection of what's been going on. I asked for his reads once, he never said anything about them. He's not useful. He's lurking. I'm pretty darn sure he's mafia, and if he's not, we will have lynched a townie that hasn't been contributing. ##Vote: ahswtini | ||
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sqrtofneg1
Canada1159 Posts
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sqrtofneg1
Canada1159 Posts
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sqrtofneg1
Canada1159 Posts
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
Serial Killer vs Mafia Specifically reading someone as a serial killer as opposed to mafia on the first day is typically pretty difficult. The main long-run pattern that distinguishes the serial killer from a mafioso is that the serial killer doesn't coordinate with a team; you're only going to catch them purely by scumhunting in their actions specifically, as opposed to teasing them out as hypothetical teammates. On the first day, however, you can't really tease out mafia teammates definitively because you don't have any flips yet. All this to say that on the first day, behavioral analysis can tell us if someone is not town, but not if they are mafia or serial killer, because on the first day their behavioral incentives are largely the same. Usually, on the first day, that's enough of an obstacle to prevent being able to zero in on the serial killer. However, if the person in question talks enough about mechanical factors -- like roles -- as opposed to behavioral reads, certain divergent incentives can be parsed out which allow us to make the distinction between serial killer and mafia successfully. I intend first to prove that mtamburini's behavior is misaligned with town incentives and aligned with scum incentives (whether mafia or serial killer) and second to prove that mtamburini's role discussion doesn't align with mafia incentives but with serial killer incentives. This in turn will demonstrate that mtamburini is the serial killer. Why mtamburini Isn't Town Buddying mtamburini has been buddying 27ninjabunnies a lot throughout the game. It started during the joke phase, which is fine enough, but it continued on after bunnies started serious talk in this post -- directed, no less, at him. She calls him scum for trying to establish himself as town leader, which to me indicates drawing a clear line in the dirt saying "the game starts now." Here's a list of his posts buddying bunnies: - Here he says he REALLY hopes they're both town, invites her to rewatch an epicmafia game. The latter game is completely off-topic and we've moved on from the joke phase. The phrasing of that post is also bothering me. - Here is some completely useless filler cheerleading bunnies's pressure on Yell0w. Well, not totally useless. He's communicating to us that he saw this going down and didn't feel like commenting on it or developing it in any way. - Here, my god, what? His point on Yell0w is decent, but why the hell does he need bunnies to hold his hand while he votes for Yell0w? Is bunnies his seeing-eye dog, guiding him to the polling booth so that he can fulfill his civic duty to vote? - Here he takes up for bunnies in response to Yell0w's question. This isn't too bad and in isolation I wouldn't bother pointing it out. I made the same point. But in combination with these other examples it's clearly revealing a trend. - Free prize inside, he's buddying dfs here instead. Talking About Irrelevant Shit The title says it all, a good quarter of this guy's filter has nothing to do with the game. - [http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/mafia/447955-newbie-mini-mafia-lv?page=12#225]No one cares about his past games.[/url] - No, really, no one gives a shit about his past games. - I can't tell what's worse, his ability to stay on-task or his music taste. - Is moose in this game? - Is moose a codename? Your favorite animal? What does this have to do with the game??? I was fair about this assessment and only took the posts from after the point I previously determined to be the beginning of "serious mode." You can see from the timestamps that this wasn't some isolated event, the guy went on like this for quite some time. Not Scumhunting This one might be a little bit of a surprise. He's pushing hard on Yell0w, right? So how can we write him up for scumhunting? Except that if we understand "scumhunting" to mean "an individual questioning or engaging suspects on a substantial level in order to develop his or her own case for killing a certain player," mtamburini hasn't really done anything like that. Let's look at his posts on Yell0w and see whether he qualifies or not... - Here he makes a good start, buddying of bunnies aside. Yell0w is indeed suspicious for worrying as much as he is about being townie. But he literally doesn't do anything to develop this point any further. Yell0w and I, for example, talked for a few posts back-and-forth about this point and what it means. mtamburini doesn't engage Yell0w on this at all: he never asks Yell0w why he was so worried about looking townie, nor does he respond to anything Yell0w said to me or to others about this same point when we did press Yell0w on it. - Here he adds "sarcasm" as a reason to lynch Yell0w. Not only is this point independently terrible, he does nothing to develop it further, and he commits the same behavior he says is indicative of scum, then when Yell0w calls him out on it, he doesn't even bother to handwave it, he just ignores Yell0w's point completely. - Here he says that Yell0w's defense has been "WIFOM" and not-game-related. Please. This coming from the king of off-topic nonsense. And simply handwaving everything someone says as "WIFOM" is utterly unconvincing. - Here in his role claim he says "I like tunneling its fun." At this point he's openly admitting that he's not trying to find mafia. Tunneling isn't trying to find mafia. mtamburini is scum because he's been buddying heavily, he's posted a lot of contentless trash and he's not actually scumhunting, just finding an excuse to park his vote on someone and ride out the phase. Why mtamburini Isn't Mafia mtamburini says that he claimed in order to dispel any confusion about there being multiple kills tonight, arguing that it's common practice in video mafia. For there to be any confusion about kills tonight, the number of kills in the night would have to subvert our expectations regarding the number of deaths. That means there would need to be more or fewer kills. mtamburini is telling us there will be more (he specifies two kills instead of one). If he were mafia, then he would have no way of assuring us that there's an extra kill, and he would have needlessly put himself in the line of fire on day two because he would have had to argue that the person he shot was separately shot by the mafia. This only works if he's the vigilante or the serial killer. The second thing pointing to him being the serial killer is his argument about the parity cop. He says that the parity cop should check him first then someone else n2, so that the parity can have perfect information about his scans. This would effectively turn the parity cop into a normal cop, which substantially increases the power of the cop. Doing this as mafia doesn't make sense; as soon as someone flips the wrong way, he's caught. This only works if he would actually scan as an innocent. He would scan as an innocent if he were the vigilante, the godfather, or the serial killer. Even if he's the godfather, though, this is a very bad strategy because the parity cop scanning the godfather as innocent still gives perfect information to the town; if the parity cop happened to scan his scumbuddy next, the scumbuddy would be lynched and flip guilty. This makes a lot of sense if he's a serial killer planning to take investigation immunity, however. In that case, anyone who scanned opposite to him would get lynched, which advances his agenda of killing off the mafia. Furthermore the mafia can't afford to nightkill him n1 because if he does take investigation immunity, he's effectively "upgraded" the parity cop to a normal cop. And if the mafia aren't going to nightkill him, and he's the serial killer, he doesn't have to worry about being nightkilled, so nightkill immunity isn't helpful anyway. He has no reason not to take investigation immunity here. mtamburini is the serial killer because his proposed strategy regarding his role and the parity cop doesn't make sense unless he's either the serial killer or the vigilante, and he's not town (see first half of case). mtamburini is the serial killer. ##UNVOTE ##VOTE mtamburini | ||
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sqrtofneg1
Canada1159 Posts
On May 01 2014 07:37 Eden1892 wrote: - Even if he's not roleblocked, we have no way of knowing he's not the serial killer. In fact, his specific suggestion that the parity cop check him tonight and someone else n2 would fit perfectly with a serial killer planning to pick investigation immunity tonight. No, serial killer must choose before d1 starts. | ||
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
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sqrtofneg1
Canada1159 Posts
However, what if he is vigi? We lose a huge asset. For mafia, who would be the logical n1 kill? The vigi claim. That's obvious. Whether or not he's serial killer doesn't matter to them, mafia's not gonna take that chance. Mafia will kill him n1. I say we let him be. I say we take the chance and believe him. | ||
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sqrtofneg1
Canada1159 Posts
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sqrtofneg1
Canada1159 Posts
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
On May 01 2014 09:26 sqrtofneg1 wrote: After reading that, I see the strong probability that tambo is serial killer. However, what if he is vigi? We lose a huge asset. For mafia, who would be the logical n1 kill? The vigi claim. That's obvious. Whether or not he's serial killer doesn't matter to them, mafia's not gonna take that chance. Mafia will kill him n1. I say we let him be. I say we take the chance and believe him. If he's the vigilante then he's either getting shot tonight (in which case he gets to use 1 kp at most) or he's getting roleblocked (in which case he'll never get to shoot). I should have gone over that in more detail in my analysis, but my posts preceding it should suffice I think. | ||
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sqrtofneg1
Canada1159 Posts
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Eden1892
United States5866 Posts
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sqrtofneg1
Canada1159 Posts
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