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On June 27 2013 03:50 hzflank wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2013 03:43 Chromatically wrote:On June 27 2013 03:40 hzflank wrote: My problem is that Chromatically, Tofu and Hurricane have not pressured each other since the flip. The flip made you all look guilty for different reasons. I expected you to defend yourselves by investigating each other. You are better placed to investigate each other than I am, because you know if you are town.
The best way for the town to get a correct read on which of you is scum (if any) is if you look for guilt in each other. Why don't you explain how the flip made each of us look bad? Why don't you do some scum hunting? Really?
I've clearly explained why I think that Onegu looks the worst from the lynch. I also don't like how Spicy looks, which I've explained.
I'm obviously not going to waste time pressuring people who I think are town. If you think that we look bad, it's your job to do the pressuring. I don't think that either of them look bad.
So why don't you do some scum hunting?
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On June 27 2013 03:53 hzflank wrote: I wanted to give you a chance to look into it yourselves to earn some town cred, but everyone went straight for Onegu, then when that did not get enough support some of you also poked at Spicy.
I don't want to make any sort of case yet, because I want to be sure who the case will be against, if and when I make it. So i dont want to walk you through it.
I wont be on until the end of the night now. I look forward to your case.
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On June 27 2013 03:53 hzflank wrote: I wanted to give you a chance to look into it yourselves to earn some town cred, but everyone went straight for Onegu, then when that did not get enough support some of you also poked at Spicy.
I don't want to make any sort of case yet, because I want to be sure who the case will be against, if and when I make it. So i dont want to walk you through it.
I wont be on until the end of the night now.
You're using a lot of generalizations. Your arguments become much stronger when you stop using words like 'everyone' to describe individual actions. If you can find instances of each person's attack on Onegu and pokes on Spicy, they will be forced to respond. This post in its current state is very ignore-able (not because it lacks merit, but because there's little pressure being exerted due to the wording).
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StiM and LoneMeow are going to decide which way the lynch goes because I believe that:
Spicy, Onegu, Alakaslam, and hzflank will vote together no matter what AND Chromatically, Hurricane, Aqua, and I will vote together no matter what.
We should work on convincing the two deciding votes at this point. I'm going back to making my defense against Onegu's accusations.
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Ok well I am going to sleep. Also when you lie once what is to stop you from doing it again it does hurt town and lieing to get your way is scummy. When you say I want this person lynched instead of this person and I will say or do anything for that to happen, that is very scummy.
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For what it's worth, I do not hold it against FirmTofu for misleading me to get me on the Xzavier bandwagon. I'd expect anyone who was trying to lynch their Scum read to do whatever it takes at a crucial time in the vote to secure the win. For context: the vote was tied, and there was reason to believe Onegu would join the Aqua bandwagon. By getting one vote up FIRST, Xzavier's bandwagon would win the time-sensitive tie-breaker.
You can see this fits FirmTofu's aggressive playstyle later when he bullies Alakaslam into committing to the Onegu bandwagon. Is it dirty play? Yes. Would I have done it? No. Did it cross my mind? Yes. But I can TOTALLY see it as legitimate town play. If you are confident in your reads, you make these plays.
This should not read as a defense of FirmTofu as town. I equate this playstyle issue to people getting on Aqua for revealing his opinions on the NN reveal. It's a difference of opinion, but has no bearing on alignment. These issues are both null to me. I'll seriously consider cases against FirmTofu that don't center on 'well he lied and manipulated two floaters into voting for his wagon'.
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On June 27 2013 04:03 FirmTofu wrote: StiM and LoneMeow are going to decide which way the lynch goes because I believe that:
Spicy, Onegu, Alakaslam, and hzflank will vote together no matter what AND Chromatically, Hurricane, Aqua, and I will vote together no matter what.
We should work on convincing the two deciding votes at this point. I'm going back to making my defense against Onegu's accusations.
This is an extremely stupid thing to say before the NK.
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On June 27 2013 04:03 FirmTofu wrote: StiM and LoneMeow are going to decide which way the lynch goes because I believe that:
Spicy, Onegu, Alakaslam, and hzflank will vote together no matter what AND Chromatically, Hurricane, Aqua, and I will vote together no matter what.
We should work on convincing the two deciding votes at this point. I'm going back to making my defense against Onegu's accusations.
Fortunately, it is also incredibly inaccurate.
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On June 27 2013 04:08 Hurricane Sponge wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2013 04:03 FirmTofu wrote: StiM and LoneMeow are going to decide which way the lynch goes because I believe that:
Spicy, Onegu, Alakaslam, and hzflank will vote together no matter what AND Chromatically, Hurricane, Aqua, and I will vote together no matter what.
We should work on convincing the two deciding votes at this point. I'm going back to making my defense against Onegu's accusations. This is an extremely stupid thing to say before the NK. This should be obvious. I am trying to redirect town to focus on convincing people who's opinions can actually be changed.
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I think you're wrong, but if you want to direct your posts at two people who have a combined 10 posts in 70+ hours of the game, you're wasting your time. You should be making arguments that make valid cases on legitimate scum reads, not trying to tailor evidence to secure specific votes.
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On June 27 2013 04:07 Onegu wrote: Ok well I am going to sleep. Also when you lie once what is to stop you from doing it again it does hurt town and lieing to get your way is scummy. When you say I want this person lynched instead of this person and I will say or do anything for that to happen, that is very scummy.
At the end of the day, everyone's vote is their own responsibility. If Tofu manages to convince people to vote for his target, that is not to be held against him. If anything, you should be mad at me and alakaslam for allowing ourselves to be manipulated by him.
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On June 27 2013 04:20 Hurricane Sponge wrote: I think you're wrong, but if you want to direct your posts at two people who have a combined 10 posts in 70+ hours of the game, you're wasting your time. You should be making arguments that make valid cases on legitimate scum reads, not trying to tailor evidence to secure specific votes. Fair enough. I think I have already made a valid case on Onegu. I can perhaps look into his filter to see if I can catch anything I didn't see the first read through.
I'll save my vote targeting evidence for daytime. On a another note, I am glad that you have not declared you allegiance with our ragtag team of bandwagoners. We need doubt and constant questioning to keep us on our toes. You are the only one who is active and hasn't take. A specific side, and I admire that.
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I have some thoughts on lying that I'd like to wait until the resolution period to post, but I'm going to assume that Tofu won't be lying again.
There's no way for town to tell if you're a lying townie or scum who's trying to cover up a mistake.
I will be sorely, sorely tempted to policy lynch you if you lie again.
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On June 27 2013 04:26 Chromatically wrote: I have some thoughts on lying that I'd like to wait until the resolution period to post, but I'm going to assume that Tofu won't be lying again.
There's no way for town to tell if you're a lying townie or scum who's trying to cover up a mistake.
I will be sorely, sorely tempted to policy lynch you if you lie again. Point taken. I won't be doing it again, that I can promise.
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On June 27 2013 04:26 Chromatically wrote: I have some thoughts on lying that I'd like to wait until the resolution period to post, but I'm going to assume that Tofu won't be lying again.
There's no way for town to tell if you're a lying townie or scum who's trying to cover up a mistake.
I will be sorely, sorely tempted to policy lynch you if you lie again.
I didn't think of this. I will be re-evaluating my thoughts on this matter in light of new information.
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On June 27 2013 04:34 Hurricane Sponge wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2013 04:26 Chromatically wrote: I have some thoughts on lying that I'd like to wait until the resolution period to post, but I'm going to assume that Tofu won't be lying again.
There's no way for town to tell if you're a lying townie or scum who's trying to cover up a mistake.
I will be sorely, sorely tempted to policy lynch you if you lie again. I didn't think of this. I will be re-evaluating my thoughts on this matter in light of new information. I think the distinguishing factor is intent. What intention would a scum Tofu have to save Aquanim?
The only possible scenario I see is if Aqua and I are both scum and I was desperately trying to get the vote off him by lying. If you adhere to that belief, you have a case against me. But otherwise, I don't think you can hold it against me.
In the context of my lie, aqua and I being different alignments is incompatible.
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EBWOP: change intent to motivation. I think motivation is a more apt term for the meaning I am trying to get across. P.S I think I just made a better case against myself than anyone has so far in this game. Not sure if this was a wise decision, but we shall see.
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I went for a dive through Xzavier's filter again to see if I could glean anything useful. (It turns out that even KNOWING he's town doesn't help the massive scum read I get from him.) The most content I can bring forward from this journey is the following:
Based on Xzavier's history (Yes, I'm using meta. Yes, it's based off one game. If this sort of thing doesn't interest you, move along.) he was also a Vanilla Townie in last week's TL Newbie Mafia game. His scumhunting skills are horrible. Day One he led a bandwagon on a townie against a Scum wagon. Day Two, he voted for a vanilla townie. Day Three he voted for a townie after unvoting two votes, one for a townie and one for a scum.
Point: Xzavier's opinions on who is Scum in this game are probably not too useful.
For posterity: Xzavier's scum reads in his own words (after I pressured him to get his reads out before he was lynched):
On June 26 2013 03:50 Xzavier wrote: I dont get why aqua and chrome are voting somebody they know can be a good town. I havnt made huge cases yet, i havnt had time to. ill be active during night one if im still aliv. I would prefer to delay my lynch until day2. today id like a lynch on alakazam or aqua. idc which. ill probably choose between the two on my break fepending on the situation.
IF I DO GET LYNCHED: everybody take a long hard look at aqua and chrom.
and look at alakazam now he lurks and one of his few posts was saying im sheeping and doing no scumhunting this game until the guy im sheeping looks scummy. the godfather last game i was in said something almost identical to that. its a pretty big noob scum tell imo. alone it judt warrents serious investifagation.
He goes on to basically admit that his suspicion of Aqua and Chrom are OMGUS:
On June 25 2013 15:29 Xzavier wrote:Show nested quote +On June 25 2013 15:16 FirmTofu wrote: Hey Xzavier, what do you think about Spicy? Would you be willing to switch your vote onto him? Honestly not today. he did a really good jpb as town last game and gave some good insights. After going threw his filter it seems like he was forced into a defensive posting pattern due to pressure. he hasnt said much recently. Honestly i wouldnt mind lynching alakazam day 1. But ill giv him a chance to respond. Im really not liking chrom or auqa for their tunnelling me while ignoring logic and basing everything off of the fact that i havnt caught scum yet or made a case.
However, after reading the Newbie Mafia XLII thread, his vocal town reads were actually pretty solid. Sure, he thought some townies were scum, but the people who he was confident enough to say out loud were town were all correct. I can't find an instance of him thinking a scum was Town (I comed his filter HARD).
Point: Xzavier has a good track record when deciding someone is Town.
For posterity: Xzavier's town read(s) this game (with some bonus OMGUS at the end for flavor):
On June 26 2013 09:07 Xzavier wrote: Unfortunately. im going to dissapoint you by flipping green. I will say this:
i firmly believe firmtofu is town. :D
no really iv gotten that vibe. not all that strong.
HZ flank also stfikes me as town. or hes playing the riskiest scum gambet. but all he would be gaining is a little towncred. so in pretty confident hes town.
Heres list of people to look ibto: lonemeow. aqua. alakazam. Chromatically.
Because they hav tunneled me and ignored logic and focused on tgeir silly probably purposely bad logic.
Like it or not, Xzavier is still a townie. Keep his voice in mind if you're on the fence about someone or need extra input. Remember that HE IS STILL TOWN and can still win this game. I didn't see anyone going over Xzavier's filter (or fyfy's filter) so this analysis needed to be posted and deserves your consideration.
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On June 27 2013 04:48 FirmTofu wrote:Show nested quote +On June 27 2013 04:34 Hurricane Sponge wrote:On June 27 2013 04:26 Chromatically wrote: I have some thoughts on lying that I'd like to wait until the resolution period to post, but I'm going to assume that Tofu won't be lying again.
There's no way for town to tell if you're a lying townie or scum who's trying to cover up a mistake.
I will be sorely, sorely tempted to policy lynch you if you lie again. I didn't think of this. I will be re-evaluating my thoughts on this matter in light of new information. I think the distinguishing factor is intent. What intention would a scum Tofu have to save Aquanim? The only possible scenario I see is if Aqua and I are both scum and I was desperately trying to get the vote off him by lying. If you adhere to that belief, you have a case against me. But otherwise, I don't think you can hold it against me. In the context of my lie, aqua and I being different alignments is incompatible.
Relax. No more defense. It's night time, let's see some offense. Make a list of your scum reads (privately) and start chasing down your second and third options. Really vet them. And start making gameplans (again, privately) and courses of action you'd like to pursue for different NK scenarios.
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