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On September 09 2012 22:51 Shady Sands wrote: And BM please respond to DP's post.
He did. I think. He clarified that although sloosh looks logical, his posts are just summations of what is happening rather than actual scum hunting.
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On September 09 2012 23:26 DarthPunk wrote:Show nested quote +On September 09 2012 22:51 Shady Sands wrote: And BM please respond to DP's post. He did. I think. He clarified that although sloosh looks logical, his posts are just summations of what is happening rather than actual scum hunting. Got it.
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On September 09 2012 19:05 Forumite wrote:I don´t understand why Z-boson talks about asking vets to confirm the number of watchers. There are probably more watchers in this game but we can´t know, so using that as any basis for a lynch is a very bad idea. His post-lynch post about how vets should have confirmed the number of watchers and that there must be a scum among the vets, it's a useless post and doesn´t sit well with me. He´s trying to shift the blame on vets even though none of his suspicions have any grounds, but posts like that usually makes it easier to start a wagon later in the game because "people have been suspicious". I´d rather see Z-boson make a real case on someone. Toades, we don´t know if Palmar deliberately made sure to put vets on the scumteam. Even if Palmar put vets on the scumteam, I once lost the game for town (as town) by trying to start a wagon on Palmar, because he was leading town too well. Do you think it´s likely he´d try and boost the scumteam by adding me? Also; Bill Murray, get in here.
I asked this, because I thought that it could be likely to have just one. My reasoning was: if the odds are high that there is only one, then we shouldn't have lynched BKE. But now both you and Toad said that it can be anything, so I'll agree with you, this bit does not weigh in at all to pointing fingers. However, I already have my suspicions on Toad, and he has some on you. BM and Toad were gone during the BKE lynch, and you weren't weighing in too heavily on it. BM is playing the drunken fool, and I don't if that's so no one can accuse him properly, if that's because he doesn't want to get shot, or if it's because that's just how he is. Seems reasonable what's not there to like. Oh - cases are coming, chillax.
Also, the accusations on Hapa are worthless right now, save them for D3. Right now the town focus should be more productive to help the vigi determine who he will shoot. I think the discussion should be entirely about vets right now, as you guys have more experience with each other and with the game, and that the odds are high one of you dies tonight. I'm sure we can all agree to this, no?
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EBWOP:
Right now the town focus should be more productive to help the vigi determine who he will shoot. I think the discussion should be entirely about vets right now, as you guys have more experience with each other and with the game, and that the odds are high one of you dies tonight. I'm sure we can all agree to this, no?
I phrased myself wrong, let me correct myself. Not entirely. Vigi shooting a vet right now is dumb, and reading right now I wasn't clear with this in the above post. What I mean is: 1) Vets should post more. Our reads on vets should be made clear right now, so they can also comment and so we can know what they think of each other, given their experience and their likelihood to die. 2) However, vigi must also decide who to shoot (if at all), and a lurker with inconsistencies and a general scummy profile would fit this best, in my opinion. Shooting a high-profile person right now is risky as hell, unless there is irrefutable scum evidence, which I find unlikely at this stage.
1) and 2) in order of priority, from my opinion.
Does this make sense?
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First off, I don't buy ShiaoPi's excuse. If Shiao is moving into university as he is suggesting, I find it hard to believe he'd sign up for a Mafia game if he knew his schedule. He was also plenty active to respond to Maverick's suspicion against him - and much more frequently than the "10 minute loading time" per page he was suggesting about his internet earlier.
Finally, Shiao's only standing read is an OMGUS against Maverick.
Strongly suggest shooting him tonight.
Also, I won't be as active for the next few hours, so I wanted to comment on...
Bill Murray
This is mostly based on his actions (inactions?) during the BKE lynch.
Right around when I dropped the case on BKE, Bill Murray had a burst of 6 short posts, all compiled into one larger one for your convenience:
id love to lynch maverick or hapahauli why are people voting BKE? can i get a summary of the case?
Hapahauli's link doesn't count = 13 lines of rubbish he linked ON THE SAME PAGE
If Doyouhas is town we don't lynch Hapahauli If Doyouhas is scum we lynch Hapahauli imo
I'll be here for a few hours if anyone would like to discuss anything
I had a post about associative tells, but honestly, I'm not even going to bring another one up. I'll be waiting to push someone on hard evidence, like what I found (not saying it was my case.. but filtering him, it glared out at me... so i found it as well) on Mattchew.
I summarized the case for him and never heard back from him. The only post he made between there and after the lynch is this weak-sauce soft-push of BKE:
On September 08 2012 15:40 Bill Murray wrote:Show nested quote +On September 08 2012 03:12 BroodKingEXE wrote:On September 07 2012 11:37 Hapahauli wrote:Before I go to bed for the night: BroodKingEXEHe has two very suspicious posts regarding two confirmed players: Mattchew and Ottoxlol.
A bit before Mattchew is scum-confirmed (right around when a few players start voting for Mattchew), Broodking posts this unbelievably wishy-washy opinion on Mattchew. On September 04 2012 16:20 BroodKingEXE wrote: About Mattchew (who I think is town): Here's my breakdown of the situation : Matt's roleclaimed and given two reasons he claimed to avoid mislynch and/or draw a mafia shot. At first glance the roleclaim seemed like a great idea, but as I thought about it there were just too many holes. My initial thought was that it was a good idea and that could have been Matt's (based on the reasoning too). Another problem I find with lynching him is that what he has done (roleclaim) isn't verifiable until he is lynched. Right now its a coinflip and I haven't seen anything else that suggests he is scum. Fakeclaims aren't good basis for a lynch, they're not even able to be confirmed until the lynch, so I cant vote for him unless his posting sounds scummy. Look at the logic - he first thinks its a great idea, then there are "too many holes." He doesn't want to lynch him because his "roleclaim isn't verifiable until he is lynched" - the hell? He said he's town originally, then says "its a coinflip" Then he says "Fakeclaims aren't good basis for a lynch" and wants to wait until "mattchew sounds scummy". Again, the fakeclaim is the entire reason everyone voted for him. But wait! Two pages after the fakeclaim (and before Mattchew posted anything in the interim): On September 05 2012 00:12 BroodKingEXE wrote: Unvote ##Vote: Mattchew
Wow. After stating earlier that the fakeclaim wasn't enough to lynch Mattchew, he votes Mattchew for that very reasoning.
His viewpoints on Ottoxlol are the nail in the coffin: Goes from top scumread: No, his response was belivable based on posts he made after his sloosh interaction. Ottox has replaced him [ed note: Broodking's scumread on Toad due to the fact that he is pushing a "Matt is an assasin/townie scheme" instead of pushing his scum read toad. Then proceeds to push cases against Miltonkram, Shadysands, and Gravan while Ottox is his top scumread: Then says strange things about potentially townie Ottox while keeping a scumread on him. filter My 2 cents about the Ottox thing. I played with him in Area 53 and he's as stubborn as a mule. I could see him trying to derail a lynch from a town perspective. I just don't get why as town he wont push a lynch canidate (in all seriousness his isn't doing much to push toad or hapa). That's why Im keeping a scum read on him. Then SOFT DEFENDS OTTOX when talking to DrHOn September 06 2012 16:03 BroodKingEXE wrote:It was later in the game from what I remember, just that he doesn't really listen (or ignores) others logic. BroodKingEXE is scum!##Vote BroodKingEXE I've got a break to post. The reason I didn't like the idea of voting for a fake-claim is because short of Mod-confirmation, we wouldn't have any way to confirm BC's theory. I switched my vote because the fake-claim was confirmed and Mattchew had made no attempt to explain the fake-claim from a town perspective. considering... like... people (a guy named xelin, off the top) have had nosy-neighbor roles before? i disagree w this
This is the only post he makes during the BKE push. Note that he doesn’t take a stance and simply disagrees with BKE’s defense.
Then, after the BKE lynch...
i cant believe you all lynched BKX You all need to listen to me, even if I've been drinking lightly.
All of a sudden, he acts as if he was against BKE the whole time. Now I’m not sure if BillMurray is capable of doing stuff like this as town (his normal posting is scummy after all), but this specific thing seems scummy as hell to me.
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^To continue the above:
Bill Murray reads to me like he didn't give a shit who got lynched on D2.
Regarding ShadySands "case" or whatever
I find most of the reasoning insane, so I'll dispatch of this as quickly as possible:
This + Hapa flipflopping on Ottox, while remaining adamant about BKE based on the same reasoning that led him to flip-flop on Ottox himself.
If Palmar has put a vet in the scumteam, Hapa looks like the biggest candidate.
Already replied to DarthPunk's post, and he looks satisfied enough not to pursue it. I thought Ottox was town because he consistently hard-defended Mattchew. The more I saw him hard defend Mattchew, I eventually became convinced he was bad town. Yes, I thought BKE flip-flopped on Mattchew in a scummy way - BKE never explained his rationale for it and made a complete 180. I don't know what about this is "inconsistent"
As for the Palmar putting a "vet" on the scumteam, how the hell am I a vet - this is my 5th game and 2nd non-newbie game? Hell why are you speculating on how Palmar chose teams? Plus within the bounds of your argument, Mattchew is a vet and already flipped red.
1) Hapa is playing off his meta while ignoring my shift on meta. 2) Hapa is being very selective/arbitrary in his scumhunting, and so far has led us to mislynch someone. Note that neither part of #2 is scummy on its own, but when taken together, are a clear scumtell.
You still haven't described how I'm playing off my meta. You keep pointing to Newbie XXIII, while ignoring my scum-meta in XXII (where I was incredibly consistent in my reads I might add).
Wtf does "selective/arbitrary" mean? I got a read wrong, shit happens. A mislynch doesn't make me scum. I find it strange you're blaming me for a mislynch considering our "history" together. You've been spouting stuff about how I'm a good scumhunter and wouldn't lead a mislynch based on Newbie XXIII, when in fact, you've otherwise been consistently accusing me of cheating/getting-lucky in that game. You need to explain this. #1 and #2 taken separately aren't scumtells. When someone puts them together and decides its a scumtell, they're on hard hallucinogens.
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On September 10 2012 00:44 Z-BosoN wrote: I asked this, because I thought that it could be likely to have just one. My reasoning was: if the odds are high that there is only one, then we shouldn't have lynched BKE. (1) Hi guys, I had this question. Depending on the answer, I didn't want to lynch BKE. It didn't get answered, but I lynched BKE anyway. Oops.
(2) Why does the number of watchers matter here? We shouldn't be lynching townies regardless of how many we have. 1 watcher has 1 watcher of value, whether we have 1, 2, 3, infinity. Z-BosoN seems to be indicating here that if we only had one watcher we shouldn't have lynched a claimed watcher, but if we had multiple ones...we should? The number of roles has absolutely no bearing on BKE's claim, except that if we have more watchers then it's technically more likely that any given person is a watcher, because math.
(3) Before the flip, we didn't even know if BKE was a watcher or not. Seeing as how most of town voted for him, you clearly didn't. Z-BosoN voted for BKE, didn't believe he was a watcher, this reasoning doesn't make any sense, because the number of watchers doesn't matter when Z-BosoN thought BKE was not one of them.
For anyone not liking Z-BosoN for scum, please read these posts talking about his reasoning, then notice that he didn't care enough to not vote BKE.
On September 10 2012 01:11 Z-BosoN wrote:EBWOP: Show nested quote +Right now the town focus should be more productive to help the vigi determine who he will shoot. I think the discussion should be entirely about vets right now, as you guys have more experience with each other and with the game, and that the odds are high one of you dies tonight. I'm sure we can all agree to this, no? I phrased myself wrong, let me correct myself. Not entirely. Vigi shooting a vet right now is dumb, and reading right now I wasn't clear with this in the above post. What I mean is: 1) Vets should post more. Our reads on vets should be made clear right now, so they can also comment and so we can know what they think of each other, given their experience and their likelihood to die. 2) However, vigi must also decide who to shoot (if at all), and a lurker with inconsistencies and a general scummy profile would fit this best, in my opinion. Shooting a high-profile person right now is risky as hell, unless there is irrefutable scum evidence, which I find unlikely at this stage. 1) and 2) in order of priority, from my opinion. Does this make sense? Guys, stop scumhunting and focus only on the people I want to talk about. I want our vigi(s) to decide who to shoot, but I only want to talk about vets, except I don't want vigi(s) shooting vets. In fact, I want shots on "a lurker with inconsistencies and a general scummy profile," but I'll won't name anyone specific AND if you try to discuss non-vets I'll be sad.
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Assorted stuff - - Hapa's not a vet.
- I have a town read on ShadySands.
- The amount someone posts is not super convincing, unless there's a very long history and it's very clear that ~x posts is scummy, ~y posts is townie. Otherwise "usually posts more" just means "less active this game" which could be for a number of reasons
- Last night was quite useful, despite there being a lack of talking about vets like Z-BosoN talking. Concentrated posting by a couple people really helps us make reads on them.
- Currently have a town read on Bill Murray. Not terribly sure why, but a hunch.
On September 09 2012 13:40 Shady Sands wrote: No, I'm calling for the shot on you[Hapahauli] and calling for the lynch on grush. I know I can get grush lynched, given how anti-town he's playing. You're a tougher nut to crack, especially with scumbuddies and misguided townies to soft-defend you. Whether Grush is town or mafia, I absolutely disagree that he's been playing anti-town this game. He shat up the thread at one point, noting that he was doing so. Apart from that, he's been surprisingly helpful. I do not understand where you're getting your read.
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I've got a little task for people, read this game: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=330925 Also make sure to read the obs-QT and especially Syllos opinion on forumite (click me!) I know I don't usually ask people to read older games because it's a pain in the ass but this one is important.
When you're done reading I want you to think about forumite. There's 4 major things that come to my mind when thinking about forumite:
- He is cautious when posting
- He is only posting when he has to
- He is isn't interested in what's going on or helping town at all
- He's doing apeshit right now
It's the very same thing we had in WoF. Town-Forumite is useful, good and will do STUFF. Can you think of one important post forumite has done this game? Just one that instantly pops into your mind? I can't without having his filter opened because there's really not much that sticks out. His most important post probably was this: + Show Spoiler [click me] +On September 09 2012 06:32 Forumite wrote: Kreb (Miltonkram) (0)
Hapahauli
BroodKingEXE (16) Hapahauli slOosh imallinson
Shady Sands Hopeless1der ShiaoPi Rewok DoYouHas Maverick32x
grush57 Forumite Gravan
Toadesstern
grush57 strongandbig grush57 Toadesstern Shady Sands Z-BosoN Kreb (Miltonkram)
DoYouHas (1) Bill Murray
ShiaoPi (0)
Maverick32x
Maverick32x (0)
BroodKingEXE
Shady Sands (0)
grush57
grush57 (1) DarthPunk
Toadesstern
Shady Sands
Z-BosoN (2)
grush57 austinmcc BroodKingEXE
Not yet voted! (1) Lvdr (mkfuba07) LOL
About his cautiousness: I already quoted this but just as an example for this, you'll find multiple posts like the following in his filter:
On September 08 2012 10:18 Forumite wrote: @Toades
After the D2-post you said you didn´t like the case on me provided by Hapless and Hapa, but you still thought I was probably scum. The only reason I remember was elimination, out of the people you stated are vets they are either dead or me, and those who died flipped town. Is that your case, "There should be scum among the vets, and now that some flipped town, the living ones are probably scum"? Because it´s a very convenient thing to say for scum, if people say there must be scum in a group, then scum kill half the group if it´s full of town, and leave it alone if there´s a scum in it so their buddy can hide better. I´m not saying that´s what happened, but it´s shaky to claim this early in a game that the last survivor of a group of must be scum event though the others flipped town.
Apart from that you said you thought I wasn´t as aggressive as usual. Partly that is because I don´t keep myself as updated as I usually do due to more stuff happening IRL than usual, but I also don´t want to make the mistake I did in DF-Mafia.
Anyway you need more reasons to you call me scum. What is it? You'll find stuff like that all over his filter. He's always making sure to have a possible retreat when posting and not committing in the slightest.
He only really posts when he has to:
On September 07 2012 07:48 Forumite wrote: =(
Toades, what do you want most, an answer to the case on me posted during the night, or my top scumreads. It´s late and I´m too tired to do both right now.
On September 07 2012 08:17 Forumite wrote:Show nested quote +On September 07 2012 07:56 Toadesstern wrote:On September 07 2012 07:48 Forumite wrote: =(
Toades, what do you want most, an answer to the case on me posted during the night, or my top scumreads. It´s late and I´m too tired to do both right now. I don't consider the case on you to be good and I don't agree with it. I want to lynch you because of method or elimination. So I'd rather see you talk about targets for today. I have two scumreads right now. I had Ottox down as scum, I was wrong but it shouldn´t affect the other reads. They are both based on the time around Matts claim. The first one is Maverick for his first post in the game, it was a reaction to Matts claim and the situation around it, and he was basically trying to divert attention to everyone else, without committing to anything. The second one is Hapa for his posts during the same time. The post below sums it up well. Show nested quote +On September 04 2012 09:32 Hapahauli wrote:On September 04 2012 09:26 Mattchew wrote:On September 04 2012 09:22 Hapahauli wrote: Yeah I know what the role does, so what about it? I'll ask a question if I don't understand something. there is no information given to the role, it is a VT that (randomly) visits people. If a tracker or watcher see me on their check it could lead to a stupid mislynch Ah thanks for clearing it up. I'm just a bit wary of D1 claims in general after having seen SnB's "self-aware miller" claim in DeathNote Mini Mafia, justified or not. On September 04 2012 09:22 Toadesstern wrote:On September 04 2012 09:17 Mattchew wrote:On September 04 2012 09:16 Hapahauli wrote:On September 04 2012 09:12 Mattchew wrote: I am a nosy neighbor. Anyone else with this role should insta-claim as well. Hold up. Why would we want people with information roles to claim? ##vote hapahauli need an honest answer. What do you consider worse: a) People not thinking while posting / reading b) People defending other people 1 hour into the game when they have no reason to do such a thing and should be happy to see as much posts from the person in question defending himself rather than stopping the discussion defending him. Howabout c) People who pick fights with people who are trying to start conversation (slOosh) for the sake of picking fights? When I read this post at first, I see Hapa buddying up with Matt and throwing suspicion on those attacking him. It didn´t feel right, Matt claiming didn´t arouse any suspicion in him. He said hi to Matt and then chided those attacking him. That´s the ones that jumped out at me when reading the thread. Yes, I should reread all the spam from yesterday, I´ll see about that tomorrow. tl;dr: Hapahauli Maverick32x That's something we rarely see when looking through foru's filter: He's talking about his read after being pressured by me and giving some minor insight on what he thinks is happening. However, why is that only happening after I call him out as mafia? I tell people he's mafia, he instantly gets in the thread and posts something like that when all the time people weren't talking about him he did nothing like that. That my dear friends is scummy as shit
As mentioned I don't think he's interested in what's happening. I can't remember a significant post foru did because there was none. He isn't even trying to help. No "shut up guys, here's what's going on: XXXX, Therefore we lynch Y". No pushing his reads to make sure the best possible lynch ends up happening. He's just completly standing by, posting some minor things if he has to but nothing else. Town-Foru would be interested in what's going on. Town-Foru would be pushing his reads. Town-Foru would be actively trying to help town and not just stand by.
It's just the same thing as WoF. He was mafia in that game and did apeshit. For some reason he never ended up being lynched although Sandroba and I called him mafia straight from d1 and sadly nothing happened. Let me assure you, Foru would be doing SOMETHING to help if he was town. He isn't.
Forumite is mafia Also vote me for mayor
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can you give a # for syllo's post on Forumite in obs?
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##vote: toad for mayor
No but actually, you bring up a very good point. I played in WoF and Forumite this game does remind me of his play from that game.
That said, I think austin's case on z-boson is pretty good as well - he's hedging a lot, and his reasoning around the BKE vote really doesn't make much sense. So toad and austin, since both of you are pretty decent players and regardless of your own alignments are gonna be pretty good at mafia logic, what do you make of each others' cases?
One last thing - I don't have all that much time so I was looking through some shorter filters. What do people think of hopeless1der? His filter can be described as - kind of a scummy waffle around the mattchew lynch - tunneling forumite
Now, on the one hand I think forumite is a decent scum candidate; but seriously I don't think hopeless has talked about anything else for more than one or two lines. This is a contradiction for me from past games, where hopeless's filter has looked well-thought-out and where it's easy to get a town read on him. Also I feel like there might be a contradiction here:
On September 05 2012 06:18 Hopeless1der wrote:Show nested quote +On September 05 2012 06:09 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On September 05 2012 05:57 Bill Murray wrote:On September 04 2012 09:36 Forumite wrote:On September 04 2012 09:12 Mattchew wrote: I am a nosy neighbor. Anyone else with this role should insta-claim as well.
The reason people policy lynch people like BM and Grush is because they get by into later in the game because they are unreadable. This is because they barely actually play the game and if you end up in lylo with one of them left, you've basically already lost. I completely understand anyone wanting to policy lynch them, but we should also not allow them to be off the hook for some sort of scum read during the day.
That being said, I remember thinking to myself that I don't hate BM's play in the last few games I have been in with him. I do not want to policy lynch today.
Why would you claim this? You eliminated yourself as a possible blue from scums list of townies, and it´s not like you doing this eliminates you as a scum suspect. If someone see you visiting a player who dies the we´re lynching you anyway. check this scummy post from forumite 1) misreads the setup 2) attacks him with a smirk for the claim, which looks scummy as shit 3) takes the visiting thing a step further, saying "if they die" which clears a ton of scum roles... forumite is scum with a role FoS: Forumite Only real issue I have with this is that he didn't misread the setup to my knowledge. The setup was completely ambiguous on the Nosy Neighbor and required a mod to come in and clarify the situation. Aside from that I do get how you made the connections you did although he doesn't neccesarily have a scum role as my understanding of the setup would be mafia choose who makes a night KP given that no mafia can be responsible for more than 1 shot according to that mafia KP change. Thus any "non visiting mafia" would be "cleared" from suspicion. A mafia with a role can both use his action and take a shot. As an example, the mafia Vig can 'visit' and shoot two different players in the same night. I don't follow how the Scum KP mechanics make it unlikely that Forumite (or any potential scum) would NOT have a role, or for example, how a goon who stays home is cleared.
On September 08 2012 16:06 Hopeless1der wrote: Unless someone claims a vig shot on GK, you're supposed to be dead right now. That was worse than Mattchew's claim.
insta-reaction was to throw water on bke's claim, even though he already knew a scum with a role could also deliver a factional kp. Now, I also didn't believe bke's claim, but it's not just that he didn't believe it - he discounted it with a reason that he already knew wasn't airtight.
Not sure how bad of a contradiction that is but I think it is a contradiction.
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@ Austinmcc - I'll be honest, I really don't think Z-Boson is scum for some reason. I really see his interaction with GoodKarma as genuine, and his play this game is different enough from his scum play in Newbie XXIV to make me lean town on him. He was super-lurky in the first few days as scum in that game.
I'll have to look at his filter more if I'm alive tomorrow, but I still think he's town.
@ Toadsstern -
I'm starting to agree based on the post where he declared me and Maverick his top scumreads. He was really eager to jump on the BKE wagon (that I, one of his top scumreads, pushed), and spent most of the day tunneling BKE. He hasn't attempted to follow up on his reads on Maverick or I since that post. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=361826¤tpage=53#1045
His lack of pursuit of Maverick especially bothers me, because he spent most of his early-game tunneling him.
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Just gonna note that right at this point, after his post about his reasoning and BKE and watchers, I am less convinced he's scummy. Something about the way he's responding to pressure and being called scummy + something about him oddly caring/not caring about BKE's lynch + the concern for watchers has changed my mind. I'm now reading him more as third-party assassin than as scum. Could be a momentary thing, I dunno, but that's actually where my head is after those most recent two posts.
Just saying, if you're a non-Z-BosoN assassin, you might want to check him tonight. Wink.
Reading the stuff on forumite, but I swear I can't find syllo's post in obs about him.
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EBWOP: Is there more than "when he is town he is actually useful"? Or is that what you're pointing to?
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On September 10 2012 02:54 austinmcc wrote: can you give a # for syllo's post on Forumite in obs? #232 and #233
No when he is town he is actually useful He's just not useful at all. He's doing apeshit this game sliding by, sometimes agreeing with people, sometimes voting but he isn't doing something himself. He's one of the top #3 vets this game had when we started (I'm not within the top #3!). He should be out here trying to guide town, trying to stop people bullshit, trying to focus town to something he consideres to be a good lynch, he should be trying to take the lead, especially now that BC and Dr.H are dead, especially as I said I'm not going to have much time yesterday and two days ago and said that I'll be away, not making it in time for the deadline.
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On September 10 2012 03:04 austinmcc wrote: EBWOP: Is there more than "when he is town he is actually useful"? Or is that what you're pointing to? yeah there's more but I just realized that was mostly in irc 8(
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On September 10 2012 03:04 austinmcc wrote: EBWOP: Is there more than "when he is town he is actually useful"? Or is that what you're pointing to? Sorry, this was the actual quote from Syllogism, not what I'm boiling down your case to. Was just seeing if this was the syllo comment on Forumite that we were supposed to look at.
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Making notes but will put them in thread so you can see my thought process:
Reading WoF scum QT : + Show Spoiler +Forumite not a scum leader, but seems to be thinking about whether his actions look town or scummy. Choosing targets to go after based on who his town self would go after. Some of not being the scum leader could be the fact that he's scum with Ace, who he and VE probably deferring to. Based off that, I don't expect to be able to look at who Forumite is pushing and say "scummy target," but perhaps the logic will be slightly different/lacking. Unsure whether to expect Forumite to be pushing scum's agenda or not. Reading WoF itself : + Show Spoiler +- Lots of questions. However, not in the scummy "I don't care about the answer, I'm asking to be active/look myself" way, but actually following up with the answers he gets, engaging in dialogue.
- Makes lynch preference on Zentor known, continutes referencing Zentor until deadZentor
- Engages other people's cases, but sticks with just Zentor as his case
- Likes to use his questions to mess with town heads. I see you made a case on x, why would x have done this? Sort of halfway pushing his own options, "I am forumite and I want you to think x did this because of ___" but not explicitly (See the VE/Marv stuff for some of this)
- Often times if directly asks about someone, he's either wishy-washy or gives a cursory read. When asked to contribute views on people he isn't aiming at, doesn't really do so. Pestering him about players he's unconcerned with in his own posts may be a good way to discern alignment.
- At least from WoF, scumForumite doesn't seem to build a massive case based on a filter. Only at the end, on Phagga (althought that was the final lynch, so there's more filter to use). Unsure on townForumite's way of building a case, but his Zentor case sort of just looked at 2/3 of what Zentor did and called it scummy, building and building.
Reading current game : + Show Spoiler +- Lots of questions.
- Questions feel...slightly different? Whereas in WoF I see a lot of picking at other people's cases, here he seems to be agreeing, or asking for more, or something slightly different than just "How do you explain this one bit of your case?"
- Engages Mav, his scumread, but feels different than engaging Zentor in WoF. Some of that could be that Zentor did some very scummy things like selfvote off the bat, but he's not grabbing onto everything Mav posts and twisting it to be scummy like he did with Zentor in WoF.
Thoughts on Toad's case Agree that Forumite has not been involved. Gone most of BKE lynch, no comments on Grush apart from one "he's trolling with that awesome sesame street song and I want to lynch him" bit. No comment on Z-BosoN. However, at points he has commented on random extra stuff - last night's argument and saying he thought it was silly and everyone was town.
Your cautiousness section is weaksauce. You posted a very mushy "Forumite is the vet I feel least confident" post/case-ish-thing, then noted that you disliked the cases others made on forumite, while still liking the forumite = scum conclusion.
End result - I'm not entirely convinced. He doesn't look great. But while I think he's still doing a lot of questioning and not a lot of his own contribution at this point, the questions feel slightly different. I wish he'd give thoughts on other players, but scumForumite in WoF was picking apart a lot of cases that didn't focus his target. Forumite is not doing that here, he's on Maverick but doesn't really keep poking at other people to try and get them off their cases and onto Maverick. Right now I would not vote for him.
However, I'll go read another game or two of his either before day or if I survive. I don't like drawing all my conclusions from (1) a game where he was scum and (2) a mini. Especially for those of us who haven't played with him much, of course he's going to look bad if we only read one scum game and see comments like "Forumite usually helpful" "Forumite usually pushing his reads." I'd like to confirm those thoughts with my own reads of other games.
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There is a lot of "in this game x player played like this" or, "y is a veteran, therefore the following is probable...". While I think these are fine as supporting arguments (since past tendencies/experience are relevant things to consider) I feel like all this talk of veterans and meta play is clouding and overtaking what people have actually said and how people have actually been playing.
It could be a mafia tactic to draw away from the discussion, or it could just be a little too much focus on outside/less relevant factors, but either way I encourage everyone to focus more on filters from this game and less on filters from other games.
Also:
On September 10 2012 02:56 strongandbig wrote:##vote: toad for mayorNo but actually, you bring up a very good point. I played in WoF and Forumite this game does remind me of his play from that game. That said, I think austin's case on z-boson is pretty good as well - he's hedging a lot, and his reasoning around the BKE vote really doesn't make much sense. So toad and austin, since both of you are pretty decent players and regardless of your own alignments are gonna be pretty good at mafia logic, what do you make of each others' cases? One last thing - I don't have all that much time so I was looking through some shorter filters. What do people think of hopeless1der? His filter can be described as - kind of a scummy waffle around the mattchew lynch - tunneling forumite Now, on the one hand I think forumite is a decent scum candidate; but seriously I don't think hopeless has talked about anything else for more than one or two lines. This is a contradiction for me from past games, where hopeless's filter has looked well-thought-out and where it's easy to get a town read on him. Also I feel like there might be a contradiction here: Show nested quote +On September 05 2012 06:18 Hopeless1der wrote:On September 05 2012 06:09 BloodyC0bbler wrote:On September 05 2012 05:57 Bill Murray wrote:On September 04 2012 09:36 Forumite wrote:On September 04 2012 09:12 Mattchew wrote: I am a nosy neighbor. Anyone else with this role should insta-claim as well.
The reason people policy lynch people like BM and Grush is because they get by into later in the game because they are unreadable. This is because they barely actually play the game and if you end up in lylo with one of them left, you've basically already lost. I completely understand anyone wanting to policy lynch them, but we should also not allow them to be off the hook for some sort of scum read during the day.
That being said, I remember thinking to myself that I don't hate BM's play in the last few games I have been in with him. I do not want to policy lynch today.
Why would you claim this? You eliminated yourself as a possible blue from scums list of townies, and it´s not like you doing this eliminates you as a scum suspect. If someone see you visiting a player who dies the we´re lynching you anyway. check this scummy post from forumite 1) misreads the setup 2) attacks him with a smirk for the claim, which looks scummy as shit 3) takes the visiting thing a step further, saying "if they die" which clears a ton of scum roles... forumite is scum with a role FoS: Forumite Only real issue I have with this is that he didn't misread the setup to my knowledge. The setup was completely ambiguous on the Nosy Neighbor and required a mod to come in and clarify the situation. Aside from that I do get how you made the connections you did although he doesn't neccesarily have a scum role as my understanding of the setup would be mafia choose who makes a night KP given that no mafia can be responsible for more than 1 shot according to that mafia KP change. Thus any "non visiting mafia" would be "cleared" from suspicion. A mafia with a role can both use his action and take a shot. As an example, the mafia Vig can 'visit' and shoot two different players in the same night. I don't follow how the Scum KP mechanics make it unlikely that Forumite (or any potential scum) would NOT have a role, or for example, how a goon who stays home is cleared. Show nested quote +On September 08 2012 16:06 Hopeless1der wrote: Unless someone claims a vig shot on GK, you're supposed to be dead right now. That was worse than Mattchew's claim. insta-reaction was to throw water on bke's claim, even though he already knew a scum with a role could also deliver a factional kp. Now, I also didn't believe bke's claim, but it's not just that he didn't believe it - he discounted it with a reason that he already knew wasn't airtight. Not sure how bad of a contradiction that is but I think it is a contradiction.
I do get the feeling (as I implied/made light of earlier) that Hopeless' claim was a little too absolute. I would like to hear a little more of Hopeless so that I can get a bit more of a read on him - especially since his favourite target (forumite) is in the spotlight/sights right now.
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