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United States2186 Posts
On December 31 2008 05:49 Latham wrote: Hell, let's just lynch mike and if he flips blue/green next time lets lynch cobber. K mafia. Has someone checked me yet? Sheesh I'm waiting you slowpokes. | ||
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United States2186 Posts
On December 31 2008 06:04 mikeymoo wrote: Actually scratch that. Vigi BC because he could be VI. I somehow missed the VI role when scanning this game. Why would we risk vigi'ing someone who's a potential mafia when the mafia doc is around? | ||
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United States2186 Posts
I think BC's behavior is bogus and too stupid for someone like him but at the same time lynching him is rather dumb as well. I'm still waiting on people to check me/ace. You guys all asleep? Jack better be using DT powers first day too. Wait can jack possibly be insane? That wasn't made clear earlier. | ||
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We shouldn't be killing either person. | ||
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attackzerg was pretty obviously mafia but I did not see this coming at all. This doesn't clear anybody, but BC is obviously VI and mikeymoo is unconfirmed but not worth lynching. We gotta get the votes off and find a 3rd party cmon people. I have a couple targets in mind will have to see on what kind of responses I get. | ||
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0zc3c is not VI and could be town or mafia who knows. And yes he's a moron and annoying but at the same time comedic relief. Honestly he's the next best target to kill but I don't particularly want to. Our choices are basically: 1) Kill someone useless who is potentially dumb mafia potentially dumb townie. 0zc3c is prime example, but there are others who fit this bill i,e latham who is suspicious just telling everyone to do the work and offering nothing (and recommending stupidly to lynch mm then lynch BC). inertinept is another person who fits this but I'm leaning towards dumb townie here instead of latham. malongo fits as well and while not as obvious as last game (the aborted one) he could very easily be mafia. 2) Take a bigger risk and go with someone bigger who has been acting subtly fishy. I'm not going to post my suspects on this for obvious reasons. 3) Work on jack info. DTs are pointless right now This is unlikely to be useful right now, as I'm pretty sure DTs are staying silent (they only can afford to pm someone if they are come up blue). But one thing to make sure: DTs should be rolechecking day 1/2 and not wasting time on a clue check. That stuff comes in handy later, not now. For now we need several townie groups up asap and everytime a DT messages a blue or a jack finds a non-mafia we can start setting it up. Jacks should be using their dt ability first obviously. As of now it looks like we won't be able to use #3. #2 is risky but potentially valid; I'm not the kind for risks like that though, so I think the safest options are 0zc3c, latham, and malongo, in order of killability. My only reason for keeping 0zc3c around is to laugh at him so I considered putting latham first lol | ||
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On December 31 2008 15:53 ydg wrote: i dunno, if he's VI why would he put so much effort in his posts if he wants to be lynched? as opposed to mikeymoo, who hasn't really put effort in his defense. but that makes him non-mafiaesque. hm.. I will go into a bit of depth on my analysis of BC. Long post read end for summary. Look at RoL last game (the aborted one). He went through excruciating lengths to do it. BC is quite possibly using the train of thought that people wouldn't think that the VI would pull the same stunt twice in a row. It is not his target that falls short on logic. mikeymoo was a jack in 3 and yes he was quite important as one of the main leaders in the town's hidden circle. It actually makes sense because the other dts would be likely to check one of the other more known major players and BC has worked with mikey in mafia 3. I would be very surprised if I haven't been checked actually, but with insane cops its honestly dumb to publically reveal it (coming to this). Only the jack can be certain (I think?? I'm not sure if Caller transferred that over or if he's willing to tell us this time after the Ace/RoL debacle) There are four reasons why BC is VI with almost entire certainty. 1) He's not an idiot (refer back to this in later points). I mean, this isn't 0zc3c. This isn't Folca. BC's actions do not fit with him at all. And they do not make rational sense for being a mafia. 2) His logic SUCKS. Why would a dt put a target on their heads and cause immense chaos for the town (just helps mafia) just on a chance? And why would he be so willing to remove in his opinion a very key player right from the start if he's potentially townie. This is where rebirth's logic fit much better, as he was jack who did not have sanity problems. But BC wanted to kill a key player just on the chance (and we don't know that chance so it's worse) that he was mafia to prove his sanity? lol? We can easily test sanity by inspecting a guy about to die. If BC was dt, he would not be stupid enough to reveal himself this early, instead he would keep the evidence of mikeymoo and wait to prove his insanity. Note that mikeymoo claiming blue is irrelevant. What matters here is BC's motivations. And let me tell you, they aren't pure. 3) The village idiot needs to act on day 1. Remember that village idiot is no longer invincible and therefore needs to act very fast to get himself killed before the mafia can kill him or the town ignores him. What BC is doing fits this task perfectly (his execution is just bad, see point 4). 4) He is being absurdly overaggressive. This is a trait normally formed in people who are desperate for a lynch. This includes a) mafia b) not town. Look at BC's previous game. All the people who were super overzealous about getting someone killed were mafia heh. VI is obviously the most desperate for a lynch (And when we lynch mikeymoo and if he turns up blue then BC will undoubtedly get his wish, just the same as if we lynch BC first). This was the biggest indicator to me of his true role. As time went on he turned more and more aggressive, including Ace in his accusations. This can fit a role of a bad player like Folca, but BC is not a bad player. This does not fit the character. His arguments seem fine for awhile but grow more and more illogical over time. His constant trashtalking of Ace and Mynock just reinforces this. Now through all this, all I have done is proven that BC is not a townie. However, the fact that he must be VI is clear when you factor in point 1. What would BC as mafia hope to gain from this? Get an important member killed? Cause Chaos? Those would be the only two reasons, and frankly they both aren't doing well. Causing chaos could have been a good idea IF Ace was mafia. If you look carefully on page 4, there was a bunch of jokes/half serious statements about RC'ing Ace, then BC posts, then he comes out and starts this chain. Before that, there was no reason to cause chaos to divert attention (as attackzerg was trying to do last game away from Ace with that false roleclaim crap on me), and as Ace is obviously medic, this goes down the drain. Nothing for chaos. And getting an important town member killed in exchange for a mafia is not worth it generally ESPECIALLY if you don't know their role and ESPECIALLY if you don't know if you can even pull it off. Frankly, its moronic. AZ's vote matters *slightly* but I don't want to read too far into this because given the magnitude of his move he undoubtedly realized that his brief history would be checked. And yes he did support BC in the thread but at the same time labled him as the village idiot lol. Basically just trying to cause confusion. However, there is one person who I'm pretty certain is innocent from all this and I'll try to work with them and they can use myself as their mouthpiece if they would like. So what is the conclusion? He wants either a) the town to kill mikeymoo, realize he's town, and then kill BC in revenge, or b) for them to realize the holes in his logic and kill him straight up. Double win for him either way, and with all the commotion he's causing, he's almost guaranteeing that one of the two dies. There is of course option c (what would've happened with rol), where he picked out mikeymoo at random who's actually mafia, we kill mikey first, and now we trust BC lol. I do not want to waste a lynch on BC whatsoever. He's not played it particularly well and I don't want village idiot winning when all he's done is hurt the town and waste time. Unfortunately as it's day 1 and networks haven't been formed we don't have a great many targets and little to go on certainty (I hope DTs aren't inactive like in ace's game that screwed us hard -_- ) . All I can propose is a low risk medium reward scenario of lynching useless people who could mess the town over. Latham is most likely mafia but 0zc3c is far more damaging to the town because he causes too much useless chaos (see BC's game lol). I'm down for either one. The key point is that with lynching BC we gain nothing and he wins when he shouldn't. When we lynch mikeymoo we run the chance that he's mafia, which would be great, but we run a higher chance that's not, which would royally suck since he's been proven to be a good asset to the town. Basically both options suck. Thus, 0zc3c or Latham. They are minimal risk and decent reward. I'm going to go with Latham because even though 0zc3c's rampant garbage posting chaos is a huge help towards the mafia (as we all saw last game lol), 0zc3c has a 'possibility' of being useful and hasn't shown any specific reason to be mafia, whereas Latham definitely hasn't proven to be useful at all and fits potential mafia behavior. I can see good arguments for 0zc3c but in my eyes Latham is higher reward at lower risk. Change your votes to Latham people. Unless of course someone wants to provide a better target. | ||
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I likely will be very busy tomorrow and will have little time to post (hence why I tried to include as much as possible into that one post). I hope that the town can manage to switch off bc/mikeymoo in time and can go into night well. Sorry but a longer term strategy has to wait till I have more time (jan 1st or 2nd u.s time). I hope to be able to live the night, hence why I am coming out in the open from the start in hopes of getting protection since the mafia would likely kill me anyway if I stayed silent. And I hate to see the town go down a wrong path so early, which is the same reason why I jumped in the fray in Ace's game. | ||
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I hate you guys for lynching BC. Why would we lynch someone who is 100% guaranteed to waste the lynch rather than a useless guy who fits several mafia personality characteristics. Looking back I should've just had 0zc3c killed though. I wanted to keep him alive on the small chance that he could be useful (While latham just has been contributing nothing and is more than likely not a blue by behavior so no risk), everyone else wants to kill him anyway lol. Strategy stuff is going to have to wait. I have too little time and am flooded by pms as it is. | ||
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Caller its up to you. I think town has more than a fighting shot because 3 mafia have already died including both suicide bombers and a lot of blues are alive so I don't know why everyone's all without hope. The main/biggest issue is the inactivity, which has killed every single mafia game except 3 where there were restrictions on signups and imbalanced town killed that game instead lol. But either way lets reach a decision so there's no more ambiguity about the game's status. | ||
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!!!! This makes no sense at all lololol | ||
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Let's go over the status of this game: first night the mafia either had inside information or got incredibly lucky nailing 3/5 members of a certain group including our jack. It's highly likely they didn't know everything because the suicide bomber died to camlito's shady dealings, but its also pretty unlikely that they didn't know anything. I'll come back to this in a sec. Second night of the game, the mafia whiffed on every single one of their hits, getting neither priority kills (i,e MM) or blues, and I believe that they were trying to fish for quiet blues (several of those guys barely said a thing) and either suck at targeting or just got unlucky. Either way, they were at the limit of their information on roles. This should assuage some people's fears; if there were any mafia roles in groups besides scara's, we would've seen blue heads rolling, even if it was only one or two a night. We have a couple options on how to proceed: 1. Go back to previous lynch subjects. I do find it odd how we have jumped around on people to kill with great haste. -On day 1, it was a BC vs MM debate. Since then, BC has proven to be VI and MM blue. With no other information I available, I tried to get the town to switch off from a surely pointless lynch on BC or an uncertain lynch on MM to a low risk medium reward one on Latham (had nothing on him besides fitting a common mafia behavior pattern and there was nobody better). Since then Latham went inactive, which doesn't really tell anything because he could either be bored townie or silent mafia. With no further information we should just ignore this, although it was still really stupid to lynch BC/MM. -On day 2, it was originally a duel between Nevake/Lucas. Then 0zc3c presented himself to be lynched for some bizarre reason?? Then there was a clue linked to Heros)Pink. Then RoL took the head of the town and ordered a double lynch on 0zc3c and heros pink. In the end the vote riggers didn't cooperate and only pink died. This is probably for the better though because I thought/think 0zc3c is innocent. -On day 3, there was mass confusion at the start, with chaoser saying to kill mikeymoo because he was silenced while others wanted revenge on 0zc3c, then some wanted to kill lucas from day 2 while others wanted to kill midnightgladius on clues. During this chaos either one vote rigger or both messed with things to get kuja/rebirth killed. GG attackzerg. So far on our lynches we've hit 1 VI and 3 townies, while on vigi kills we hit 1 mafia and 1 townie. These are the people who were considered at one point or another that are still alive: -MM. On the assumption that he had been converted. Bad idea unless a DT confirms it, as he's too valuable to lose just on that 'assumption.' -0zc3c. I think he's green and I think that we shouldn't waste anymore lynches based on killing off useless people who just create chaos (i,e kuja, bc, and heros pink). -Nevake/Lucas. They are tied together. Either a) one is mafia or b) neither is mafia, but if we go through with killing one we need to kill the other assuming the first comes up innocent. I would like to hear what each of them thinks about the revised situation now. I don't want this to just be passed under the carpet because it was glossed over last time before we reached a conclusion. I have my thoughts but I'll wait until the day post to say anything more. -Another list/point brought up by Mikey: + Show Spoiler + On January 03 2009 13:13 mikeymoo wrote: Another PM, could be same guy, could be different. "Here is a list imo of potential mafia based purely off posting behavior. Latham Inertinept Night]Mare Showtime! More_Minerals Kuja900 They either say a ton of nonsense (quite irritating), don't offer clue analysis, or haven't posted recently." Heros)Pink, is the guy PMing me is mafia and the clue is wrong, then he dies too. Easy as that. You just shrug off/get angry at any accusation. Maybe you've just got a short fuse, but I personally like the clue. -My name was mentioned also by Lucas and Rebirth independently. I don't know why rebirth wants to kill me but Lucas's suspicion is based off of a false logic pattern + me being afk and not replying back to something till now. -I can conjure some stuff up behavior wise when I do my clue analysis, but overall there is very little evidence to go off here; the town has been way too passive in getting public information and its almost too little too late for that anymore with everyone inactive now. 2. Try to figure out the conversion target and take that out. The conversion damage depends on the target. Getting someone like Mikeymoo is an immediate payoff, where the mafia essentially sacrifice their conversion target to gain a ton of role info as he can be easily found out. On the opposite end of the spectrum, if they get someone like me who knows no roles, they need to have me kept alive and are converting based on long term value. Frankly I would not be surprised at all if I was converted tonight. My inactivity may have done some measure but why else would I be kept alive this long? There should be 2 DTs and I assume they have an RC left (I hope so). Given the number of mislynches and lack of information (i,e 'this guy showed up as green/red but the dt doesn't know his sanity'), either mikey has all the info and will reveal upon being unsilenced assuming he lives, or DTs have a check left. This is crucial in preventing say a mislynch of mikey. TBH I only think there are a few good targets for them to convert and some of them might not be feasible due to possible medics etc. That said, for whoever is behind the scenes, you must be more familiar with who is likelier to be converted than I, and it is more likely in PM's where these subtle changes in behavior are shown. Almost all my contacts are dead so I'm totally left out of the loop here and can't really say anything more specific. I'll do some clue analysis tomorow. Hopefully by then we'll have some more information to work with. But I do think that if we don't go with option two we do need to rely on clues more than I'd like. So far we are between 1/2-1/5 on clue based killings (I don't know what evidence the people who caused the deaths of kuja/rol/clazz had on them besides kuja acting dumb and a ton of people pm'ing me about clazz which I missed). Either way things look tough, but as long as we don't let ourselves keep getting sidetracked on all these random escapades that happen everyday we can work through this. And for those despairing about next game or whatever, don't worry about it. I already have a system in place to prevent inactivity and we will be working together to figure out optimal balance before the game starts. It will likely be a much smaller game and yes it will be active because there will be systems in place to ensure that. | ||
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On January 08 2009 07:30 Caller wrote: gee thanks, this makes me want to be productive T_T if nobody is having fun with the game I'll just end it. I think the dead are more active than the living :/ | ||
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There are good reasons to suspect me but clues are not one of them. I had to make a long pm so no analysis till I wake up. And wow@amber's retardedness. What happened to us using zombie kills on sure mafia? | ||
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modkill rage lynch randombum?? or just end this game lol. I no longer have any spirit left with so many inactive and just random stuff being thrown around. | ||
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On January 16 2009 12:58 ydg wrote: yeah, game was over a long time ago "From: malongo Subject: mafia Date: 1/15/09 12:26 hi i doubt your mafia but you can still be. Anyways if your townie change your vote asap to shadowdragon i was rolechecked and im working with a dt and a paramedic, your vote will show if the game is over or not." hi mafia, probably smooth criminal Malongo is innocent vet lol The DT and medic are ours though ^_^ Anyone wanna guess mafia MVP? (definitely not me I was super bad/lazy) | ||
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We have: interintept- DT Malongo- Vet MG- Vet Nevake- Zombie Did you actually stack meth dealers/zombies or were there only 2 of each? (Btw game was already over at this point no matter who was lynched it was 8 mafia vs 16 townies) | ||
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On January 16 2009 13:05 LucasWoJ wrote: And I knew Ver was mafia from the "I'm green!" and the PM in which he claimed my logic was flawed. Clearly though, there was no flaw SUPPOSING IF he were mafia.  My guess is infundumbulum was converted. Hey my logic was correct. I think I was still townie at the first round of pms? HOWEVER there is the very undeniable fact that if I'm alive this long I'm either mafia or going to be converted lol. Every dead/obsing person was messaging me 'why aren't you dead yet?' So yes I should've been killed a long time ago. | ||
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I thought mikeymoo made this up when he was faking vet? edit: Caller can you post role actions? I'm curious to see what laxercannon did. | ||
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