WCS Korea Season II

Ro16 - Day Three Preview
Day Three of Six

Brackets and standings on Liquipedia

VODs on Twitch

by CosmicSpiral and stuchiu


The first week of the Ro16 is in the books with all the players having played a series a piece. Now we head into the second out of three weeks, where we may very well see the first quarter-finalists confirmed. Of course, we could also just see things stay dead even, nudging us toward the inevitable quadruple-tiebreakers the OSL is famous for.

Group A
1.	Soulkey	1 - 0
1.	soO	1 - 0
3.	PartinG	0 - 1
3.	Symbol	0 - 1

Group B
1.	Bomber	1 - 0
1.	INnoVation	1 - 0
3.	Flash	0 - 1
3.	Bbyong	0 - 1

Group C
1.	First	1 - 0
1.	Rain	1 - 0
3.	FanTaSy	0 - 1
3.	hyvaa	0 - 1

Group D
1.	SuperNova	1 - 0
1.	Maru	1 - 0
3.	Trap	0 - 1
3.	KangHo	0 - 1

Woongjin_Soulkey vs. SKT_soO
by stuchiu

Two months ago, five players were fighting for the right to become the next Zerg King: Soulkey, RorO, Leenock, Life and Symbol. It was a fierce fight as all five had a claim to the throne. Soulkey was the strongest player without a big tournament result. Roro had won the last WoL GSL. Leenock had won Dreamhack. Life won the first HotS MLG. Symbol was the most consistent one, getting a high placement in nearly every tournament he participated in.

Now, it's clear that Soulkey is by far the best. He's the GSL champion, a top four finisher at the WCS Season Finals, and the ace of the best team in the Proleague. As if to drive the point home, Soulkey has made it to the OSL Ro16 while Life, Leenock, and RorO were eliminated in the first round. While Symbol did continue his trend of consistent performances by making it to the Ro16, Soulkey still put him in his place by destroying him last week in the Ro16 opener. While the games looked close during the early and middle phases, you could see the difference in skill between the players in the game deciding moments. Soulkey's timings and defensive micro were immaculate, and Symbol had to GG out when his two aggressive timings failed.

As the new King of Zerg, Soulkey will be looking towards the elimination rounds as no one in his group can challenge him. Symbol has already lost. Parting has no soul left in his engine. And soO?

Soo may be a solid zerg, but that’s it. He is barely used by SKT in proleague. He seems to have an affinity for individual leagues as he made it through the the KeSPA qualifier into MLG Anaheim, and made it into Code S last season after starting at the bottom. However, he got middling results in both tournaments with a top 12 at MLG and top 16 in the GSL. SoO is a very technically sound player, but he has yet to show any particular flair. He doesn't have exceptionally strong mechanics, game understanding, precise micro or fortitude in dire situations. There is something Soo is missing before he can reach the next level, and until he can find out what it is, I can’t help but feel that the Ro16 is the farthest he will go.

Prediction: Soulkey 2 - 0 Soo


CJ_Bbyong vs. STX_INnoVation
by stuchiu

This could be the biggest mismatch in the entire ro16. The first difference is in pedigree. INnoVation is the strongest Terran in the world and has won the WCS Season Finals, placed 2nd in Code S, and led STX Soul to a playoff spot as their ace. Bbyong is a fringe Code S player who has gone 0 - 2 for CJ in Proleague this month. While Bbyong may inherit a legacy, it won't be the most venerable one. Founded by Ensnare and succeeded by Virus, Bbyong is in danger of becoming the heir to the line of Code S clinging Terrans. While his run in this tournament has been his best so far, he is still down a series in his group after losing to Bomber, with Innovation and Flash waiting to execute him.

The second difference, even larger than the first, is skill. TvT has now become a Hellbat vs. Hellbat war, and while it looks random, generally speaking the player with better multitasking and crisper macro generally gets the advantage as they can simply do more things. It's the perfect matchup for Innovation as there is no Terran with better multitasking macro and tempo control. This was on full display when Innovation crushed Bbyong in the Ro32, with his hellbat drops making short work of his opponent's economy while he defended with relative ease back at home. And while the firepower of Hellbats give the illusion of a snowball’s chance in hell for Bbyong if he could somehow catch INnovation off guard, you then remember how Innovation already dismembered Flash in the fastest Ro16 series in the OSL thus far.

Still, Bbyong is a part of the Ensnare-Virus line. And besides being known for magically making their way back to Code S season after season, they were also known for elevating their games against the best opponents, and making sure they fought hard regardless of victory or defeat. Bbyong has already shown some shades of this in his series against Bomber. As long as Bbyong can survive longer than Flash did he, should at least give us a fun series to watch, even if he doesn't win.

Prediction: Innovation 2 - 0 Bbyong


LG-IM_First vs. SKT_Rain
by CosmicSpiral

Think about this for a moment: Anyppi is going to play Rain in a televised Bo3 match and he has a pretty decent shot at winning. Yes, the guy who couldn’t win a Proleague or MBC Survivor game for almost two years might just upset one of the best Protoss players of this generation.

One of the beautiful things about competitive SC2 is how it can revitalize a player’s career. The Korean scene was largely built upon BW players who decided that the new game had enough opportunity to risk leaving an established, sponsored team. Mvp, Nestea, MC, Losira, JulyZerg, MarineKing, etc. are considered legends now but they used to be much less: some were long-time B-teamers who couldn’t break into the A-team, others were washed-up veterans far past their glory days, and others still were interesting prospects who had yet to fulfil their potential (well, just Mvp).

First is one of the first category, a former KT Rolster player who had performed admirably in Dream League but could never show anything noteworthy beyond that. In fact he only won one game on the professional level, a PvZ against Saint during 2009-2010 Shinhan Bank Proleague. And like his brethren SC2 took him places that he couldn't possible have imagined when he played Brood War. He took top 4 at MLG Summer Arena and Summer Championship last year, won IEM Katowice while finishing second at IEM World Championship this year, and currently he is playing like a man possessed. I suspect every time First walks into that booth it’s like entering a blissful (and strenuous) dream. Once upon a time he ground out countless training hours just for the chance to enter this illustrious tournament—now he may be the ultimate dark horse to take the trophy home.

Rain may sympathize but he has some dreams of his own. Beating hyvaa last week was one of many steps he must take if he wants to repeat as OSL champion, a title being challenged by the likes of Soulkey, Flash and Innovation. He has been relatively quiet in HotS so far, falling out of Code S early in both GSL seasons. But now there are several signs that Rain is gearing up for another strong tournament run. He's still SKT's rock solid ace, and he has found recent stability in PvZ and PvT while showing excellent play during the Ro32 group stage. Based on pedigree alone Rain should be the favorite to win except… well, Rain hasn’t exactly looked indomitable in PvP lately. Not that’s much of a surprise considering that the matchup has been his Achilles’ heel since WoL. Statistically PvP has always been Rain’s weakest matchup and while he managed to win the majority of his BoX series, he has been prone to small losing streaks just like the rut he is currently in at the moment. Losing the last 4 out of 5 PvP games wouldn’t be worrisome if there was a long break between tournaments but for Rain, it might be a psychological hindrance.

Records are of little help in predicting this matchup. First has only played 8 PvP games so far but has won 7 of them, yet his opponents have not been noteworthy with the exceptions of Hurricane in Challenger League and Creator in GSTL. Rain is at a healthy 17-11 but again, he has lost his most recent games and no one can really read into that too closely. Maybe it carries over to the sieres, maybe it's exclusive to SPL and Rain plays fine tonight. Rain still runs strong in traditional BoX series with a 4-1 HotS record, only losing to Stats in the recent KeSPA qualifier for MLG Spring. This match should be very close as First’s harassment and multitasking can be stifled by Rain’s patience and expert positioning. However I think First will edge him out by the slimmest of margins. Very biased of me to say so but who doesn’t love a good underdog story?

Prediction: First 2 - 1 Rain


STX_Trap vs. LG-IM_KangHo
by CosmicSpiral

Meanwhile, KangHo and Trap are left to fight to keep their chances of survival alive. Both are current 0 - 1, and no one wants to be 0 - 2 as they head into week three. 1 - 1 gives you hope of advancing on your own merits, while 0 - 2 means you're either eliminated or left praying that the other games of the group will play out in a way that gives you a rematch.

Trap is currently a specialist, the type of player who excels in one matchup and one alone. Unfortunately for KangHo it turns out that Trap just had to be really really really good at PvZ. It’s the type of good that turns your overall W/L ratio from 50% to 64% and makes you STX’s premier sniper against Zerg. The funny thing is that his PvZ style is not that much different from his PvT and PvP. It’s just better in some mysterious, incalculable sense that only InCa or Light could appreciate. He executes his all-ins better, transitions out of failed ones better, harasses better, controls his army more fluidly, and can play a macro game if he thinks it will work. To be honest it’s slightly creepy how well Trap understands the mindgames in this matchup. Even if his opponent knows Trap is doing an all-in and scouts it perfectly, Trap laughs at his futility of the struggle and convincingly kills him.

KangHo’s ZvP crisis continues to manifest in odd and troubling ways. Being 5-9 in HotS is already a downer but his recent losses and wins betray a fundamental lack of confidence. He at least tried to play straight-up macro games during the WCS finals where his macro prowess and multitasking shone; it was the decisions with his army that eventually cost him the series against Alicia. But recently Losira has elected for risky maneuvers to seize an advantage as quickly as possible. Against Madbull he tried to overwhelm him with a misguided 2 base swarm host + nydus worm strategy that ended up a complete failure; the same strategy failed against JangBi in their initial Ro32 game. Now in their second game KangHo finally managed to reap the benefits of his hatchery block but one has to question its long-term potential. How many times can KangHo rely on such strategies before people just elect to play safe and prepared against those shenanigans?

At face value this is simply a mismatch of styles and expertise. Trap knows what he wants to accomplish in PvZ and has effortlessly wiped out the likes of Symbol, Curious, and Sniper. KangHo is still looking for the answer that will give him some sort of stability and so far he hasn’t found it. He doesn’t seem to have a strong approach to the ZvP matchup or the necessary flexibility to exploit any perceived predictability. Anything could happen though. Maybe KangHo did find his panacea and will run Trap over on his way to a 4-0 win over Innovation in the finals. Ehhhhhh, maybe not.

Prediction: Trap 2 - 0 KangHo