WCS Korea Season II

Ro16 - Day One Preview
OSL goes best of three

Brackets and standings on Liquipedia

VODs on Twitch

by CosmicSpiral and Pigscanfly


The Ro32 is over, and now we move onto what some would call the 'proper' OnGameNet Starleague. The OSL started over a decade ago as a sixteen-man tournament, and even as it has tried a variety of minor tweaks such as an expansion to 36 players, the real meat of the touranment has always been the Ro16 and above. That's when the sick intro videos are unveiled, the casters start putting some weight behind their belows, and the fans start showing up in earnest.

Even fans who don't care about the OSL tradition can be happy for a different reason: the format has switched from best-of-one into best-of-three, round robin groups. Here are your contenders:

Group A
–	Soulkey	0 - 0
–	Symbol	0 - 0
–	soO	0 - 0
–	PartinG	0 - 0

Group B
–	Bomber	0 - 0
–	Bbyong	0 - 0
–	Flash	0 - 0
–	INnoVation	0 - 0

Group C
–	First	0 - 0
–	FanTaSy	0 - 0
–	Rain	0 - 0
–	hyvaa	0 - 0

Group D
–	Maru	0 - 0
–	Trap	0 - 0
–	SuperNova	0 - 0
–	KangHo	0 - 0

And now, our day one preview!

Group A: Woongjin_Soulkey vs. Azubu.Symbol
- by CosmicSpiral

The transition from WoL to HotS injected a much needed dose of liveliness into the Zerg vs. Anything strategic landscape, which had degraded into a ‘sit back and come hither into my broodlords’ mindset. Now that the broodlord/infestor deathball will lose to other deathballs, Zerg players have been forced to be more dynamic and actively seek out weaknesses in their opponent’s positioning and defenses…except in ZvZ.

Initially HotS zerg looked like an ugly child’s painting of Brood War ZvZ except it had twice as many mutalisks and foreigners were beating Koreans left and right. Luckily Blizzard kept an open ear to this problem and addressed it with a change to spore crawler damage. Now with the new spore crawlers we’re back to the endlessly creative world of roach/hydra/infestor (featuring swarm host transitions!), which means you could be tempted to turn off your computer and go to sleep because we all know what’s going to happen.

And yet, the caliber of competition here says these matches are worth your time. Unsurprising the current forerunner for best Zerg boasts one of the best records in the mirror matchup: Soulkey has a 80% winrate and has only dropped three games in all of HotS. He has not proven to be an especially stylistic player (although he hasn’t abandoned the mutalisk midgame like many of his brethren) as much as a fundamentally good decision maker. Soulkey excels in this matchup because he knows and executes the textbook response to any situation: tech switch to punish overcommitment to a particular composition, small ambushes to punish bad army positioning, hard droning when he cannot be attacked. He offers few openings and gives you few chances to fight a battle on your terms.

Yet despite all my praise towards Soulkey, Symbol stands a great chance at causing an upset. Not much has changed for our honorary Kong member in terms of overall strategy. 90% of his games will reach lair tech and he’ll mostly play passive while focusing on upgrades and building a big ol’ ball of death to steamroll his opponent. However, the spore crawler patch has discouraged the fast 2 base mutalisk build that is his greatest weakness. The increasingly common swarm host transition out of roach/hydra/infestor is even better as it emphasizes positioning and patience, qualities that Symbol pushed to an insufferable limit in his WoL ZvT and ZvP. Additionally, late game ZvZ is where Nydus Worms can really shine, and Symbol is known to be a master of the underground network. If Soulkey plays for the long haul he goes into the part of the game where Symbol is most comfortable and at that point, it might as well be a coin flip.

Prediction: Soulkey 2 - 1 Symbol



Group B: ST_Bomber vs. CJ_Bbyong
- by Pigscanfly

While another seemingly more beautiful, more eye catching, more high-level TvT takes place in group B's other other game (Flash vs. INnoVation), the more fascinating and intricate contest will actually take place in this game. The eternal question that has burned in our hearts since the start of WoL continues to captivate us and will once again turn on a knife’s edge: When will Bomber decide to disappoint us?

"Bomber's Law: Bomber will always disappoint.

Corollary to Bomber's Law: If Bomber does not disappoint, it will be in order to set up a bigger disappointment later."

Yes, I really am going to quote this every time I get assigned a preview about ST_Bomber . This is because Bomber is Bomber, doomed to be hyped up to win many a major tournament but fated to never win it. Also, Bomber has broken my heart too many times, yet like a moth to the flame I keep getting drawn to him, only to have my heart broken yet again. Despite my grumblings, Bomber performed exactly as expected in the Ro32 – beating Hurricane and Keen but losing to Rain. One part of me thinks that the Corollary to Bomber’s Law is still in force and he will sweep through Bbyong with a dominating performance, only to get completely and utterly crushed by Flash and INnoVation. However, this still small voice in my mind insists that he’s going to disappoint now – when he is probably the favourite against Bbyong, who made it out of a relatively weak group and hasn’t looked particularly impressive overall in HotS.

This is not to say that CJ Bbyong is a pushover. Bbyong has handled the transition to HotS fairly well, beating the likes of Leenock, Maru and JangBi while losing to Rain, INnoVation and Soulkey. That begs the question – is Bbyong just another average KeSPA Terran or does he have what it takes to play with the big boys? If it is to be the latter, he has to defeat another just-above-average Terran in Bomber to have a hope of beating either Flash or INnoVation in his next game. Then again, if he loses, he will still have to play against one of them anyway. Which is kind of why (in my humble opinion and with no disrespect meant to either of these players) this match doesn’t really matter. Both the winner and the loser will eventually get crushed by Elephantine might of two of the top 5 players in the world, rendering this match moot.

Having gotten that little ode to greatness out of the way, I do think Bomber is the favorite in the match. However, as mentioned earlier, Bomber will disappoint. Thus, in continuing with the Elephantine and over hyping the best players in the world themes, Bbyong will take this game, consigning the lone ESF player to last in his group, only to be viciously trampled to death himself by the Alpha Male Elephants, Flash and INnoVation

Prediction: Bbyong 2 - 1 Bomber, with Bomber taking game 1 in dominating fashion, coming within seconds of winning in game 2, only to throw it all away in some ludicrous fashion.


Group C: LG-IM_First vs. SKT_FanTaSy
- by Pigscanfly

2013 has been a breakout year for LG-IM First . When you look at First’s international tournament record, even from back in his WoL days, you wonder why only LG-IM teammates and StarCraft hipsters rate him highly. He finished in 3rd/4th place in last year’s MLG Summer Arena, 2nd in last year’s MLG Summer Championship, 1st place in the first major tournament of 2013 in IEM Katowice, and finished in 2nd place behind his team mate Yoda in the LG-IEM World Championship. Four podium finishes in six foreign tournaments is a pretty darn good record.

Yet, First has always choked in Korea, failing to make it into Code S in his last 7 attempts. This is particularly surprising as he was able to beat then Code S participants like Taeja, Losira, Violet and HerO when he met them at foreign tournaments. With this in mind, it is perhaps unsurprising that First managed to emerge in pole position from a Ro32 group containing Zerg powerhouses RorO and Leenock. First has a monstrous HotS record of 20 - 7, with a 74.07% winrate.

First's opponent on the night will be SKT_Fantasy. The Crown Prince has not done as well in HotS as many people predicted he might, with the addition of Speed Boost and Widow Mines not benefiting his multi-tasking style as much as it should. Still, Fantasy qualified from a tough group containing both JangBi and Life, and has a decent 12 - 9 record in proleague. Although Fantasy scored an important win over his old rival JangBi in the previous round, it’s always hard to tell much about the state of his TvP from a single game in which Fantasy had an early lead from killing 14 probes with drops and hellion runbys.

Fantasy watch, or signs of Fantasy being Fantasy:

1. Fantasy living up to his nickname of the Terrorist with impeccable Widow Mine usage against Flash in proleague. Maybe this will be the start of something beautiful.
   
2. Fantasy floating 1200 minerals and 800 gas against Life in his Ro32 match.
   
3. No particular Fantasy GG timing incidents to report on, though Keen did his best impression of Fantasy in his Ro32 loss to Bomber.

This match will be a close one. Both players are rapidly improving and have made it to the Ro16 for the first time in their SC2 careers. First has been extremely dominant in HotS and has had the results to back it up, while Fantasy has been posting good if not mind-blowing results in Proleague.

Despite this, something makes me think Fantasy will win. He definitely has the pedigree from his BW days and has been slowly improving, despite his propensity to have his sick micro countered by sickly macro, floating an obscene amount of minerals and gas. Fantasy also has fantastic practice partners in Parting, Rain and Bisu and I think that might just give him the edge in what should be a really close series.

Prediction: Fantasy 2 - 1 First


Group D: Azubu.SuperNova vs. LG-IM_KangHo
- by CosmicSpiral

One of the most interesting match-ups of the night features two of WoL's early success stories who have undergone unique renaissances in Heart of the Swarm. Overall Wings of Liberty was a disappointment in terms of what these two players were supposed to accomplish after they showed great promise early on. When they debuted in GSL March 2011, they looked like the two players who would be the top representatives of their race. Unfortunately their stars burned out after GSL August and with some notable exceptions (Campus Party Europe, Arena of Legends), SuperNova and KangHo never become constant threats in individual tournaments. While they haven’t overcome the deficiencies that stopped them before, HotS has given them the opportunities to focus on their strengths and both players have found great success in doing so.

Ever since the last WCS Korea, Kangho has been a thorn in the Korean hierarchy (and in my Liquibets, oy). Few people talk about him as a top Korean player and even less regard him as a championship contender. But it’s impossible to deny that he has accomplished than most of his peers: top 6 in WCS Korea and top 16 at the WCS Season Finals are nothing to scoff at. In particular KangHo has performed well in ZvT, beating the likes of Bomber, Gumiho and Ryung in WCS. He definitely doesn’t have the cleanest or the most efficient playstyle, but he might have the scrappiest one. If KangHo can win this series then he would be a definite sleeper to make top 8 and possibly top 4.

Meanwhile our second AZUBU player tonight is currently playing the best games of his career. Supernova, San and Symbol have been the biggest performers on our cheerfully shady addition to the GSTL, functioning as a veritable Cerberus that can win in both team and individual leagues. Supernova in particular has shaken off any lingering doubts about whether he could be a Code S / Starleague class player again. After losing his first HotS game to Byun in the GSTL he went on an 11 game winning streak and never looked back; so far he has only lost one series online to SortOf in the RSL. Supernova’s games show his eagerness to push all the new advantages of terran to their limit, whether it is dropping in 4 places at once or punishing fast spire with strong midgame timings pushes. In particular he has pioneered midgame marauder/hellbat pressure in TvZ while taking advantage of the low overall gas investment to stay even with the Zerg on upgrades. Whether KangHo can hold these pushes without taking crucial damage will probably be the turning point of the series.

Prediction: SuperNoVa 2 - 1 KangHo