EPTAligulac.com is an ongoing statistical project and website in development started in December 2012. It offers a comprehensive database of games from the pro and semipro SC2 scene, as well as a unique rating system aimed at rating players and teams, and predicting games.
The FAQ might be able to answer your questions. If not, I'll be keeping an eye on this thread so you can ask away here.
Also, before we start, I want to quote Heartland from one of my previous threads who had this to share, better put into words than I ever could.
On February 03 2013 02:50 Heartland wrote:
I think what's cool and great about this work is that it does what statistics are good for. They give you the ability to create data and then to look at it critically. But maybe people in this thread confuse statistics with the Truth with a capital p (sic). That's not the way you should read statistics, whether in the morning paper or on TL. Rather statistics can make us think about deeper connections that we haven't seen before, twist and turn around concepts and play with them through statistical models. They're not meant to say "Scarlett should be in Code S." Obviously there are flaws or issues with these stats, but it's common for statistics everywhere. What you can do with that is to add or change some modifier, let it meet other forms of reasoning or to extrapolate on what we take for granted.
So yeah, tl;dr, lies, damn lies and statistics are the case with all stats but it's not the point of stats.
I think what's cool and great about this work is that it does what statistics are good for. They give you the ability to create data and then to look at it critically. But maybe people in this thread confuse statistics with the Truth with a capital p (sic). That's not the way you should read statistics, whether in the morning paper or on TL. Rather statistics can make us think about deeper connections that we haven't seen before, twist and turn around concepts and play with them through statistical models. They're not meant to say "Scarlett should be in Code S." Obviously there are flaws or issues with these stats, but it's common for statistics everywhere. What you can do with that is to add or change some modifier, let it meet other forms of reasoning or to extrapolate on what we take for granted.
So yeah, tl;dr, lies, damn lies and statistics are the case with all stats but it's not the point of stats.
So, let's get on with the news.
Ratings bug
Aside from a lot of minor improvements, two significant things have happened. On Monday I got an e-mail from a certain Zomia, who had lots of constructive feedback to the site.
You see, I initially envisioned this site to be about ratings, but now it's more of a TLPD-like thing, which is to say it's a database of results, and most of the development lately has been related to that. But Zomia convinced me to go back and look at the rating system once more, and lo and behold, there was a bug.
Strictly speaking, the bug was not in the rating system, but in the code that I used analyze it and pick parameters. Until now I have basically been basing these numbers off of flawed information. No longer! As it turns out this is for everyone's benefit, because it allowed me to tweak the system to be more conservative (which a lot of people have been wanting), while giving it the predictive power that I thought it had, and which it now actually has.
+ Show Spoiler [Proof] +
![[image loading]](http://aligulac.com:81/al/predict.png)
This graph plots all 114k+ games, categorizing them by predicted winrate for the presumed strongest player on the horizontal axis, and actual winrate for same on the vertical axis. That's the thick black line. The blue line shows a weighted linear fit, while the red line is the ideal that we want. The system tends to slightly overestimate the strength of the strongest player up to a game winrate of 80%. From then on the overestimation might be significant. (Note that this is game winrate, not Bo3 or Bo5 winrate, which is higher.)
Hopefully this can convince everyone that it's working just fine now.
The upshot of this is that the rating list looks much more sensible, as does the Hall of Fame (which I've changed a bit how it works), which is now topped by people like MC, MKP and Mvp.
So to those of you who have been critiquing me, I owe you an apology.
Add results! Now easy even for grandma
Now, to the results database. We have 114 thousand games. That's about twice the size of sc2charts.net and about a third more than TLPD has, which makes us the most complete publically available pro/semipro SC2 database in the world (Blizzard's internal database is neither). Which is fine by me, I don't much care for sc2charts.net, and while TLPD is great the international database is not kept up to date very well any more.
Yet, I don't blame them. Creating this database with little more than just four people pulling the cart, I've learned that this shit's hard.
That is why we have opened for everyone to submit results. You can do that here: http://aligulac.com/add/
Publically submitted results will be subject to review by us before becoming visible. If you are interested, you can still PM me and get an admin account, which will allow you to:
- submit results directly without all the review bother.
- change, create and delete players, teams, matches...
- review other people's submitted results.
- sort matches into our events catalogue, which is still missing about 40% of the database.
- mark the offline games as offline (some people wanted a separate rating for offline games, but that can't happen until this sorting is done).
- bug me for feature requests (priority given to helpers).
- just about anything else you can think of.
(Kinda joking, but also kinda not.)
Thanks to the unknown guy out there who submitted IPTL this morning, and thus unknowingly became the first to use this system. (No idea who you are...)
Now, as usual the ratings have been updated to the latest two-week period. This one includes results from the two first days of GSL Code A and the preliminaries, most of GSL Code S Ro32, Proleague, IPL qualifiers, IPTL, Iron Squid finals, a handful of go4sc2s and ZOTACs and a bunch of other tournaments.
Zerg is still ahead in the top of the ladder, but this time it's Terran who is lagging behind, and not (as is usually the case) Protoss.
(I'm a little bit earlier this time so the list can be out in time for the GSL Ro16.)
Current top 10
-
Life 2256 (+4 after Iron Squid) -
PartinG 2239 (+15 after Code S Ro32, MLG quals and FXO inv. playoffs) - Leenock 2235 (no change after FXO Inv. playoffs)
-
Bomber 2233 (+12 after Code S Ro32) - Rain 2211 (-9 after Proleague and Code A prelims)
- DongRaeGu 2203 (+41 after IPL intl. regionals, Iron Squid, and Code S Ro32)
- TaeJa 2194 (-1 after Code S Ro32 and a delayed game from IPL intl. regional)
- RorO 2179 (+93 after Proleague, Code S Ro32 and MLG quals)
- Scarlett 2137 (no games)
- viOLet 2132 (no games)
Foreigner top 10
- Scarlett 2137
- Stephano 2015
- VortiX 2014
- Snute 1973
- LucifroN 1947
- Sen 1909
- Kas 1886
- Fraer 1869
- TitaN 1868
- Nerchio 1826
Top 10 teams
- MVP 91.44%
- StarTale 91.11%
- SK Telecom T1 91.04%
- Incredible Miracle 90.14%
- AZUBU 89.08%
- Team Liquid 88.75%
- Prime 86.25%
- FXOpen e-Sports Korea 85.96%
- STX SouL 84.76%
- Evil Geniuses 84.44%
The proleague rank looks like this:
- SK Telecom T1 79.26%
- MVP 78.80%
- Incredible Miracle 74.91%
- AZUBU 74.71%
- StarTale 72.00%
- STX SouL 67.12%
- Team Liquid 66.52%
- Prime 62.50%
- Evil Geniuses 61.92%
- FXOpen e-Sports Korea 60.87%
(Note team ranks are based on player ratings and rosters, not actual team matches.)
Thanks
To my team of trusted helpers: Conti, kiekaboe, Grovbolle, PhoenixVoid, Inflicted_ (new) and scisyhp (new). This project would never have been possible without you.
This week particularly to Zomia whose feedback led me to reconsider a few things.
Also to my academic advisor whose timely conference trip abroad allowed me the free time to waste.
Bonus
If you haven't seen the player connectivity graph yet you need to check it out. It's the kind of thing that makes this work truly worth it, I feel. http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=396566
+ Show Spoiler [Awesomeness inside] +
![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/GdLFvQW.jpg)
