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Aligulac Feb 6 Update: Oops - Page 2

Forum Index > SC2 General
Post a Reply
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_Puppies
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
24 Posts
February 07 2013 03:10 GMT
#21
On February 07 2013 10:07 Day[9] wrote:
Aligulac is very nearly Caligula backwards. At least they anagram.

Text Twist Power!
Canucklehead
Profile Joined March 2011
Canada5074 Posts
February 07 2013 03:12 GMT
#22
Ok boys, someone put this to the test and start betting for a month, then report on your winnings!

http://www.pinnaclesports.com/League/E Sports/SC2 GSL/1/Lines.aspx
Top 10 favourite pros: MKP, MVP, MC, Nestea, DRG, Jaedong, Flash, Life, Creator, Leenock
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3805 Posts
February 07 2013 07:25 GMT
#23
It makes no sense for me to do a write-up on the kespa pros since a shit ton of old matches were added, meaning that everyones ranking changed so it's hard to compare between period 76 and 77.
Will do it for the next ranking. I feel like quoting my own skype log with TheBB because I said the whole "aligulac is like caligula" first :D
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
StarGalaxy
Profile Joined March 2011
Germany744 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-02-07 12:30:19
February 07 2013 12:28 GMT
#24
One of my favourite sc2 releated sites.

poor socke he lost the position as the best foreigner protoss. He isn't even in the top 10 Eu toss right now.
I guess he needs some more consistency to get up there again with the new ranking.^^
Cj hero | Zest
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3805 Posts
February 07 2013 12:34 GMT
#25
On February 07 2013 21:28 StarGalaxy wrote:
One of my favourite sc2 releated sites.

poor socke he lost the position as the best foreigner protoss. He isn't even in the top 10 Eu toss right now.
I guess he needs some more consistency to get up there again with the new ranking.^^


Consistency and lots of matches will boost him
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
WigglingSquid
Profile Joined August 2011
5194 Posts
February 07 2013 12:41 GMT
#26
We're just waiting for your "Quality Poster" star, that's all.
JustPassingBy
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
10776 Posts
February 07 2013 12:41 GMT
#27
Only 5 terrans in the top 40 non-Koreans now... ;;
Is there a reason why Demulsim does not show up in the non-Korean rankings, btw?
Targe
Profile Blog Joined February 2012
United Kingdom14103 Posts
February 07 2013 12:44 GMT
#28
Awesome as usual BB!
11/5/14 CATACLYSM | The South West's worst Falco main
Conti
Profile Joined November 2010
Germany2516 Posts
February 07 2013 12:51 GMT
#29
On February 07 2013 11:05 LockeTazeline wrote:
Awesome stuff, as always.

What are you going to do with HotS? I noticed you've already put in the MLG Showdowns.

There are already various HotS showmatches and tournaments in the database, and we (and anyone who wants to help out!) are in the process of categorizing them as HotS matches/tournaments.

As far as I know, there won't be a distinction made between WoL and HotS matches played in regards to the ratings. There might be some chaos during the launch of HotS because of this, but there's really no smart way to prevent this, and the ratings will adjust quickly enough.
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3805 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-02-07 12:56:28
February 07 2013 12:55 GMT
#30
On February 07 2013 21:41 JustPassingBy wrote:
Only 5 terrans in the top 40 non-Koreans now... ;;
Is there a reason why Demulsim does not show up in the non-Korean rankings, btw?


No matches played for 4 periods (8 weeks) meaning he is currently too hard to rate, his rating isn't deleted, just hidden until we again have an idea of his skill level.

It's explained here
http://aligulac.com/faq

"If a player has not played any games for four periods (eight weeks, or about two months), he or she is removed from the list. The entry is still there, and will be taken into account if the player plays a new game some time in the future. It's only kept from the published list to keep it from filling up with uncertain and possibly irrelevant data.

The same happens if your rating uncertainty goes over 200.

I'm aware that a strict limit of only two months may seem harsh, but as the game is so volatile, if a player doesn't play fairly frequently, the ratings quickly become very uncertain and useless. Remember, your rating is still there.
"
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
TheBB
Profile Blog Joined July 2009
Switzerland5133 Posts
February 07 2013 14:30 GMT
#31
On February 07 2013 11:11 Greenei wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 07 2013 10:02 Greenei wrote:
how about a 'predicted rating development'? as in 'if these games, which have been reviewed, were the only games played in this timeframe, this rating would be the result.

so what do you think about this? i just think it would be really cool stuff.

Yeah, this is doable.
http://aligulac.com || Barcraft Switzerland! || Zerg best race. || Stats-poster extraordinaire.
dcemuser
Profile Joined August 2010
United States3248 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-02-07 14:54:30
February 07 2013 14:50 GMT
#32
I love Aligulac.

The -only- issue that I can think of is that there is a 'flaw' to the way it handles GSL/PL. When the Korean scene stays largely separate from the foreign scene, Aligulac has a hard time distinguishing "the gap". For example, the first few GSL seasons had almost no players who had played against foreigners in recorded matches.

Therefore, players who beat exclusively Koreans who did not play (and stomp) foreigners are not having their bar set high enough. This taints a lot of the 2010/early 2011 data. For example, look at NesTea in the Hall of Fame. He's below -Naniwa- and like 4 other foreign players, despite winning 3 GSLs in a 9 month time period.

Luckily, this probably isn't a major issue going forward, since MLG and other tournaments are bringing major Koreans to stomp foreigners, and then those Koreans go home and get beaten by better Koreans, which keeps things balanced. However, there was a once upon a time where the scenes rarely mixed.

TL;DR: GSL Code S is the highest skill tournament in the world, but to Aligulac, this is something that needs to be -continuously- proven, and therefore runs the risk of -not- being proven due to the said players not traveling and focusing entirely on GSL.

http://aligulac.com/periods/21/?sort=&race=ptzrs&nats=all is a big example of this. Some guy named Bubbles 3-0'd a bunch of foreigners (0 korean players) and became the #1 player in the world, lol.

I'm honestly not sure how you solve this, other than just mentioning it in the FAQ and admitting the early data is going to be kind of weird.
Conti
Profile Joined November 2010
Germany2516 Posts
February 07 2013 15:15 GMT
#33
That's precisely the reason why we have an international TLPD and a Korean TLPD (at least I think so. Do let me know if I'm wrong here). Since in Brood War, Koreans practically never played against foreigners, and if they would have combined the TLPD elo ranking back then, foreigners would rank evenly with Koreans. Which was even more laughable back then in Brood War than it is now in SC2. So having separate databases for TLPD made perfect sense.

Now, however, Koreans play foreigners all the time, so we can compare them. With the exception, as you say, of the early days of GSL. Another more prominent exception is Proleague, and it's even worse there, IMO. You can see the jumps in the rankings of most Kespa players (Classic, Last, Trap, etc.), which denotes the point where Kespa players started to play against non-Kespa Koreans. As you can see, the rankings have adjusted pretty quickly.

Unfortunately, there are still a lot of lesser known Kespa players who have almost solely played in Proleague so far, and their ranking is unrealistically low. Heck, some of the worst ranked players in the entire ranking are Kespa players. I don't think there's any real way to "fix" this, other than waiting it out until the Kespa ratings have adjusted to the overall ratings.
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3805 Posts
February 07 2013 15:20 GMT
#34
On February 07 2013 23:50 dcemuser wrote:
I love Aligulac.

The -only- issue that I can think of is that there is a 'flaw' to the way it handles GSL/PL. When the Korean scene stays largely separate from the foreign scene, Aligulac has a hard time distinguishing "the gap". For example, the first few GSL seasons had almost no players who had played against foreigners in recorded matches.

Therefore, players who beat exclusively Koreans who did not play (and stomp) foreigners are not having their bar set high enough. This taints a lot of the 2010/early 2011 data. For example, look at NesTea in the Hall of Fame. He's below -Naniwa- and like 4 other foreign players, despite winning 3 GSLs in a 9 month time period.

Luckily, this probably isn't a major issue going forward, since MLG and other tournaments are bringing major Koreans to stomp foreigners, and then those Koreans go home and get beaten by better Koreans, which keeps things balanced. However, there was a once upon a time where the scenes rarely mixed.

TL;DR: GSL Code S is the highest skill tournament in the world, but to Aligulac, this is something that needs to be -continuously- proven, and therefore runs the risk of -not- being proven due to the said players not traveling and focusing entirely on GSL.

http://aligulac.com/periods/21/?sort=&race=ptzrs&nats=all is a big example of this. Some guy named Bubbles 3-0'd a bunch of foreigners (0 korean players) and became the #1 player in the world, lol.

I'm honestly not sure how you solve this, other than just mentioning it in the FAQ and admitting the early data is going to be kind of weird.


It speaks for itself that it takes a lot of matches from a large group of players to determine their skills,and I agree that the early stages of the lists are somewhat dubious. The same goes for a lot of the Kespa pros, the more matches we get to see from them, and the more interaction there is in the entire scene, the better the lists and the predictions get. They all started out at 1000 rating, which isn't a lot since we knew that most of them would still be pretty good, but it is also hard to just say "well they are better than a 1000 for sure" when we have no definitive way of being sure.

Valid points/concerns though.
The system will get shaken a lot when HotS hits as well.
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
VirgilSC2
Profile Blog Joined June 2011
United States6151 Posts
February 07 2013 15:25 GMT
#35
At this point I'm starting to think TL should just buy rights to Aligulac and roll it in as TLPD....

I love this site man.
Clarity Gaming #1 Fan | Avid MTG Grinder | @VirgilSC2
Grovbolle
Profile Blog Joined July 2011
Denmark3805 Posts
February 07 2013 15:28 GMT
#36
On February 08 2013 00:25 VirgilSC2 wrote:
At this point I'm starting to think TL should just buy rights to Aligulac and roll it in as TLPD....

I love this site man.


Well they can always download the MySQL dump
http://aligulac.com/db/
Lies, damned lies and statistics: http://aligulac.com
twistedalpha
Profile Joined September 2010
Philippines139 Posts
February 07 2013 15:54 GMT
#37
For a second there I thought you're talking about this guy

[image loading]
JustPassingBy
Profile Blog Joined January 2011
10776 Posts
February 07 2013 16:27 GMT
#38
On February 07 2013 21:55 Grovbolle wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 07 2013 21:41 JustPassingBy wrote:
Only 5 terrans in the top 40 non-Koreans now... ;;
Is there a reason why Demulsim does not show up in the non-Korean rankings, btw?


No matches played for 4 periods (8 weeks) meaning he is currently too hard to rate, his rating isn't deleted, just hidden until we again have an idea of his skill level.

It's explained here
http://aligulac.com/faq

"If a player has not played any games for four periods (eight weeks, or about two months), he or she is removed from the list. The entry is still there, and will be taken into account if the player plays a new game some time in the future. It's only kept from the published list to keep it from filling up with uncertain and possibly irrelevant data.

The same happens if your rating uncertainty goes over 200.

I'm aware that a strict limit of only two months may seem harsh, but as the game is so volatile, if a player doesn't play fairly frequently, the ratings quickly become very uncertain and useless. Remember, your rating is still there.
"


Ah, thanks for the info. That rules does make alot of sense to me.
KillerDucky
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
United States498 Posts
February 07 2013 17:16 GMT
#39
On February 07 2013 23:50 dcemuser wrote:
I love Aligulac.

The -only- issue that I can think of is that there is a 'flaw' to the way it handles GSL/PL. When the Korean scene stays largely separate from the foreign scene, Aligulac has a hard time distinguishing "the gap". For example, the first few GSL seasons had almost no players who had played against foreigners in recorded matches.

Therefore, players who beat exclusively Koreans who did not play (and stomp) foreigners are not having their bar set high enough. This taints a lot of the 2010/early 2011 data. For example, look at NesTea in the Hall of Fame. He's below -Naniwa- and like 4 other foreign players, despite winning 3 GSLs in a 9 month time period.

Luckily, this probably isn't a major issue going forward, since MLG and other tournaments are bringing major Koreans to stomp foreigners, and then those Koreans go home and get beaten by better Koreans, which keeps things balanced. However, there was a once upon a time where the scenes rarely mixed.

TL;DR: GSL Code S is the highest skill tournament in the world, but to Aligulac, this is something that needs to be -continuously- proven, and therefore runs the risk of -not- being proven due to the said players not traveling and focusing entirely on GSL.

http://aligulac.com/periods/21/?sort=&race=ptzrs&nats=all is a big example of this. Some guy named Bubbles 3-0'd a bunch of foreigners (0 korean players) and became the #1 player in the world, lol.

I'm honestly not sure how you solve this, other than just mentioning it in the FAQ and admitting the early data is going to be kind of weird.


It's possible to fix this, some papers I read call it parameter smoothing, using backward filtering to smooth the past ratings. See for example this paper: http://tennis-skill-rankings.googlecode.com/hg-history/c977c53a3af2913e780e39666fe1a272cc298319/links/glicko.pdf

MarineKingPrime Forever!
ZenithM
Profile Joined February 2011
France15952 Posts
Last Edited: 2013-02-07 17:21:07
February 07 2013 17:20 GMT
#40
On February 07 2013 10:15 TheBB wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 07 2013 10:07 Day[9] wrote:
Aligulac is very nearly Caligula backwards. At least they anagram.

It's not even that complicated. Just move the C to the front or the back.

It's a word I came up with as a kid :-P. I don't remember if Caligula was the inspiration. I guess he could've been.

I thought it definitely was :D
When you released aligulac for the first time, I even searched into Caligula to find some kind of connection to your website. It wasn't very insightful. Except that he had decent macro, I guess.
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