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Z-BosoN
Brazil2590 Posts
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Z-BosoN
Brazil2590 Posts
So, catching up. I really don't feel like making too much of thrawn's "brilliant" plan. The main thing that bugs me though is how he disappeared after he stated his so-called "plan": On December 10 2012 14:53 thrawn2112 wrote: alright well I'm tired of the miller claim discussion so here's how it went down from my perspective. At first it was mainly a joke, but it was also intended to jump start discussion. + Show Spoiler + wow big surprise there right? Thrawn, here you mention that this was all intended to find scum pursuing you. So... now that the cards have been flipped, what the hell are your conclusions?? @wherebugsgo On December 10 2012 17:14 wherebugsgo wrote: I counted 5, so it should be a 66% chance, but w/e. Regardless, there's a much higher chance IMO of finding scum for day 1 in those who haven't joined yet than looking at the currently active players. I chose Palmar because he was one of those 5, because I want to see what he says, and because on balance concerns, if the host decided to balance teams, he's most likely to be the vet on the scumteam. All of these things, again, are preliminary so they mean nothing until Palmar actually shows up. (or, for that matter, all of the other guys). I have a heuristic for determining who out of that group is most likely to be scum, but I'll wait for them to appear before doing anything. No point till then anyway. I don't get why you are assuming there are four scum, is this obvious due to the setup? Also, I don't understand why you chose to use the "80%" argument in wanting to go for palmar BEFORE that explanation in the quoted post, when that argument is easily applied to any of the people who hadn't posted. | ||
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Z-BosoN
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The lack of follow-up also worries me. | ||
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Z-BosoN
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I see you've got some Adam going on for ya. I think you are getting too riled up over expecting someone to go balls out on a day one suspicion. You, for example, are not nearly as spammy as your day one self. I don't think this aligns with your townie play, but I don't think it necessarily makes you scummy. I am curious to hear from adam his stance on thrawn, as he seemed to have dropped it.. | ||
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Z-BosoN
Brazil2590 Posts
On December 11 2012 04:12 wherebugsgo wrote: If not 4 scum, then what? 3 is too few, and 5 is too many. With 1 kp per night any other numbers are not very balanced unless there is some sort of blue distribution that makes other numbers likely. You don't understand the rest of it because you didn't read properly. That won't do. On December 10 2012 12:47 wherebugsgo wrote: alrighty. I've concluded from the current events that there's an 80% preliminary chance that Palmar is scum. Therefore I'm voting him, at least until he comes back and proves me otherwise. ##unvote ##vote Palmar Why did you say 80% chance yatta yatta here? Why not give the explanation you gave later on when ppl started asking questions? | ||
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Z-BosoN
Brazil2590 Posts
On December 11 2012 04:29 wherebugsgo wrote: To Z-Boson, who is scum, and why? Who do you intend on voting? I'm not going to bother answering any questions that are irrelevant to the question of who is scum, since I've already adequately explained myself and anyone pursuing further lines of questioning regarding why I singled out palmar is not actively reading the thread or is seeking an easy alternative to doing real scumhunting. I was trying to figure out where you were coming from with all of that, because I honestly can't follow that thought process. Anyways, I don't have any solid scum reads. As I've stated earlier, I find vivax a bit suspicious, but beyond that nothing really. What about you? | ||
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Z-BosoN
Brazil2590 Posts
On December 11 2012 04:43 jaybrundage wrote: I didnt mean you specifically but some people in TL mafia do. I actually am starting to lean more neutral on Thrawn. In my early mind set I just couldnt see someone misclaiming as a joke, or risk getting them selves lynched. Im a little worried about our lurkers. And i would prefer to see more posts out of ZBoston. Specifically ZBoston what do you think about Claritys case on me and some people soft defending me. Also MunkE has had like 3 posts since his /in and every single one of them is mostly about WBG statistic. Do we really have to nitpick over something like that. WBG was mostly trying to bait Palmar out. Lets hear your thoughts on some cases On Vivax its odd. He seems really interested in going after Thrawns claim and saying that Ve defended it as a joke. When its not a joke. Even when thrawn said his self it was just a joke. That he stubbornly. Refused to explain to generate discussion. I think he is concentrating on thrawns little joke to much to the exclusion of everything else. I can see him being scum. ##Vote Vivax (Because some people get SOOOOO antsy if you dont follow your argument with your vote.) It's Z-Boson. It's funny you should mention Munk-E, because he has a town read on WBG, even though he disagrees with WBG's logic. Does anyone find this post right here: On December 11 2012 01:44 Munk-E wrote: This is actually my 4th or fifth game. I can't find the others in my post history, because i guess TL doesn't keep a post history that's that old. Yes, day 1 lynch last time, I'm gonna try to be more active so people don't waste their lynch again for no reason other than i didn't say enough. as for WBG, the more i think about it, the more I think he's more likely to be town. If he was scum, this play would either be to bus palmer if he's scum, which would be stupid and unnecessary, or to try to start a bandwagon on him if he's town, which would most likely be futile. He could be trying to appear to be an aggressive scumhunter, attacking harmless enemies though, so he seems town, but then again, aggressive scumhunting seems town. I see his logic now, but it is flawed. I highly doubt that all the scum were lurkers. Any close to being normal? | ||
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Z-BosoN
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Z-BosoN
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thoughts on munk-E? | ||
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Z-BosoN
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On December 11 2012 05:54 debears wrote: HI marv!!!!!!! *waves* @Z-Bo Did you actually read what I said about Adam? Or did you just skim? My argument was not about "him not going balls deep" It was about him implying thrawn was scum and then saying thrawn wasn't scum Take another gander son Dude, wait to take the arrogant stance once you yourself have properly read what people have said. You said Adam implied thrawn was scum. Presumably when he said thrawn was "different" from his town meta. I said this isn't the case, because saying someone is playing different from their town meta doesn't necessarily mean they think they are scum. I used your meta as an example to this. Then you said he said thrawn wasn't scum. This is not true, he never said thrawn wasn't scum. Are you deliberately twisting words here? | ||
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Z-BosoN
Brazil2590 Posts
The main issue I have with him is his stance regarding his suspicions. They don't make the slightest of sense to someone who is actually scumhunting. Lets us look at his first post. I'm gonna be analyzing two things. 1. Suspicion on debears and 2. suspicion on thrawn On December 10 2012 09:37 Djodref wrote: Hello everybody ! @thrawn Did you seriously not read that millers are not self aware ? @debears Are you seriously willing to enforce a "Lynch all Liars" policy ? My first reaction to thrawn post was "yeah, obvious scum" then I thought that he might not have been serious at all. A one liner for a miller claim doesn't look real, regardless of his alignment. The way he answered "nvm, then" shows that he is carefree about it. Debears, you are jumpy as both alignments, but I wouldn't expect your town self to post a video instead of engaging the discussion to get this game rolling. FoS debears He immediately feels surprised about thrawn's claim, and questions him about it. Now, look at all this interesting in his part towards debears. He does the following:
So, that leaves us at: 1. thrawn - surprising claim, but he's not necessarily scum. 2. debears - bad LAL policy. Video instead of discussion. FOS. Next post: On December 10 2012 09:53 Djodref wrote: Not true, if it was a probe post and you did it as town, then you can give a real answer like "I totally read that miller are not self-aware, but I wanted to use this fakeclaim as a probe to see how people would react to it" My problem is that I'm faced with the following choice right now
So, I'll go with the first choice for the moment and ask you how you were expecting people to react to this fakeclaim. All in all, what was your motivation for this post ? Here he proceeds in assuring that he'd rather go with a bluffing town thrawn rather than a scum one. Even so, he questions thrawn's motivation. Here's where it starts to get icky. Debears answers Djo, and here's his reply: On December 10 2012 09:56 Djodref wrote: I don't know how serious this vote was and this is what I want you to answer me, not throwing questions against questions. Given your behavior (video + this post), I would say not serious. The problem is not posting a video, my problem is that you are not engaging the discussion with thrawn after you vote him. Now, suddenly, the problem is not posting a video. The problem is not engaging the discussion with thrawn after debears voted him. This is all kinds of absurd. First of all, he mentions that the problem has nothing to do with the video - which is crystal clear it does. Also, as you recall in the first post, Djo acknowledged it being a policy vote. Policy vote is exactly that: a policy vote, no questions asked. What kind of discussion is Djo expecting? This is exactly the kind of useless argument scum like focusing on. I can't for the life of me see what Djo was expecting with this question... It gets better. On December 10 2012 10:07 Djodref wrote: Yes, I guess you were saying that your vote was not real with the video. What was your motivation with your first vote on thrawn ? What is your real take on thrawn fakeclaim ? He's still on about how debears voted thrawn, when he had already recognized it as a policy lynch. This to me seems like fluff. Scum wanting to look like they are contributing. So, right now, we have: 1. thrawn - surprising claim, but he's not necessarily scum. Actually it's more likely that he's town. 2. debears - bad LAL policy. Video instead of discussion. FOS. Doesn't engage in the discussion with thrawn after he votes. Now his reasons for voting thrawn are questionable. Of course, the natural townie thing to do right now is... On December 10 2012 10:35 Djodref wrote: I don't like it. I don't understand why you are being so stubborn... Let's see if it's really all you have to say about it. ##Vote thrawn OF COURSE! Pressure vote someone you have a town read on, instead of someone you've been pressuring for the last two-three pages. Then, after realizing that he was being completely balls-out useless with his pressure on thrawn, he decides it's time to drop it and sheep a Clarity case, which has NOTHING to do with absolutely ANYTHING he's been up to until that point in time: On December 10 2012 14:46 Djodref wrote: @ debears So, between Adam and Jay, which one of them should deserve your vote right now ? Because it looks like to me that the main reason for you to vote Adam is that he asked for your vote and voted against you. I think Clarity made good points against Jay and I'm also leaning town on thrawn right now. I think I know the reason why he doesn't want to explain himself right now and I don't think that my pressure vote is going to work out. @ jay It looks like you are leaning scum on thrawn. Would you care to convince us that he is indeed scum and that we should vote him ? As you can see, the risk to start an early bandwagon on him is not so big. ##Vote jay This is 100% not town mentality. If this isn't scum getting lost in the sidetracks, I don't know what is. What happened to the discussion? Whatever happened to debears? The only time he mentions debears again is in questioning him about Adam ( here: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=384953¤tpage=12#237), and this is on a whole other dimension than on what he was pressuring debears about. Scum. tl;dr Sheep: ##Vote Djodref | ||
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Z-BosoN
Brazil2590 Posts
On December 11 2012 06:29 debears wrote: He did say it. Sure, I paraphrased it. Has the same meaning to me Well, that's saying that he's not willing to call him scum, as in he's not 100% scum. I feel that's kind of different of saying that he ISN'T scum ==> he's town. I don't feel like these are the same things but whatever. What you think about djodref? | ||
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Z-BosoN
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Can you give us your "updated opinion"? ... | ||
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Z-BosoN
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On December 11 2012 06:53 Clarity_nl wrote: I'm sorry to point out the obvious, but.... What? What made you change your mind on Tunkeg? Why are you saying he's town in one post, then in another post casually saying you'd lynch him? | ||
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Z-BosoN
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Z-BosoN
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On December 11 2012 07:32 Vivax wrote: He answered two hours after his last comment, just to defend himself with one line. His first post was made to fit in in some way, then he apparently spent hours lurking only to come out again when called out from me. Don't act as if I changed my mind out of nothing. I changed it cause of his post. Just cause clarity highlights one small part of it (the one where I express my willingness to vote) doesn't mean you shouldn't read the rest of it ,where I say that I didn't like Tunkegs response. I don't want to lynch him. I don't like this post he just made. Let's lynch him. This isn't how you play mafia dude. Why did his post made you change your mind? You keep taking stances without proper justification. If you are town and want to win tell us what the hell is going on through your head. | ||
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Z-BosoN
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Z-BosoN
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On December 11 2012 07:46 Tunkeg wrote: I refer you to my "useless" first post: They haven't posted much since. But as I said, I think jaybrundage style reminds me of the way he played student (one year ago), and I think in general his way of posting is appearing scummy. For Djordref I think he have posted alot of useless questions, and maybe some usefull ones, maybe to look like he is active. But then again, maybe that is his style. I am not sure what to make of him. I find it strange however that you hadn't picked up on my view on these players, when you were so eager to lynch me. Jumping on the first available bandwagon there is are we? Maybe you are scum. Then again, maybe you are not. I'm not sure what to make of you. However, I could be wrong. But hey, I could be right. It all depends. | ||
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Z-BosoN
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totally watching that | ||
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Z-BosoN
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On December 11 2012 07:56 Vivax wrote: That sounds nice, Palmar. Sadly, my wireless router is like a 56 k modem, so I can't follow your stream. If you wanna know I have a 4 KB/s download rate. Tunkeg, tell us what's so scummy about the two players pls. Boson, can you give us another useful post?Just like that yo. How bout you try doing just that? You know, instead of just placing your votes, giving actual reasoning? | ||
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