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Newbie Mini Mafia XIX

Forum Index > TL Mafia
Post a Reply
Miltonkram
Profile Joined December 2011
United States310 Posts
July 04 2012 17:07 GMT
#572
Hey guys, I'll be busy until about 8-12 hours from now. I'll catch up on the thread then.
Miltonkram
Profile Joined December 2011
United States310 Posts
July 05 2012 21:53 GMT
#603
Ok, finally back in the thread. I was expecting to get in here sooner but RL got in the way.

Once I get back from work I'll reread the thread and post my reads. I don't think I've seen a newbie game where every scum player hasn't slipped at least once. It's very possible to find scum players at this point, especially with two whole cycles to pull from. Townies keep your heads up. This game isn't over until it's over. I'll be back soon.
Miltonkram
Profile Joined December 2011
United States310 Posts
July 06 2012 04:10 GMT
#607
@ Keirathi
I'm doing the best I can. Replacing into this game has been ridiculously hard. I just got caught up on the thread and am now reading through filters. I'll give an update on my reads shortly.
Miltonkram
Profile Joined December 2011
United States310 Posts
July 06 2012 05:37 GMT
#608
I think I have a pretty compelling argument for who we should lynch today... wait for it... ... ... ...

iamperfection


Here's the case:
He bandwagons onto both Anacletus and Fencer/me with this post.
Im torn between fencer and anceltus. I dont like the way fencer tried to bandwagon onto someone elses logic. On anceltus i dont really know i think he just posts a lot and he kind of clamed up when some of the suspicion came up. Im leaning more twoards fencer but im new at this so i will wait for more of discussion before casting my vote.

Notice that he has an opinion, albeit a weak one, on which of the players is the stronger scum read. If he were town, logic dictates that he would then pursue the player he has a stronger scum read on. Any well meaning townie would do that, whether through discussion, questioning, or just further analysis of a player's posts. If you look through his later posts, he doesn't. This leads me to believe that he really didn't care which one got lynched. Knowing what I know, that Anacletus and I are/were both town, his apathy towards the players in the crosshairs looks particularly damning. Also, the fact that he had a stronger scumread on Fencer makes the following posts quite suspect.
Although i dont agree with the line of thinking that got the bandwagon on anacletus, You have to say something anacletus! Ill give you a few more hours before i cast my vote.

He doesn't agree with the line of thinking that got Anacletus on the chopping block. Then why does he still support the lynch effort against him?
I think Anacletus is more suspicious than Fencer710. I think at this point it is likely that one or the other is likely scum just from the way they are posting. I also buy the defense that fencer gave more than the defense that anacletus gave. I think fencer argument that his actions are that of a noob townie make sense.

so i vote## Anacletus

Let me get this straight. First he finds Fencer more suspicious than Anacletus, but he doesn't actively pursue Fencer at all. Then he disagrees with the line of thinking that led to the bandwagon on Anacletus, but in the end he finds Anacletus more suspicious than Fencer. This does not make sense other than the fact that he really didn't care which of the players got lynched. That type of attitude doesn't make sense for anyone but scum. I think his play can be classified as a fairly major scumslip, one that I'm surprised hasn't been caught.

If this isn't enough to convince you here are a few other scummy parts of his play:
- He hasn't pursued cases or players with very much urgency.
- He once classified BobTheLob's play as "bad townie," but has since flip-flopped his opinion. What reasons are there for him to flip-flop at this time? A scum victory is really close. He could be going after a weak player in order to get the win.
- He seems really self-aware of his own status as a lurker, but has never explained why he hasn't been in the thread. IMO most townie lurkers have good reasons for there lack of posting. I would call iamperfection's style "active lurking" or "lurking with purpose."

If you just look at his filter you can see the lack of urgency he's played with and the suspicious logic behind his Fencer to Anacletus flip-flop. He's slipped and he has slipped hard. Let's lynch this guy.

##Vote: iamperfection
Miltonkram
Profile Joined December 2011
United States310 Posts
July 06 2012 08:05 GMT
#610
I figured this might help people's reads on me. This is a list of previous games I've been in on TL. Spoilered so it won't take up too much space.
+ Show Spoiler +
NMM XIV: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=337671&user=240210
Played scum in this game (badly I might add).

NMM XV: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=340298&user=240210
Played Vanilla Town in this game.

NMM XVII: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=344270&user=240210
Played scum in this game.

NMM XVIII: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=345447&user=240210
Replaced in as Vanilla Town this game.
Miltonkram
Profile Joined December 2011
United States310 Posts
July 06 2012 11:21 GMT
#611
Going to sleep. I'd really appreciate some input on the iamperfection case I put together. I think at this point he is the best choice for lynch. I'll be up before the lynch proceedings happen, hopefully with enough time to contribute more analysis.
Miltonkram
Profile Joined December 2011
United States310 Posts
July 06 2012 17:44 GMT
#628
Hold the phone. What do you guys think of the scumslip I posted on iamperfection?

I feel like I found a pretty major scumslip by him. I think he's our best chance of flipping scum. I know Hopeless1der looks scummy, but that is mostly from his D1 play. He has since improved, whether from PMing the coaches or Mafia QT I'm not quite sure yet, but he's improved enough to the point where lynching him makes me feel uncomfortable. I'd really like people to take a look into his case.
Miltonkram
Profile Joined December 2011
United States310 Posts
July 06 2012 18:23 GMT
#630
@ Keirathi
I disagree. I feel like if you look at the flow of thought in iamperfection's filter, it doesn't make sense for anyone but scum. There are other players who were pretty wishy-washy at the time, but iamperfection states, "I dont agree with the line of thinking that got the bandwagon on anacletus," before anacletus was lynched. This sounds like a player who knows Anacletus is town. I don't think any of the other players had quite so bad a line of reasoning as iamperfection, and I'm calling him out on it. I think he has the greatest chance of flipping scum of any of the players left in the game.
Miltonkram
Profile Joined December 2011
United States310 Posts
July 06 2012 19:02 GMT
#637
For the record, if we decide to no-lynch, I believe we can vote for a no-lynch.
Miltonkram
Profile Joined December 2011
United States310 Posts
July 06 2012 19:58 GMT
#646
Myles, are you around? I believe the consensus is to no-lynch. That doesn't work if someone gets modkilled.
Miltonkram
Profile Joined December 2011
United States310 Posts
July 06 2012 20:12 GMT
#649
Me niether, considering the game hangs on everyone being alive. I would still prefer him to stay in the game without being replaced. I can only imagine how difficult it could get with another replacement.

I'd also appreciate it if town players would be vigilant around the deadline to make sure this no-lynch goes through. AU + Promethelax, if either of you are in the thread, I'd like one of you to get your vote off of Hopeless1der. If neither of you are scum, and Hopeless isn't scum, then all 3 scum could switch onto the Hopeless vote for a mislynch. Get your vote on either Myles or Promethelax.
Miltonkram
Profile Joined December 2011
United States310 Posts
July 06 2012 21:30 GMT
#656
Good move AU. Also, I think it's time we start discussing at night. It's very probable that a well-meaning townie is going to die tonight and any information/scumhunting that they can contribute would probably help us rather than hurt us.

Right now I'm looking at a scum team among the following: Keirathi/Blind-Rawr, iamperfection, BobTheLob, and Hopeless1der.

I'll be rereading filters to see if I can come up with anything more solid on these players.
Miltonkram
Profile Joined December 2011
United States310 Posts
July 07 2012 20:59 GMT
#661
Alright, I'm going to get my thoughts out here before the day post.

I agree with AU that Hopeless must be scum. I've got a fairly strong town read on both Promethelax and AU. Come day, if I'm still alive, I will vote for Hopeless.

... and yea, the townsfolk did then sacrifice his body to the hamster gods.

Moving on. I realized that a lot of my cases against the other players have been created based on process of elimination. While I don't mind discussion at night, I find that conversation on townie reads during the night only benefits scum. Hence, I will be posting this right before the day post so as not to give the PBU's more information.

Myles- I have a slight townie read on him. During the beginning of the game, he clashed a little bit with JingleHell. JingleHell was doing his best to be a strong voice for the town. I find scum players will typically agree with a strong townie voice rather than risk being brought into the spotlight. The fact that he was suspicious of JingleHell's intentions gives me a townie vibe, even though it was over an issue of semantics. A scum player would know that JH was town and likely wouldn't disagree with such a strong townie voice.

iamperfection- I'm pretty sure he's scum. Just look at my case against him.

Keirathi- Blind-Rawr put Keirathi in a bad spot. If I disassociate the play of both players I can see that Keirathi is playing fairly close to his town meta. That leads me to believe that Blind-Rawr was a weak/disinterested town player. Barring further evidence, I'm giving Keirathi the BOTD.

BobTheLob- I'm guessing he is our last scum player and iamperfection was going for a full on bus against him during D3. It would make sense considering his "I'm about to give up" post. It would also explain iamperfection's sudden flurry of activity.

These reads are subject to change, but I feel fairly confident in them. If I find any evidence for or against them I will post it. I don't mind if we agree to lynch Hopeless right away, but don't let that kill discussion.

This goes out to everybody. Do you agree with my reads? Is there any evidence for or against my reads that you can present? I'll be making a quick run out to the store, but then I'll be back before work to contribute some more.
Miltonkram
Profile Joined December 2011
United States310 Posts
July 07 2012 21:12 GMT
#666
Boooooo! I wanted to keep playing.

GG everybody
Miltonkram
Profile Joined December 2011
United States310 Posts
July 09 2012 21:11 GMT
#783
GG everybody

Good job mafia. You made it a little too obvious that you were a team IMO. I think you should have bussed one of your members during this last day cycle. It would have guaranteed the win and made this last day less of an all-or-nothing move.

Really good job Keirathi. You did great buddy. It's too bad you couldn't pull out the win.
Miltonkram
Profile Joined December 2011
United States310 Posts
July 09 2012 21:17 GMT
#794
Thanks GhostTheToast for hosting. Sorry the game was so dead at times, quite different from the real ABL discussion thread in fact.
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