EPTPick Your Poison Mafia
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Sbrubbles
Brazil5776 Posts
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Sbrubbles
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I think there's a pretty good advantage in not consolidating votes for the mafia powers. If they're not sure what they'll get, they'll be forced to hedge their bets by giving us one roleblockable role and one information role. Discussing the mafia roles is only good if we can reach a conclusion of which one is best to give them in all cincumstances and I don't think that is the case. Poisons are relatively straightforward: -Lynch locks once majority is reached -> not really dangerous at any point, but as Toad pointed out, it would be useful to avoid getting a no-lynch on d1 -Voting is done using a secret ballot -> perfectly fine when only 1 mafia is left or we're at lylo -The mafia team recieves a secret hidden vote -> not a problem early on -The lynch is replaced with a mayoral election who decides the days lynch -> days 2 or 3 (this one shouldn't be a problem at all, actually, as long as we force the mayor to lynch according to a town vote) -The role and alignment for the lynch are hidden -> ok for lylo, though it might be a bitch if we still haven't killed the mafia PR -Majority + 1 is required for a sucessful lynch -> not a problem early on -The day cycle is shortened to 24 hours -> this is actually somewhat of a boon later on, when the discussion tends to slow down. | ||
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On May 30 2012 22:01 Radfield wrote: when we ask everyone tomorrow what they sent in(without encrypting today), all townies are going to tell the truth, and all mafia are going to lie. If we encrypt are roles today, all townies are going to tell the truth, and all mafia are going to lie. Encrypting does nothing. Regardless, It doesn't matter if mafia know they are getting roleblocker, as they still have to give us the roles we want. There is no advantage to mafia knowing they are getting roleblocker. Having them know for sure they're gonna get roleblocker means they can get whatever combination of town roles they want. Tracker/Vig/Medic and even cop can get messed up. Also, giving them the roleblocker means they can give us Tracker/Medic without fear of the tracker claiming (I think this is the most likely scenario). I'm not saying it's a bad idea to give them the roleblocker, I just think keeping them in the dark is better. We'll know what role they got by tallying up our votes afterwards. If mafia chooses to mess us up by lying in a way that changes the results, we'll have a huge advantage afterwards if we manage to flip their PR. Think of this example: GF x Framer x Roleblocker Tally: 6 x 2 x 4 "Real" Tally: 3 x 2 x 4 If we flip their roleblocker or if someone is roleblocked, we'll know with 100% certainty that the 4 who voted for roleblocker are confirmed town. We won't be sure about the people who voted for framer because 4 x 1 x 4 is also an option, but the 4 confirmed townies is plenty of an advantage (note I'm not taking into account votes from confirmed townies votes, which would make figuring out who's lying easier). Anyway, my point is that mafia will probably not try to mess up the results of the voting, but if they do so it will be a huge risk for them. | ||
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Sbrubbles
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On May 30 2012 23:16 prplhz wrote: @Sbrubbles You say it yourself, it's a huge risk for them to try to rig anything so they're not going to do it. It's very important for town that we know what role we give them today to eliminate any sort of confusion. If we don't know what role we give them, then they can just argue as if they had any role, and town will just argue along with them. While it's very hard, I think it's very very important that we get a majority+3 on their role so we are absolutely sure what they got. This is even more important than what they end up getting. Tracker/Medic/Roleblocker combination sounds pretty good to me. What do you mean "without fear of the tracker caliming"? @Radfield What do you mean "scum are going to lie about their votes anyway"? My point is there are be one of two possibilities, if we don't consolidate votes: 1) Mafia doesn't mess up with our vote tally 2) Mafia messes up with our vote tally I assume they'll do 1, since I believe 2) is worse for them anyway. If we assumed wrong, we'll probably have wasted a PR, BUT we'll be able to deduce either the liars or who is telling the truth through the tally (I think my example is a reasonable one). And, of course, there's the intrinsic advantage of mafia not knowing what they're gonna get until they've already picked our roles. On May 30 2012 23:44 prplhz wrote: I don't understand this. How does that open up the possibility for them to get busted for lying? Mafia voting 1-1-1 is the only way for them to not mess up our vote tally (in other words, do option 1) and not get busted for lying. | ||
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Sbrubbles
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I'll be gone for the next 3 hours but I'll be back for the deadline. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + ##### Encrypted: decrypt with http://www.fourmilab.ch/javascrypt/ ZZZZZ IPHWF FSQHH BENQR FAGOR TWQRU VVGEA AKBXJ AHMXV MWCLU FNKAH RSLKI WMGUJ QTOUP CUDJQ CMXJB NWJSP SEMTU DQAGN EEJGB UZZZZ YYYYY ##### End encrypted message | ||
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Sbrubbles
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My key is Sbrubbles. I voted for Framer. + Show Spoiler + ##### Encrypted: decrypt with http://www.fourmilab.ch/javascrypt/ ZZZZZ IPHWF FSQHH BENQR FAGOR TWQRU VVGEA AKBXJ AHMXV MWCLU FNKAH RSLKI WMGUJ QTOUP CUDJQ CMXJB NWJSP SEMTU DQAGN EEJGB UZZZZ YYYYY ##### End encrypted message We should tally up our votes. As I said, mafia would have to be very balsy to try to mess up our voting, even without the previous encryption. | ||
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On May 29 2012 03:32 kitaman27 wrote: The game will begin with a 24 hour selection phase. During this phase, the mafia team will select two roles for town. Additionally, the town will privately vote via PM on a single role for the mafia. If there is a tie, a random role from the tied roles will be selected. The selected roles will not be revealed, however the mafia team will be provided with the voting results. | ||
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Sbrubbles
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On June 01 2012 04:02 HiroPro wrote: A lot of mafia's power in this setup comes from them being able to pick roles for town that are easily countered by the role they receive. If they don't know exactly what role they are getting, they can't do this. I'm not buying this, Hiro. It was pretty clear from the thread that it was a discussion between framer and roleblocker. If you thought it was better to give mafia the framer, instead of roleblocker, why would you vote for the 3rd option? Also, why did/what made you change your mind about about your vote partway through D0? | ||
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On June 01 2012 04:25 prplhz wrote: So you are saying that we can trust all checks even with framer around because it only has a slim chance of working? Framer is a role that works even when they don't use it successfully, just like medic. Your second argument "if they get two blue reads in a day" then they can neutralize them both with roleblocker. What are the odds of them getting two correct bluereads in one day? Even if they did, without roleblocker they could just kill one and then kill the other. Tracker, in my opinion, is the weakest town role overall (worse than 1-shot cop), but it's worse, not better, against a roleblocker than against a framer around. Framer is very unlikely to mess up a tracker early on (though yeah, it's possible), but if a roleblocker is around mafia have the option of discrediting the tracker by leaving him alive and roleblocking him (if he didn't manage to convince town of his check). He'll be still alive but roleblocked, which means chaos for the following day. Also, remember that framer is only 2 shot. + Show Spoiler + On May 31 2012 19:02 Radfield wrote: Then you don't know me very well Zephridd  I skim read all the time, and I do mean all the time. The strength of my play is that I go back and reread many times, and filter everyone many times. Knowing when you can skim and when you need to pay attention is something every good player utilizes, particularly when time is short. Yesterday I had points I wanted to make, and not enough time to do it in(particularly in the morning, when I didn't even finish my post).I obviously picked roleblocker. Anyways, the reason we publicly wanted roleblocker is that we desperately want a medic in this setup, and mafia knowing they are getting roleblocker dramatically increases the odds of us getting one. Consider that pretty much every single mini game ever has the potential for town to have a medic/jailkeeper/etc, the reason for this being that even the threat of having a protective role means mafia can't just shoot whomever they want, whenever they want. You guys are talking as if mafia having the roleblocker is dangerous because they can roleblock any blue claims, but that makes no sense. If we have no medic, mafia don't need to roleblock, they just shoot claimers in the face. If there is no medic in the setup, then roleblocker is an almost completely useless role for mafia. Think someone is blue? Shoot them in the face. Someone claims? Shoot them in the face. The reason that we have a much better chance of getting a medic by choosing roleblocker is that cop and tracker are far and away the worst roles for town in this setup, especially considering that mafia might get gf/framer. Tracker is especially bad, because of the fact that mafia get to choose which one performs the kill, and will always pick whomever is the most town, making the role almost useless unless the tracker holds his abilities until lategame. By picking roleblocker and mafia knowing it, they will likely shy away from giving us the information roles, and instead give us 2 of Vig/Medic/IC. However even if they give us one of those roles and the tracker, the one role they will probably give us is the medic, as I don't think most people realize how important it is to have a medic in a small setup. Again, having a medic is very important for us, because a medic doesn't even have to make a save and can still turn the tide of a game by forcing mafia to shoot away from the most obvious/strong townies. Picking roleblocker gave us the highest chance of getting that medic. Did players who became power roles KNOW they were going to be power roles before day 1? Or were they given the exact same vanilla PM as all the other players @Radfield, I was thinking about this before my vote. If they knew we were going to get medic, they'd want a roleblocker (to prevent town going into follow-the-confirmed-townie mode), but it doesn't necessarily work the other way around. Them knowing the we picked roleblocker doesn't make it that they'd give us a medic. Tracker/vig or tracker/cop are perfectly reasonable combinations. A Roleblocker is essencially a second "blue snipe" for them, because they'll have a really good idea of if they got their block right. This about this: If cop doesn't claim day 2 they'll know they got their N1 block right. If a tracker claims but isn't convincing, they can do as I said above. If they gave us vig, then 1 kill in the night means they blocked correctly and would eliminate the vig the following night. | ||
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On June 01 2012 10:07 slOosh wrote: Gahhh!!! Please post people! From the looks of it we are just going to scramble to get a lurker lynch hours before the deadline. Kurumi - thoughts on anything besides Radfield? Sbrubbles - thoughts on Kurumi / Radfield? risk.nuke & Navillus - please post something. thoughts on each other, Kurumi and Sbrubbles? Kurumi's case on Radfield is based on the assumption that roleblocker is hand-down the worst role to give mafia. Though I partially agree with him (I voted for framer), I don't agree it's an obvious thing. The way Rad argue it was decent and well-reasoned. The case on Kurumi is partly based on his meta and I don't trust cases built solely on meta. What is interesting is that he makes his whole argument with basis on game mechanics (better yet, his opinions on game mechanics), which would be the "safest" way for mafia to be pushing for a mislynch at D1. It feels a bit scummy, but I'm still mostly null on him. I'm very suspicious of HiroPro right now. His GF vote doesn't make sense to me from a town perspective and I'm not convinced on his Zephirdd push. | ||
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Lynching Nautillus would be going for a lurker lynch and I don't think we have to resort to that yet. Also, between lurkers, I'd rather lynch risk.nuke, whose only contribution was to throw dirt and dissapear without any explanation: + Show Spoiler + On June 01 2012 22:02 risk.nuke wrote: I am pleased with radfield and I no longer want to make radpie. On the other hand I believe we could vastly benefit from shortening hiro by a head, turning sloosh into slush and murdering zepphird. Hiro simply hasn't posted anything since back then. His behaviour was reasonably active on D0, so I don't buy that it wasn't clear to him "that the votes would only be between Framer and Roleblocker". His case on Zephirdd was that Zephirdd hadn't contributed to the discussion, though Zephirdd was asking questions, like Sloosh was doing, which is a reasonable way to get discussion going early on. Hiro's filter before that case, though, consisted of just as little discussion, except for mechanics talk, which mafia can also do. He is playing scummy and we should lynch him today. ##Vote: HiroPro @Sloosh: The point is not that he voted GF, but that he voted GF while saying that he preferred framer over roleblocker (and changed his vote from roleblocker not to framer, but to GF). | ||
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Zephirdd: 5 Hiro talis Kurumi risk.nuke Navillus Hiro: 3 Toad Zephirdd Sbrubbles Navillus: 1 wherebugsgo prphlz, Rad and Sloosh still to vote If a Hiro lynch isn't possible, I'd settle for lynching risk.nuke. He had been lurking until a few minutes ago and now parked his vote, without explanation, on a rolling bandwagon. | ||
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On June 02 2012 09:02 slOosh wrote: Toad since you are here can you flesh out the GF explanation? This is also my beef with Sbrubbles. If it was so obvious that it would be a vote split between RB and framer, then mafia would understand that there is no need to vote 1-1-1 because the whole point you vote 1-1-1 is to slip by lie detection, not to confuse town what role mafia has. Hiro voted GF. You are claiming that he is one of mafia who still chose to vote 1-1-1 knowing that RB and framer are the only plausible roles that they will get. So why are you calling Hiro scum by saying that the situation would make a good scum play and therefore he must be scum? I want to vote Sbrubbles for the same reason, as well as how much resistance its been facing. Seriously like 2 or 3 times people just avert discussion away from that dude. My problem isn't with him voting GF per se. It's this: 1) Votes for RB: + Show Spoiler + On May 31 2012 01:54 HiroPro wrote: I see what Toad and Radfield are saying about roleblocker. While I don't really feel that medic/vig against roleblocker is really much of an advantage for us, I can see the chaos that gf/framer can cause (There's no way we're getting innocent child). But I still think doing the encryption is a good idea. It can't hurt. I'd prefer to be on the safe side and allocate six poisons. I don't want us to get in trouble just because we get a medic save. "Secret mafia vote" just isn't that dangerous; we can use that and "majority+1" day1/day2 (when those poisons are the weakest). http://www.fourmilab.ch/javascrypt/javascrypt.html Encrypted Text: ZZZZZ IKQND HLAHA GFAXM GRHFX WHJBP HVVJW QKGDM FLUER ECNNB DMNAN WUNJC IHLRU XHVXV AEKGV IHMJV XJAXL SCIPV EPLGD QQDLM PHKLT DXUIA WUGKM VQIAP WMXFD DQCOJ BUMZZ YYYYY 2) Changes vote to GF, despite prefering Framer to Roleblocker: + Show Spoiler + On May 31 2012 08:15 HiroPro wrote: And a new encrypted role: [spoiler] ZZZZZ GJNLL IRXGM PUBSF MPAHF NLNXV TBBGF JGJHL SJSPW RWJUT SNNDC RCRGK ELJIK LROXB JVKHT FMJFW LIPWW IRBVP CQAJJ SUJCO PGQXN WRCCC WVCEW AVUWJ WBMKE XCVHH EIIZZ YYYYY [/spoiler] + Show Spoiler + [B]On June 01 2012 05:03 HiroPro wrote: Maybe it was clear to you that the votes would only be between Framer and Roleblocker. It wasn't to me; not when the majority of people had not said what they were going to vote for. After Radfield made his argument on why Roleblocker was the best choice, I voted for roleblocker as I felt that Radfield made a good point on town gaining an advantage from knowing exactly what role mafia would get. I realized a little later though, that mafia would derive the exact same benefit if I followed Radfield's plan, so I changed my vote to the role that was worst for mafia in my opinion (godfather). | ||
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##Unvote: HiroPro ##Vote: Navillus | ||
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On June 02 2012 10:24 HiroPro wrote: Navillus: I think most of the points that Radfield talks about in his case on Navillus are correct. Navillus did not contribute much during the setup phase and he has barely said anything on day 1. In the post where he votes, Navillus's behavior is really strange. He votes for Zephirdd but yet at the same time expresses concern that Zephirdd's behavior may be indicative of a newer player. Not only is Navillus unwilling to go through Zephirdd's profile and check out his game history, but he is also voting for someone who he seems to be personally unsure of.... Sbrubbles: If his reasons for voting for me are what he really believes (which appears true for me), then he looks town to me. He contributed thoughts of his own during setup and seemed generally straightforward and open today. I am not willing to vote for him right now. I would like you to answer this question, though Sbrubbles. I can understand why you did not vote for Zephirdd based on my case (You think I am scum), but why is it that you completely ignored the case that talismania brought? I pointed this out before along with my feelings on the flaws in your reasoning regarding Zephirdd, but you ignored it. If what prplhz and Radfield say regarding Zephirdd's status as a blue is correct, then he is not a good lynch for today. I will expect more from him tomorrow, though. Radfield's case on Navillus is solid - I am voting for Navillus. Vote: Navillus Of talis' case on Zephirdd, I just didn't see it. First and third parts are just Zephirdd attacking using meta-accusations (which 9 times out of 10 I ignore) and second part was pressuring you (who I also wanted to pressure). He was attacking everyone, but at least it looked like he was trying to get the ball rolling. + Show Spoiler + On June 01 2012 13:01 talismania wrote: If both truly are red herrings, they're likely good things for scum to try and latch onto and drive momentum towards. With that in mind, consider zepphird: First he kind of fishes around on Radfield: Then he drives the HiroPro story a bit: Then, after no one else is jumping on Radfield, he jumps off and hints at looking at Kurumi (who made the Radfield case): There's almost too much of it to be true but on first blow, to me, it is indicative of scum trying to get a feel for the way winds are blowing in the town, hence the FoS. | ||
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please post, encrypted, the role you picked for mafia(try to encrypt a phrase like "I picked *** because YYY" so it's hard to reverse-crack it). After this phase we de-crack our codes and verify the role we made mafia pick.
