EPTNewbie Mini XIV
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
I typically work from 7pm to 3am EST, if we can find a deadline that doesn't occur in that range that would be ideal. | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
I agree that last minute roleclaims or bandwagons are a bad idea if we set it up at this time. | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
People who still haven't posted since the Day 1 post: -Golden -hegeo -ShiaoPi I'd really like these three players to check in at the very least, if not start to put some information out there. | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Mordanis- Don't get too offended by aggressive behavior. If mafia doesn't actually think that a little pressure will lead to a lynch, then why should they answer any questions at all? We need to make sure that people are held accountable to what they say. sciberbia- What do you have to say about the accusations pointed at you? There's quite a bit of fluffy information in your post. Let's try to keep the conversation more focused on who might be scum, everything else is secondary. | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
ShiaoPi- While sciberbia's posting content was a bit suspect, I wouldn't read too much into his absence. He did state in his post that he was about to get some sleep. Let's hear what he has to say. Golden- This early in the game I think any town reads are going to be weak, so I don't see much value in posting them. We have to remember that mafia have 90% of the information here. Posting town reads can just cut into the 10% that they don't know. If there is a time when it's important that we post such information (e.g. we think we're about to die, we think the town is about to mislynch) then by all means post it, but right now is not one of those crucial times. | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
With the discussion generated I think there is finally enough info for me to start making cases. I'm currently reading through people's filters and making notes on them. I'll post again soon with my scum reads. I'm getting more and more confident that I have a couple solid cases to make. | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
s0Lstice Miltonkram confuses me. You say you don't want people to share town reads because it's giving information to the mafia. What? Scum know who is town and who is not. Scumhunting is ALL ABOUT posting your reads on people. They are accused, and must defend. You smell fishy to me Milton. ##FOS: Miltonkram Note that I'm not complaining about his suspicions of me. I think his suspicions are actually a good townie move. His statement about accusations and defense is really good too. This first post is consistent with good townie play. However, an hour later, without even waiting for my defense he posts: I will be away for a few hours, but before I go I do think I read Milton's point the wrong way. It was: a townie posting a read of any kind, vs. a read declaring someone as town. I went with the former, which as sciberbia pointed out wasn't the intent. I will.. ## unFOS: Miltonkram ...for the time being. I'll go over his filter again when back, and see if I agree with sciberbia's latest post. My point is he should have kept pressuring me. I realize that he misread my post somewhat, but he uses that last line of text to look like he's still pressuring me in some way. I think a townie would leave the FOS on me until I've actually done something to defend myself. Right now it seems like he's trying to apply just enough pressure to appear town, without actually committing to it. That's consistent with scum play in my eyes. ##FOS: s0Lstice | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
On May 23 2012 07:12 ShiaoPi wrote: Regarding my "knee-jerk": I'll just quote my answer to hegeo: + Show Spoiler + I believe it to be a good defense. It is Day 1, nobody is confirmed town until he flips, so why should I not throw the ball at you for a bit, while I answered your main question, which was "how come that you drop your suspicions on sciberba that easily?" That it came over slightly discrediting against you is part of it. As it seemed like you checked the filters of everyone in terms of length. I see no logic behind building a case on a small filter size, when first of your own filter is not that big and secondly there are people with even smaller filters (see Mufaa). Contributionwise I admit that there was not much from me yet. I gave my opinion on the cases others have posted and pointed out that we have a hardcore-lurker (which is more than just a "half-baked metacomment") right now. Really contributing as in lots of activity and some cases, are Release, sciberbia, hegeo and Mordanis. That makes 3 other people besides yourself, whose list of contributions is just as "meager" as mine and still you do not tunnel them. Why? Because of my small filter? But what about Mufaa's? Your argument of small filter = scum/should be pressured seems to go haywire with your case against me, so I naturally suspect you. At this point ShiaoPi seems like he is just treading water. I think he's either bad town or panicking mafia. Please note the sections that I have bolded in his quote. He never addresses the fact that he's being attacked because his posts lack content. He keeps trying to focus attention on other players as a means of defending himself, rather than actually defending himself with content. Then he makes a list of active players, in order to make himself look like he's accomplishing something. How much does that list actually accomplish? If you look over his filter, how many people has he actually put real pressure on? He put some very weak pressure on hegeo, only after Mordanis pressured him first. He's been gunning for Mufaa, a very easy player to gun for since he's lurking like crazy. @ s0Lstice- Thank you for clearing up why you were suspicious of me. I'm still not sure you're town, but at the very least that clears up some of my suspicions. For now I'm lessening my focus on you and shifting it to ShiaoPi. ##unFOS: s0Lstice ##FOS: ShiaoPi | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
@ Mufaa- If you want me to change my vote for you, you better get in here and start posting. It's really hard to have good town play if even one person is lurking. ##Vote: Mufaa This is something I think everyone should keep in mind. We only have one player who is hardcore lurking. That means we have at least one mafia who is staying fairly active in the thread. I need some more time to think this line of thought through (What kind of active town benefits a mafia? What can we do to prevent that kind of town from happening?), but it's good to keep in mind when reading through a player's filter. | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
First you stated about me: Just to state the facts. His first few points were very summary-esque. I'm wary of these sorts of posts early in game as it means a player can conceal their views and reveal them at a later date when real discussion is happening. It gives the impression that he is contributing whereas he is actually delaying input so to clutter later on. The intention of my posts was to generate pressure and discussion. This being my first game, I felt that things such as the list I made and the pressure on sciberbia would be viewed as more threatening than they were actually taken. I believe s0Lstice used the term "weaksauce" to describe them, and looking back, I'm going to have to agree with him. In short, I think you're making a big deal out of some town play of mine that was admittedly less than stellar. The next part of your post states: he moves to pressure s0lstice. (after s0lstice posted, then removed his #FOS) in what i see as a defensive measure under the "rationale" that s0lstice should have continued with his pressure. it is my opinion that he did this to cement his 'innocence' by 'promoting' a more thorough pressuring in future. next. after his accusation of s0lstice (FOR ALTERNATING HIS #FOS TO QUICKLY) do you know what he does? His next post in his filter is moving his defensive #FOS against s0lstice (quite hypocritically i might add) onto another player (ShiaoPi). This next part is actually kind of funny, it was a reading comprehension error on my part, a reading comprehension error of his reading comprehension error. I thought it was crazy how flimsy his FOS was, I feel a bit stupid now that I realize what he was saying. Essentially, I did the exact same thing to him that he did to me. As for the last part of your post towards me: he avoids his next suspicion (ShiaoPi) and jumps on a bandwagon of voting against Mufaa. (which i'm fine with, except for the context its in) I feel that Miltonkram's play is quite scummy. I want you to know that I am still gunning for ShiaoPi. I hope we don't have to lynch Mufaa, but he needs to know that my vote for him will stand until he starts posting or I think he'll get modkilled/replaced. Right now, I'm going to continue pressuring ShiaoPi. Even if we don't lynch him today, our late game will be much better if we can get him to post something other than his wishy-washy defensive play. | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
I've already explained my line of reasoning. My pressure on s0Lstice was a mistake on my part, simple as that. I'm willing to switch my vote on Mufaa, since I think he will be replaced/modkilled. All people had been saying up to that point in time amounted to, "Mufaa, we'd really like to hear from you." I wanted to see if he would make a response to some real pressure. I think we can agree that voting for someone is the most pressure you can put on them. At the time I was trying to do two things at once, pressure ShiaoPi and pressure Mufaa. I guess I didn't make it clear what I was doing. Also, I hadn't considered this: ---snip Also, get your votes off Mufaa. He will be replaced/modkilled if he doesn't do crap. Otherwise, we can lynch him D2. He's guaranteed to be lynched D2 if he does pop in to vote, so I won't concern myself with him anymore. My top scumread is still ShiaoPi. Essentially, he plays scum exactly how I would. His entire D1 posts have been pretty wishy-washy and noncommittal, allowing him freedom later in the game because he hasn't actually tied himself strongly to the information or accusations in any of his posts. With that in mind let's look at his first post. + Show Spoiler + Just came back from university. First of all we should definetly go for a lynch, no-lynch is (at least in my opinion) utter nonsense. Regarding Lurkers, I believe that they should be put under suspicion especially in a 9 player setup. I was in the same game as mufaa and lurking screwed us over pretty badly in a 13 player game. I must say I really like release's approach until now, we won't get anything worthwhile from just being nice to each other. Pressuring is a great way to get some more information and should be utilizied. The only slightly suspicious thing until now was sciberbia's long post and his absence since then, but until he responds there is nothing to make of it. Here's what he does, he compliments the most active player early on (Release) and talks about playstyle. Then he adds some weak suspicions toward sciberbia. Suspicion that he can easily back down from, and that certainly isn't breaking any new ground. Wait, doesn't this sound a lot like another early post? + Show Spoiler + Release- I like the way you're starting out this game. If we are going to catch scum we need to be aggressive about it. Don't worry too much about the tone of your posts. sciberbia's post does seem a bit suspicious. He repeats his ideas several times in different ways to make it look like he's putting out more info than he actually is. It seems quite scummy to me. Mordanis- Don't get too offended by aggressive behavior. If mafia doesn't actually think that a little pressure will lead to a lynch, then why should they answer any questions at all? We need to make sure that people are held accountable to what they say. sciberbia- What do you have to say about the accusations pointed at you? There's quite a bit of fluffy information in your post. Let's try to keep the conversation more focused on who might be scum, everything else is secondary. That's right, his entire first post is a rehash of one of my first posts. A post I made before him. If my first post wasn't breaking any new ground, his certainly wasn't. It seems a good way to blend in with the crowd without sticking his neck out there. He goes on to immediately back down from his pressure with this post. + Show Spoiler + Maybe I should have rephrased my post on the suspicions towards you Sciberbia: I was not that much concerned about your absence but just on the amount of seemingly "useless" things within the post. Don't see anything wrong with your elaborations on it now. Here we get the first taste of ShiaoPi's tactic. He pressures someone and then states, "Oh, I wasn't actually pressuring you." It seems like a good way to blend in while also "contributing" as scum. This is just the first instance of his noncommittal aggression. Let's look at his suspicions of hegeo. + Show Spoiler + [quote]I am unsure what to make of hegeo. The one thing which seems suspicious to me is his timing after being called out, the other stuff could easily be bad townie or careful day 1 play. Seeing that I am getting flak for my style it is easy to see why he gets thoroughly investigated now. What stands out from his posts is the analytical part. It seems to be lacking solidity to make the longer posts which he does not really support (see: + Show Spoiler +) Basing from this statement he must himself believe to have solid cases going with his "wall of texts", but in my opinion they are not solid at all.[quote] Once again this is "suspicion" that he doesn't actually have to commit to, and he hopes he won't be held accountable for. I would ask you all this, who would be more damaging as scum? The actions I've taken in the game have all been actions that I've committed to. (barring the mistake I made with s0Lstice, but that was just me being dumb.) You can actually tie me to what I've written and hold me accountable later in the game, whereas ShiaoPi seems to have some sort of "escape clause" in almost every single one of his posts. The only thing he's been adamant about has been his FOS of s0Lstice, and that pressure has a built in escape to it, seeing as he can excuse himself by saying that s0Lstice had pressured him first. Anyway, what are people's thoughts on this? Seeing as I'll be away for an hour or two I'm going to go ahead and vote. ##unVote: Mufaa ##Vote: ShiaoPi | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
-Lurk until there is pressure on you -Respond to pressure with mostly defensive statements -When that doesn't work, begin to put counter-pressure on your attacker -Bandwagon on me once you see that I'm a prime lynch I'd post more direct analysis, but once again, time is running short. Everyone, I hope you can figure out why this is scummy activity in my eyes. If I get lynched today, I hope you keep this in mind. The pressure seems to be off ShiaoPi right now, so unless I can miraculously convince you all to vote for him I guess I'll have to switch my targets. | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
##unVote: ShiaoPi ##Vote: hegeo For the record, if you lynch me and see me flip town, that doesn't mean hegeo is mafia. Too much of his case has been circumstantial, and too much of it has been just a few vocal players tunneling him. | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Mafia + Mafia Why would a scum team link their names D1 of the game? I think we all agree that Mordanis and Release were the most vocal against hegeo, and that could mean they tunneled him because they saw him as a weak target that they wouldn't get much flak for going against. If they are both scum, this is the most likely explanation of their actions. However, I just don't see a good enough reason for scum to band together on D1. That's a short-sighted play that would come back to bite them in the ass later. Possibility: least likely. Townie + Townie If both players were indeed town, an explanation of their actions could be that they just weren't ever satisfied with hegeo's defense. Let's face it, hegeo did not do a good job of defending himself. If he had, I would be the one lynched and he'd still be alive. So far, besides their knee-jerk reactions to hegeo's post, I'd say that they both have had decent, but not great town play. The bad news is, they've both played really scummy ever since hegeo's big reveal. Possibility: still unlikely, but more likely than M + M. Townie + Mafia Here's how I think it happened. The townie player felt he had a good case against his percieved scum target, and was encouraged that others felt the same way. The scum player knew he wouldn't be the only one targeted when hegeo flipped town and thus pulled the trigger and kept pressure on him. Worst case scenario for the scum player is a 50/50 situation where both he and the townie player are under pressure. Possibility: most likely situation. That is my read on last night's events. The good news is I think we have the scum player in the worst possible situation. A 50/50 lynch is still better than a 2/7 lynch. I'm going to go over both Mordanis' and Release's filters to see what kind of a case can be made against them. I've been thinking a lot about these events and I think my analysis is pretty good. Thoughts on this anyone? | ||
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
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Miltonkram
United States310 Posts
Let me restate this plainly: I don't think both of you are mafia. I don't think both of you are town. I think one of you is mafia and one of you is town. I believe this for the reasons I stated in my last long post. On May 25 2012 08:13 Release wrote: ---snip Just answering the last part first: 2/7? You really think that a lynch is completely random? Trying to draw the town away from doing a real case on someone like you( who already has a substantial case) so they can get that 50/50 lynch? Remember D1: we had a 50/50 lynch (in the town's eyes, it was 100/0 because both seemed scummy, but my point is that there were 2 candidates). Stop trying to trick others with the same illusions that Hegeo did; it's what got him lynched. This is so full of shit and scum. No, of course I don't think lynching is completely random. I was shortening my reasoning because it wasn't the main thrust of my post. If we did just flip a coin deciding to lynch you or Mordanis, I say we'd have a 50/50 chance to hit mafia. We can do better than that though, with good analysis we'll find out which one of you is scum. On May 25 2012 08:13 Release wrote: ---snip And so what if we pressured him? He seemed scummy. We're supposed to pressure scummy players. If we didn't, we would have your dream random lynch scenario where a townie is more likely lynched. You would love that wouldn't you? Your case was the alternative to Hegeo's case. We chose him and we seemed to have forgotten about you. I haven't. If i'm still alive after the day post, you better watch yourself. ##FOS: Milton Holy crap, stop playing so defensively. I'm not even sure if you're the half of the duo that's scum. I'm just laying the groundwork for my analysis of your (you and Mordanis's) posting. Also stop labeling any analysis you disagree with as WIFOM. I think you may be the one who doesn't understand its definition. Since Release seems impervious to reason, I'll put this out to the rest of the town. I don't care if you think I'm scum or not, the points I made in my post were good ones. Do you disagree with the assumptions I'm making? If you do it's best to speak up now, because I plan on basing my later analysis on these assumptions. | ||
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