Surprisingly Normal Mini Mafia XI

It was an impulse post. When I saw that yomi voted for him, it triggered me. I played with yomi in a previous game, and I had to endure the aftermath of an overly aggressive play he made (more on this later). My reason was obviously unsubstantiated, + Show Spoiler +

I’ve alluded to before, and I’d like to state explicitly that I think no-lynch is a generally bad policy, with little exception. Other people have (whysomuch, lazermonkey) have made some points about this. It is very unlikely that by the deadline that town won’t have high-scum read targets to vote for. Sure, a mis-lynch would suck, but it’s not like we’re voting randomly. If there really aren’t clear scum choices, than we should no-lynch. This leads me to the next point, which is why I really think no-lynch is important.

More discusion = more info = better for town. If the town’s general consensus flirts too much with no-lynch, then it will encourage lurking.

The quality / quantity of information can vary drastically with a town that has a lot of votes and cases and from a town that has some votes, a few cases, and some no-lynches. It goes beyond who voted for who, it’s who voted for who and why they did so. People have to build cases to vote for people, and cases = more discussion.

People have mentioned meta-game elements, specifically yomi’s quick-post. Specifically,
Golden
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Pure SC2
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Both Golden and Pure SC2 cite yomi’s previous game, in which he played blantantly aggressively and voted early off of little (no) evidence. I know this, because I was in the same game yomi was in. His play severely impacted that game, and it was still on my mind in the beginning of this game.
What I find interesting however, is that both Golden and PureSC2 are making the beginnings of yomi’s town case FOR him, with the previous game serving as “meta-game evidence”. This is suspicious to me. They are beginning yomi’s defense case for him, why not let him make it? Further, if yomi decided to use this “meta-game evidence to make a case for himself eventually, I would be highly suspicious of yomi, because it could be a perfect mafia play. If other “townies” began the defense for yomi, it’d go down a lot better. However, I can’t make a claim against yomi because he really hasn’t said much. So, ##FOS: Golden, PureSC2.

Your filter consists of 1)lynch vs no lynch opinions, 2) defensive questioning, 3) a brief overview summary opinions on people. This shows me that although you been posting, you lack substance in your post. Your opinions on people are rather general, or they are merely in dull agreement with others. ##FOS

This is awesome for us, because not only did we already get one mafia, he was a roleblocker. I don’t know how many roles mafia get, but that was definitely a plus.
Info from votes to who voted for him, there was;
Veriat: (7): yomi, The_Zen_Man, WhySoMuch, Pure-SC2, Splinter[eP], Mordanis, O.Golden_ne. Important details include that veriat got the minimum 7/7 votes, and that the swing vote was a vote change golden made from aces to veriat. It seems unreasonable that golden was swing vote to knock veriat off just to gain town cred, as it’s not statistically favorable for mafia on a D1 lynch. For now, you have my town read Golden + Show Spoiler +

Looking at Veriat’s filter there’s not much to go off of. He has scum reads on thezenman, me, and jailbreaker. However, he makes no case against them, or (for zenman) a really weak case. In itself, there's so little posted it's hard to make anything of it.

Personally, I had him pegged as mafia, and I have re-evaluations to do. It’s confusing as to why the mafia chose yomi, he was a lurker, albeit with either good luck or gosu senses on veriat. However, it does give us something interesting, as one person did vote for him...

1) Only vote on yomi, and yomi was shot night cycle.
2) Posts don’t seem to have a lot of content, there’s a lot of summary and weak accusations/ questioning.
3) This quote in particular;

This was a decent amount of time before the lynch-veriat train really started rolling, jailbreaker tries to advocate against it. He doesn’t provide any case in favor of Veriat however, and just side-steps the issue.
4) And then this,

It’s like jailbreaker wants to let other people make cases for him, so that he can choose the safest one to vote for and thus remain safe.
4) Was on Veriat’s “scum” list. I”ll defer to whysomuch for this;
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I should clarify, I hadn’t intended to neither leave it at whysomuch nor unvoted, but I was unable to return to the deadline. (I’ll look at whysomuch again later in this post). Apparently my unvote wasn’t registered so I didn’t get targeted by nova(looks like aces didnt get modkilled either, so I would have been okay anyway?) When I did find time to check up, it was in the night cycle and it seemed fruitless to post anything then. In regards to what you said, I’ll point out that in one of my posts I state that my FoS ; you and golden were related to yomi, as in if yomi was mafia then I would pursue you two. As he isn’t, the point is moot. Also, if you looked carefully, I made those FoS before yomi even voted for veriat.


To this;

I said that because yomi voted for veriat in the very beginning. I thought it was unlikely yomi would have voted veriat in the beginning, because why choose a scum buddy when there were other lurkers to vote? Yomi was highly suspicious, and deserved this suspicion. He was lurking, HARD, and throwing out ##votes for other people to analyze. He could have easily been switching between townies, trying to confuse the town conversation.
I’ve been thinking of why they would shoot yomi (I have an idea, as described later), but I don’t know what to say about it “clearing” me. I can deny it, saying that it’d be foolish because it doesn’t clear me, it really incriminates me (I have nothing original now that yomi is green), but then we’ll start throwing WIFOM around and we’ll get nowhere. If you think it’s enough to vote for me, well there’s that.

Your first half analysis of whysomuch was rolling towards #FOSwhysomuch, but you conclude that he’s more likely an overly aggressive towny in your opinion. Is this because he voted for you/ is suspicious of you? It seems you’re trying to discredit him and his earlier posts, and as such his suspicions of you. I have my own opinions, but I was wondering if this was the point you were making.

In regards to my case against yomi, I don’t know what you mean by squirmy. But I would find it agreeable to say that when yomi flipped green, my case got shit on. There’s another post later, where I state that you and puresc2’s suspicions were really based on my suspicions of yomi being mafia, and since he wasn’t I no longer have suspicions against you two in regards to that.

This jumps out at me. Why bring this up, right after the mafia lynch? This may be what golden was referring to as “the champion” of veriat’s lynch.
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Also, he made a case against veriat and helped push his lynch. But quick-scum/town lists based on one or two ideas is messy. It’s more beneficial to take time looking at specifics and make cases (unless you’re mentioning something in a sort of passing way that you don’t want to forget), and then organize that info into lists of scum/town. It’s very confusing play,maybe just scummy town play.

I’m removing my suspicions from him now, for the case he made against Veriat. Its decent enough, and I don’t see any reason he would have, as mafia, to make such an extended case against Veriat, which contributed to the bandwagon to get veriat lynched.

A number of arguments have been made, and not much to add to them because he hasn’t been posting much. He, like other lurkers, should be pressured D2. What got the successful D1 lynch was from pressuring lurkers (yomi called out veriat for this very reason). We need to keep this up.

It’d be detrimental to name players, so to “all blue roles”. As I was reviewing yomi’s filter, something popped out to me;

This is only a thought, but the mafia may have been hoping for a lucky blue snipe. It makes sense, because yomi was semi-lurking (blue roles tend to play more cautiously to protect the blue role). It’s not concrete, but it’s a possibility. We’re already ahead of the mafia, so we don’t need blues to do anything reckless (i.e. claim)

As I was going through the first fourth or so of the filter, I mainly saw “we must lynch D1”, “i’m new to TL and its format”, “townies do this and mafia do this” and “villages’ wolves vs towns’ mafia”. All very confusing stuff, but also distracting stuff.

That was zen_man’s first post. whysomuch made a quick jab at him. This is similar to how yomi voted whysomuch in the beginning; for no real reason other than to progress discussion and get a read. But, it’s a disguised way for whysomuch to take a stance, with an “out”, because yomi already did this and he (with others) are confident that yomi’s play is town. (e.g. making his play town).

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I bring this up because, if whysomuch is mafia than he would have been in discussion with veriat. Meaning that voting for veriat was (probably) a unified decision to bus veriat.

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After veriat picked up his votes, panicked with 2 crappy posts, and had thezenman drop this hammer on him;
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after, whysomuch’s next post is this;
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Firstly we have more (distraction) clarification/responses to the nomenclature and how to post on TL! Then, the point of the post (bolded). 2 things, 1)”you’re mafia zen_man i’m done explaining!” (look back yourselves, it’s a relatively weak case against zen_man) and 2)a self-contradiction (italicized).
I can’t really make sense of the next part without getting into WIFOM, but whysomuch vote changes to Aces(now our marvellosity) and then back to Veriat.* Veriat’s pretty safe still with only (like 3-4?) votes.

This is suspicious to me, because 1)whysomuch posts this as an after-he-voted post and 2)he’s so unpushy of veriat. If veriat was a real mafia read, why so weak? the push against zen_man was much harder, with less reason to be suspicious then too. It’s like setting Veriat up for a redemption post, or trying to put his post in a more-newb less-scummy light.
However, there’s nothing Veriat says further from about the time he voted for zen_man all the way up to his lynch. Perhaps veriat was too busy to make a play off of whysomuch’s assist, or he just didn’t care to play anymore, or he openly told mafia to bus him. We can’t really know, and veriat died in silence.
One redeeming point is that whysomuch (lightly) pushed Golden to switch his vote to veriat. This is with a grain of salt, as veriat could have asked whysomuch to bus him at this point already (assuming they planned it after this point).

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If I had to bus my own mafia, I had better get town cred from it right? Also, completely drops his case on zen_man for voting veriat. It must have been a weak case to begin with, so no problem.

or so has more confusion/distraction posts, characterized by “spew analysis” (short comments about most (if not all) players) and this
+ Show Spoiler +. It seems suspicious, because Jailbreaker was called out for a number of things, primarily lurking. Unfortunately he didn’t post anything substantial, and so he was lynched. But whysomuch is content with voting jailbreaker, not so much for lurking, but for the point above. He adamantly is against lynching splinter, because we shouldn’t lynch lurkers. This is suspicious to me because 1) Jailbreaker and Splinter both had to answer for their lurking 2) why not defend jailbreaker, he’s lurking as well (and doesn’t post anything until he’s pretty much already voted to be lynched), 3)what makes splinter special?
This is where things get interesting, because splinter is modkilled and flipped green. Now mafia has achieved a mislynch, (unfortunately 2 cause of modkill) and Whysomuch looks good for defending splinter. Obviously whysomuch couldn’t have known that splinter would be mod-killed, but the evidence would be there for later. It’s suspicious to me, because I can’t see why he would defend splinter and not jailbreaker(at all) in that scenario.

This part is just a hunch, but if whysomuch is really mafia, then having all of our town lists would allow easy targets for the night shots. It seems relatively difficult to have a lot of convincing, for-sure, townies at once(as is it seems relatively difficult to have a lot of high rated scum at once on a list). But having 1-2 “town” reads across multiple lists makes shooting easier. I wouldn’t have been so suspicious, but whysomuch did post his townlist and ask others during a night cycle.