EPTI'm a cop you idiot mafia
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On April 13 2012 23:46 Bluelightz wrote: GUYS...... We have to beat Purgatory Mafia's record with a faster day phase than 20 minutes. That is definitely not a record. Edit: http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=127445 | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
There are pro's and con's to each claiming + counter-claim, and not claiming at all. At the moment I'm leaning towards it being better to not claim. Keep in mind that barring a hero medic protect, we are in constant lylo no matter what. I'm at work right now, but will be home in just over 2 hours. I would like to discuss this in depth. After typing that, it's possible that claiming IS the best call because it forces a 50-50 lynch, which is decent. I'm not sure yet though, so hold off until we discuss. Stick around for two hours(or 2.5) though and I'll be here. | ||
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Radfield
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On April 14 2012 08:46 Blazinghand wrote: That doesn't make his idea wrong though. Look, here's what's gonna happen D1: we'll be at lylo. Our cop needs to claim NOW, and get medic protection, and NOT call who he is checking. Scenario A (cop does not claim): We enter D1 and the mafia has possibly shot the cop. The cop can claim at this point and we have 2 confirmed town, or 1 confirmed town and 1 confirmed scum. If the cop got shot, though, we're flying blind. Scenario B (cop DOES claim): We enter D2 and the mafia cannot have shot the cop, because the medic protected him overnight. THE COP CANNOT HAVE BEEN SHOT, meaning we have 2 confirmed town, or 1 confirmed town and 1 confirmed scum. I think that even though it's gonna be LYLO tomorrow, the cop should claim, and the medic should just protect him. If the cop claims there will be a counter-claim. Make no mistake about that. That means the medic DOES NOT have to protect one of the cops, because mafia cannot shoot the real cop, as it would expose their counter-claiming member. There will certainly be no confirmed town. Any medic claim will likely be counter-claimed as well, which again puts us at 50-50, instead of 60-40. I'm rushing here and can't quite get my thoughts straight on paper, but there is an optimal play in here somewhere. | ||
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Radfield
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On April 14 2012 08:53 Blazinghand wrote: Ok. Bear in mind that the night is pretty short (only 10 hours left). I'll be around for some time. The only reason I brought this up again was that an N0 claim could be more advantageous than a D1 claim-- mafia has no RB. Well, you might be right that a N0 claim is better than a D1 claim. I'm just not sure yet. | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Lets assume our cop claims right off the bat, one of two things will happen. Mafia will either counter-claim, or will leave it be. N0 Cop Claim + Counter Claim: both survive the night, we have to lynch one of them on Day 1. Cop is unkillable because that would leave us a free mafia. Medic is free to protect anyone, giving him a 1 in 4 chance of protection instead of a 1 in 6. N0 Cop Claim + No Counter Claim: Medic is forced to protect Cop. Cop has a 1 in 6 chance of finding scum. Assuming he does not find scum, we have 2 confirmed town, 2 scum, 1 doc and 1 townie. 50-50. If we have the Doctor claim, mafia is forced to cc or give us 2/3 chance of hitting scum. A doctor counter claim gives us a 50-50 again. No chance of a medic save in this scenario though. Assuming no claim, that leaves doc free to protect whomever they want. Cop has a chance of getting shot. Day 1 cop claims his results, and we have the whole scenario over again, either counter claim or no counter claim. I think cop claiming right now is superior in every way. Thoughts? Agree or Disagree? | ||
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Radfield
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On April 14 2012 09:29 Radfield wrote: N0 Cop Claim + Counter Claim: both survive the night, we have to lynch one of them on Day 1. Cop is unkillable because that would leave us a free mafia. Medic is free to protect anyone, giving him a 1 in 4 chance of protection instead of a 1 in 6. Actually, Mafia might shoot the cop in this scenario, as it's a guaranteed kill. It exposes the counter claiming mafia, but that is not terrible I suppose as it's still lylo the following day. At any rate the Doctor would get another shot at a save N1, only with increased odds. So I suppose the Cop is safe. | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On April 14 2012 09:36 Tunkeg wrote: Lie, I didnt go to bed, I am the real cop! There you have it! Is that a counter claim for real? Tunkeg vs Blazinghand? | ||
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Radfield
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On April 14 2012 09:39 Tunkeg wrote: I don't care what you think  We get the one for one trade on you and me, so no problem. I allready sent my night check in on you though BH, so it was a good move to claim cop, cause I would have figured you out by tomorrow. Now I change my check There is no one for one trade. There is either a successful lynch and we keep player, or a mislynch and we lose. | ||
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Radfield
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Radfield
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Right now after an extremely cursory glance I have deduced that Blazinghand is probably the scum. I'd say at least a 56% chance. | ||
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Radfield
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On April 14 2012 09:43 Blazinghand wrote: All I need to do is find your scumbuddy and town wins this ez. I think I know what's going to happen here though: You're gonna claim you checked the guy who you're shooting N0. He'll wind up dead and you won't "give" any info to town, and if the medic saves him, you're just corroborating an already-confirmed town info. Yeah, the best part of this is that the scummy has a chance of fucking up the results in the morning. | ||
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Radfield
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On April 14 2012 10:20 johnnywup wrote: EBWOP: That's enough to make me confident you're scum. Scum. ##vote Tunkeg That is some poor poor scumhunting, and an even poorer reason for a vote. NOT TO MENTION WE WILL LIKELY BE AT LYLO TOMORROW, SO DROPPING YOUR VOTE FOR SOME BUNK REASON IS OUTRAGEOUS. /yelling No one votes tomorrow, and I do mean no one(I suppose BH and Tunkeg can vote for each other). Feel free to talk about who you WILL vote, but don't actually place the vote. A quick hammer is extremely bad for us. On April 14 2012 10:01 Bluelightz wrote: I dont fucking have an idea on what to say but my logic says this Tunkeg scum => Radfield Tunkeg scum team BH scum => BH & ??? Scum team. How am I linked to Tunkeg? Because I am 56% sure that Blazinghand is scum? If you want the truth I'm creeping up near 60% at the moment, but I still haven't done an actual reread. | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
Lets first consider mafia motivations for this game. You KNOW that it's all about the cop, and counter-claiming the cop. If I rolled mafia, first thing I'm doing is discussing which of us is going to claim as the cop. Also consider this: mafia want to be the first out of the gate to claim cop, because whoever claims second generally looks like a pretty lame counter-claimer. So mafia will try to be johnny-on-the-spot and snipe the claim before the actual cop. Anything that gives you a measure of credibility is worth it, considering one has to assume this game will be decided on the slightest misstep. Hence mafia will be looking for an excuse to claim early. I'd like to talk first about why I think Blazinghand is scum, then I will talk about why I think Tunkeg is the actual Cop. Those two points are mostly exclusive. There are several reason I think Blazinghand is scum and first is his demeanor. First is his response to me on page 3: + Show Spoiler + On April 14 2012 08:46 Blazinghand wrote: That doesn't make his idea wrong though. Look, here's what's gonna happen D1: we'll be at lylo. Our cop needs to claim NOW, and get medic protection, and NOT call who he is checking. Scenario A (cop does not claim): We enter D1 and the mafia has possibly shot the cop. The cop can claim at this point and we have 2 confirmed town, or 1 confirmed town and 1 confirmed scum. If the cop got shot, though, we're flying blind. Scenario B (cop DOES claim): We enter D2 and the mafia cannot have shot the cop, because the medic protected him overnight. THE COP CANNOT HAVE BEEN SHOT, meaning we have 2 confirmed town, or 1 confirmed town and 1 confirmed scum. I think that even though it's gonna be LYLO tomorrow, the cop should claim, and the medic should just protect him. On April 14 2012 08:51 Radfield wrote: I want to discuss this Tunkeg, but NO ONE claim yet. There are pro's and con's to each claiming + counter-claim, and not claiming at all. At the moment I'm leaning towards it being better to not claim. Keep in mind that barring a hero medic protect, we are in constant lylo no matter what. I'm at work right now, but will be home in just over 2 hours. I would like to discuss this in depth. After typing that, it's possible that claiming IS the best call because it forces a 50-50 lynch, which is decent. I'm not sure yet though, so hold off until we discuss. Stick around for two hours(or 2.5) though and I'll be here. On April 14 2012 08:53 Blazinghand wrote: Ok. Bear in mind that the night is pretty short (only 10 hours left). I'll be around for some time. The only reason I brought this up again was that an N0 claim could be more advantageous than a D1 claim-- mafia has no RB. His response to me is deferential and defensive. He gives an excuse for why he brought it up, when no excuse was needed. There was nothing even really wrong with his post, except for the fact that he completely leaves off mentioning a counter-claim scenario. How can you entertain the idea of a cop claiming but not notice the obvious counter-claim scenario. It's conspicuous in it's absence. Fact is, I wasn't even responding to BH, I was talking to Tunkeg, as you can see by my next post. Second is the contradiction between this: On April 14 2012 09:31 Blazinghand wrote: I agree strongly. In this setup the cop will basically HAVE to claim D1 since we'll be at lylo, and claiming N0 is superior to claiming D1. Guaranteeing the cop surviving the night is worth it. I am the cop. and this: On April 14 2012 09:45 Blazinghand wrote: See, this is what doesn't make sense to me. This game clearly is about the cop claim. It's even called "I'm the cop you idiot." Let me explain MY thought process up until my claim: "whether or not I claim is important. I will discuss it with other players until it's clear what the optimal strategy is, then I will execute it immediately". I don't really understand what you were thinking, adding that big about claims to the discussion then bailin out hard. wouldn't a cop be more worried about the implications of his role? Wouldn't, a scum player, in fact, try to lay some groundwork for his claim but not want to? Which of us has played like he wants the town to win? Keep in mind that Blazinghand's claim came apprx 2 minutes after I posted my analysis of 'to claim or not to claim'. If his strategy was truly to 'discuss it with other players until it's clear what the optimal strategy is", he most certainly did NOT do that. What he did was leap at the first opportunity to claim cop that he had. There was basically no discussion of the pros and cons or potential merits of claiming or not. Just me stating that one was better than the other, when I had JUST posted that I was feeling muddled about the potential cost-benefit analysis and was asking for people's thoughts. Remember that mafia are looking for a reason to claim first, and my post is an easy excuse. In this post BH also states the the game is "clearly about the cop", yet in his initial post he completely fails to talk about counter-claims, which is bizarre. From there on out it's just a shoving match between Tunkeg and Blazinghand. The crux of my argument truly comes down to the contradiction. Blazinghand claims that his whole mindset was to discuss and wait for the optimal strategy, and then claim. However he waits only for my opinion, and then claims. But what if I am scum and being intentionally misleading!? BH gives no thought to that(because he knows i am town), but immediately claims in thread. I hold that the immediacy of that claim is due to not wanting to be the second claimer, because BH KNOWS there will be two claimants. Tunkeg on the other hand, I have a fairly town read on. First his opening post shows he cares about and has thought about the game. It includes things such as medic save percentages, which is something that isn't an obvious pro/con at first glance. His post also reads like a cop just begging for someone to say "Hey Cop! TIme to claim!". He then follows it up with trying to encourage discussion, which doesn't happen. Second, Tunkeg claims he first sent in a check on Blazinghand, and then changed once the CC happened. He follows up by saying: Why did I pick you for my first nightaction check - Well I consider Radfield and WBG the best players in the game. I assume scum kills one of them if both aren't scum, and I therefor chose the one I consider third, which is you. This is actually pretty good logic, and shows that either he has been thinking about his check, or is just really good at making shit up on the fly. Lets compare and contrast BH and Tunkeg's claim-posts: On April 14 2012 09:31 Blazinghand wrote: I agree strongly. In this setup the cop will basically HAVE to claim D1 since we'll be at lylo, and claiming N0 is superior to claiming D1. Guaranteeing the cop surviving the night is worth it. I am the cop. On April 14 2012 09:36 Tunkeg wrote: Lie, I didnt go to bed, I am the real cop! There you have it! One is well structured, with blue font and a couple well reasoned sentanced. The other is slapdash and spontaneous. Speaking as a player who has played as scum before, I would NEVER make a post like Tunkegs as a fake counter claim. My post would look exactly like BH's. Safe, Neutral and most important: First. On April 14 2012 09:38 Blazinghand wrote: Well, that was quick. So you went to bed, but you were actually here watching the thread so you could counter claim the cop, huh. I know you're scum. BH accuses Tunkeg of being scummy for not going to bed, and returning to the thread. However this is the exact opposite of typical scum play. When you say you're going to bed as scum, you go to bed. It's when you say you are going to write an analysis or something is when you actually don't follow through. Town players are constantly drawn back to the thread, while mafia players are constantly looking for reasons to leave it(usually). Look at my posting this game, I stated I was going to wait until I got home, but then just kept posting from work at the expense of my work(hint: it's because I am town). Look at the demeanor of each player. Tunkeg seems relaxed and come-what-may. BH seems wound tightly and defensive. I'd like to write more, but frankly I'm tired. Here's hoping the medic sees me along to Day 1 (I doubt it though! ).Additionally(upon refreshing the page) I think the rolecop thing is likely a red herring. The OP states this: "Cops can investigate someone's alignment every night". Which means that no, Tunkeg will not be able to get back 'medic' as a result(which I had thought). However, I think one would only know that if you read the OP carefully because.... It doesn't actually say anything in the cop PM! Blazinghand states this: On April 14 2012 11:08 Blazinghand wrote: That's interesting, because my checks only return as town or scum... And he states it as if that information is written into his role PM and not just publicly available. As we know, the role PMs only state this: "Welcome to Idiot Mafia. You are a Cop/Vanilla Town/Doctor/Mafia Goon". So it's perfectly understandable that Tunkeg could mistake how his role works, particularly with me stating the same thing(and him only agreeing with me). Again, I think it more likely that a scum player will be meticulous about the fine detail of the fake claim, and not unlikely that the actual cop might miss that blurb. I'd give about 70-75% chance right now that BH is scum. | ||
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Radfield
Canada2720 Posts
On April 14 2012 11:36 wherebugsgo wrote: BH and Tunkeg CC each other, yeah? On April 14 2012 11:40 wherebugsgo wrote: so he's a liar? There are no rolecops in this setup You busy or something bugs? It's only 6 pages..... | ||
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Radfield
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I had you at hello BH. | ||
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On April 14 2012 19:38 Bluelightz wrote: Presto I'm town. Last scum somewhere between jwup for voting tunkeg, or rad/you depending who dies tonight. So what you're saying is that Dirkzor is probably Town? | ||
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Radfield
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