EPTHi TL Mafia Forum
Newbie Mini Mafia IX
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Pure-SC2
United Kingdom1440 Posts
Hi TL Mafia Forum | ||
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I think it's important to remember that this is a newbie game. From my observing of the last few newbie games, it seems everyone is quick to jump on newbie townie mistakes and make a scum read, and this gives the mafia a good chance to capitalise on the confusion and get an easy town lynch. I think it's important to bare this in mind when building cases, especially in the early stages where we have very little information to work with. @Nova, I agree with lurker lynch on Day 1, and am looking forward to seeing some posting activity. | ||
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On April 14 2012 23:55 Nova_Terra wrote: Yeah so thats pretty much what i said with more fluff. If you are going to agree with someone agree with them and move onto something else instead of posting a 1 paragraph flufffest like the above post. It's day 1, only a few posts in. I don't think jumping on people for what you consider fluff at this point is a good way to get the communication flowing. Give people a chance to see the day has started, let them get their initial thoughts and positions out there and then we might have something to work with. There is likely to be some repetition early on, but it's all we have to work with right now. If it continues, by all means I think you should call it out. | ||
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I think you should focus on your own contributions at this stage rather than repeating the same fluff line over and over, as all I see is someone creating a prescence for themselves without actually contributing. | ||
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@BlueyD - As it's been 24 hours with no post yet, I agree with your vote on era. ##Vote:era @era - What do you think of Nova's posts so far? | ||
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I do think it's odd that he wouldn't have read the rules (it's clearly stated on the front page). I'd like to see him add more to his very short filter. @Solohan - how do you respond to Nova reading your first post to be scummy? | ||
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Those that have posted and contributed very little so far, and who really need to add something asap in order to not fall under suspicion: Macheji Therapist. oneplus And, era. Era still hasn't posted, and is looking likely to be modkilled/replaced at this stage. I'll see if there is anything from him later in the day, and if not will remove my vote on him as no point wasting a vote on someone who is going to be modkilled. | ||
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I may be missing something, but I don't see how no lynches are possible? Voting is mandatory, and everyone must vote. That's how I interpret the rules anyway. Hopefully this can be clarified after Lazer's question. @oneplus - you have been lurking for quite some time now. What do you think about TheRavensName's stance on possibly lynching one of the people who've called for a no lynch vote? We need to hear from you. ##Vote: oneplus @Nova - Who is your most suspicious read so far? @Therapist. There is a lot that can be learned from a day 1 lynch. It just might take another day or two for the pieces to fit together. The more discussion we have from everyone, the more we can learn from a day 1 lynch. Which is why we need to put as much pressure as possible on the lurkers. So far I'm only getting the slightest scum reads from two people, and have nothing to base a case on. I'm hoping the activity will improve now after a quiet patch - it seems most people have checked in recently which is a good start. | ||
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## Unvote The case against Nova_Terra: - Nova_Terra's overly emphasised townie position: The case begins prior to the game even starting. Nova (who has been scum in previous games - I'd recommend a review of Newbie Mini Mafia VII ) is quick to distance himself and reinforce his town stance prior to the game even starting: Im awful town, so i need to work at it during my last newbie game (aka this one) He's telling us he's awful town, and that he will be working on it during this game. He is trying to reinforce his town position before the game has even started. One the game starts, his first post includes this line: Okay, thank god, not mafia :D This immediately made me suspicious, as I don't understand why someone who had received a town role would need to state this. The only motive I can determine for stating this is scummy. Nova said the following in response to Daymor who questioned this: I said that because ive been mafia the past two games and i didnt feel like dealing with the stress this time around. Again you try to distance yourself from the fact you were mafia in previous games ("you didn't feel like dealing with the stress this time around") however you have no choice over that. You may or may not have been given a role as mafia or town. I find the wording you used here to be very strange and is not the response I would've expected to Daymor's question. - Nova_Terra's posting without contributing: On its own I wouldn't say this means anything, and it's something I posted about earlier. But in combination with a few other things it becomes more significant. When you do a review of Nova_Terra's early filter, essentially he repeats the same stance he has on fluff posting, complains about lack of activity and votes/unvotes a few times. This is done over 14 posts, and makes him look like the most active person in the thread, but if you actually looks at what is included in all those posts, he is actually contributing very little. I find this to be mildly suspicious and it felt like he was trying to position himself as a town leader without actually contributing. - Nova_Terra's baseless accusation of Solohan50: I must admit I didn't look into this when it was initially posted, and it was only after a complete filter review that I really began questioning Nova's behaviour here. Nova stated the following: Also I find Solohan50s first post to be scummy. Interesting. Ok, what else does Nova say about this? Also I'm going to let Solohan50 find out what i find scummy about his own post and do something about it. If a vanilla townie looks at someones post and finds it scummy, theoretically another vanilla townie should be able to do the same. Im not gonna tell you how to defend yourself. So if I read this correctly, Nova finds Solohan50s first post scummy, and that because he's a vanilla townie and finds it scummy, another vanilla townie should be able to do the same. Right. I'm a vanilla townie, so let's look at Solohan50's first post for the smoking gun. On April 15 2012 00:46 Solohan50 wrote: Yeah, lynching lurkers isn't a terrible idea (it's not spectacular either though), especially if you make it known ahead of time. That (should) inspire everyone to post at least a little bit, giving us more information on Day 1 and hopefully leading to better lynches. With any luck though, everyone will be active and we can avoid having to lynch a lurker. If the lurker that gets lynched Day 1 is Town, then we gain almost no information, because they haven't posted anything. tl:dr Post, people! My read on Solohan50's first post. He has stated his thoughts on lurker lynching (not a terrible idea, but doesn't really love it either). He likes the fact you can use it to put pressure on people to post day 1, which will hopefully lead to a better (which I read as more informed) lynch. He then goes on to say lynching a townie that hasn't posted anything provides almost no information. Ok, so that's my read on his post. I've gone through it several times and don't feel like I'm missing anything here. It seems like a positive townie approach to me for a first post. What is it that Nova sees that I don't? What is his motivation for calling Solohan50 out based on this? I don't see a townie motivation for this, further increasing my suspicion. Nova also said the following: EBWOP: Same with His second post which pretty much is in the middle of the discussion and just asks a question instead od adding to said discussion Solohan50's second post asked a question on No Lynches. He also asked this question pre-game so doesn't look like it's something he decided on bringing up after he received his role PM. There has obviously been some confusion around no lynch since this game started (I felt like the rules were clear but I guess since it wasn't explicitly stated it has caused confusion), and based on that (and the subsequent discussions and clarification) I don't think his question is suspicious. *** I will add in relation to this that Solohan50 hasn't contributed a lot since, but in terms of this case against Nova_Terra it doesn't apply, as I'm referring to Nova's on Solohan50's first posts. Solohan50's lurky behaviour should be looked at seperately. Continuing on.... - Nova_Terra's very defensive responses to oneplus: This has happened since I did my filter review, and I haven't had a chance to go through this in as much detail as I'd like, but I have work to be done. I may re-visit this later if I see anything more after a further review. Nova claims an OMGUS reaction reaction to oneplus, which I don't really see. Oneplus has his suspicions of Nova based on his own read, and it would be good for him to elaborate more on this. However the point I focused on was the way Nova reacted. The defensive tone of his responses definitely do not sound like town, and the only motivation I can see for him posting that way is scummy. - Nova_Terra's possible accomplices: Based on my filter review, the two most likely accomplices to Nova_Terra: Lazermonkey and Crossfire99. The case against these two isn't strong, but I would recommend reading through their filter and looking at the way they support Nova on Solohan50. Also, if you look at the interaction between Nova and Lazer against oneplus, it is also very defensive and nature and shows them supporting each other once again. I think this adds to my suspicion of Lazer who, other than his blind support of Nova's stance against Solohan, has seemed like a good contributing townie. - Final thoughts on Nova_Terra: After going through all this, and reviewing Nova's filter looking at him posting as a townie, and posting as scum, the only motivation I can see for his approach thus far (on areas where he has contributed) is scum. This makes me as confident as I can be that he is a good target to vote on for day 1. ## Vote: Nova_Terra Final thoughts on oneplus - I agree on him being a bad townie, and he has certainly been targeted by Nova_Terra, which seems to be a good motivation for scum to target him and in a sense, further backs up my suspicions on Nova. So what do you all think? If you don't agree, where do you think my reasoning is wrong? How do you read Nova_Terra based on your own review of his behaviour and filter? | ||
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The fact that he continues in the same way once the game has started is why I pointed this out (and not that I think he knew prior to the game starting that he was going to roll mafia). | ||
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Minimal contributors at this stage, and they are either absent, or heavily lurking: Solohan Macheji TheRavensName If you don't see any merit in my case against Nova_Terra (and by association, Lazermonkey and Crossfire99 - and please explain why, and what you think of my reads), then voting on one of the above is as good an alternative for a day 1 lynch vote in my opinion. | ||
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On April 16 2012 21:20 Daymor wrote: EBWOP: @ Pure-SC2 I probably should have included this in my last post also. But another post from Nova that is bugging me is; First of all I have no idea as to who this post was aimed at, maybe Therapist? But to me this post gives me a bad vibe. It seems like quite an aggressive defense (in particular the first two lines), and the tone seems that of exasperation or aggression. I don't think you mentioned the post in your case, but what kind of impression does that post leave you with? Thanks for highlighting this Daymor, I did read the post when I did my filter review, but as I wasn't reading it "in-line" with the thread, I didn't look at the context, just the tone. And the tone is very defensive. After a review, I believe this post was in response to TheRavensName, who pointed out that he thought Nova was rather lynch happy - which at that point was 100% true as he was "pressure" voting without actually adding anything himself (part of the 14 initial posts he made which I commented on in my initial case against Nova). His response to this doesn't calmly state the nature of his pressure voting, but is a very defensive post and again he relates it back to the fact that he was scum in a previous game and how he's playing it different this time. This just adds to my initial suspicions. | ||
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The comments I made about your posts before the game started were expanded on in my EBWOP. They are applicable because you were already trying to distance yourself from your previous mafia roles, which is fine. But, then you continued using that same approach once the game started which immediately rang scummy to me. You haven't claimed to be a town leader, but from the outset of the day you placed yourself as the post monitor, telling us who was posting fluff, and how hard you were going to be on them, re-iterating the lack of activity (without contributing). That comes across to me as someone who is trying a little too hard to appear active. You already have my thoughts on that. Regarding your comment towards oneplus: Oneplus posted no real reason to suspect me that was good. That sounds a lot like you in regards to your suspicious of Solohan50, don't you think? We're still waiting for this insightful explanation as to why his first post was scummy. I've re-read oneplus's filter and agree with the assessment made by Lorant, that oneplus obviously doesn't speak english natively and as such his posts take a bit more reading. Even so, I can see that he does provide some reasoning as to why he suspects you: - Notes that Lazer and Nova are very firm to lynch someone - Picks up on the fact that Nova constantly refers to mafia role in previous games - Highlights Novas over reactive defensive posting to his suspicions - Picks up on the association between Nova and Lazer that I noticed also. * This is significantly more reasoning than you've given for your suspicions against Solohan50. Also, sick connection case. Nothing quite like suspecting people because they share a similar view in early game. It's not just a similar view, Lazer (and to a lesser extent Crossfire) supported you in your suspicions of Solohan50 without one shred of reasoning, just like you. Rather than offer any reasoning as to why you think there is no association between you, or even offering your reasoning for suspicions on Solohan, you take a further defensive stance without offering anything. At this stage, I don't have a scum read on Crossfire, only noted the association. I'll be looking at Lazer more closely as he has several things in his filter now that tend towards scum. Also, When did this go from lynching Lurkers to voting for people who actually contribute and provoke discussion? because you cant disagree that voting for someone who is creating discussion is a terrible idea with the state of the current town. For me, this occurred when I was able to build a case I had a reasonably high level of confidence in. Which is quite a sensible approach if you think about it. And voting for someone who is suspicious (for several reasons) is a great idea if you have that read on day 1. Using the fact that you've created discussion as a reason not to lynch you is not a defence. Also i love how everyone is jumping on the sick bandwagon. really good play This just sounds anti-town to me. I reviewed everyone's filter, and when I looked at my notes afterwards, I had you as the most suspicious based on the reasons already stated. I noticed that in the time I'd put that together, Oneplus and Daymor has posted a similar read. | ||
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Nova's made two comments regarding Solohan's second post. EBWOP: Same with His second post which pretty much is in the middle of the discussion and just asks a question instead od adding to said discussion My point about the second post is that he was here, and instead of adding to the discussion he just asks a question (that he had already asked in beginning). Solohan's second post: Are No Lynches even allowed in this game? If they're not, it's a bit of a moot point. - This was in direct response to Crossfire99's post before his, which was talking about no lynches on day 1. His post does add to what was being discussed at that very moment. It doesn't seem scummy in the slightest. @Nova_Terra - I've reviewed your analysis of Solohan50's first post. I don't understand your reasoning, it's his first post, he's stating his opinion, why is having an opinion that someone else has had bad? He seems to get across quite clearly to me what he thinks, and I provided my interpretation of that in my original case against you. @BlueyD - I notice in your analysis of my case against Nova you didn't mention his aggresively defensive stance, which has been used against three people at least so far. This is not generally considered townie behaviour and was a key part of what led me to raising a case against Nova. When you add all the elements together, I asked myself what the motivation for his posts were. Based on my review, and subsequent case, if Nova is town, he is a terrible townie (3 people finding suspicious behaviour for different reasons in the space of a day). I believe he's scum, and unless anything more comes to light will keep my vote on him. | ||
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In the space of 12 hours, Nova's tone has changed completely. From aggressive defense (when he was only aware oneplus suspected him), to a long period of silence and then muted responses to my initial case, to a reasonably patient defense that seemed reasonable but didn't really cover off or satisfy my case against him, but definitely won some people over. I still have him pegged as scum, especially after his classic scum slip. Here is his quote: At this point, can i ask all non me voters and me voters to switch over to either Crossfire or Solohan50? otherwise, im dead for sure and its damn hard to read anhing from a bunch of 1 votes. - What he meant to say was "switch over to either oneplus or Solohan50", but for some reason said Crossfire instead. Why would he have said Crossfire? Because Crossfire is his scum ally, and he was in discussions with Crossfire at the time he posted. This is the most classic case of a scum slip possible. Now how did Nova respond to this? Did he say a correction straight away? Nope. He didn't say a thing until TheRavensName commented on it, saying it was strange. Nova's response: Yep it looks hella weird. probably because my mood changed from pissed to hopeful in a space of like 30 seconds That is a damning as it gets. Crossfire was around at this time as well, because he was posting in the thread also. I stand by my case against Nova, and I add what I've posted above to it. In addition to this, in my initial case I commented that I believed his accomplises were Lazermonkey and Crossfire. I'm even more convinced of this now. Look at Lazermonkeys filter around the time I made my case against Nova and linked him to Lazer. Lazer vote flips in an absolutely classic attempt to distance himself from his scum partner. They then go into a back and forth about it, further attempting to distance themselves, but what do you know - they both have their votes on oneplus. As does Crossfire. When it looked safe to bandwagon oneplus, they did it. I want to go into Lazer's posts in more detail, and I will if I get the chance tomorrow. But the filter is there for you to read it, and I encourage you to. I've had a brief read through Crossfire's filter and the last bunch of posts are an absolute mess. He seems the least scummy of the three, but Nova's scum slip convinced me I was on the right track. oneplus is town. I'm convinced of it, and you've bandwagoned onto it and played right into the mafia's hand. | ||
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On April 16 2012 18:51 Lazermonkey wrote: I'm convinced that oneplus is a townie atm. His posts are far too stupid in order to be a scum. He might not understand it himself, but he is actually screaming to get lynched atm. Please think about what you piost in the future, if you really are a townie. ... However, now he's voting to lynch him. I want to go through Lazers posts in more detail but don't really have the time so I'm just going to quote the most telling parts right now. | ||
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On April 17 2012 06:41 TheRavensName wrote: Now I find your vote strange. You haven't posted anything aside from this really. Any explanation for the vote? Completely agree with you here TheRavensName. @Macheji - you need to explain why you voted for Nova. You have been absent, and turn up right before the deadline so you had better speak up. | ||
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It's a sad night, knowing an innocent townie was lynced and that it could have been prevented. I've spent some time reviewing how oneplus ended up getting lynched and have the following analysis. The initial pressure vote on oneplus - voted in order to get more post activity: - Pure-SC2 (Pressure vote - removed later when I made my case against Nova and voted for him) - BlueyD (Pressure vote - removed but stated he was still suspicious, moved vote to TheRavensName as he was lurking) ======= Following these votes, oneplus identifies a link between Lazermonkey and Nova which provokes a strong reaction from them both and a very interesting back and forth conversation occurs here. I'd recommend everyone re-read this knowing now that oneplus is a townie. It was after this exchange that I posted my case against Nova, and had independently identified a link between Lazer and Nova. Once the dust settled on Lazermonkeys quick vote flip onto Nova (following my case and association between Nova and Lazer), he initiates the vote that leads to oneplus's lynching. ======= The votes on oneplus that lead to his lynching: - Lazermonkey (April 17 2012 04:04): This is the initial vote on oneplus following the pressure vote. Summary of his reasoning is: - Oneplus gets super mad accusing both him and Nova with no reasoning (Ed: he quotes oneplus saying that Nova's defending doesn't make sense at all, something I agree with. KEYNOTE: In Lazer's post he responds to this quote as if oneplus said it to him, when he actually said it to Nova. Why is he responding to something said to Nova? This post needs further analysis). - That oneplus will think of him and Nova as scum regardless of what they say - Quotes FourFace/Lorant's bizarre purposefully silly post (which was from his smurf account) as evidence that other people think oneplus is strange. (Ed. Lorant, did you think oneplus was strange?) - Concludes that he is not sure whether oneplus is bad or scum, makes an association between oneplus and Lorant and states that lynching oneplus would give info about Lorant (though calls him durant which is confusing). - TheRavensName (April 17 2012 05:17): Little over an hour after Lazermonkeys vote described above, TheRavensName votes oneplus. His reasoning: - "Sorry One... You seem to be the more likely of a scum then the others with votes in my eyes... and at least Nova has contributed enough to warrant being spared the first lynch in my opinion." - Therapist (April 17 2012 05:25): Less than 10 minutes later, Therapist adds his vote to Oneplus. His reasoning: - He does not wish Nova to be lynched because he is bringing out information and is good for town. - Oneplus has contributed nothing but a bandwagon on Nova Terra (Ed: Did you even read his posts? He suspected Nova before I posted my case and identified a link between Nova and Lazer) - Nova_Terra (April 17 2012 05:28): Three minutes later, Nova adds his vote to oneplus. His reasoning: - "okay, i will relent on solohan for now to consolidate a decent vote." - Crossfire99 (April 17 2012 05:45): 17 minutes later, Crossfire adds his vote to oneplus (it's not bold, but obviously he's voting for oneplus. His reasoning: - He doesn't think oneplus is scum, but he also doesn't think Nova is scum. Since Nova has been actively contributing, he is going to vote oneplus to save Nova. (Ed: Interesting choice of words if you read his post. He is voting for someone he doesn't believe is scum to save Nova). - BlueyD (April 17 2012 05:49): 4 minutes later, BlueyD provides a vote count, and adds his vote to oneplus. His reasoning: - It's between Nova and oneplus (useless keeping his vote on anyone else), and he's got more suspicions on oneplus than Nova. - Daymor (April 17 2012 05:58): 9 minutes later, Daymor adds his vote to oneplus. His reasoning: - He has his suspicions on Nova, but thinks he's contributed enough to spare him from a day 1 lynch. - He consolidates the vote on oneplus to prevent any last minute switching. (Ed. He doesn't say he has any suspicions on oneplus). - Crossfire99 (April 17 2012 06:00): 2 minutes later Crossfire unvotes oneplus, and then votes him again in the same post. - What on earth is this? His vote is already on oneplus and I can't for the life of me work out what this means, other than it looks very odd to me. I'd be interested in what anyone else thinks on this. Note: The time of this post was right at the expected deadline at the time it was made - the mods clarified that it was actually another 2 hours until the deadline. - TheRavensName (April 17 2012 07:47): 13 minutes before the deadline, TheRavensName removes his vote from oneplus, and votes Nova. His reasoning: - At this point he believes Lazer and Nova are working together, and changes his vote unless something else can convince him in the next 15 minutes. The day ends, and innocent townie oneplus is lynched with 6 votes. Of the 6 people that voted for him: - Four have stated no scum related reason for voting oneplus (Daymor, Crossfire, Nova, Therapist) - One is not sure whether he is scum or bad town (Lazermonkey) - One is more suspicious of him than of Nova (BlueyD) Of the 6 people that voted for him, 4 of them did not have any scum related reasons for voting oneplus. That is a very disappointing realisation. He certainly wasn't a lurker when you consider his input over the 59 (?) hour day. Of the 6 people that voted for him, I have strong town leanings towards 2 of them, mild town leanings towards 1 of them, mild scum leanings on 1 of them and strong scum readings on 2 of them. That's my analysis of what happened that led to oneplus's lynch. He was an easy target because of his poor English. Please go and re-read his posts, look at his interactions with others and do your own analysis, then post it for everyone to see. | ||
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On April 17 2012 20:17 TheRavensName wrote: I gotta say.. personally I didn't think his English was that bad in my opinion. I never had that much trouble understanding what he said anyways. Maybe my grasp is weak enough for that though. It did feel a lot like it was just a very crutch excuse when I voted for him at the time, like it was: well I can't post that much cause I'm not very good at English... but I know several people commented it wasn't that bad and had no issue understanding him. Its part of the reason I had those initial scum readings on him. Yes, but your scum readings were wrong - he was innocent town. Also, you didn't make any comments at all about the voting on oneplus. Is that really all you have to add following the day 1 lynch? | ||
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