EPTNewbie Mini Mafia V
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blubbdavid
Switzerland2412 Posts
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blubbdavid
Switzerland2412 Posts
Analysis by blubbdavid In this first Analysis, I want to cover the two most suspected subjects Sufficiency and OtoshimonoU. 1. Sufficiency The posting of this guy is bad. Like, really really bad. If there is something this guy is good in, then it has to be his ability to prematurely make accusations. On March 01 2012 13:15 Sufficiency wrote: I actually FoS gunman103 right now for suggesting no RL. He accuses gunman for suggesting no RL. But actually, gunman is not opposed to a RL, he just wants to choose a better alternative. So, although gunman is not acting scummy, Sufficiency is really fast in blaming him. Further: On March 01 2012 13:17 Sufficiency wrote: I also FoS OtoshimonoU for being a compromiser. Pretty fast, huh? Then, after being called out, instead of becoming defensive and trying to explain his stance, he just refers to his earlier writings. Which are as useful as a cameltoe in a Zombie Apocalypse. Furthermore, his next posts are: On March 02 2012 17:16 Sufficiency wrote: How long have you been playing mafia, Maverick32x? Useless. Fluffy. Scummy. But then: On March 02 2012 17:31 Sufficiency wrote: OtoshimonoU: don't you find me scummy? I did fos you without explaining much. Why would he want to bring attention to himself? As scum? This made me start to doubt… Let’s continue: On March 03 2012 03:03 Sufficiency wrote: Anyway, the way I see it now, Beorn, OtoshimonoU, Rainmaker5 are either indifferent towns or scums. I was pointing FoS'es like crazy everywhere and these three failed to make any responses. I am especially happy about a beorn lynch because he said almost nothing so far (in case we actually want to do a lynch today). Surely, sometimes vanilla towners can be very quiet, but if he is allowed to live for too long, in lylo situations we may hammer wrong because he has only made one post so far. I actually think Tiystus is town. The way he defended NL was pretty towntelling for me. Proposing a Beorn lynch. (who, btw is my predecessor) Where are his suspicions against gunman? Looks like he loses interest in people as fast as he accuses them. Now is this information sufficient (pun totally intended) to accuse him as scum? I have my doubts, because of this post: OtoshimonoU: don't you find me scummy? I did fos you without explaining much. Why the hell does he ask him if he’s scummy? Is this the way scum behaves, especially at the first day, where every word can be used against you? Imo, Sufficiency is just outright bad. Everyone who has read the newbie guides sees that Suff doesn’t act like a newb scum. Newb scum try to blend in and don’t want to get attention. Suff is the opposite. He’s literally screaming “Lynch me!”. But it has to be good to be true. It’s too obvious. Would scum really do this? My conclusion is: Suff is just bad and doesn’t care too much. So: Sufficiency, if you don’t want to step up on the gallows, then please shape up your posting. At the moment I am trying to find some goodwill for you. But if you continue to hurt town like this, you will lose it fast. Faster than you could accuse someone. 2. OtoshimonoU He looks like a bandwagoner: On March 01 2012 12:21 OtoshimonoU wrote: I don't like the idea of first day lynch. It's either hit or miss and towns are the disadvantage when it comes to number. 3/4 town 1/4 mafia. In the first day I doubt that many will even post, casting the suspicions on them already. He opposes a Lynch. Which isn’t unsensible, but like we all know, for some reason lynching is better because we can get information. On March 01 2012 12:37 OtoshimonoU wrote: Or maybe I confused his words with the mafia guide... Anyway, if everyone is willing to random lynch I will too, Clear bandwagoning. He would cast aside his own views if the majority has other views than him. Otoshi catches the attention of some. So he tries to defend himself with this bigworded post: On March 02 2012 11:04 OtoshimonoU wrote: Just a small opinion, Mr.Maverick and Mementoss are controlling the game and thoughts of the game in the Town's perspective. It's possible that they are using an aggressive method of mafia using long persuasive paragraphs. I read Maverick's post and feel he has absolute trust and certainty in Mementoss's accusations and posts. Maybe they just have a connection and my theory is wrong. It's true that they do have a connection and it does to me, seem very strong even if they might be just fellow towns that understand each other's logic. I don't feel the suspicion from neither lurkers nor the accused, they are just new and will not be able to write long constructive ideas without a single clue of evidence nor understanding the underlying message of people's posts. So what I see Mementoss has been giving pressure and Maverick is the back up. As scums they have nothing to gain by saying nothing and not gaining the control of the situation whenever. Those two have most likely the highest amount of posts that will swerve opinions over people. Also Maverick, you need to write something about your own behaviors in your own organization sheet or you just seem to avoid any fault in your own posts. On the first glance his theory of mafia being bigmouthed may have a point. He is suspecting Maverick, who has indeed contributed much to this thread now. But if Maverick was scum, would he really make a big post about probabilities only to influence innocent townies? Would mafia make such a big effort? Furthermore, the other guy he has been suspecting, mementoss, has flipped town. So Otoshi’s theory of two scums covering eachother has lost its base and its meaning. Also Maverick, you need to write something about your own behaviors in your own organization sheet or you just seem to avoid any fault in your own posts. Why would Maverick need to do that? It’s obvious that he’s assuming that he’s town himself, so no need for some words. Imo, his post was a ditch attempt to evade getting lynched, by blaming others and not explaining his behavior. Although he was on the verge of getting lynched, he didn’t try to explain his behavior. On March 03 2012 12:45 OtoshimonoU wrote: Hi Sbrubbles! For Mr. Trackd00r, I must say that I cannot answer your accusations because I cannot understand what exactly your question is and it's been getting on my nerves and I will refuse to quote them. I won't think negatively of anyone that wants to bandwagon and not think for themselves. So basing on the posts I have made I could either be an extremely dumb mafia someone who would be so transparent to give out such easy suspicion or a random townie that was trying to get a feel of the game and gets bombarded with accusation and receive more accusations for defending myself. I will stand on my suspicion over mementoss and maverick, but also state that DimmuKlok is giving me an iffy feeling. "I agree. Lets lynch beorn. He has yet to contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate for today" "##FoS: Rainmaker5" "I'm somewhat lost when it comes to Sufficiency" "##Vote: OtoshimonoU" Maybe he's just a townie that doesn't understand what he wants to do or just wants to follow the leader or someone that wants someone lynched. I can't get a clear view of him, all I see from him is throwing out random thoughts. I don't understand Tiystus either. Hopefully someone can find what we're looking for. And Sufficiency, you're just confused and lost your head. None of your posts making sense, but I don't find you scummy.(jk) Now look at this post, it’s a real goldmine. I won't think negatively of anyone that wants to bandwagon and not think for themselves. Dude, you have been one of the biggest bandwaggoner so far. -.-‘ townie that was trying to get a feel of the game and gets bombarded with accusation and receive more accusations for defending myself. You never tried to defend yourself. The rest of his post consists of accusing two further posters. The difference between Sufficiency and him is that Suff didn’t try to blend in at all. It was his luck that some people didn’t vote and so therefore his demise was postponed. For now I will cast my vote on him, because he is my scum read number one. If you are able to explain something, then maybe I will overthink it, but till then, OtoshimonoU, I will have my watchful eyes on you. | ||
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blubbdavid
Switzerland2412 Posts
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blubbdavid
Switzerland2412 Posts
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blubbdavid
Switzerland2412 Posts
And don't expect my next analysis too soon, it takes time to write so much shit. | ||
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blubbdavid
Switzerland2412 Posts
Judging from that you asked what PR is, I don't assume that you have one. | ||
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blubbdavid
Switzerland2412 Posts
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blubbdavid
Switzerland2412 Posts
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blubbdavid
Switzerland2412 Posts
1) willz22912 + Show Spoiler + Defending oto, pointing finger on Suff. He has done some good analysis. his predecessor tiystius also posted somewhat decently leaning on green for me 2) gunman + Show Spoiler + pushing against Oto because of similar reasons like me, also FOS'ing pablols a bit. Also suggest lynching (useless) lurkers instead one of the more active townies. leaning on green 3) Rainmaker + Show Spoiler + I am not sure about him. Will think about him after he posted the analysis he has promised us. 4) Pablols + Show Spoiler + He has been more active than others, but is suffering on the OMGUS syndrome. Accused Mementoss. Other reads are Suff and Mav. Retracts read on mementoss because of misquoting (?). I am not really sure about it, that could just be scum tactics. Then pushes against suff, but finally votes for Oto. He's on my watchlist. 5) Maverick + Show Spoiler + Most active player till now, encouraging other players. I don't think I have to say much about him, I am pretty sure that he is town. The only downside on him is that he surely is pretty high on scums blacklist. I hope we have a medic, and if we have one, then I hope he knows what he does. 6) Dimmuklok + Show Spoiler + He's pretty fast in voting, but he wants to generate discussion with his actions. He is pretty much acting on his own, not bandwagoning. But I want to see especially see his opinion on the other players. Particularly what he thinks about Rainmaker now. 7) trackdoor + Show Spoiler + As Mav said, he has some pretty good logic. He has the same views on Suff and Oto like me. He is a useful poster, somewhat [green]greenish[/]. 8) Sbrubbles + Show Spoiler + Ha, he's pushing against Mav. But isn't consequent and votes for Rainmaker out of the blue.His alignment on depends what Oto will flip, as Mav said. | ||
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blubbdavid
Switzerland2412 Posts
gunman, you are pushing pretty fast, it's night atm, every false word during night can lead to death. | ||
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blubbdavid
Switzerland2412 Posts
On March 06 2012 12:11 Sbrubbles wrote: Note that still, we haven't lost any power roles and still have have a detective out there. I think whoever the detective is should claim right now and give us his two reports, so our medic can guarantee he lives to talk on day 3. We'll have 3 reports to work with and a good suspect list, giving us a good chance to win this. We should discuss right now who needs to be investigated tonight. Tomorrow I'll write down my reads. Right now I'm as tired as shit. Are you sure that the DT should claim? If there is no medic he will be dead before he can report to us. Isn't it better to discuss now who to investigate so that the DT can claim the next day. This will leave the risk that scum coincidentally kills our DT, but I think it's better than hoping that we have a medic. On March 06 2012 11:41 Maverick32x wrote: So I'll stick to my theory that Sbrubbles and Sufficiency are probably not mafia based on their opportunity to kill Oto on the first night and passing it up.. that leaves: trackd00r Rainmaker5 Maverick32x DimmuKlok gunman103 As some of our *active* possible culprits...Obviously the lurkers make it difficult... but there's some thoughts!! You left me out here... I don't know if I should be happy or sad. Imo, guys that would be good investigation objects: Sufficiency Pablols Dimmu Rainmaker | ||
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blubbdavid
Switzerland2412 Posts
Dimmu's now randomly pointed against Willz, that's confusing. Could you please elaborate more why Willz looks suspicious? And I feel too that a DT case against Rain would be wasted. Even if Rain returned town, how would it be helpful? "Hey look guys, we have a townie here, but one who doesn't contibute." | ||
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blubbdavid
Switzerland2412 Posts
I especially like this post of him, where he stems himself against the odds, I am baffled that Dimmu didn't include it in his analysis. On March 05 2012 04:19 willz22912 wrote: After reading the latest responses, I'm now a bit baffled. The majority opinion is that either Sufficiency or OtoshimonoU are scum, and that those are our two choices for a lynch. So here are my thoughts on them. My opinion on OtoshimonoU: The active players were already pushing for OtoshimonoU's lynch prior to the replacements, with mementoss being targetted and flipping green, it doesn't make sense to me that Mafia would accept OtoshimonoU getting lynched in response unless he didn't want to play anymore, I would like to hear from him to see if he is actually still going to be active before I throw my vote. It feels like a mislynch to me because OtoshimonoU hasn't given much in the way for defense, it seems more apathetic than really bad scum play. As quoted, blubbdavid's post suggests that he is more of a bandwagoner than anything truly malicious, and everyone that is bandwagoning in response on him seems like it is being directed by one of the active mafia posters posing as town. Now I am new to Mafia, but if everyone is already against you, how can you defend yourself without incurring claims of OMGUS? My opinion on Sufficiency: Looking through his filter, he also seems pretty apathetic. Mostly one line responses, nothing substantial, hasn't posted on his reads at all either. He originally targets OtoshimonoU and then later switches to beorn1 a lurker who has since been replaced. Both of these are easy decisions to make to seem town, but he hasn't commented on anyone else. Still highly suspicious behavior, and I'd be more willing to lynch Sufficiency first than to stay on the majority opinion of OtoshimonoU. If we have 48 hours for this day cycle, we need to give time for the accused to start responding, especially to the new replacements, so we can get better/updated reads. We have to lynch someone to try and gain more information, and having two easy suspects is fine for that, but I'd be leery that this is what mafia wants, us to mis-lynch while being directed by someone who is masquerading as one of the most active town posters. Final opinion: Give time for the accused to respond, but otherwise, I'm voting Sufficiency. It states pretty much how Oto would have felt as a townie on the edge. While I see that you guys suspect him of knowing more than other, it doesn't make sense to defend Oto like that. He could have easily bandwaggoned, but chose not to. So let's list our DT cases: 1) willz + Show Spoiler + first suspected, then defended Oto Always talks about how Oto is town, it could be that he knows more than others. But paradoxically, he doesn't use that inf against Oto, but for him. 2) Dimmu + Show Spoiler + pushin mostly against lurkers his view on Oto: On March 06 2012 04:08 DimmuKlok wrote: Oto is either a useless towny or mafia, I'm voting for him. I tried to get more information out of him before we lynch him, but he apparently has 0 reads... So despite admiting that there is a chance that Oto is town, you vote for him? 3) bluelightz + Show Spoiler + I have posted my opinion on him earlier. Atm I am leaning against Dimmu. + Show Spoiler + aghh, I have been lurking in this thread for hours now, watching the discussion unfold. It was pretty hard to come up with something useful and make a decision. It's a pity that we only have Mav's, Dimmu's and Brubble's view on the willz case. | ||
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blubbdavid
Switzerland2412 Posts
 I don't think there will be a replacement for Rain.Now I see why Sbrubbles brought up the plan of DT claiming. Have to take a look at gunman. | ||
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blubbdavid
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blubbdavid
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Second, I am thinking about how Scrubble's death could benefit mafia. Scrubbles FOS'd Rain and Dimmu, but maybe mafia is trying to lead us a wrong path. Third, Lurkers. They are a big problem. It wouldn't wonder me if the just ninjabandwagon the next train that comes up. By voting on one of the lurkers, maybe he will talk a bit more? Voting on gunman that he explains why he pushed rain so fast. | ||
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blubbdavid
Switzerland2412 Posts
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blubbdavid
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blubbdavid
Switzerland2412 Posts
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blubbdavid
Switzerland2412 Posts
Now let's go over his post history. I'm not going to quote the filler posts here, so don't accuse me of picking and choosing, this post is already going to be super long without me adding everything DimmuKlok ever said added on to it. He first establishes his credibility in the beginning by defending Mementoss, who was one of the most active posters in the thread and who was killed off Night1. If he was Mafia, he would look town by defending Mementoss, but now there's a reason that Mementoss was targetted first. By killing Mementoss off early right after he posts supporting DimmuKlok and "confirming town" he removes suspicion from himself, and can use his previous support of Mementoss to defend himself. Pretty scummy behavior here, I hope everyone else agrees. As for the night kills and how they help DimmuKlok. DimmuKlok built his credibility by defending Mementoss, Mementoss was also one of the most active posters and even commented saying DimmuKlok was "confirmed town". By killing him that Night1, he retains his credibility and removes one of the most dangerous threats to people noticing his inconsistency. Night2, killing Sbrubbles aside from being our medic, was one of my defenders, and even called out DimmuKlok for his more suspicious behavior. Removing him would weaken any arguments I make because I could not use his future support. The death of Mementoss indeed built up some cred. But not so much like Otos death did for Scrubbles. Killing a townie after he supports you is a risky tactic, wouldn't it be better if Mementoss lived to support Dimmu? And by killing Scrubbles, wouldn't it make it obvious to take a look at Dimmu? I mean Scrubbles was against Dimmu. By killing Scrubbles, Dimmu would easily get the suspicion of us. That's just something that worried me about your analysis. But I pretty much like the rest. But I will stay on gunmaker for now. | ||
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