EPTNewbie Mini Mafia V
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Sbrubbles
Brazil5776 Posts
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Sbrubbles
Brazil5776 Posts
On March 01 2012 15:33 Maverick32x wrote: If we are making completely random choices- this is how the numbers role out. (99% sure...) Situation Ratio of Mafia:town___ Percent Mafia influence_______ Change in Mafia Percentage Right now 3: 9 ______________ 33% Mafia Best case: 1:4 ______________ 25% Mafia ______________ -8% difference ______________ 25% chance of this Worst Case: 3: 7 ______________43% Mafia _____________+10% difference ______________75% chance of this Nothing 3:8: ______________ 37.5%Mafia ______________+4.5% Difference ______________ Depends. Before I post my opinions, this is hurting my eyes, so me correct you. Maybe you just used the word "influence" wrong, maybe it's a case of semantics, maybe it's an innocent mistake. Anyway: Situation Ratio of Mafia:town___ Percent Mafia influence_______ Change in Mafia Percentage Right now 3: 9 ______________ 25% Mafia Best case: 2:8 ______________ 20% Mafia ______________ -5% difference ______________ 25% chance of this Worst Case: 3: 7 ______________30% Mafia _____________+5% difference ______________75% chance of this Nothing 3:8: ______________ 27,3%Mafia ______________+2,3% Difference ______________ Depends. | ||
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Sbrubbles
Brazil5776 Posts
I don't see what Otoshi has done enough to warrant so much suspicion. 1) He first said he wanted no lynch then said would agree with a random lynch. Flip-flopping, but not a major case. 2) He comments on track's bold first post and sends a few one-liners. Suspicious? Sure. Derailing the discussion? It may have been filler, but not annoying, distracting filler, so no. 3) His tell on his 4th post. OK, I will admit this looks pretty damn suspicious, but idk, may just have been phrasing. If anything, this shows that Trackdoor is really on the ball (so far as the first day goes, he's the only one here who looks slightly trustworthy). 4) The rest of his posts he defends himself from Mementos. He doesn't put much effort into his posts, and doesn't post much. This is scumtelling, but I'm not convinced its enough. I'm sticking with a ##Vote: No Lynch. There's already 6 votes on him and I'm not convinced enough to hammer. Now, for my actual suspect here: Maverick + Show Spoiler + On March 01 2012 14:42 Maverick32x wrote: So.. believe it or not guys.. Tiystus, Friedchicken and Sufficiency… 3 support randomly lynching…. And there are 3 mafia…. I’d like to hear more out of you guys- but the bandwagoning behind this idea is highly suspicious…. 1) Slightly confusing graph (as I pointed out last post) and willing to accuse people at once just because they had an argument pro-RL (sure, Tiystus and Sufficiency were pointing fingers as well, but your enphasis was on the pro-RL). In the first day we're here to try to point out mistakes and inconsistencies, and the mafia is (probably) not stupid enough to show themselves together so easily. Your willingness to accuse 3 at once and act like you've solved the case is suspicious. + Show Spoiler + On March 01 2012 14:42 Maverick32x wrote: Trackd00r- Thank you. I agree. We need activity if we’re going to lynch successfully. What I’m most worried about is that the mafia are eyeing inactive townies and plan on trying to swing us in that direction…. 2) The whole point of lynching lurkers is that they are usually scum, not usually town. There's a good chance there are 2 mafia guys going along with the discussion, but that a third one is hanging back to not endanger himself of later days. If we have to choose between two lurkers, it is up to us (town) to not be dissuaded by someone (or two) who knows which lurker is mafia and which one is town. Still, lynching lurkers is a good strategy, having no better suspect. 3) Nervous of sounding "bloodthirsty". You're not even close to the accusation center and you apologise in 3 different posts? + Show Spoiler + On March 02 2012 10:36 Maverick32x wrote: Okay guys. This is ALL of my reads over the past day. Let me know what you think. If any is inaccurate let me know, but I broke it down into looking at each player's tendency to agree/disagree with someone else to see if there are any patterns of "allegiance" that I can spot. I also looked at behaviors that can be interpreted as either Mafia or Town. I obviously couldn't hit on everything, but these were the things that jumped out at me.. feel free to agree/disagree all you'd like. Lastly, I put in some miscellaneous information that I just thought was interesting or factual about a stance that the person had. I obviously didn't write stuff about myself, but if you'd like to create one for me, go ahead. 1.) gunman103 – + Show Spoiler + Agrees with: Dimx2 Disagrees with: Sufficiency. Mafia Behaviors: A kind of wishy-washy with his policy. Starts to fall to RL as a last resort if necessary. Though previously stated he wants to lynch for info, he now is considering a RL, but would prefer a ‘lurker’. Town Behaviors: Doesn’t want to lynch unless there is information to be gained. Repeats this information. Reinforces this idea a third time Misc: Against random lynching. Should only lynch for info. . 2.) Mementoss – + Show Spoiler + Agrees with: Maverickx2 Disagrees with: Trackd00r but takes it back. Sufficiency, OtoshimonUx3, Friedchicken, Pablols Mafia Behaviors: Possibly keeping attention off himself by focusing on others, Especially OtoshimonoU. Town Behaviors: Against Random Lynch- presents a well thought out argument. Continues to detail out his reasoning. Consistent with the people he disagrees with and the people he suspects. Misc: Claims himself as one of the most active. True? 3.) Rainmaker5 + Show Spoiler + Agrees with: Dissagrees with: Mafia Behaviors: Willing to sac a townie. Responds very late with little substancex2 Town Behaviors: Misc: Wants to move onto a new topic since random lynch has been discussed to death. 4.) Pablols – + Show Spoiler + Agrees with: Disagrees with: Trakd00r-> takes it back(after being exonerated by him), lightly disagrees with Maverick, Mementossx4 Mafia Behaviors: Brings it back to the RL, despite everyone moving on from it. Rambles on a bit at this point. Town Behaviors: Decently argues for a move to lynch in looking at the long term perspective, willing to take a risk. Puts a lot of effort into pointing out that Mementoss if taking his words out of context. Wants to lynch for a purpose. Misc: Randomly accuses Mementoss seemingly because he is upset that he was accussed. A bit overaction. 5.) Tiystus – + Show Spoiler + Agrees with: Disagrees with: Mementoss Mafia Behaviors: Indecisive. Encouraging risky/chaotic behaviors.Still contradictory statements. Says Dim is town, but then also accuses him of possibly being mafia. Brings back the RL discussion (though he has been mia for awhile) Town Behaviors: Would rather go with a hunch than a RL, but feels a lynch is necessary or town will lose. Misc: all for random lynch- posts that he’s reluctant. Sticks with reluctance, but again is on the “we need to do something NOW train” Back tracks and now is saying RL is a last resort. Didn't answer numerous questions directed at him. 6.) DimmuKlok – + Show Spoiler + Agrees with: Trackd00r, Mementoss Disagress with Mafia Behaviors: First post indicates a strong desire to try to push for a lynch. Town Behaviors: Still thinks we could lynch a lurker to ‘flush out mafia’, but doesn’t want to randomly do it. Recognizes that we are talking circles about Random lynching or not and wants to change topics. Misc:wants to lynch on day 1. But wants to see active posters and seems to want to decide on someone. Against random lynching though. 7.) Sufficiency –. + Show Spoiler + Mafia Behaviors: Wants to RL- pushes this hard. Accusses without any evidence or reasoning. Town Behaviors: Agrees with: Disagrees with: Gunman, OtoshimonU 8.) friedchicken – + Show Spoiler + Mafia Behaviors: poor logic, wants to lynch no matter what. Flips kind of. Would be willing to lynch a lurker, not necessarily random. There could be only town that are lurking however, so this could be a setup. Town Behaviors: 9.) Maverick32x 10.) trackd00r – + Show Spoiler + Agrees with: Pablols Disagrees with: Sufficiency- then flips to say he is town. OtoshimonUx2 Mafia Behaviors: Seems eager in the initial post to try to get people to accuse others right away. Uses past game as evidence of his ability to hunt down mafia to try to set up innocence. Brings up that the activity is too low, but hasn’t posted much. Town Behaviors: Initial post is encouraging and pro-town. Continues this trend, wants to hear people talk. Doesn’t want to RL Misc:Seems positive about staying active. Focuses on wording as his evidence. 11.) OtoshimonoU- + Show Spoiler + Agrees with: Disagrees with: Trakd00r and Dim Mafia Behaviors: Wishy-washy. Willing to along with everyone, seems to be trying to lie low. Town Behaviors: Recognizes the disadvantages of a first day lynch and feels its too hasty. Misc: Against first day lynching since town is at disadvantage- but will go along if everyone else will do it. Defends Trak’s usage of “accusing” and seems to support him. 12.) Beorn1 + Show Spoiler + Mafia Behaviors: Longest Lurker by far. First post has 0 content. Town Behaviors: 4) Your big "summary post". Great way to sound pro-town while being useless. You're just lumping absolutely everything that happened during the day into one big post. Not only is it a horrible way to pass a point across, but it can end up misleading as to what is truly important. The only situation in which this could be useful is when coming from a confirmed PR, and even then it wouldn't be a summary of what happened during the day and who agreed/disaggred with whom, it would have to be more succint. If you're really town, please don't do it like this again. Not enough evidence here to outright call you scum, but I'm wary of you. | ||
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Sbrubbles
Brazil5776 Posts
On March 03 2012 09:19 Mementoss wrote: + Show Spoiler + On March 03 2012 09:08 Sbrubbles wrote: Sorry guys, its a bit overwhelming trying to take in 7/8 pages of discussion, especially considering how many filler/opinion summaries there are. Frankly I think opinion "summaries" are worthless (especially from non-confirmed PRs on day 1). Accusing someone for not wanting NL/normal lynch/RL/whatever is also worthless, because all of those have merits (and statistics, which we don't have, will eventually tell us which is best) . Anyway, for the current discussion: I don't see what Otoshi has done enough to warrant so much suspicion. 1) He first said he wanted no lynch then said would agree with a random lynch. Flip-flopping, but not a major case. 2) He comments on track's bold first post and sends a few one-liners. Suspicious? Sure. Derailing the discussion? It may have been filler, but not annoying, distracting filler, so no. 3) His tell on his 4th post. OK, I will admit this looks pretty damn suspicious, but idk, may just have been phrasing. If anything, this shows that Trackdoor is really on the ball (so far as the first day goes, he's the only one here who looks slightly trustworthy). 4) The rest of his posts he defends himself from Mementos. He doesn't put much effort into his posts, and doesn't post much. This is scumtelling, but I'm not convinced its enough. I'm sticking with a ##Vote: No Lynch. There's already 6 votes on him and I'm not convinced enough to hammer. Now, for my actual suspect here: Maverick + Show Spoiler + On March 01 2012 14:42 Maverick32x wrote: So.. believe it or not guys.. Tiystus, Friedchicken and Sufficiency… 3 support randomly lynching…. And there are 3 mafia…. I’d like to hear more out of you guys- but the bandwagoning behind this idea is highly suspicious…. 1) Slightly confusing graph (as I pointed out last post) and willing to accuse people at once just because they had an argument pro-RL (sure, Tiystus and Sufficiency were pointing fingers as well, but your enphasis was on the pro-RL). In the first day we're here to try to point out mistakes and inconsistencies, and the mafia is (probably) not stupid enough to show themselves together so easily. Your willingness to accuse 3 at once and act like you've solved the case is suspicious. + Show Spoiler + On March 01 2012 14:42 Maverick32x wrote: Trackd00r- Thank you. I agree. We need activity if we’re going to lynch successfully. What I’m most worried about is that the mafia are eyeing inactive townies and plan on trying to swing us in that direction…. 2) The whole point of lynching lurkers is that they are usually scum, not usually town. There's a good chance there are 2 mafia guys going along with the discussion, but that a third one is hanging back to not endanger himself of later days. If we have to choose between two lurkers, it is up to us (town) to not be dissuaded by someone (or two) who knows which lurker is mafia and which one is town. Still, lynching lurkers is a good strategy, having no better suspect. 3) Nervous of sounding "bloodthirsty". You're not even close to the accusation center and you apologise in 3 different posts? + Show Spoiler + On March 02 2012 10:36 Maverick32x wrote: Okay guys. This is ALL of my reads over the past day. Let me know what you think. If any is inaccurate let me know, but I broke it down into looking at each player's tendency to agree/disagree with someone else to see if there are any patterns of "allegiance" that I can spot. I also looked at behaviors that can be interpreted as either Mafia or Town. I obviously couldn't hit on everything, but these were the things that jumped out at me.. feel free to agree/disagree all you'd like. Lastly, I put in some miscellaneous information that I just thought was interesting or factual about a stance that the person had. I obviously didn't write stuff about myself, but if you'd like to create one for me, go ahead. 1.) gunman103 – + Show Spoiler + Agrees with: Dimx2 Disagrees with: Sufficiency. Mafia Behaviors: A kind of wishy-washy with his policy. Starts to fall to RL as a last resort if necessary. Though previously stated he wants to lynch for info, he now is considering a RL, but would prefer a ‘lurker’. Town Behaviors: Doesn’t want to lynch unless there is information to be gained. Repeats this information. Reinforces this idea a third time Misc: Against random lynching. Should only lynch for info. . 2.) Mementoss – + Show Spoiler + Agrees with: Maverickx2 Disagrees with: Trackd00r but takes it back. Sufficiency, OtoshimonUx3, Friedchicken, Pablols Mafia Behaviors: Possibly keeping attention off himself by focusing on others, Especially OtoshimonoU. Town Behaviors: Against Random Lynch- presents a well thought out argument. Continues to detail out his reasoning. Consistent with the people he disagrees with and the people he suspects. Misc: Claims himself as one of the most active. True? 3.) Rainmaker5 + Show Spoiler + Agrees with: Dissagrees with: Mafia Behaviors: Willing to sac a townie. Responds very late with little substancex2 Town Behaviors: Misc: Wants to move onto a new topic since random lynch has been discussed to death. 4.) Pablols – + Show Spoiler + Agrees with: Disagrees with: Trakd00r-> takes it back(after being exonerated by him), lightly disagrees with Maverick, Mementossx4 Mafia Behaviors: Brings it back to the RL, despite everyone moving on from it. Rambles on a bit at this point. Town Behaviors: Decently argues for a move to lynch in looking at the long term perspective, willing to take a risk. Puts a lot of effort into pointing out that Mementoss if taking his words out of context. Wants to lynch for a purpose. Misc: Randomly accuses Mementoss seemingly because he is upset that he was accussed. A bit overaction. 5.) Tiystus – + Show Spoiler + Agrees with: Disagrees with: Mementoss Mafia Behaviors: Indecisive. Encouraging risky/chaotic behaviors.Still contradictory statements. Says Dim is town, but then also accuses him of possibly being mafia. Brings back the RL discussion (though he has been mia for awhile) Town Behaviors: Would rather go with a hunch than a RL, but feels a lynch is necessary or town will lose. Misc: all for random lynch- posts that he’s reluctant. Sticks with reluctance, but again is on the “we need to do something NOW train” Back tracks and now is saying RL is a last resort. Didn't answer numerous questions directed at him. 6.) DimmuKlok – + Show Spoiler + Agrees with: Trackd00r, Mementoss Disagress with Mafia Behaviors: First post indicates a strong desire to try to push for a lynch. Town Behaviors: Still thinks we could lynch a lurker to ‘flush out mafia’, but doesn’t want to randomly do it. Recognizes that we are talking circles about Random lynching or not and wants to change topics. Misc:wants to lynch on day 1. But wants to see active posters and seems to want to decide on someone. Against random lynching though. 7.) Sufficiency –. + Show Spoiler + Mafia Behaviors: Wants to RL- pushes this hard. Accusses without any evidence or reasoning. Town Behaviors: Agrees with: Disagrees with: Gunman, OtoshimonU 8.) friedchicken – + Show Spoiler + Mafia Behaviors: poor logic, wants to lynch no matter what. Flips kind of. Would be willing to lynch a lurker, not necessarily random. There could be only town that are lurking however, so this could be a setup. Town Behaviors: 9.) Maverick32x 10.) trackd00r – + Show Spoiler + Agrees with: Pablols Disagrees with: Sufficiency- then flips to say he is town. OtoshimonUx2 Mafia Behaviors: Seems eager in the initial post to try to get people to accuse others right away. Uses past game as evidence of his ability to hunt down mafia to try to set up innocence. Brings up that the activity is too low, but hasn’t posted much. Town Behaviors: Initial post is encouraging and pro-town. Continues this trend, wants to hear people talk. Doesn’t want to RL Misc:Seems positive about staying active. Focuses on wording as his evidence. 11.) OtoshimonoU- + Show Spoiler + Agrees with: Disagrees with: Trakd00r and Dim Mafia Behaviors: Wishy-washy. Willing to along with everyone, seems to be trying to lie low. Town Behaviors: Recognizes the disadvantages of a first day lynch and feels its too hasty. Misc: Against first day lynching since town is at disadvantage- but will go along if everyone else will do it. Defends Trak’s usage of “accusing” and seems to support him. 12.) Beorn1 + Show Spoiler + Mafia Behaviors: Longest Lurker by far. First post has 0 content. Town Behaviors: 4) Your big "summary post". Great way to sound pro-town while being useless. You're just lumping absolutely everything that happened during the day into one big post. Not only is it a horrible way to pass a point across, but it can end up misleading as to what is truly important. The only situation in which this could be useful is when coming from a confirmed PR, and even then it wouldn't be a summary of what happened during the day and who agreed/disaggred with whom, it would have to be more succint. If you're really town, please don't do it like this again. Not enough evidence here to outright call you scum, but I'm wary of you. First, im glad to see such an informed post, it seems as if you were here the whole time. Second, Im happy you to read into the current suspect for yourself, OtoshmonoU and not just vote because its happening. But I have one question regarding this nolynch, can you provide your reasoning why a no lynch would be better than being 100% on OtoshmonoU and getting some information out of it? Even if you don't nessecarily think he is scum, you seem to see why other people do, and I think a no lynch is a fairly weak first day. What is your opinion on this and how can it benefit the town rather than the lynch at hand? Third, I appreciate the read on maverick, as it is the first read on him other than the mementoss/maverick mafia team conspiracy. Though I am not convinced he is scum, and that all this behaviour is scummy, it is definitily worth looking at and thinking about. The only information we'll gain from Otosh is if he's town or not. Also (and more importantly), if he turns out to be town, what then? Do we accuse you for starting the finger pointing at him? Do we accuse the people who went in with you? What about everyone else who joined the bandwagon? No, it would be dismissed as a mistake given that it was his own damn fault for being lynched. So, nothing gained aside from knowing he's town or not. One big bandwagon and an easy target. Tomorrow, though, we might have a cop report and possible a vigilante shooting. I'll be rereading what led up to his accusations, see if anyone sticks out. | ||
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Sbrubbles
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1) If Otoshi ends up being mafia, there may be mafia among Pablols, Tiystus and Beorn. Then again, they may just have been townies who just forgot about the voting, thought the case was weak (like me) or refused to bandwagon. 2) If Otoshi ends up being town, we can be almost 100% sure Pablols, Tiystus, and Beorn are also town. Then again, they may have been mafia who just forgot about the voting or the mafia among them decided to not vote for Otoshi in order to build trust with the town. Still, I find both these alternatives very unlikely because a) being mafia (or a town PR, for that matter) is more exiting, so if you're gonna lurk you're gonna do it on purpose and sure as hell you aren't gonna miss a mandatory vote, risking a modkill and b) the mafia avoiding a free lynching to build up town cred is a weak idea at this point of the game. My suggestion for the detective (if we have one) is to investigate this night: 1) Otoshi, 2) Beorn (maybe, one of the other lurkers) or 3) Maverick, who still sounds suspicious to me. Next night you can claim your role even if he's inno unless, of course, our doc (if we have one) gets killed in the night. My suggestion for the vigilante (if we have one) is refrain from shooting Otoshi until next night. You may want to shoot Beorn or one of the other lurkers (sufficiency comes to mind), but there's a good chance you'll be hitting a bad townie, which is bad but not as horrible as shooting someone who is active. Anyone else would be risky imho. As for Maverick's post: + Show Spoiler + On March 03 2012 13:25 Maverick32x wrote: That is one way of looking at it.. This is my thought process though- Lets say all 3 mafia players are being active at that point in the game. And one of them says "lets lynch the lurkers". Clearly the 3 mafia are aware that they aren't even being considered at this point as potential suspects.... so wouldn't they be okay with this idea? Especially with the amount of low posts at the time- This idea just seems bad. I wonder if someone who has actual contributed and agreed and disagreed with people would be better.. if we got a hit on them, it would be easy to follow them around to other people. As opposed to if we hit a lurker.. okay. we got a mafia.... but now what? And if we got a townie.. we actually accomplished nothing at all. This is obviously my view on this generalized idea- which makes me a suspect.. how? The point is that lurking is a great strategy for the mafia and we have to keep it from being so. When lurking the mafia doesn't have to expose themselves, have the same voting rights as everyone else and don't leave a trail we can follow later. Townies shouldn't lurk and townies who do shouldn't be tolerated because they give a shield behind which the lurking mafia can stay safe. + Show Spoiler + Yep, I actually acknowledged that as well... And I've accused multiple people at this point to stir up conversations in preparation of the vote. I'm not calling attention to you sound/not sounding "bloodthirsty". I'm calling out your defensiveness about a simple word choice that no one was making a reference to (except for memetoss in one post) + Show Spoiler + I don't have any other way to possibly convey the information that is occurring... You come off extremely arrogant in all of these points with an attitude of "I know more than you" and its really off putting to me. This of course has no indication of town/scum- just something that makes it hard to agree with you. Focus on your reads/topic at hand, not on summarizing who said what about whom and who dissagreed/agreed with whom over what. If we had everyone's opinion about everyone that would be a whopping 121 opinions, in other words, worthless. Everyone here who is taking this slightly seriously probably has their own small word document/spreadsheet with everyone else's name on it. + Show Spoiler + As for the "Mementoss and Maverick" connection... That just doesn't add up... we both are taking a logical approach and are active.. it just makes sense that the active people we be talking to each other.... Its good to see that our newest addition is involved however, so we will see what happens... I agree that you're both probably not together. But one of you could be leading the other with good reads on bad townies instead of good reads on mafia. That sorta thing can happen on day 1 when the only thing people can do is point fingers at each other. | ||
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Sbrubbles
Brazil5776 Posts
Anyway, Maverick, here's a good way for you to make your case and try to convince me and the rest who still haven't voted: + Show Spoiler + On March 06 2012 01:54 Maverick32x wrote: 11.) OtoshimonoU Filter We need to vote this guy. The information will be extremely helpful regardless of if he is scum or town. He has dodged everything we've thrown at him and hasn't been active at all. Again with my other point, if he WAS town, mafia would of voted him off with the lynch. Explain to us how you plan to use this information. I've already given my opinion on the issue: + Show Spoiler + On March 04 2012 00:49 Sbrubbles wrote: 1) If Otoshi ends up being mafia, there may be mafia among Pablols, Tiystus and Beorn. Then again, they may just have been townies who just forgot about the voting, thought the case was weak (like me) or refused to bandwagon. 2) If Otoshi ends up being town, we can be almost 100% sure Pablols, Tiystus, and Beorn are also town. Then again, they may have been mafia who just forgot about the voting or the mafia among them decided to not vote for Otoshi in order to build trust with the town. Still, I find both these alternatives very unlikely because a) being mafia (or a town PR, for that matter) is more exiting, so if you're gonna lurk you're gonna do it on purpose and sure as hell you aren't gonna miss a mandatory vote, risking a modkill and b) the mafia avoiding a free lynching to build up town cred is a weak idea at this point of the game. which is to say there's not much gained from him being mafia. I believe that if there's a better case for lynching him, we can always do it tommorow, or can have the detective check him for us (which I had hoped he would this night, but apparently he didn't). I was honestly hoping our detective would have something to spurn the discussion today. Of course, there's an actual possibility that there is no detective in this game, but that would be a little strange. For now, as for the vote itself, I'm voting for our resident lurker Rainmaker. Beorn, who came out of the closet after transforming into blubbdavid, seems to be posting at least. | ||
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On March 06 2012 04:57 blubbdavid wrote: 8) Sbrubbles + Show Spoiler + Ha, he's pushing against Mav. But isn't consequent and votes for Rainmaker out of the blue.His alignment on depends what Oto will flip, as Mav said. Don't take my vote as inconsequential. Rain hasn't posted anything since day 1 even that was meh in terms of productiveness. Lurkers are prime suspects on my book, and Rain is the quietest of them all. | ||
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We should discuss right now who needs to be investigated tonight. Tomorrow I'll write down my reads. Right now I'm as tired as shit. | ||
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On March 06 2012 18:51 blubbdavid wrote: Are you sure that the DT should claim? If there is no medic he will be dead before he can report to us. Isn't it better to discuss now who to investigate so that the DT can claim the next day. This will leave the risk that scum coincidentally kills our DT, but I think it's better than hoping that we have a medic. Well I would think it would be weird not to have a medic in the game ... idk. Still, one thing I had forgotten is that there might be a mafia roleblocker, so it might really not be worth it for the detective to claim. Bah, idk any more. | ||
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Sbrubbles
Brazil5776 Posts
+ Show Spoiler + On March 03 2012 06:50 DimmuKlok wrote: Bandwagoning with Sufficiency actually had nothing to do with Sufficiency at all. When Sufficiency posted that he wanted to lynch Beorn, I quickly agreed and threw my vote on him. This was done in order to pressure Beorn out of hiding. In the post I hint at exactly what I want him to do, and that's to "contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate". I suspected him as scum so his response was going to give me a lot of information. I even make another post to put the pressure back on Beorn and get some information out of him here: My vote was not initially intended for Beorn, nor did I intend to keep it on him, because I didn't think he would get enough votes before the deadline. I'm changing my vote to Oto, who I originally intended on voting for. 1) Begins day 1 voting for blubbdavid, the biggest lurker at the time "just to bring him out of hiding" and, once there were 4 votes on Otoshi (thus a good chance of getting rid of him), he switches his vote "to who he originally intended"! In fact, he doesn't explain anywhere why he's voting for Otoshi, except for saying it was who he originally intended on voting for! + Show Spoiler + On March 04 2012 09:57 DimmuKlok wrote: My idea and Mementoss's idea are actually very different. His idea was to force everyone into coming up with 2 very detailed cases on 2 different people. There were lots of problems with this plan. One of which he states right after he tells everyone the plan: All town need to participate and the cases need to be damn good or they will get accused. This meant that the mafia simply didn't have to participate and all it took was one town player to not put in the effort. If you were going to participate you needed to put in a lot of effort, therefor not many people contributed and the idea died. Not surprising considering 4 people didn't even put in the effort to vote, and at least one was town. This idea has none of those problems. You can choose to benefit the town by making a more detailed post on your scum read, but you don't have to. What you do have to do is post. Don't, and we'll simply lynch you. I'm not going to lie, the major problem with this plan is that we can't lynch someone that we have a case on unless we are nearly 100% sure he is mafia. Simply because we need to have consequences for not participating, and that's getting lynched. Even that one problem is minor, though. A townie will not want to be lynched, therefor he will at least post. That will continue to narrow down the list of lurkers until you would have to be stupid not to accuse someone in order to not get lynched. If everyone is smart, everyone will post, and we can get new information out there and everyone participating. In the chance that we have 1-3 lurkers when it comes time to vote, we'll have to pick which we feel is the best to lynch. I don't see that happening though with how easy it is to keep yourself from getting lynched(Post a scum read). When and if there are no lurkers, we can go back to voting for who you want to lynch. 2) Night 1 and Day 2, besides once again not explaining his vote for Otoshi, his posts are either filler, or the discussion he had with Mementoss about lack of participation, which is not exactly what you would call "productive". But hey! At least he hedged his bets! + Show Spoiler + On March 06 2012 04:08 DimmuKlok wrote: Oto is either a useless towny or mafia, I'm voting for him. I tried to get more information out of him before we lynch him, but he apparently has 0 reads... + Show Spoiler + On March 06 2012 22:47 DimmuKlok wrote: Investigate Rainmaker first and foremost. The others you guys are curious of look like you're trying to find the scum that's trying to stay in the light. If that was the case, I'd be taking a closer look at Willz... Just sayin 3) Besides the potshot at Willz (who I feel is town for not lynching Otto day 1, or at the very least null), he takes to accusing Rain. But Rain is already under heavy suspicion, and is a prime target for tomorrow, so I wouldn't find it strange for at least one of his buddies to bus (sacrifice) him in order to look townish. 4) Also note that there may be a Godfather in the game. If Rain is a Godfather, it would be textbook mafia play to try to get the DT to investigate him. So, in summary, I think we should investigate Dimmu today, possibly lynch Rain tommorow and look for the 3rd mafia. | ||
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+ Show Spoiler + On March 07 2012 03:03 DimmuKlok wrote: Why I called out Willz: Willz was the first person to vote for Oto. In this post he states clearly that he's completely ok with the current case on Oto and willing to lynch him. He even throws in a scapegoat for funzies(He's new). He then states here, as confusingly as possible, that he thinks lynching Oto would be a mislynch. Later in the post saying he's more ok with a Sufficiency lynch than Oto, because of Blubbdavids post. He's now sure that Oto is town and lynching him will give no information. I bolded it for importance. If Oto was mafia, obviously him getting lynched would give us plenty of information. All of these point of views are not incriminating yet, but important to keep in mind when you read this: As you say yourself, none of this is incriminating. What happened is that he thought there was a case against Otoshi then changed his mind, as I was hoping the rest of you would also. Saying he would gain "no information" is an obvious exageration, with which I agreed to in principle. It was not clear Otoshi was mafia, there would be little information gained from him being mafia and no point in killing him otherwise. On March 04 2012 00:49 Sbrubbles wrote: 1) If Otoshi ends up being mafia, there may be mafia among Pablols, Tiystus and Beorn. Then again, they may just have been townies who just forgot about the voting, thought the case was weak (like me) or refused to bandwagon. 2) If Otoshi ends up being town, we can be almost 100% sure Pablols, Tiystus, and Beorn are also town. Then again, they may have been mafia who just forgot about the voting or the mafia among them decided to not vote for Otoshi in order to build trust with the town. Still, I find both these alternatives very unlikely because a) being mafia (or a town PR, for that matter) is more exiting, so if you're gonna lurk you're gonna do it on purpose and sure as hell you aren't gonna miss a mandatory vote, risking a modkill and b) the mafia avoiding a free lynching to build up town cred is a weak idea at this point of the game. + Show Spoiler + On March 07 2012 03:03 DimmuKlok wrote: This is where he begins to try to prove his innocence, while still getting rid of Oto. When you read this post, it's made very clear to you that he thinks Oto is green. I'd go even further to say that he knows that he's green. But alas, "That being said, I will be willing to switch to the OtoshimonoU vote if people are dead set on it, and we need my vote. I will state for the record that I am against this, but if it's a choice between a no-lynch and OtoshimonoU then we have no choice, and can try and gain information from it." Yea, lets get that information out of him that you said there wasn't any of... This post was made immediately after. He has the inherent feeling that he needs to defend his choice without anyone accusing him. Remember, it's for the information. This post is the most telling. He tells everyone what he knew all along. Oto flipping green will not give information. He also knows that Oto is going to flip green, and that explains all the effort he put in to make sure that he would not be a suspect after his death. His last 3 posts were shortly before the lynch, and all pushed the same message. Oto being lynched was the perfect way for Willz to look innocent and to stay out of the light. It was too suspicious not to bring up. After thinking about it, a DT check on Willz wouldn't be too bad of an idea either. After he changed his mind, it's pretty clear he had the same opinion as me, that Otoshi would be a mislynch. The thing is, we dissagreed in that he thought a no-lynch would be worse than lynching a townie, a view that most of you seemed to agree on. The fact that you're trying to get someone else investigated instead of trying to rebuke my read on you is more telling to me than anything else. I have strong feelings on you and probably Rain being two of our three scums. If we have a DT, it should be pretty clear who he needs to check up on. Whichever one of you two look closer to getting lynched on day 3 already has my vote. + Show Spoiler + On March 07 2012 02:52 trackd00r wrote: Well, that lynch didn't go good. I agree with blubb, investigating Rain would be pretty much a waste. Instead, I suggest that the vigilante (if there's one) should consider shooting him. But as he might be mod killed any now, I don't know if is better to wait for a replacement before taking any further actions. Anyways, we can't ignore him completely, since there is a very good chance that he turns scum, specially now that Oto flipped town. I have some suspicions against gunman103. Will post analysis shortly. Pablols is lurking pretty hard. If we had a vigilante, there would probably have been already two deaths in one night. That or he's choosing to not shoot anyone or our medic is a miracle worker. Also, I would appreciate to hear what you say on gunman. I feel Rain and Dimmu are strongly implicated as mafia and he would fit the picture well as the third mafia (though currently I'm reading him as null, at least without taking Rain and Dimmu into account). I had suspicion on Maverick, but the way he seemed emotionally invested in taking down Otoshi took him a bit off my radar. | ||
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On March 07 2012 05:36 Maverick32x wrote: Brubbles- Can you explain a bit more about why you think Dim is suspicious? I see a lot of flipflopping in willz's posts, and I do see where Dim is coming from with his reasoning. I don't think that is completely fabricated.... Also I'll take a moment to look through Dim's filter.... His posts are pretty 'pro-town'... He actively defended Mementoss (who was town), and is really anti-lurker in his posts. Also he matches your suspicion on Rainmaker.... How do we start to look at a lurker such as Rainmaker to try to figure out what our next steps are? Is this dependent on a DT? If we start to look at lurkers as our next target, Rainmaker is the only one that really fits that role the best... As for being suspicous of me- I was really stubborn with that Oto lynch, and I regret that. I tunnel-visioned my way into a town lynch and I'm not pleased with that.... I wrote a big post on it yesterday. Here it is again: + Show Spoiler + On March 06 2012 23:56 Sbrubbles wrote: I do see a case for lynching Rain when day 3 comes, given his lurking habit, his lack of good posts even when he was posting and his vote for Otoshi on day 1. BUT, knowing that we can still afford a possible mis-lynch tomorrow, I think the DT should investigate Dimmu instead, and here I'll make my case: + Show Spoiler + On March 03 2012 06:50 DimmuKlok wrote: Bandwagoning with Sufficiency actually had nothing to do with Sufficiency at all. When Sufficiency posted that he wanted to lynch Beorn, I quickly agreed and threw my vote on him. This was done in order to pressure Beorn out of hiding. In the post I hint at exactly what I want him to do, and that's to "contribute and say who he feels is a good lynch candidate". I suspected him as scum so his response was going to give me a lot of information. I even make another post to put the pressure back on Beorn and get some information out of him here: My vote was not initially intended for Beorn, nor did I intend to keep it on him, because I didn't think he would get enough votes before the deadline. I'm changing my vote to Oto, who I originally intended on voting for. 1) Begins day 1 voting for blubbdavid, the biggest lurker at the time "just to bring him out of hiding" and, once there were 4 votes on Otoshi (thus a good chance of getting rid of him), he switches his vote "to who he originally intended"! In fact, he doesn't explain anywhere why he's voting for Otoshi, except for saying it was who he originally intended on voting for! + Show Spoiler + On March 04 2012 09:57 DimmuKlok wrote: My idea and Mementoss's idea are actually very different. His idea was to force everyone into coming up with 2 very detailed cases on 2 different people. There were lots of problems with this plan. One of which he states right after he tells everyone the plan: All town need to participate and the cases need to be damn good or they will get accused. This meant that the mafia simply didn't have to participate and all it took was one town player to not put in the effort. If you were going to participate you needed to put in a lot of effort, therefor not many people contributed and the idea died. Not surprising considering 4 people didn't even put in the effort to vote, and at least one was town. This idea has none of those problems. You can choose to benefit the town by making a more detailed post on your scum read, but you don't have to. What you do have to do is post. Don't, and we'll simply lynch you. I'm not going to lie, the major problem with this plan is that we can't lynch someone that we have a case on unless we are nearly 100% sure he is mafia. Simply because we need to have consequences for not participating, and that's getting lynched. Even that one problem is minor, though. A townie will not want to be lynched, therefor he will at least post. That will continue to narrow down the list of lurkers until you would have to be stupid not to accuse someone in order to not get lynched. If everyone is smart, everyone will post, and we can get new information out there and everyone participating. In the chance that we have 1-3 lurkers when it comes time to vote, we'll have to pick which we feel is the best to lynch. I don't see that happening though with how easy it is to keep yourself from getting lynched(Post a scum read). When and if there are no lurkers, we can go back to voting for who you want to lynch. 2) Night 1 and Day 2, besides once again not explaining his vote for Otoshi, his posts are either filler, or the discussion he had with Mementoss about lack of participation, which is not exactly what you would call "productive". But hey! At least he hedged his bets! + Show Spoiler + On March 06 2012 04:08 DimmuKlok wrote: Oto is either a useless towny or mafia, I'm voting for him. I tried to get more information out of him before we lynch him, but he apparently has 0 reads... + Show Spoiler + On March 06 2012 22:47 DimmuKlok wrote: Investigate Rainmaker first and foremost. The others you guys are curious of look like you're trying to find the scum that's trying to stay in the light. If that was the case, I'd be taking a closer look at Willz... Just sayin 3) Besides the potshot at Willz (who I feel is town for not lynching Otto day 1, or at the very least null), he takes to accusing Rain. But Rain is already under heavy suspicion, and is a prime target for tomorrow, so I wouldn't find it strange for at least one of his buddies to bus (sacrifice) him in order to look townish. 4) Also note that there may be a Godfather in the game. If Rain is a Godfather, it would be textbook mafia play to try to get the DT to investigate him. So, in summary, I think we should investigate Dimmu today, possibly lynch Rain tommorow and look for the 3rd mafia. | ||
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On March 07 2012 06:13 Maverick32x wrote: One issue is that Willz took over for Tiystus after Day 1.. so he couldn't of voted for Oto... I hadn't noticed that switch after a lot of votes on Oto though.. thats a good read. So you're suggesting that he assumed that Oto would of been lynched that first day, so he just changed to avoid suspicion.. pretty much what he is accusing Willz of doing? I do get a feeling that mafia would accuse others of behaviors that they themselves are doing... I must not of read that post thoroughly, so I appreciate the repost... fits in well with your latest..... No, my line of thought is that he switched into voting for Otoshi to try to lynch him after it was clear that a bandwagon was under way (like he did day 2). Of course, it wasn't enough on day 1 because we had 3 people (discounting myself and Otoshi, of course) who failed to vote. His initial vote was Beorn. For reference: + Show Spoiler + On March 03 2012 10:03 kitaman27 wrote: Day One Final Count OtoshimonoU -6 trackd00r Mementoss Rainmaker5 Maverick32x DimmuKlok gunman103 Beorn1 -1 Sufficiency Tiystus -0 No Lynch-1 Sbrubbles Pablols, Tiystus, OtoshimonoU, Beorn1 have all failed to vote. I will be pming them to see if they require a replacement. If I'm unable to do so, they will be modkilled. + Show Spoiler + On March 06 2012 10:35 kitaman27 wrote: Day Two Tally OtoshimonoU -7 blubbdavid Maverick32x OtoshimonoU gunman103 Pablols DimmuKlok willz22912 Sufficiency -0 No lynch -1 Sufficiency Rainmaker5-2 Sbrubbles trackd00r Rainmaker5 still need to vote. Thirty minutes remain | ||
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