EPTcan i be a replacement?
Student Mafia (New/Newish players welcome)
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
can i be a replacement? | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
I will post some detailed thoughts in the morning good job so far though | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
xtfftc: has made some glaring contradictions and that he owes and explanation Grackaroni highlighted this in an earlier post and i think you (xtfftc) need to expalin: I've posted more on Jay, look at Day 1 but it's mostly one off remarks (such as pointing out how Jay justified not voting for a lurker by saying that we shouldn't lynch a lurker because a lurker isn't around to defend himself) and I don't see how the last quote was me suggesting that he is probably town. It was me pointing out the scumminess of EY's reasoning, and at that moment it was to be expected that mafia would jump on the Jay bandwagon. At the moment I think that Jay is more likely to be scum because if he's not, we have EY, xsk, and Adam left, and I consider Adam to be the worst lynch out of the players I am suspicious of (Adam, Jay, EY, xsk, BKE) you explicity state that you think Jay is the most likely to be scum and grack makes this point On December 09 2011 10:16 Grackaroni wrote: Show nested quote + Here he even admits that Jay is more likely to be scum but his vote still remains on Ey215. . . I stated my reasons for keeping my vote on EY. Your reasoning is pure WIFOM in this case. Jay was obviously going to be lynched hours before I posted the bit you quoted, so what could a townie do in this situation? Vote for Jay and be accused of sheeping after BH and bandwagonning (remember Tunkeg and his analysis of the Bbyte lynch?) Or vote for someone else and be accused of not voting for the obvious mafia. you call his "reasoning" (i see a simple statement of fact) "pure WIFOM" well where is the pure wifom in this? On December 08 2011 06:45 xtfftc wrote: You lynch your best read. You don't start looking for excuses for when the player you're voting for flips town. You didn't want to get into the "pissing match" with BH, you were forced to by his aggressiveness. And using lurking as a proof that you haven't been staying under the radar is a pretty solid point if you're building a case against yourself. You were out of the picture when every good mafia wants to be: during the last ~12 hours before the deadline, so you did a great job. I answered to him after he mentioned me and I don't see how his death changes anything. What is there to be said about EB? His play was arrogant and trollish. He was obviously a veteran smurfing, who thought it would be fun to frustrate the townies (refusing to vote just when he was asked to the most active player in the game just because he felt like irritating us) and then giving us a great demonstration of how a town player has to prove his innocence when attacked. He posted a great case that lacked obvious flaws - and then he was happy to go inactive again. He came back to announce that he's found the whole mafia team - but didn't bother providing any analysis on two of the players he accused. And he also made sure to notify us that the Bbyte lynch was pushed easily... Before the game started (and also in the Looking For Coaches thread) some veterans suggested that there should be some experienced players in this game to help teach the newbies how to play properly. Instead we get a cocky smurf. There was no way to make a good guess about his intentions, which is the reason why I'm not all over Hassy at the moment. EB was good enough to make us do anything he wanted to as long as he was interested in putting a serious effort in the game, and I have no reason to believe that his intentions were pro-town, even after his flip. Ask veterans such as Sandroba and Palmar and they will tell you that the first thing a townie should do is to establish his/her innocence. The first thing EB did was to frustrate town and lose us half a day. So what good would it do to town to focus on him again instead of doing our own analysis? All you're achieving with this is disruping the discussion. you have stated that you should only vote for mafia and that you should lynch your best read and yet in the above quote you do not do that here earlier you didn't On December 06 2011 06:20 xtfftc wrote: Pretty much all I have on Adam is based on two of his posts that push pro-mafia agenda. Now that I think about it, I have a much stronger case on ey215, even though I decided to leave him for day 2. I don't have enough to convince Adam on my own and it seems that most of the others are happy to lurk or to vote for lynching Bbyte. Here's what I wrote on Adam earlier in case you're lazy and can't be bothered to check it out: + Show Spoiler + I'll check the thread again before going to bed. you have a strong case on a player but you would rather not post it and you would rather vote for someone other than your best read? seriously? so you vote for BByte On December 06 2011 07:26 xtfftc wrote: I'm going to bed, so I'm voting for Bbyte. It's not ideal but it's better than some unpleasant last minute surprise. ##Unvote: xsksc ##Vote: BByte why? "its better than a last minute suprise" you just jump on a bandwagon On December 09 2011 05:24 xtfftc wrote: Yes, albeit a short one that doesn't cover some bits. I feel uneasy about the way no one objects on lynching Jay. It feels like Day 1 all over again, which makes me wonder whether Jay might actually be town - even though mafia are probably just bussing him at this point. So my vote stays on EY to remind people that we have to catch the whole mafia team and not just one member of it. another contradiction it also doesn't make sense that "to remind people that we have to catch the whole mafia team" could be a reason for a vote i also think your case against eye is weak i shall soon explain why. | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On December 11 2011 02:29 BroodKingEXE wrote: I do not have anymore time to defend myself as I need to study for finals. I urge everyone to come up with a plan when I do not turn up mafia. I say do not blame the players that created the case against me, but blame the people who used their cases and did not check for errors. I need to develop my skills about gathering evidence in the game and was not active enough in the scum hunt. I know that the case against me was pretty solid though, as I was not good in double checking my evidence. Well,GG BroodKingEXE we still have time do not martyr yourself now if you are town try to contribute and then the things you have said can be considered if you flip town or try to contribute and find us a scum or two to lynch instead there is also enough time for you to write a reasonable defence | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On December 09 2011 02:06 Tunkeg wrote: Probability lynch I think probability should be discussed more before going into a day 2 lynch. Some of you may call this WIFOM and just ignore it, and probably it is somewhat WIFOM, because it involves alot of speculating. we would be right in calling it wifom because it is, speculating isn't helpful is is only marginally better than RNGing votes by pointing out that it may be wifom and not useful he has provided an excuse in case he is called out on using poor logic.If you are trying to help town then why would you make a post full of logic that you think can and possibly should be ignored. A townie cannot help town if people ignore them they also cannot be lynched. Being ignored does not help people scumhunt The first thing I will speculate about is number of scum involved in the lynch on BByte. As I've mentioned before I belive the probability that 2 scums joined in on the lynch is the biggest: so what? we still don't know,there are either 0 scum 1 scum or 2 scum and we have no way of knowing with any certainty which is the correct number so this assumption very unreliable if you allowed to speculate: well yes you are but it is not helpful! you make the assumption that scum were trying to secure the lynch on Bbyte but it is also possible that the lynch was entirely down to town and you then decide that in your opinion 0 scum would be unlikely. This is complete guessworkand it is not helpful to speculate about mafia's actions in such a fashion.It is pure wifom and such not be taken seriously As I belive BH and Velinath is the most green out of these (as of now) I will leave them out. And I will also leave myself out. This leads me to believe that there is 2 scum out of xsksc, gracken, ey215 and xtfftc. Seeing that ey215 and xtfftc is attacking eachother, and the way they are attacking eachother I don't see it as likely that they both are scum. Seeing that Grackorini is somewhat joining in on xtfftc's analyses: based on nothing but the unreliable thought that 2 scum voted for bbyte you then decide that because you think it is likely (which it isnt) you then omit your two best town reads (which have not been comprehensively justified and who could still be scum) and omit yourself (which is not consistant if you are looking at probabilities but is understandable) and decide that we should lynch from the 4 others who lynched bbyte. because you think that 2/3 scum would vote for the lynched townie on day1 you are assuming that bbytes alignment and flip makes the player that voted for him more likely to be scum but it just doesn't. And therefor I don't think both of them are scum. he assumes that the above statement means that they both can't be scum, this s somewhere between bad logic and wifom xtfftc have been voting on xsksc and had him as one of those he suspects as scum throughout the game. I don't think both of them are scum. for almost the same bad reason he assumes that xtfftc and xsksc(me) cannot both be scum So this leads me to think that the most probable scum pairings of those in on the BByte lynch is: xsksc(Starshard)/Grackorini xsksc (Starshard)/ey215 Grackorini/xtfftc the unreasonable ruling out of two scum pairings doesn't even have any relevance to his point. I say we should lynch anyone of these four, it would give us a high probability for actually killing a scum player. this last part is amusing because the chance of scum is either 0% 25% or 50% and i dont like those chances especially when they are based upon unreasonable and not useful speculation. You recommendation is more likely to lynch a townie and that would benefit mafia. I do not see how what you are recommending benefits town in anyway it would only serve to further a mafia agenda. the points i have added have been italicised (for clarity) and underlined (for my ego)+ Show Spoiler + actually it was also for clarity + Show Spoiler + this joke was for my ego i really think that the shoddy reasoning in this yourcould be an attempt at trying to hurt town/ help mafia. i think that tunkeg could be a good lynch candidate unless he can explain himself. if you have a town read on him then why do you think that he would behave this way? i strongly recommend you review your stance | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
BKEXE if you are town please help!! because lynching a town today would really hurt our chances and people have so confidently voted for you they have barely been posting there has been very little discussion so far and so a mislynch would make today a huge waste of time that could have been spent scumhunting | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
it was stupid | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
replace stupid with unreasonable | ||
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layabout
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my take the bbyte lynch: it was not a great lynch because the reasons given for voting for him were weak and his behaviour did not make him seem likely to be scum. but it was a day1 lynch and he was lurking and i do not think it is reasonable to expect to lynch mafia on day1, he was lurking and there weren't strong cases for alternate candidates. so i accept that you all lynched him do i believe that 0,1,2,3, scum voting for him was equally probable? no. do i believe a specific circumstance say 1 scum is more likely? no because we do not know who the mafia are and we do not know how they think or what their plan for the game is. the only things we know are that they are in the thread they win when they are equal or greater in number to town. the rest of our information comes from the thread from what we read in the thread. any thoughts or suspicions about what the mafia will do are of very limited usefullness because speculation about how mafia will leads to "circular reasoning that results from trying to determine the choices of an opponent who acted with full knowledge that their behavior would be subject to scrutiny."(from mafiawiki) this is why your guess is unreasonable mafia know that people may look at voting patterns and so they can try to act unlike what you expect or like what you expect because they expect you to expect them to act unlike how you would expect them to. trying to follow through such reasoning is unhelpful as it leads nowhere and as such reasoning dependent on the expected behaviour of the mafia has no value + all of the stuff about poker is useless fluff + calling my post desperate do not address the point i made instead you are asking me to explain myself but you have not justified your actions which were anti-town and supported by poor assumptions | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
if they were your town reads they should be included but you could argue that because you think that their behaviour is town-like and that they would be the worst lynch choices on the list you should not exempt them becuase that defeatd the point of lynching players who voted for a town because for some (bad) reason you think 2 of the total players voting for that town should be mafia because that is what you expect mafia to do. by eliminating players from the total you eliminate potential mafia and further reduce your chance of hitting scum. (which was 50% in the optimal situation) | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
so i decided to see why, you made a post in which you began by saying people would ignore you and then went on to make worthless speculation and unjustified assumptions i feel that i have highlighted why this is this case very clearly i cannot believe that you have not adressed any of my arguements but have instead tried to attack my possible motivation and you have mostly just provided fluff It was based on assumptions, poor is your words. But the entire game is based on assumptions. justify them then!don't just say i made assumptions we need to in this game that is an entirely worthless statement as was your poker "analogy" you just make general statement about making reads and how reads are more valuable the more time passes. This has nothing to do with what you had written if you make an argument based on reasoning then you better have solid reasoning because otherwise your post holds no weight it is not helpful to town (unless it reveals that you are scum) because your entire argument relies on reason that does not withstand scrutiny i think we are past the point of this being a useful exchange because you clearly don't understand or are ignoring the point that i have made explain yourself and then try to help town by analysing behaviour | ||
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layabout
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. I believed that lynch went as it did because scum players jumped on the bandwagon, /facepalm | ||
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layabout
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First of, nice to see you being active. Secondly - the answer to your question is in the very post you have quoted. It is pure WIFOM because the logic behind the vote I am accused for can apply to both mafia and town: why are you trying to add wifom logic? if jay was your best read which you said he was then you should have voted for him, you even said so the fact that you didn't and the fact that you had already said that players in general should lynch their best read is highly contradictory. how does that involve wifom? And anyway, jumping on a bandwagon is another thing that 3/4 of the town is much guiltier than I am of, yet you only attack me for this. Why would you do such a thing? I was pretty much the only one to try to push for a lynch that was based on analysis, yet you target me for "jumping" on a bandwagon? i attack you because you were happy to be on a day1 bandwagon but on day two when their was a much stronger case for a player being mafia and when you openly stated that you that that player was probably scum and yet you decided to vote for somebody else. and one of the reasons you gave was to "avoid sheeping". yet you had already been on a andwagon. I did post it hours before posting the bit you quoted. Seriously. the bit i quoted was dated for me as "On December 06 2011 06:20 xtfftc wrote:" before then this is everthing you had to say on eye215: + Show Spoiler + 100% agree, this was pretty much my point anyway. And there's a lot of similar views expressed later in the thread by others, so can we say that we've reached consensus? If we don't get a good case, we lynch a lurker. Dude, no need to be so defensive. Blazinghand is trying hard to organise the town. I don't agree with some of his ideas but they are stuff to be discussed. There is absolutely no need for a townie to react like you did. Blazing's play so far is great. On December 04 2011 21:23 xtfftc wrote: ......what? So we all agree that lurking is bad for town. No one denies that. We need all townies to post, so that mafia are pressured into we're able to distinguish town from mafia. And then you express your concerns that if we somehow manage to get all townies to post, we would have trouble figuring out "the scum lurkers over the town lurkers"... If they don't lurk, we are going to have reads on them and figure out their alignment. No townie would suggest that this is a bad thing. It works but I think it's better if you have ¤tpage=All at the end of each link ey215 I'm still not happy with and it wasn't just his defense that made me suspicious. But perhaps I am tunneling him a bit too much indeed. Unless he proves me wrong, he's going to be my main target on Day 2. if this was the case against eye215 before that you are refering to. i just didn't veiw it as a case because it just isn't. However, how come you quoted just half of my explanation? This is the full one: your argument is that you could as a player who could be town or mafia vote the best lynch candidate (like the majority of players) and be accused of sheeping, or vote for someone who isn't obviuos mafia but because you have the same options as town or mafia then you could take the second and anti-town option because you could have done so with either alignment? as town you should take the pro-town (and non-contradictory) option because that is pro town play. you acted i an anti-town fashion and your justification is just a statement of options, which isn't a justification. even though mafia are probably just bussing him at this point. So my vote stays on EY to remind people that we have to catch the whole mafia team and not just one member of it. Of course it does make sense. We had the whole town sheeping for Day 1 and Day 2, so it is necessary to have proper discussions from now on.And what it is that I am guilty of exactly? Are you suggesting that I was trying to somehow save Jay by refusing to vote for him, even though there were like 10 votes for him a few hours before the deadline? so now your reason was for discussion? you don't leave your vote for discussion you vote for mafia! you know this but you didn't do it your behaviour is totally contradictory and you are just trying to hide it by bringing up wifom and discussion which are inexcusable reasons for placing a vote jay had 7 votes and refusing to vote for him given the opinions that you had expressed does not make sense from a town-based standpoint. scumhunting for the next day's vote is one thing but to intentionally waste your vote or try to make people vote for someone other that the best candidate is scummy.were you trying to save jay?i can't say, but you definitely were not trying to lynch him. even though mafia are probably just bussing him at this point. So my vote stays on EY to remind people that we have to catch the whole mafia team and not just one member of it. does anybody in this game think that that makes any sense and is a reasonable thing for town to do??? | ||
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layabout
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layabout
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I never said that Jay was my best read. I said I consider a mafia team consisting of Jay, BKE, and EY or xsk more likely than the alternative. And I already explained the WIFOM perspective to you 've posted more on Jay, look at Day 1 but it's mostly one off remarks (such as pointing out how Jay justified not voting for a lurker by saying that we shouldn't lynch a lurker because a lurker isn't around to defend himself) and I don't see how the last quote was me suggesting that he is probably town. It was me pointing out the scumminess of EY's reasoning, and at that moment it was to be expected that mafia would jump on the Jay bandwagon. At the moment I think that Jay is more likely to be scum because if he's not, we have EY, xsk, and Adam left, and I consider Adam to be the worst lynch out of the players I am suspicious of (Adam, Jay, EY, xsk, BKE) liar liar liar you say you are uneasy about the lynch being easily decided but feeling uneasy when facing uncertainty is not a reason to not follow the obvious course of action. If you had genuine reservations about what was happening you should have tried to come up with a better alternative and you should not have tried to pursue a worse course of action because doing so is anti-town. additionaly i have already explained that the wifom perspective is not relevant so an explanation of it is similarly worthless posting that looks like a contribution (which in itself is scum like). This isn't enough for early Day 1 it isn't a case!!!you have not shown why his actions would be anti town and why they would make him likey to be scum. You are a liar. I wasn't happy to be on the Day 1 bandwagon and it is obvious from all the effort I put in my attempts to prevent it. And where is my motive for not voting for Jay? Seriously? If I'm mafia, what is my motive? Are you saying that I knew that someone was mafia and outright refused to vote for him in order to look more suspicious after the red flip? Did I try to save Jay by not voting? Anyone with half a brain would know that he was dead a few hours into Day 2 - and yet I decided not to switch to him for ~36 hours in order to gain absolutely nothing out of it? i fail to see how i have "lied" im not suggesting a motive i suggesting that your actions are anti town, trying to come up with a motive in this circumstance is unreliable and unhelpful + Show Spoiler + On December 06 2011 07:26 xtfftc wrote: I'm going to bed, so I'm voting for Bbyte. It's not ideal but it's better than some unpleasant last minute surprise. ##Unvote: xsksc ##Vote: BByte As for the rest of your post, it's a gameplay opinion that I disagree with. But even though I think that you are wrong, I can see your point. All I have to add on the subject is that I explained my vote at the time and no one had an issue with it, so I think that the problem is in you - or you're trying to turn it into a problem because of your red alignment. the game play opinion is that you should act in the best interest of town and that you should vote for the player you th ink most likely to flip scum. my point is that YOU also said that this is how you SHOULD vote and yet YOU HAVE NOT done.so | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
best try to get someone else lynched rather than do that. SCUM | ||
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layabout
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but right now i think that 1 player is not making sense and that their behaviour is scummy therefore ##Vote: xtfftc | ||
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layabout
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On December 12 2011 03:58 Tunkeg wrote: lol @ layabout. You are quite a piece of work, you come out guns blazing, with purely one dimensional cases against me and then on xtfftc. Me you want to lynch based on my probability lynch, xtfftc you want to lynch based on his reasoning behind why he didn't vote jay. Sure both me and xtfftc should be looked into for beeing on the wrong side of both the lynches that have taken place. But really your stuff is just weak. The most funny though is that after you first started the case on xtfftc: + Show Spoiler + On December 11 2011 02:21 layabout wrote: i need to take some time to try to understand Broodking 's post in the meantime i think that xtfftc: has made some glaring contradictions and that he owes and explanation Grackaroni highlighted this in an earlier post and i think you (xtfftc) need to expalin: you explicity state that you think Jay is the most likely to be scum and grack makes this point you call his "reasoning" (i see a simple statement of fact) "pure WIFOM" well where is the pure wifom in this? you have stated that you should only vote for mafia and that you should lynch your best read and yet in the above quote you do not do that here earlier you didn't you have a strong case on a player but you would rather not post it and you would rather vote for someone other than your best read? seriously? so you vote for BByte why? "its better than a last minute suprise" you just jump on a bandwagon another contradiction it also doesn't make sense that "to remind people that we have to catch the whole mafia team" could be a reason for a vote i also think your case against eye is weak i shall soon explain why. You proceed to post this on BKE: And then you continue your case on xtfftc without adding anything to it, and then vote for him. Basically doing the same thing as he did on the jay case. Are you fucking kidding me??? I think you are trying your best to derail the BKE lynch. Your moves are truly desperate. i want you to look at this post and explain to me the errors you have made then apologise and lets move on | ||
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layabout
United Kingdom2600 Posts
On December 12 2011 05:11 ey215 wrote: Ok, no fancy quotes no fancy analysis but I do have some opinions to share about the last 24 hours of posts. layabout I disagree with both of your cases vehemently. Remember, Xt has spent most of the last two days trying to get me lynched, but I think his vote patterns make sense. Day one, he's right he begrudgingly voted for BByte. Day two he made a case on me and placed his vote there. While I do agree it's best for the town if his vote goes on Jaybrundage I think at least his reasoning of keeping a vote on me when it was obvious Jay was getting lynched is good reasoning. I do however have an issue with him being worried about looking like he was jumping on a bandwagon. Don't worry about what it looks like when you vote, just try to make sure the vote makes sense and is highly likely to kill scum. If anyone looks bad from yesterday's vote it's Tunkeg, however you're "case" against him is really not particularly good. Maybe it's just a misunderstanding of what he was saying, but really his poker analogy is relevant (not filler like you called it) and an approach you can take to a game of limited information. It is folly to not use all information you get when coming to an educated decision on who you are going to vote for. I do agree he was wrong in listing only certain potential duo's of scum, but not wanting to put your own name on a list like that is probably pretty understandable. I think the townies that have played best so far are those that are not playing not to get lynched, but are playing to win and I imagine (not sure) it's a common new town mistake to play the other way around so they therefore appear scummier than they really are. You could be right, one or both of those guys could be scum but those cases aren't nearly convincing enough. to clarify: i am not saying that tunkeg is scum i am not making a caes against him i was just pressuring him based of actions which i believe could only be anti-town + the analogy isn't relevant because it does not deal with the questions i asked!!! it is general garbage about mindset not an answer, that is why i deem it not relevant, a summary of his defense and actions "mafia is a guessing game im using probability, they use probability in poker and im using that similarity to compensate for the fact that my assumptions were unreasonable and i proposed we should lynch randomly into 1 of the 4 players that voted for the lynch target because i dont think the others are scum but i cant prove that and because i think that 2 scum voted for the lynch but we really have no idea how many voted for the lynch" my main problem is what he proposed and how he got there. i was not satisfied with his answer. but i think that xtfftc is very likely to be scum and that we should lynch him. bolded part: how on earth do you not see how his behaviour is contradictory? his attitudes towards the day1 and day2 lynchings are completely incompatible and not justifiable. | ||
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