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Active: 5003 users

Metalopolis prone to close positions, why?

Forum Index > SC2 General
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I apologize to everyone in this thread for taking the OP seriously. My mod senses are definitely off today.

-- Chill
the p00n
Profile Joined September 2010
Netherlands615 Posts
February 15 2011 19:45 GMT
#1
Whenever I play Metalopolis, it's usually close position - both in ladder and in custom. I found this pretty weird so I actually started testing it against the computer. At first I wanted to do just 20ish games but there was only a small tilt in close position's favor, so I actually launched 100 games (which takes a lot longer than you'd originally think, trust me) and I found that Metalopolis is prone to making you spawn close positions. I have the same feeling with Lost Temple and wanted to test this as well, but I grossly underestimated the time and boredom tolerance launching 100 games required, so I'm only going to show you the results I have; Metalopolis.

From the 100 games I've launched:

72 close positions
11 close air
17 cross

To me that's pretty conclusive. Does anyone know why there may be a bias towards spawning in close positions?

User was banned for this post.
ch33psh33p
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
7650 Posts
February 15 2011 19:46 GMT
#2
This would be pretty interesting if someone ran a sample size of say, 100,000 games, and it still ended up with a 7:1:2 distribution.
secret - never again
Lonyo
Profile Blog Joined December 2009
United Kingdom3884 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-02-15 19:48:35
February 15 2011 19:48 GMT
#3
Would be interesting to see LT as well indeed.
HOLY CHECK!
skirmisheR
Profile Joined August 2010
Sweden451 Posts
February 15 2011 19:48 GMT
#4
I think 100 games is enough if you get that extreme results from it, but really 72? That's sick, could someone else do the same thing? Or we could count every time we play metalopolis/LT how many close/far positions we spawn on
I can jungle Pudge, can you?
nkr
Profile Blog Joined November 2010
Sweden5451 Posts
February 15 2011 19:49 GMT
#5
100 games is really not a big enough sample size, sorry
ESPORTS ILLUMINATI
Moonstruck
Profile Joined February 2011
20 Posts
February 15 2011 19:49 GMT
#6
get a bigger sample size before you state something
try a 1000 to 10k
Toast.yum
Profile Joined May 2010
51 Posts
February 15 2011 19:50 GMT
#7
nkr: Yes it is
fabiano
Profile Blog Joined August 2009
Brazil4644 Posts
February 15 2011 19:52 GMT
#8
Would be easier if you could parse the replay file and extract that information.

No one is ever going to manually launch 1000 to 10000 replays -_-
"When the geyser died, a probe came out" - SirJolt
Playguuu
Profile Joined April 2010
United States926 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-02-15 19:52:54
February 15 2011 19:52 GMT
#9
Anyway to parse replays for positions? I think that would be the easiest way to come to any conclusion. Seems anecdotal to me, unless others are willing to take more or larger samples.

Ninja'd^^
I used to be just like you, then I took a sweetroll to the knee.
magha
Profile Joined March 2010
Netherlands427 Posts
February 15 2011 19:52 GMT
#10
On February 16 2011 04:50 Toast.yum wrote:
nkr: Yes it is


Taking sample sizes of 100 would prove that nobody in history has ever won a lottery.
Dimagus
Profile Joined December 2010
United States1004 Posts
February 15 2011 19:52 GMT
#11
The problem could be two things:
- The random number generator is not as random as Blizzard thought
- The algorthim to generate starting locations is flawed

or it could be both.
DamnCats
Profile Joined August 2010
United States1472 Posts
February 15 2011 19:54 GMT
#12
Ya try to spend the next 3 days of your life doing nothing but making metal and leaving over and over so we can get some reliable data please ;D

But no that is quite odd indeed.
Disciples of a god, that neither lives nor breathes.
the p00n
Profile Joined September 2010
Netherlands615 Posts
February 15 2011 19:55 GMT
#13
If anyone wants to conduct further testing plz be my guest.
TigerKarl
Profile Joined November 2010
1757 Posts
February 15 2011 19:56 GMT
#14
I can not report the same ratio of spawning locations for the about 100 games i have played on that map. To me it seems totally random
NonY
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
8751 Posts
February 15 2011 19:56 GMT
#15
On February 16 2011 04:52 magha wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 16 2011 04:50 Toast.yum wrote:
nkr: Yes it is


Taking sample sizes of 100 would prove that nobody in history has ever won a lottery.

I hope you are agreeing with Toast.yum and making the additional point that an appropriate sample size is specific to the situation.
"Fucking up is part of it. If you can't fail, you have to always win. And I don't think you can always win." Elliott Smith ---------- Yet no sudden rage darkened his face, and his eyes were calm as they studied her. Then he smiled. 'Witness.'
emythrel
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United Kingdom2599 Posts
February 15 2011 19:57 GMT
#16
On February 16 2011 04:48 skirmisheR wrote:
I think 100 games is enough if you get that extreme results from it, but really 72? That's sick, could someone else do the same thing? Or we could count every time we play metalopolis/LT how many close/far positions we spawn on


The thing is that while there are 3 possibilities of positions, close ground, close air, cross. Each time you load up a game it has equal chance to roll any of them, completely independent of previous rolls, that means it will never go 33% under any sample size..... it could be 99% close ground positions in theory, thats the wonderful thing about randomness. While its not completely random, no RNG can be completely random, only as random as you can program it to be.

If I did a 100 game sample, and someone else did the same, the most likely result would be that our spawn ratios are completely different. I know that for the most part when i play metal I get cross positions, but you might air air positions, and playerX gets a fairly even mix. All of our results are completely independent of the other and therefore under a RNG we should get different results each time we run a test.

The sample size needed to get an RNG to even out distribution of events is unfathomable, billions if not trillions or perhaps a google games could have to be loaded before it evens out
When there is nothing left to lose but your dignity, it is already gone.
Fallen33
Profile Blog Joined April 2007
United States596 Posts
February 15 2011 19:58 GMT
#17
100 games is a pretty good sample size.. 1000 would confirm though
"Glory is fleeting, but obscurity is forever." - Napoleon Bonaparte ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Frozenserpent
Profile Joined September 2007
United States143 Posts
February 15 2011 19:58 GMT
#18
People are fucking retarded and need to learn some basic statistics before they say something like "not big enough sample size".

Even 50 can be sufficient to obtain a p-value < 5%.

In this case, p-value is definitely low enough to reject the assumption that it's 1/3rd.

Obviously if you want the exact ratios you'd want to expand on the larger sample size, but this is conclusive to determine that it's not 1/3rds.
magha
Profile Joined March 2010
Netherlands427 Posts
February 15 2011 19:59 GMT
#19
On February 16 2011 04:56 Liquid`Tyler wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 16 2011 04:52 magha wrote:
On February 16 2011 04:50 Toast.yum wrote:
nkr: Yes it is


Taking sample sizes of 100 would prove that nobody in history has ever won a lottery.

I hope you are agreeing with Toast.yum and making the additional point that an appropriate sample size is specific to the situation.


That's exactly what I ment, yes
RoyalCheese
Profile Joined May 2010
Czech Republic745 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-02-15 20:00:07
February 15 2011 19:59 GMT
#20
because : [image loading]!
Kennigit: "Chill was once able to retire really young, but decided to donate his entire salary TO SUPPORT ESPORTS"
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