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Metalopolis prone to close positions, why? - Page 8

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I apologize to everyone in this thread for taking the OP seriously. My mod senses are definitely off today.

-- Chill
BeefyKnight
Profile Joined November 2010
United States127 Posts
February 15 2011 21:09 GMT
#141
You would think the Progamer knows what he is talking about in relation to spawn points on a certain map... Btw Tyler fighting!!!
LoLAdriankat
Profile Blog Joined August 2010
United States4307 Posts
February 15 2011 21:09 GMT
#142
Instead of looking at the OP's sample, why don't we look at the spawn positions in tournaments such as the GSL and MLG? Just thinking about it, I know Metalopolis doesn't have a 72% chance of spawning close positions.
philcorp
Profile Joined August 2010
Canada32 Posts
February 15 2011 21:09 GMT
#143
I ran a 1 sided p-test on the sample given and got a value of 7.93271*10^-11, id be more likely to believe statistics collected blindly by a third party than by those posted in any public poll though.
Duka08
Profile Blog Joined July 2010
3391 Posts
February 15 2011 21:12 GMT
#144
On February 16 2011 06:09 Seronei wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 16 2011 06:05 Zelniq wrote:

it's true he could have done it in singleplayer and it wouldn't show in match history apparently, it also avoids the 10 second countdown timer so it makes sense. I'm still very doubtful that he took the time to load 100 games and load 100 replays (to see spawn location, or instead wait to scout his opponent's base). I think we should assume bullshit unless he provides replays, they should autosave

You can join as spectator with 2 bots and it's much faster. It doesn't really take that much time to go through 100, shouldn't take more than 30seconds per game with this method.

This is actually a magnificent idea, I'd be willing to do a few hundred if I found a sweet method and contribute. With replays if needed. Will post back soon I hope
JoeSchmoe
Profile Joined May 2010
Canada2058 Posts
February 15 2011 21:12 GMT
#145
On February 16 2011 06:05 Zelniq wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 16 2011 05:58 Ludwigvan wrote:
On February 16 2011 05:56 Deadeight wrote:
On February 16 2011 05:53 Zelniq wrote:
Has nobody even questioned whether or not the OP is telling the truth? smells like bs/trolling. can someone check his match history for 100 games on metal recently? he claims he's HUARGH (http://sc2ranks.com/eu/717496/HUARGH) on EU, division Scion Uncle http://sc2ranks.com/div/67191/division-scion-uncle

his most recent match history (http://eu.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/717496/1/HUARGH/matches) doesn't show any metalopolis games.

sure seems he's full of it. also I really doubt someone actually hosted a game, waited 10 seconds for it to start, scouted close positions (sent OL to close-air), or instead left and loaded replay, rinse and repeat 100 times.


He could've done it via single player not multiplayer custom game.

Maybe in singleplayer you spawn differently than in multiplayer.

it's true he could have done it in singleplayer and it wouldn't show in match history apparently, it also avoids the 10 second countdown timer so it makes sense. I'm still very doubtful that he took the time to load 100 games and load 100 replays (to see spawn location, or instead wait to scout his opponent's base). I think we should assume bullshit unless he provides replays, they should autosave


you can use sawnoutofmemory (cheat) to disable fow to see spawn positions that way but I agree that the OP might be trolling.
Deadeight
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United Kingdom1629 Posts
February 15 2011 21:16 GMT
#146
On February 16 2011 06:05 Zelniq wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 16 2011 05:58 Ludwigvan wrote:
On February 16 2011 05:56 Deadeight wrote:
On February 16 2011 05:53 Zelniq wrote:
Has nobody even questioned whether or not the OP is telling the truth? smells like bs/trolling. can someone check his match history for 100 games on metal recently? he claims he's HUARGH (http://sc2ranks.com/eu/717496/HUARGH) on EU, division Scion Uncle http://sc2ranks.com/div/67191/division-scion-uncle

his most recent match history (http://eu.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/717496/1/HUARGH/matches) doesn't show any metalopolis games.

sure seems he's full of it. also I really doubt someone actually hosted a game, waited 10 seconds for it to start, scouted close positions (sent OL to close-air), or instead left and loaded replay, rinse and repeat 100 times.


He could've done it via single player not multiplayer custom game.

Maybe in singleplayer you spawn differently than in multiplayer.

it's true he could have done it in singleplayer and it wouldn't show in match history apparently, it also avoids the 10 second countdown timer so it makes sense. I'm still very doubtful that he took the time to load 100 games and load 100 replays (to see spawn location, or instead wait to scout his opponent's base). I think we should assume bullshit unless he provides replays, they should autosave


I'm starting to agree with you.
My results so far don't agree. If so it's a pretty good and unexpected troll, certainly wasted a lot of my time.
Zelniq
Profile Blog Joined August 2005
United States7166 Posts
February 15 2011 21:16 GMT
#147
On February 16 2011 06:09 Seronei wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 16 2011 06:05 Zelniq wrote:

it's true he could have done it in singleplayer and it wouldn't show in match history apparently, it also avoids the 10 second countdown timer so it makes sense. I'm still very doubtful that he took the time to load 100 games and load 100 replays (to see spawn location, or instead wait to scout his opponent's base). I think we should assume bullshit unless he provides replays, they should autosave

You can join as spectator with 2 bots and it's much faster. It doesn't really take that much time to go through 100, shouldn't take more than 30seconds per game with this method.

That's true, didn't think of that good catch. However then it very well could just be something to do with how the game generates AI spawn locations and wouldn't be conclusive for player spawns, no? Shouldnt the OP have told us about that?

anyway if the chance to spawn close positions was that high, after all this time and metalopolis being one of the most popular maps, people would have certainly noticed that by now.
ModeratorBlame yourself or God
jiabung
Profile Blog Joined December 2007
United States720 Posts
February 15 2011 21:19 GMT
#148
On February 16 2011 06:03 hypercube wrote:
Show nested quote +
On February 16 2011 05:59 Ihle wrote:

The page gives you both, but interestingly, it is more likeley to get 72 of 100 than getting 73 or more of 100, this means that the z value must be enormous.


You mean, it's more likely you get exactly 72 than 73 or more?
Surely, that can't be right

It's right. Probability isn't logical in these extremes. The chances of something like this happening are so astronomically low that it doesn't make sense to us because we never observe it in real life. The chances of you getting 79 instead of 72 is over a million times more unlikely for instance.

Also, based on personal experience I find the OP's claims pretty dubious.
BisuDagger
Profile Blog Joined October 2009
Bisutopia19339 Posts
February 15 2011 21:19 GMT
#149
On February 16 2011 04:52 Dimagus wrote:
The problem could be two things:
- The random number generator is not as random as Blizzard thought
- The algorthim to generate starting locations is flawed

or it could be both.


Random generators are based of the current time of your computer. No matter how complex they are made up, there is always an influence on what the outcome random number is. I will say this, random is random no matter how much coincidence you get. The result you have been given don't really prove anything. It was a fun test and interesting that your results came out so heavily in favor. But lets break this down;

2 ways you can be close by air
2 ways you can be close cross ways
2 places you are in a cross position

2 in 6 chances that you have far positions; //it is was more likely that you are not in a cross position through plain logic
ModeratorFormer Afreeca Starleague Caster: http://afreeca.tv/ASL2ENG2
Annq
Profile Joined November 2010
Germany104 Posts
February 15 2011 21:21 GMT
#150
On February 16 2011 05:53 Zelniq wrote:
Has nobody even questioned whether or not the OP is telling the truth? smells like bs/trolling. can someone check his match history for 100 games on metal recently? he claims he's HUARGH (http://sc2ranks.com/eu/717496/HUARGH) on EU, division Scion Uncle http://sc2ranks.com/div/67191/division-scion-uncle

his most recent match history (http://eu.battle.net/sc2/en/profile/717496/1/HUARGH/matches) doesn't show any metalopolis games.

sure seems he's full of it. also I really doubt someone actually hosted a game, waited 10 seconds for it to start, scouted close positions (sent OL to close-air), or instead left and loaded replay, rinse and repeat 100 times.



Matches against AI (singleplayer) arent listed in the match history? Atleast i think so
Myia
Profile Joined May 2010
173 Posts
February 15 2011 21:23 GMT
#151
I am interested if this is just a fluke by the OP, or if it has some merit to it. I am running 100 games right now (watching a film) and will post results when I am done. All will be done multiplayer, so people can see that I did infact make 100 games after I am finished.
I am the best SC2 player in the world! Except those that play Random, Protoss, Terran, or Zerg :(
Deadeight
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United Kingdom1629 Posts
February 15 2011 21:23 GMT
#152
Also 72% is massive. If it was 50% I'd say maybe the system blizz uses spawns one player, and if the second player is chosen to spawn in the same position they just get dumped in close positions. But I trust blizzard not to do something so stupid.

So either way 72% cannot be accurate, if it was anywhere near 72% as Zelniq said it would definitely have been noticed by now.

That still doesn't it's more likely to spawn in one position, but right now I'm at basically 1/3 for all positions.
Aberu
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United States968 Posts
Last Edited: 2011-02-15 21:26:01
February 15 2011 21:24 GMT
#153
There are 4 possible ways to be close positions on meta, that leads me to believe that this sample size is not large enough to make a conclusion.

Basically the 2 positions, and different combinations in 1v1 for those positions (red at 6 oclock or blue at 6 o clock and so on).

So it's not even just 2 possible combinations, it's 4 out of however many for the others. That is an important piece to put in the test.

A good way to do it would be for someone to make a replay parser to test this, and us all submit replays to one person from metalopolis.
srsly
Deadeight
Profile Blog Joined September 2010
United Kingdom1629 Posts
February 15 2011 21:26 GMT
#154
I feel a bit naive now for not considering trolling before Zelniq suggested it.
rS.Sinatra
Profile Joined May 2010
Canada785 Posts
February 15 2011 21:26 GMT
#155
Given the result, the sample size actually isn't bad at all. If it was a 40-30-30 split then maybe you would be a bit more worried about whether or not this is a significant result. However, with a 72% favour to close positions, its pretty hard to deny a relationship.
www.rsgaming.com
Ludwigvan
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
Germany2371 Posts
February 15 2011 21:28 GMT
#156
I dont really know how it works, but if first the position of player 1 is created and then player 2, we have 12 possibilities and not 6.
kzn
Profile Blog Joined June 2007
United States1218 Posts
February 15 2011 21:30 GMT
#157
Couldn't one load Metal up in yabot and -r a couple hundred times, then check the replay? IIRC it would stay in one replay.

I suppose we'd have to be certain the spawn choice mechanism is the same in yabot though, I have no idea how one would check that.
Like a G6
Zelniq
Profile Blog Joined August 2005
United States7166 Posts
February 15 2011 21:32 GMT
#158
Lets assume the OP is telling the truth and really did test it 100 times, unless he tested it 100 times with 2 humans in a 1v1, it wouldn't say anything conclusive about player spawn locations, as it could just be a bug with how the game spawns AI opponents, especially if he obs'd 2 AI's facing in 1v1 (for faster scouting of the spawn locations).

Myia, that would apply to your tests too.
ModeratorBlame yourself or God
johlar
Profile Joined September 2010
Sweden165 Posts
February 15 2011 21:33 GMT
#159
I was thinking before that it would be great if blizzard changed some maps to work like Shakuras, and when I read this :@@@@@
Pyrrhuloxia
Profile Blog Joined May 2008
United States6700 Posts
February 15 2011 21:34 GMT
#160
I'm currently doing my own batch of 100 tests... it's slow going and I'll report back.
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