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On August 25 2011 19:21 Mig wrote:
Oh btw once again you have completely avoided answering my questions about foolishness' plan. Wtf?
Do you think mafia tried to divert the day2 lynch or not. If so how did they do and who did it.
I'm not avoiding anything.
The answer is both yes and no. I think mafia diverted attention away from you, but not all on one target (that'd be too suspicious.) Primarily I think some went to xt and hiro, AFTER townies had established scum reads on them. Once it was between you and hiro, the mafia didn't have to do anything because our bad town play basically doomed us to lynching hiro. Hiro made a bunch of mistakes and fake claimed, and just in general seemed scummy. We lynched him based on that and that lynch was a real good opportunity for mafia to blend in. Granted, I also believe that some of you stuck out, but that's only in hindsight.
Right now I have decent scumreads on 3 people; the strongest being you and Rayzor, and then the third being Brownbear. I'm not super concerned with the last 3 yet, but I have an idea of where to look, and I know we'll receive more information soon. Vain is a likely fourth to me. I think Brownbear is suspicious because he diverted attention from you at a critical juncture. xt had 4 or 5 votes when he voted for him, and you had something like 6. After that point, hiro began appearing scummy and IMO the mafia really didn't need to do anything to protect you.
Also, earlier today I was really convinced supersoft and Palmar were scumbuddies, and I'm slightly suspicious still of supersoft, but after the night actions came in I'm significantly less so. It just seemed like they were attempting a voteswitch with how they acted at the end of day 2, and hiro certainly appeared to me as scum. The order of events just seemed weird at the time, but in hindsight that seems too obvious for scum to out themselves like that by attempting such a blatant vote switch. Of course, hindsight is 20/20. Although I'm rather upset that Palmar was town and I was reading scum on him, I'm glad that mafia targetted him rather than someone else, otherwise I'd probably have stuck my vote on supersoft because of my gut. Right now I'm trying to base my vote as much as possible on objective evidence.
I'm going to try and take a small break today. I've posted my analysis of Mig and I encourage you all to read it. I feel like over the past day or so my opinions have swung back and forth a lot (and this may be due to my newness) and I don't want to see any more mislynches. This time, though, I feel like we have a very strong candidate for scum.
Anyway, I'm off to bed (it's almost 4 am here). Just thought I'd drop in to see if there were any responses before I headed off.
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United States4714 Posts
BB voted for xtfftc when there were 6 votes on me 3 on xtfftc and 2 on hiro. Rayzor was the first person to vote hiro. You could have easily looked at the voting thread to see this.
This was over 24 hours into day1. So according to you over the entire first half of the day the mafia's only effort to save me was these 2 votes? Mafia didn't bother to defend me whatsoever and that was their only effort to divert the bandwagon away from me?
You/foolish are incredibly biased. Can you really not see what is right in front of your face? Nobody tried to save me. You are finding connections where there are none. The fact that you even answered yes and no shows that really you have absolutely nothing here.
Foolish has said repeatedly the scum team is very unlikely to let one of their team members just die. So I want to know where was the effort? After looking back through day2 does anyone really think an effort was made to save me by anyone? You guys are taking a couple random votes of whomever you think is scummy and deciding that must mean they were trying to save me without any logic behind your conclusions.
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Mig, if only you put as much effort into scumhunting as you did into defending yourself, we probably would have won this game already. About 90% of your defense on the past page and a half consists of some variation of "What? Your analysis is wrong, how could you even think that. chaos13 is scum." You fail to properly address any of the points against you, and you fail to convince me that you are not mafia.
I'm getting a little case of the heebie jeebies from this post.
On August 25 2011 16:12 Barundar wrote:
Why does hosts always give kurumi a gun? At least he can be ignored now.
The roleblock was most likely used on db to stop him from getting saves off.
I should have time to reread thread today. Mig did a pretty good job defending himself yesterday, and the case against brownbear is by far the best posted so far, so I'm more inclined to vote for him more than mig.
@mig: chaos13 played a way more passive game as scum in tf mafia, i don't see his actions this game fitting that pattern. What's your thhoughts on chaoser?
Way too many points covered way too briefly without enough explanation.
-Pointless comment on Kurumi, as well as anti-town. No player should be ignored.
-Speculation on RB
-Excuses himself for not having read the thread yet, claims BB is scummier than Mig. Not unreasonable, but I disagree with his conclusion that Mig did a good job defending himself. He did a lot of defending himself, but not very well.
-He has a town read on me when I am aware that I have been somewhat scummy this game. There are a few others who don't think I'm mafia as well, but the reasoning Barundar has is a little strange. Just a gut feeling.
Barundar has now reached my suspect list.
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United States4714 Posts
+ Show Spoiler +Although I'm rather upset that Palmar was town and I was reading scum on him, I'm glad that mafia targetted him rather than someone else
Possible scum slip if there is a scum vigilante? Kurumi claimed the palmar kill. 4 people died last night why would you think mafia shot palmar WBG?
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Oh and in case nobody has realized, we are at LYLO right now.
Seems strange with 21 players left, but 6 mafia vs. 15 town with 3 kills each night. If we don't get mafia today it's only a matter of time til it's done.
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United States4714 Posts
I addressed every relevant point against me. Chaos show me where the mafia team tried to divert the day2 lynch away from me. You claimed that foolish proved I am scum with his trap. So ok show me where.
And you haven't responded to my case against you at all. You didn't respond to palmar's case either.
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Alright Mig. I'm not in danger of being lynched, but I'll act as if you are town and respond to yours and Palmar's cases.
Palmar first. I just grabbed the summary of it because you can easily see from it that most of his points are no longer relevant.
On August 24 2011 08:57 Palmar wrote:
a) He complains about bad town atmosphere but does nothing to improve it, in turn becoming part of the problem
b) He's basically abstaining from voting, both on day 1, and now again on day 2, by throwing his votes on random people that aren't in danger of being lynched.
c) He hasn't actually pushed a single lynch hard the entire game.
a) I was unable to have thread presence all day, or I would have improved it.
b) Didn't end up doing that, I actually voted for who I thought was scum.
c) Not on D1 or D2, because I know I'm not very good on those days. Pushing Mig pretty hard today, and I'm getting my other suspects known and analyzed as well. This is common for my play. The first few days I'm not very active, just trying to wrap my head around spam and everything else, and it all falls together starting on D3.
Now yours.
On August 25 2011 17:14 Mig wrote:But that being said I still think chaos13 is a better lynch. I agree he seems slightly more aggressive this game but most of that aggression only came after palmar/jackal had called him out. Before that he was pretty inactive, he would just pop in write a post then disappear. He has barely commented on any of the main lynches that have gone on. And normally chaos is a very logical player. But look at how wrong all of his reasoning has been this game. And I mean would town chaos really freak out and immediately omgus jackal/palmar/myself for voting him? It seemed like a panicked overreaction when normally as town chaos is very level headed. If that weren't enough look at palmar's very good analysis of him here http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=254174¤tpage=66#1311One last thing. Why did jackal die last night? Was anyone else getting blue vibes from him? I wasn't. Had he been especially active or provided any strong analysis? No. So why was he shot instead of someone like Curu or you barundar? Show nested quote +On August 24 2011 08:52 Jackal58 wrote:Actually fuck it. I was saving this for the end of the night phase but Chaos has not called me scummy this game. The only other times he has done this is because he was on the scum team. I know it sounds lame but he's so damn consistent at it it's funny. I have been watching to see if he chose one of the three main targets over the others but his votes are off in the toolies. Ya I'll lynch Chaos. But I do know he is at work.  Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 08:29 Jackal58 wrote:
Hi iGrok
Pyo
Palmar
RayzorFlash
nard
chaos13
Barundar
BrownBear
One is a townie but I don't know which. Jackal was convinced chaos was scum and 100% would have followed along with palmar's plan to lynch chaos today. Pretty good motivation to kill someone. I am hunting you down chaos!
You say that my reasoning is wrong and illogical. Okay. How does that mean I'm scum? I've ended up being really busy this week, unfortunately. I'm also not very good at wading through the mess of the first day or two and figuring things out. Rather than just stating that my reasoning is poor, I would like you to explain exactly how it proves me to be mafia. Town can have off games too, and not be as good at analyzing.
What would mafia have to lose from killing Jackal? The medics were focused on Foolishness (hopefully) so they had a good chance of getting a proper kill on Jackal. He's also a strong player, and it provided a perfect opportunity for one of the townies suspicious of me, or a mafia member to frame me and cast me in a suspicious light for it.
What do you say Mig? Will you actually go into some detail in your analysis, or will you just leave it at blanket statements?
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United States4714 Posts
I have stated why your logic was wrong. Your initial attack on palmar was completely incorrect. You accused him of ruining the thread. Palmar's play at the start of day1 lead to a lot of information and got people scum hunting. You turned it around to cast doubt on him saying he was scummy for it. Your post concerning me/chaoser/foolish. You pop in say all 3 of us are scummy then disappear. After last nights lynch you pop in to omgus me/jackal/palmar. You haven't pushed a lynch this entire game. Instead all you do is show up here and there to cast doubt on the only players doing any analysis. You haven't actually pushed any of your lynches because you don't want the backlash. Your play this entire game has benefited the mafia.
And are you criticizing me for not going into depth on my analysis? Have you contributed a single original thought against me? You haven't provided a single example for why I am scummy. You haven't explained how foolish proved my scumminess at all. I mean at the very least WBG wrote up a case against me. You just completely bandwagon voted me. Yet you claim to be pushing pretty hard for me today just lol. You haven't put in an ounce of effort this entire game.
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Ah, I thought Kurumi was confirmed town after his shots etc. But now I remembered this:
Cult Assassin (Scum Vigilante) armed with a single unholy dagger, the assassin is equipped to bring down even the strongest of foes. Starting after night 1 the assassin may fire his only dagger at a target. This counts as a single kp.
so he isn't confirmed at all. This whole thing "I expected SS to be scummedicprotected" etc. I don't buy it. He thought he could accuse me easier than Palmar that's it.
I believe if Kurumi was town, he would have been shooting someone else that isn't as active as Palmar and I.
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What I saw Palmar doing was causing chaos and disrupting the town. I am completely unable to focus in a game dominated by spam and random accusations.
Concerning you/chaoser/foolish, I explained why I felt you guys were scummy. Then I went to bed, which is why I disappeared. Cast doubt on the only players doing analysis? That is a blatant lie and I am very unimpressed that you just tried to use it in a case against me. If you really think it's true, then go back through this entire thread and make a list of every single time a player has made an analysis. Spoiler that list. Then filter my posts and quote every time that I accuse one of them or cast doubt on them for doing analysis. If I accuse every single player who has done analysis in this game, then you are correct. Your accusation of me is flimsy to begin with, and you just broke it in half with that statement.
Yeah, I've got one or two original things against you. Check out this post, which you can read near the top of page 81.
"Mig, if only you put as much effort into scumhunting as you did into defending yourself, we probably would have won this game already. About 90% of your defense on the past page and a half consists of some variation of "What? Your analysis is wrong, how could you even think that. chaos13 is scum." You fail to properly address any of the points against you, and you fail to convince me that you are not mafia."
Nobody else had picked up on that yet. It's not a lot, I know, but it's more evidence for me to feel comfortable with lynching you. There's no point in me repeating the same things that everybody has said.
Now until you actually explain how my actions have been scummy, I'm going to quit responding to you, because all we're doing is cluttering up the thread. If you truly feel that I am mafia and worthy of a lynch, then use my posts as evidence. Go into detail. This post was getting better, but it was still weak. I know from playing games with you as town that you really know how to dig into a player's posts, and I haven't seen any of that happening.
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United States4714 Posts
zzzzz using semantics for why my argument is invalid against you. Obviously I am aware plenty of people have done analysis this game, how many have done good analysis? You have attacked all the people who have written the best analysis this game, is that better? And your only explanation for why every single person you push for is an active townie is well everyone has bad games. Solid explanation really clears up my doubts!
You say I haven't put effort into scum hunting. Really? Read my case against DB and compare it to anything you written this entire game.
Btw thanks for once again providing 0 examples of my scummy play this game and not explaining how foolishness' plan proved I am scum.You used it as one of your main points in casting your vote for me. Would be great if you could actually explain it. Or did you just blindly sheep onto foolish? All you have done is prove what little effort you have actually put into the game.
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I don't like Kurumi's behaviour and reasoning. He spent a lot of time to make sure everyone knew that he is vigilante and he's going after Supersoft.
+ Show Spoiler +On August 24 2011 05:37 Kurumi wrote:
supersoft, maybe instead of asking xtfftc over and over again what he thinks about me and nard, maybe voice Your own opinion?
oh wait
You can't outsmart the bullet hammer On August 24 2011 05:46 Kurumi wrote:then don't I will smash him with my hammer no prob On August 24 2011 05:51 Kurumi wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2011 05:50 Palmar wrote:
Thing is, Hiro always lurks hardcore as scum and contributes almost nothing. The reason I don't think he's going to change that meta is that it's worked very well in the past for him. This game he seems very open and speaks his mind quite freely. I have only one hammer, don't cover Your brobro supersuperbro On August 24 2011 07:24 Kurumi wrote:
Well guys, then hiro protagonist will try to outsmart the bullet during the night. Oh wait, it's a HAMMER. There's a link between supersoft+Palmar and hiro protagonist, in my opinion it's a very good lynch given that AND he is scummy as heck and I do believe he is scum. On August 25 2011 00:36 Kurumi wrote:
supersoft won't make it tomorrow, I sincerely apologize, but dead scum is something we need. On August 25 2011 00:45 Kurumi wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 00:38 supersoft wrote:
Well kurumi, I thought that you wanted to lynch me if hiro flips red. Do You think I am dumb? Just because You weren't on wagon which led on townie lynch does not make You a townie, same goes with lynches going on mafia. Sure, You CAN be Town, but there are many shenanigans which could happen. On August 25 2011 05:12 Kurumi wrote:
I totally don't need medic protect as vigilante ;u; sob On August 25 2011 08:39 Kurumi wrote:
Hi iGrok *waves*
I just want to see supersoft flip. I need to wait till 4am >_>
Surely if he wanted to trick mafia to RB him or heal Supersoft, he would have been a bit more subtle to make it less obvious that he is setting up a trap? Instead, he kept on repeating it again and again, as if there wasn't enough spam in the thread already.
Pretty much everyone had town reads on both Palmar and Supersoft. Yet, Kurumi based his shot on the assumption that at least one and perhaps both of them were mafia. If he gets blocked, Supersoft is red; if he doesn't Palmar dies. When he didn't get roleblocked, he decided to stick to Supersoft nevertheless. Moreover, he claimed that :
There's a link between supersoft+Palmar and hiro protagonist
Hiro flipped town, Palmar flipped town - and he still wants to lynch Supersoft?
He claimed he was trying to trick mafia to RB him/protect Supersoft but if he was intending to go after Palmar anyway, why did he accuse Palmar in the first place? Surely he wouldn't want a mafia player to know that he is next in line.
His only relatively decent analysis was on Navillus in early Day 1:
+ Show Spoiler +On August 20 2011 23:41 Kurumi wrote:
I dislike Palmar's random fingerpointing and not dedicating his vote to any of the candidates presented, why?. This is not promoting pro-town atmosphere, though he made a case on BrownBear. I think Palmar would be a good DT check or just person to look at tomorrow.
I think we should lynch Navillus. He jumped on quick Palmar bandwagon with shoddy reasoning ("he is shouting kill DropBear").
Let's recap what Navillus have done:
-say I am trolling / will troll / am useless / anti-town in the first hours of the game all over again
-vote for me just because of that
-unvote me without any reason (besides "You started to contribute")
-tried to coordinate blues (Town KP should shoot lurkers, really good deal for Mafia, because hatters will have useless bombs planted and vigis will waste their only one shot they have)
-disappeared during the most active time of the day.
##vote Navillus
I'll see what Sevryn has done. Palmar is not good lynch today, I feel his lynch is a bit Kavdragon-ish from PYPI I've played.
Since then he has hardly contributed anything but one-liners and pointing the finger at a lot of people. Which is even more suspicious considering that he accused Palmar of the very same thing:
On August 20 2011 23:41 Kurumi wrote:
I dislike Palmar's random fingerpointing and not dedicating his vote to any of the candidates presented, why?. This is not promoting pro-town atmosphere, though he made a case on BrownBear. I think Palmar would be a good DT check or just person to look at tomorrow.
Kurumi hasn't been promoting pro-town atmosphere. He also isn't dedicating his vote to any of the real lynch candidates at the moment and is instead going after Supersoft.
When he got asked to justify his post on Mig, he redirected the question by basing it on what Foolishness and DB without providing anything on his own. He suggested that he has to re-read the thread but never expanded on this.
+ Show Spoiler +On August 24 2011 04:55 Kurumi wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2011 04:51 Curu wrote:On August 24 2011 04:49 Kurumi wrote:On August 24 2011 04:48 Curu wrote:
Can we get a hiro wagon going? This guy's looking a lot worse than xtfftc.
##Unvote
Vote hiro protagonist nah let's lynch Mig You don't even have a post about Mig and suddenly he's your lynch target? Why? Cause he's the one with the most votes on him? We have important Foolishness+DropBear link on that lynch, couple of players who are here for a while (chaoser and Jackal58), the more we know about these people (who are quite active and well-spoken) the better for us. I dunno I should re-read the thread since I've got time now.
He had a clash - or "clash" - with Mig, which served to strengthen the case against Hiro.
+ Show Spoiler +On August 24 2011 09:31 Kurumi wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2011 09:28 Mig wrote:On August 24 2011 09:22 xtfftc wrote:
Do you have anything more to add to this? I am not going to claim to know for sure whether hiro is town or not. But everytime I have played with him he has been a lot more passive/quiet. And when he is scum he seems more afraid to give his opinion. That leads me to believe he is more likely town than someone like chaos who has shown poor logic and hasn't actually put any effort into the game. You dont find hiro scummy at all ? There's nothing what felt wrong about his posting ? He was caught on posting with scum agenda , three people including You are trying hard to deflect his lynch , everyone of You seem to pull a meta argument and add nothing from this game itself .
His posts while both Hiro and Mig were viable candidates urged everyone to pick Hiro over Mig. When Palmar tried to push Mig instead of Hiro, he opposed him as well:
On August 24 2011 09:47 Kurumi wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2011 09:46 Palmar wrote:
I prefer mig.
Chaos gets to die another day. Of course You prefer MIG because Town might not get enough votes for hiro and we get a no lynch .
Also:
On August 24 2011 09:48 Kurumi wrote:Show nested quote +On August 24 2011 09:47 hiro protagonist wrote:
how can anyone not see that Im a Vet? Thanks for claiming roleblocker or other power role , MIG is just a goon.
On August 24 2011 09:52 Kurumi wrote:
Vet claim is here to save hiro who has mafia power role , probably roleblocker for mig who is just a goon.
So, he accused Mig without providing a proper analysis; then he pushed Hiro, a townie, over Mig; then he shot Palmar, another townie; and now, when there are a lot of voices against Mig, he is going after Supersoft.
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On August 25 2011 20:54 Mig wrote:+ Show Spoiler +Although I'm rather upset that Palmar was town and I was reading scum on him, I'm glad that mafia targetted him rather than someone else Possible scum slip if there is a scum vigilante? Kurumi claimed the palmar kill. 4 people died last night why would you think mafia shot palmar WBG?
I forgot about kurumi. No scum slip.
Although I'm not certain of kurumi's alignment. I lean town, but there isn't enough info to make a conclusion there.
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I would just like to point out that large walls of text aren't the most welcoming sight when you get home.
The principle of parsimony plix :<
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I'll start by saying that foolishness made a very convincing post about BB. At this point I'm leaning toward BB and Mig both being scum. DB flipping kind of lends him credence - doesn't mean he's necessarily right, but at least he's not trying to fool anyone.
On August 25 2011 17:14 Mig wrote:
Jackal was convinced chaos was scum and 100% would have followed along with palmar's plan to lynch chaos today. Pretty good motivation to kill someone.
I am hunting you down chaos!
that is total WIFOM. In fact, isn't this precisely the scenario used to explain how WIFOM in mafia games works? it feels like Mig's grasping at straws here.
On August 25 2011 20:56 chaos13 wrote:
Oh and in case nobody has realized, we are at LYLO right now.
Seems strange with 21 players left, but 6 mafia vs. 15 town with 3 kills each night. If we don't get mafia today it's only a matter of time til it's done.
Um... that's not LYLO... we have at least 2 days of no mafia lynches before lylo - not saying that we can afford to keep killing town, but there's no need to panic. "it's only a matter of time til it's done" was just as true before the game even began... Are you trying to blue-fish?
Both chaoser and Mig feel scummy to me, although based on their interaction with each other I'm not sure they can both actually be scum. I'll stick with my vote from yesterday.
##vote: Mig
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herpa derp... i meant chaos13, not chaoser...
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Hah - I see it now.
Oh you. You had me convinced. So convinced.
Kurumi, Vain, Brownbear, Mig, supersoft - 4/5 are scum. Take your bets ladies and gentlemen.
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To be formal about it, I have changed my mind, and decided that Kurumi is scum.
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On August 26 2011 03:36 iGrok wrote:
To be formal about it, I have changed my mind, and decided that Kurumi is scum.
Yeah I can die, why not. I mean, I was convinced that two people are scum, got one lynched and shot the other one and they both flipped Town. I can help You lynch Mig - he is in that half-dead circle of weirdness and switching which I read as anti-town.
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Mig - in my opinion, you're using the 'lynchpin' of who can prove that scum 'tried' to divert the lynch off you when that doesn't really matter. What you're not taking into account is that if town is doing it for them, they don't have to. They can want something to happen, subtly do things, without specifically and obviously 'trying' to do something. ESPECIALLY since MOST of the people on xtc lynch (imo) are town.
Foolish's trap wasn't who voted xtc, but who specifically did NOT mention you during the whole debacle. Even through your defense (unless I'm mistaken) those people didn't mention you at all. You're taking his case out of context.
I'm convinced. Mig is Scum.
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EPT
