EPTAlthough strange...I remember at one time thinking Trotske was mafia, but don't recall why.
TL Mafia XLIV - Page 79
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
Although strange...I remember at one time thinking Trotske was mafia, but don't recall why. | ||
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BrownBear
United States6894 Posts
You're wrong, but not for lack of trying. I applaud you for the effort, though. | ||
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wherebugsgo
Japan10647 Posts
On August 25 2011 10:26 Foolishness wrote: And iGrok everything you need to know is in my long post up there. Just build off of that. Although strange...I remember at one time thinking Trotske was mafia, but don't recall why. It may be because I posted analysis of Trotske. You can filter my posts and look for that if you'd like; I pointed him out when most other people had forgotten about him. Also, I feel like I must reiterate that I'm no longer convinced that Palmar is town. You yourself, foolish, said that he has a tendency to accuse his fellow scum when he is mafia, and when I looked at his post history when he was mafia I noticed that exact thing. If you think BB is mafia I think it's still possible palmar is too, despite the fact that Palmar was pursuing BB's lynch. To all of us, it flew a bit under the radar because his lynch effort never seemed serious. Later, BB defended Palmar because he claimed that Palmar's tunnelling of himself was beneficial to the town by sparking discussion. In hindsight, how can you say that? I think it was detrimental to the town, as it ended up confusing us and causing mistakes. Sevryn made a big blunder real early and he paid for it quite dearly. | ||
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
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Kurumi
Poland6130 Posts
On August 25 2011 10:49 Foolishness wrote: Conveniently I will probably die so I won't be able to respond to you. But I hope someone else carries on my legacy. They can't kill me, You and DropBear at once. One of us will live. | ||
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Kurumi
Poland6130 Posts
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GMarshal
United States22154 Posts
Day 3 ![[image loading]](http://i.imgur.com/JZAhb.jpg) As the sun set over the horizon and the the villagers headed back to their houses, one particularly brave man, more of a boy really, stayed out. Palmar stood, facing the massive monument that was the tree of thorns, and bemoaning the death of his adoptive father Ver. He raged as he considered the possibilities, who could be leading this cult, how they had so far managed to elude the town, when a noise behind him startled him. Palmar turned quickly, and saw a dark figure standing behind him. "Who is it!?" Palmar yelled "are you here to kill me too? Just like you bastards killed Ver?". Palmar was charging towards the figure when a knife took him between the eyes, splattering the floor before him with green blood. "Ashes to ashes, dust to dust" the figure whispered, as he stepped over the corpse and headed into the night. Two women huddled in a tent on the other side of town, InserT_FreQ had come to see Jackal58 to get his fortune told, to try to figure out what the future held. Jackal58 cast the first card from the tarot deck, which came up death. Jackal58 and InserT_FreQ looked at each other, fearfully, knowing this was not a good omen, when the tent suddenly burst into flames. Jackal58 was the first to get out, running straight into the arms of a massive monstrosity of a man, who, with a single groan of effort crushed her head with his massive hand of iron, splattering the earth around him with green blood. InserT_FreQ ran out the back, knowing how the cult would operate, she ran into the night, fear painted on her face. After all these years, after abandoning the cult, they had come here? and were going to kill her? She ran and ran, straight into her house, where she was met with a noxious smell, a smell somewhat familiar, the smell of death. She never saw exactly what ripped her legs off, she just felt a sudden flash of pain as her blood seeped out of her body. InserT_FreQ's agony was cut mercifully short by a sudden decapitating blow. DropBear was standing on top of the bell tower, anything to bring him closer to the heavens he still missed, when he suddenly became aware of a person behind him. To DropBear's senses this person smelled foul, he had the stench of evil upon him. DropBear dropped his disguise, flaring up to his full height of 6''6 and his wings flaring out, a blade of cold fire appearing in his hand. The man that stood before him was short, but had a demonic, dangerous aura about him. DropBear knew he was doomed as he took a fighting stance. His angelic senses didn't even notice the black bolt that entered through his skull from behind. DropBear toppled from the tower, his body fading into mist as he fell. Palmar, Little Timmy (Liquidite) has met his end, his vengeance unfulfilled. Jackal58, Gertrude the fortune teller (Liquidite) has had his head crushed InserT_FreQ, Lauren the Fishmonger (Liqudite) has died, without redeeming her sins DropBear, Anfial the Guardian Shield (Guardian Angel) has been vanished from the mortal realm + Show Spoiler [little timmy] + Liquidite - Welcome to TL Mafia XLIV you are Little Timmy, the vagrant orphan, your story is a heartbreaking story of solitude and abandon, till Ver adopted you here in Liquidia, now Ver is dead and you have sworn vengeance upon those responsible, go out now and kill those thrice damned cultists. Vote and vote again until you've killed them all or they have silenced you. + Show Spoiler [Gertrude] + Liquidite- Welcome to TL Mafia XLIV you are Gertrude, the local fortune teller, despite being old and musty and having scammed most of this town, you still love the people of Liquidia and are willing to give your life to protect them, or even better, willing to kill the mafia. Vote every day so you can get back to making up people's fortunes. + Show Spoiler [Lauren] + Liquidite- Welcome to TL Mafia XLIV you are Lauren, the local fishmonger, you dont smell the best and you used to be a member of a dark cult, but ever since you have found your love for sardines you fight on the side of the town, you possess no special abilities save a deft analytical mind and your vote. + Show Spoiler [Anfial] + Guardian Angel - welcome to TL Mafia XLIV you are Anfial, One of the 64 angel wardens of the celestial halls. You have been sent here to protect the citizens of liquidia and keep the cult from gaining access to the scourge. Your symbols are the needle and the ice, and every night you can choose to watch over a citizen, safeguarding them in their sleep with your sheild of frost and fury, keeping them safe from one KP. You walk about liquidia in human guise, pretending to be just another villager, although your eyes burn with the warth of God when you think of the cultists It is now day 3, vote for who you want to lynch! | ||
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iGrok
United States5142 Posts
Lets start this day off right. Kurumi, you couldn't have shot someone a little more scummy? | ||
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Kurumi
Poland6130 Posts
On August 25 2011 11:05 iGrok wrote: ##Vote Mig Lets start this day off right. Kurumi, you couldn't have shot someone a little more scummy? Palmar-Mig-hiro protagonist-supersoft circle was worrying me. Palmar was clearly cluttering the thread when the day was about to end also he aimed to a no-lynch. I feared that supersoft could've been scum doc'd if there is one present. Lack of RB is just wifom. Someone wants to claim rb? | ||
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Kurumi
Poland6130 Posts
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Navillus
United States1188 Posts
Palmar was town, he clearly was positive that Brownbear was scum, he's smart enough to get accurate reads, and everything foolishness said. This should be a no-brainer. As to mig I wasn't here when Mig became suspicious and I'm gonna go look for it and through all of his posts but could someone just explain why he's such a big candidate? | ||
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chaos13
Canada885 Posts
On August 25 2011 11:16 Navillus wrote: ##Vote Brownbear Palmar was town, he clearly was positive that Brownbear was scum, he's smart enough to get accurate reads, and everything foolishness said. This should be a no-brainer. As to mig I wasn't here when Mig became suspicious and I'm gonna go look for it and through all of his posts but could someone just explain why he's such a big candidate? In summary, Mig has not contributed to nearly his usual level, he is apparently "burned out" from mafia but is willing to post actively when he is being voted on, and if you'll read Foolishness' wall of text you'll see a brilliant little voting strategy that confirms Mig's scumminess. Mig as town is extremely helpful, extremely active, and extremely good at scumhunting. With 4 kills last night we really need to be on the ball today. ##Vote: Mig | ||
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chaoser
United States5541 Posts
Take care of mig, then we take care of BB. ##Vote: Mig | ||
Mig
United States4714 Posts
Chaos did you even read my posts from yesterday? Did you see my case against DB? Every person who has voted me foolish/chaoser/you has completely ignored everything I did day2. Tell me how I wasn't helpful yesterday? I actively scum hunted and I provided GOOD analysis. Were my points against DB inaccurate? Was I stretching the truth to try and make him appear scummy? Actually look at my case and ask yourself whether that was a scum or townie driven analysis. And let me ask you something at the end of day2 why did I try and get people to switch to you with palmar/hiro/jackal instead of just trying to get hiro lynched to save myself? I thought hiro was much more likely to be town and you were a lot more likely to be scum. Ask yourself why would I risk my death last night like that if I were mafia? We were virtually tied in votes when we tried to do the switch to you. My play wasn't good day 1 I am good enough to recognize and admit that but I played to the best of my abilities on day2. I haven't seen a single thing pointed out that was scummy from my day2 play. I posted like 50 times if I am scum surely there is something in there right? I mean will anyone actually make a case against me that involves what I have done this game? So please someone tell me how my day2 play was scummy in anyway. Show me where I twisted my analysis around to best suit me or what mafia objectives I was pushing. Anyone with common sense should be able to read everything I did day2 and see I had town's best interests in mind and I put legitimate effort into scum hunting and providing good analysis. Now look at chaos13. Look at how horrible his logic has been this game. Chaos is a very decent player yet look at his targets this game palmar/foolish/jackal/myself. Look how terrible his reasoning for his initial palmar vote was. When we tried to switch to him last night he immediately omgusd and called me/jackal/palmar scum. Jackal/palmar/hiro all pushed for chaos and all have died and flipped green. And has chaos actually seriously pushed for any of his targets this game? So seriously ask yourself is chaos bad enough that he would legitimately think all the people he has targeted were scum? If so why has he put such little effort into actually getting them lynched? Or is he actively trying to discredit the only people providing real analysis. #Vote chaos13 Also wtf chaoser way to not discuss anything I have done this game whatsoever. The only reason you vote for me is because of a retarded "contradiction" that didn't really exist. You completely ignore my day2 play. You have provided absolutely nothing this game besides tunneling me. Am I really the only person to see what bs this is? | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
The first 4 people who voted for xtfftc day2 were supersoft/hiro (green)/wherebugsgo/VE. Which one of them is mafia foolish? You KNOW that mafia were trying to swing the lynch away from me instead of defending me apparently. So tell me why is your other target BB the 5th person to vote for me. What about the others who did it before him? Your trap was a complete and total failure, you know why? Because I am town. All of your assumptions about me have been completely wrong. Your case against me is basically like some retarded kid trying to jam the square shaped block into the circle hole. You are tunneled in on me so hard that you just twist whatever random information you receive into me being scummy. | ||
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
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DropBear
Australia4353 Posts
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InserT_FreQ
United States99 Posts
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Mig
United States4714 Posts
And of the 4 people you listed who didn't give their opinion on me. The only person who was on the start of the xtffc bandwagon was hiro who fucking flipped green! Where exactly are the mafia trying to divert the lynch off of me?!?! I mean am I fucking going crazy here or what? Your trap is the most retarded thing I have ever seen and you use it as proof that I am scum? And chaos pops in to add that it guarantees I am scum? I am honestly tilted by this. Look at my play and tell me how I am scummy. Instead of using 5000 random bits of information that have absolutely nothing to do with me to try and get me lynched. | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
On August 25 2011 10:09 Foolishness wrote:+ Show Spoiler + HUNTING SEASON IS NOW OPEN!! That's right fellow players! After 2 torturous days of trying to find mafia, hunting seasons has officially begun! The target of our illustrious hunt is the elusive and fearful BROWNBEAR ![[image loading]](http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-Y2cN7mKANaY/TVgSfXr783I/AAAAAAAAArA/aSTW4kc1l50/s1600/Brown+bear+C+Ivan+Seryodkin+copy.jpg) I will go through in detail the characteristics of the BrownBear. It is vital that we are all prepared to catch this sneaky fellow, as if we are too loud he will simply run away from our grasp, and if we are not careful he will sneak up behind us and maul (shoot) us. 1) restatement of already said arguments. As everyone should, BrownBear has written paragraphs to explain his lynch votes. Of course, everyone should justify their vote so we know where we stand. But our BrownBear is lacking in that he has yet to make a vote that is uniquely is own and push for it. Let me bring to attention these two posts: + Show Spoiler + On August 21 2011 01:37 BrownBear wrote: And since I should practice what I preach and back up my votes (that much is true, Palmar) here's my thoughts on our friendly neighborhood sevryn: His first post in game, seems rather silly, and is the post he's caught a lot of flak over. To jump in and insta-bandwagon is usually a poor choice. Also, trusting players based off of previous games is a poor choice in general. This looks to me like someone seeing an easy early bandwagon and hopping on it, hoping they can ride out the rest of the day cycle under the radar. Pretty obviously he gets called out on it quickly, and then after a few posts this happens: LOL PRESSURE VOTE JAYKAY GUYZ. Basically, I call bullshit on this for a few reasons: He says he "made up a bullshit reason" but that's not how you properly pressure vote. You pressure vote by building a legitimate case against a guy, try to get others to agree with you, then see how he reacts when there's pressure on him. Not by going "oh palmars right he was right in previous games ALL RIGHT THEN AUTOVOTEBOTS ROLL OUT". It was pretty obvious your vote on DB had no real teeth behind it, as was shown by you backing off the instant someone yelled at you. I don't think you care about catching scum, you just want to find a hole to hide in for the rest of the day. Since then, basically nothing except feebly trying to defend his "pressure vote", and nothing since like page 15 or so. Summary: He definitely wants to hide under the radar. THe instant he got caught in the spotlight he shriveled up and backed off. This to me speaks scum or traitor. Either one is a worthy lynch candidate, and is a hell of a lot better than our usual "fuck around and then lynch a random guy" first day strategy, as palmar so succinctly put it. Vote Sevryn. + Show Spoiler + On August 23 2011 07:17 BrownBear wrote: k, xtfftc: This is interesting. Can't say it wasn't welcome at the time considering how much Palmar was tunnelling me, but I go back to it and it feels rather strange. He wants "one less player who throws meaningless accusations around" sounds a lot like he wants "no players throwing accusations around" because at that point Palmar was really the only guy who was putting any suspicion on anyone (there was the sevryn thing, but that wasn't born out of someone accusing sevryn, that was more born out of someone noticing a pretty obvious slip sevryn made). Thing is, if nobody's accusing anyone, that's a veeery pro-mafia atmosphere. I suppose from the other side, it could be seen as him wanting to clean up the thread a little bit, but generally, going for the guy with the most posts on day 1 means you want to make day 2 a lot quieter - not a very town-centric viewpoint unless the guy with the most posts is really obvious scum (which Palmar isn't). Ok, fair enough, I'm sure you'll come back later in the day cycle to see how the discussion is panning out and see if you're opinion needs changing... Pretty weak and short reasoning to change your opinion and jump on a bandwagon dude. At least your Palmar accusation had some balls behind it. Also he and supersoft get in a small catfight over "please vote lists" which is completely inconsequential, so I'm gonna ignore it. A little more explanation - but still not really any contribution. He wants to see the saga of me/DB/Palmar develop further... At that point it had pretty much settled into Palmar tunnelling me and Dropbear being mostly forgotten. I approve of the apology to supersoft tho. Good sportsmanship there, keep it up!  Shows a little bit of a lack of paying attention to the thread... at that point Sev wasn't a modkill candidate (unless the fact that he had voted but unvoted meant he would get modkilled, but I don't think that's how it works. If I'm wrong, then nvm.) This is "The Big Slip" that everyone keeps talking about. He explains it away as "town kills = kills by town" later, but... ehhh, lets look at it more. The way I think he meant it is, he wanted to use our lynch vote to hit someone else, then let Sevryn get modkilled to take out the maximum number of people that day. This brings us to ye olde "Double Vote Conundrum" from back when double votes were standard in games. Thing about DVs is, sometimes they nail us 2 mafia and we are happy. Sometimes they nail us a mafia and a town, and we're like "ok, cool, I guess." Most of the time, we lynch two town and basically give mafia a free extra kill. In a situation where we have confirmed scum (like a DT check or something), then this can be an alright thing to use. In our case on day 1, the other suspicious players were me (not scum), DropBear (probably not scum), Palmar kinda (not scum), and Rayzor (no clue). This is NOT a situation where we want to kill an extra person - we'd argue a bunch, probably settle on one of the 4 people above (most likely Rayzor, given how he almost got switched onto), and then... what? We'd have possibly 2 town dead for nothing, scum still gets to kill at night, we're one day closer to MYLO than we would have been. Someone's gonna say "But BrownBear, Sevryn was town! How dare you say an extra lynch would be a waste!" Yes, NOW that we know sevryn was town, we should have lynched someone else. DId we know sevryn was town at the time? No. The only person I saw who straight-up said Sev was town was Palmar, and I'm suspecting he just said that cause he was tunneled in on me and wanted everyone else to switch to me. Most other people either thought he was scum, or were convinced enough he could be scum to vote for him over a no-lynch. Towards the end of the day it got a little more vague with the switch, but clearly since everyone switched back, everyone preferred Sevryn to nobody, which is not the tack you'd take if you were 100% convinced sev was town. This is a very random post. Supersoft and QS is a bit of an OMGUS, which he admits. His post about the Bears (it's BrownBear btw ^^ ) contains nothing to back up his accusations, which are wrong to begin with (wasn't going aggressively against inactives at all, posted in ONE POST "hey we should look at the guys who have only posted a few times and have contributed nothing", then Palmar jumped down my throat and made it seem like it was this huge thing that was the centerpiece of my evil plan to mislead and destroy town). Also, there was no chance I was gonna get lynched at that point. Whatever tho bro, continue to sheep along different paths without ever contributing your own ideas. Raises the concept of a no-lynch (this was in the period where everyone was thinking "wait a minute what if Sev's just dumb town?). This is true, he was the first to dump an accusation on Rayzor. Perhaps we should look at Rayzor more, now that I think about it. We did almost lynch him, after all. xtfftc does harp on his accusations of rayzor a LOT from this point out, so I'll gloss over the posts that are literally just "hey guyz i was the first to suspect rayzor did you know I still suspect him?" Although, he goes to mig as a better candidate. Let me highlight the part of his post that makes no sense to me: So you're saying, instead of just voting and going to pass out, he voted late, then decided to switch for the guy you've been pushing all game... and this makes him scummy? I don't follow your logic at all, care to explain this one? After this post, it basically boils down to VE discovering xtfftc's big slip, and xtfftc frantically defending himself. VERDICT: He's focused a LOT on Rayzor and is "very suspicious" of him, but has always seemed to find a better lynch candidate (with really shitty logic usually, i might add.) His HUGE EFFING SLIP OMG is pretty damning - it seems he takes the "kill everyone and hope we hit mafia" approach, which I don't like one bit, because it's not a very town-favored viewpoint. He has yet to really contribute anything besides his Rayzor argument, and he hasn't backed that up too well. He's very comfortable sheeping along behind more vocal townies. He wanted stories that were already fully developed to "develop further". In short, he's very wary of putting his ass on the line, and he's using very misleading and bad logic, and he's slipped. I'm comfortable lynching him. ##Vote: xtfftc In the first spoiler, we see the BrownBear explaining his vote for Sevryn. On it's own there's not much to say about it, and if this was the first accusation against Sevryn it would be pretty legit. The problem is that it's not the first accusation against Sevryn. By the time he made this post, Curu and wherebugsgo had already spent hours explaining why Sevryn deserved to die, and embedded in their arguments (as well as others) where the exact same reasons BrownBear listed. All he did was restate what everyone said. The first post of Sevryn's he quoted was the exact post that started the lynch against him (Sevryn), which was first pointed out by Curu and Kurumi. BrownBear wrote a text wall to explain his vote which can be summed up as "I agree with everyone". And he was here posting in the thread against Palmar when the first accusations on Sevryn were going up as well. Except he tossed his vote on JeeJee with a text wall of analysis (some of which I admit was good). The problem here is that he accused JeeJee (fine) but then never again said a word about him. BrownBear was active for the next ~6 hours and was posting but never against said the name JeeJee. If he really thought JeeJee was mafia, he'd be there trying to push his lynch and get people off the Sevryn wagon. Instead he posted one liners (most against Palmar) and flat out did not say anything of significance to the town. This is where the mafia hide. BrownBear is guilty of rewriting arguments to justify his votes. He's guilty of waiting until there are votes on a person before switching to them (check the voting history if you don't believe me. Both times he waited until at least 5 people were voting before switching to Sevryn/xtfftc). Both times he restated arguments to justify his vote. Even more incriminating, he never pushed hard to lynch anyone. He would make his vote post then write one liners and hardly touch upon his accusation. He seldom talks about who he thinks is mafia, and most of the time it's only when asked when he tells. Also, if I'm right about Mig and Rayzor both being mafia, then this just further incriminates him more as he voted for townie in both situations (when he voted for xtfftc, at the time it looked like xtfftc or Mig was going to be lynched). There will be more about Mig and Rayzor later in this post. 2) Dodging Responses. We must be very wary of the BrownBear, because just when you think you have him cornered he barrel rolls to the side and escapes up a tree! Let's observe two of the instances where is dodging is suspect: + Show Spoiler + On August 20 2011 22:20 Palmar wrote: BrownBear So, I decided to try a new tactic this game. Most towns spend day one arguing casually about policies and then lynch a scummy lurker. This is sometimes effective, sometimes kind of weird. This game I decided to just tear up the thread with some super-awesome tunneling on the first scummy fucker I found, and read responses by other people. There are two people who stick out to me as scummy from their reactions to my tunneling. Namely Sevryn and BrownBear. I feel more confident BrownBear is the scum of the two. There are quite a few things in BrownBear's logic that really scare me. First off, let's take a look at the post that initially raised my suspicions of him: I immediately called him out on the scum logic in his posts. I pointed out that one wouldn't have to make a big stretch to understand the bolded sentence as a free pass to anyone who was being active in the thread. Which conveniently enough also clears BB of any suspicion. He also mentions the possibility of two townies just shouting at each other. The reason this jumps so much out to me is that I used exactly the same logic as scum on day 1 in SNMMII as scum. I pointed out that two loudmouths were probably just townies shouting at each other and then I suggested that the real threat are the inactive people. Deflecting lynches onto inactives is mafia's favorite way of playing day 1. BrownBear's defense of this, is that I'm twisting his words. But can anyone honestly says he understands the bolded sentence in any other way than BrownBear wants to kill off inactive people over people who are active, because the active people will reveal themselves as scum at some point. Next post, after demanding contribution from me: The first sentence is interesting. He makes a point that he did not say what I called him out for, yet he implied it? What's the difference? The mindset he's working in is the same. I ask that everyone reads the post above carefully, and preferably often. Look at what he's saying. He's basically throwing a one-line accusation towards JeeJee in an attempt to divert the discussion off himself and DropBear. The bolded sentence is another one of interest. I don't actually understand how he's going to scumhunt if he actively states that "mafia is amongst the semi-actives". Well sherlock, if you tell us that you're going for semi-active people, won't the mafia just stop being semi-active? And note that he himself is definitely not amongst the semi-actives, so he cannot be mafia, by his theory. This case against JeeJee is basically just a throw-away case, BB knows well enough that JeeJee is not going to get lynched based on this case, and he's happy to look like he's not supporting a town lynch while throwing an off-vote on some random "semi-active". Interesting that he calls out for other people to back up their accusations, yet your entire case against JeeJee is: Re-read his posts. Look at them from the point of view he is scum, understand what motivations he might have for posting like this if he's town. I think we have a great lynch candidate here town. BrownBear is scum ##Vote BrownBear This is Palmar's accusation of BrownBear day 1. I will say right now that Palmar's accusation is a bit iffy as I feel like he's stretching points to make ends meet. But as a whole, he brings up some good points about BrownBear deflecting discussion away from himself and DropBear. When I first read this post I was a bit intrigued. My initial response was "lol okay Palmar...whatever you say" but upon closer reading there are valid points that need to be addressed. And how does our BrownBear respond? Take a look: On August 21 2011 01:23 BrownBear wrote: Lol Palmar? Keep trying to twist my words bro, it's getting you nowhere. You have no credibility with town right now, and you really only have yourself to blame. Just give it up. Your crusade against bears has failed. Switching my vote to Sevryn because that deadline's looming, and he's got the most votes right now. Of course, why should he respond when he knows that things he say might incriminate him more? I will give him some benefit of the doubt in that it is Palmar, but long accusation posts in which there was a clear attempt of effort put in need to be taken seriously. I'm interested in why BrownBear even chose to respond in the first place. VisceraEyes has called me mafia twice after I claimed the hit and roleblock, and I ignored him. Why? Frankly because it's VisceraEyes and I don't think he's serious. I figured that if I responded it would only clutter up the thread and lead to an argument. But BrownBear chooses to respond to Palmar with clutter, basically telling him "go home bro". Another dodge which I overlooked for a long while is this conversation I had with him: On August 22 2011 12:33 Foolishness wrote: Not really. Look at the player list. Who do you think would roleblock and hit me in the same night? On August 22 2011 12:35 BrownBear wrote: Not me. If I were playing mafia, I'd roleblock and doublestack you to ensure you died night 1. You're far too dangerous to a red team left alive. Dodge much? Why wouldn't you answer that question and instead choose to immediately defend himself? All he had to do was say "chaoser" or "jackal" or "maybe chaos13 or DropBear or Curu". Or he could have easily taken what Curu said: "Foolishness, I don't think it means anything; plenty of people know about your history, and it's easy to find out from the mafia quiz. Frankly I could see almost anyone roleblocking and hitting you at once, especially if they couldn't agree on a better target". That's a very pro-town response (what Curu wrote) because it's honest and considering alternate possibilities to a situation. But yet, BrownBear chooses to claim innocence. It's almost like if you caught a 5 year old stealing cookies and then asked him "who do you think stole the cookies?" and he immediately responds "I didn't do it!". ATTENTION: IF YOU ARE VISCERAEYES PLEASE STOP READING HERE AND CONTINUE TO THE SUMMARY AT THE BOTTOM. THE NEXT SECTION IS ALL ABOUT BEHAVIOR ANALYSIS AND "META", OF WHICH YOU CLAIM MEANS NOTHING IN TERMS OF FINDING MAFIA This quote will lead into my last point: On August 22 2011 12:24 BrownBear wrote: Your accusation of me rings rather hollow - meta builds a pretty shit argument, I'm sorry to say. Also, it was mafia XXX in which you survived that night 1 hit and proceeded to destroy us  Btw, since Palmar is tunneled in on me worse than a minecrafter going after diamond, you do realize he's going to pick up that little nugget you dropped and run with it, so I hope you're damn sure of my scummitude, otherwise this is going to just clog up the day post with useless one-liners from him. It's nice to be reasonably sure in one townie, though Got any other ideas about potential lynch targets?First I want to address his "meta builds a pretty shit argument", because I honestly think he knows better than that. He's been around for a while now and plays a pretty mean game of mafia. Secondly, he's reasonably sure that I'm townie though. Nothing to say about that. He asks me about potential lynch targets. Of course I have potential lynch targets, everyone does. We all know that it's at this post chaoser and I voted for Mig. I was pleased for him to say this because I thought he was on my side. I believed he would listen to what I say and auto vote with me with simple logic: "well Foolishness is 99% confirmed. Foolishness is known for hunting mafia, particularly lurkers. If he says person X is mafia, person X is probably mafia". Boy was I in for a surprise. 3) Failure to comment about Mig. For those that haven't figured it out yet, I deliberately laid a trap for the mafia day 2. I was very certain that Mig was mafia after chaoser's initial accusation so I decided to vote for Mig and go afk. I knew chaoser was going to be afk soon based on his posting schedule as well. What's the trap? Assume for a minute that Mig is mafia (just go with it for a second here, I'll comment about this assumption later on). Mafia won't let one of their own die day 2, so at some point we can either expect someone to come in and help defend Mig OR for the topic to derail and shift the focus on a townie. And the latter is what happened. At the beginning of the day everyone was discussing Mig and quite a few people were on board with chaoser and I. This is reflected in the fact that 3 others voted for Mig in this time. What happened then? Hours upon hours later, Mig was just a secondary topic to the newfound suspect: xtfftc. Attention shifted to xtfftc and it was immediately clear to me that Mig was probably not going to get lynched because everyone just kinda forgot about him. Now it's what happened in between that's very important. Mig correctly pointed out in his defense, "If I'm mafia, why has nobody come in to defend me? Am I so bad that the mafia team has left me to die?" A valid point, but he brings this up multiple times (which I believe is an indication he's mafia, but this is about BrownBear). Now I didn't comment on this at the time, but the mafia did not need to defend Mig because they distracted the town with a different target: xtfftc. I advise you all to reread day 2 if you have the time. When you do, you will notice that there are a handful of people who refuse to comment about Mig. This is important. Why, as a townie, would you ignore one of the most prominent lynch suspects for the day? Multiple people wanted to kill Mig, why would you disregard that and shift focus elsewhere? This is precisely what mafia did, and this is why I was sure xtfftc was town. Since nobody was defending Mig, I knew attention would shift to another candidate and the mafia would run with that. Here is the list of people that never voiced their opinion about Mig: BrownBear, RayzorFlash, Hiro Protagonist, Vain. A few people half ignored the Mig but not to the same extent as the above four. I jotted down their names as well: Barundar, Erandorr, Greymist (who is now Insert_Freq). This is why I was okay with the Hiro lynch yesterday, because he was on the top of the list. And no, before you say, I'm not claiming that these lists are perfect and that I've found the entire mafia team. But I bet that there's at least 3 mafia in these 7 people, and my guess is it's BrownBear, Rayzor, and Barundar. With Mig as mafia that's 4 mafia I found. This is why I was adamant about killing Mig. If he flips red I guarantee there are mafia in those lists I just wrote. This is also why I kept telling people to look at the big picture and put the pieces together. Everything fits together perfectly. Mig is mafia, he uses the "why is nobody defending me" in his defense because he knows the mafia is deliberately shifting town focus onto someone else (xtfftc). The people who are doing that are most likely those who aren't voicing their opinion about Mig. Mig acts like he's helpless and nobody is on his side (anyone else ever notice how concise his defense posts are?) Remember that this is mafia, the pieces of the puzzle do not fit together in an arbitrary manner. I know some of you will probably say that I'm just throwing together random happenings and this is all just coincidence, but I encourage you to go reread any mafia game upon seeing the mafia list. It will be immediately clear why those people were mafia and how they were all linked together in the process. That's why I am able to say the things I've been saying with such certainty. I found the big picture and the majority of the pieces that go with it. For those that aren't convinced Mig is mafia, at the very least this shows that BrownBear is not willing to comment on big town issues. Why is he blatantly ignoring all posts against the person with the highest or second highest vote count? Why does he refuse to comment about him? Simple, BrownBear does not care about the town, nor does he care about who's getting lynched. The only other explanation is that he is so convinced that xtfftc is mafia that he cannot focus about anyone else. Based on his posting history we can all agree that's not going to be true. If you don't believe me, go filter BrownBear's posts and ctfl + f 'Mig'. He only mentions his name in passing "looks like Mig or xtfftc is getting lynched today". No discussion about whether Mig might be mafia or not. Note: this next part is important. Take a look at BrownBear's post when I posted the 'trap card' meme: On August 25 2011 05:58 BrownBear wrote: How is deciding I think xtfftc is scum, posting analysis on him, then reading everyone else's analysis, deciding mine's still better, and sticking to it tunnelvision? Are you saying the arguments against hiro were correct? Sure, some of them had merit, but in the end I thought the case against him was extremely weak, and my case was better. Mig's got a stronger case, I wouldn't mind him as a lynch target tomorrow, but I'm still gonna be pushing xtfftc until a better candidate comes along. That's not tunnelvision. Tunnelvision is when you're argument against someone boils down to: 1. He's scum because he called me out on my scummy behavior (classic OMGUS btw) 2. He's scum because I think he is. And then posting one-liners all game along the lines of "Let's lynch Player X" while offering NOTHING ELSE constructive. What you call "not being interested in pushing your case" is actually me just being drowned out by a metric buttload of spam. Also, I really don't see how Palmar is trying to get me lynched - or even really trying in this game anymore. He basically ragequit with this little gem: (ps don't ragequit yet Palmar, I know you can actually play this game, and if you drop the tunnel and cut the spam, you can really help town win. We still have a very real chance at turning this around, but we need active players like you to help!) That is the first (yes, the first) time BrownBear has voiced an opinion about Mig. And what is the first thing he said? "Mig's got a [strong] case against him". Wow, how convenient for you to say that considering YOUVE NEVER EVEN SAID ANYTHING ABOUT MIG IN THE PAST 72 HOURS! And now all of a sudden you think the case against him is good? Where were you when chaoser was accusing him, or when Mig and I were going back and forth? You were definitely here because you were posting in the thread. Nevermind I can answer that for you: you don't care about the town (and that's regardless if Mig is mafia or not). I imagine that BrownBear must have an expression on his face similar to this: I have now provided all the necessary information needed. As a town, you now have the tools to hunt the BrownBear and prevent him from escaping. Together, united, you can capture the BrownBear and once again bring peace to our town! SUMMARY Jimminy Christmas that was long. Let's recap on everything I have said since I know there's bound to be a few people who are too lazy to read through all of this: 1) BrownBear is mafia 2) BrownBear's vote posts are just restating already said arguments. He's never voiced his own opinion. Furthermore he never pushes who he's voting for. He makes his vote post, then spams one liners. 3) BrownBear has been extremely dodging and defense. He flat out refuses to respond to Palmar even with Palmar writes something good. He is very insistent that he is innocent. 4) BrownBear has refused to say anything with regards to Mig (until just now). If he was town he would be sure to voice his opinion on one of the top lynch candidates. He does not care about the town and this is evident because he has ignored the case against Mig. 5) If Mig is mafia, then BrownBear (and a few others) implicitly defended him by purposely switching town focus onto xtfftc (and then Hiro). They did this by not sharing their opinions about Mig and instead wrote paragraphs about why xtfftc (or Hiro) should have been lynched. I will still advocate that Mig should be the next lynch. But if you are too put off by his defense then BrownBear must die. On a random note I believe Pyo to be mafia as well. Someone should take a look at him in the near future. I read this in its entirety. I will gladly lynch either one of Mig or BB. Whoever town thinks is most scummy. I think of the two it's BB. I can't wrap my head around Mig yet...going back to reread the cases against him again. As I recall they were heavily based on meta. But unfortunately I admittedly hardly ever return to previous games to check the validity of meta statements unless I was in the game personally. Call it an investment of time I'm not willing to make in most cases. I'm going to do so and return further informed. | ||
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