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On August 26 2011 04:06 VisceraEyes wrote:
Mig - in my opinion, you're using the 'lynchpin' of who can prove that scum 'tried' to divert the lynch off you when that doesn't really matter. What you're not taking into account is that if town is doing it for them, they don't have to. They can want something to happen, subtly do things, without specifically and obviously 'trying' to do something. ESPECIALLY since MOST of the people on xtc lynch (imo) are town.
This vote divert thing says nothing: There were several people that didn't vote anyone until the fakecheck on me / hirowagon appeared.
- chaos13 was the first one who jumped on me right after DB claimed that I was red. And he didn't vote anyone before.
- RayzorFlash had his vote at hiro right from the beginning.
- Vain jumped on hiro without voting anyone before.
- Nard suddenly showed up at the very end and put his vote on hiro.
- Also Mig and xtfftc didn't vote each other.
_______________
Conclusion
I am convinced both are scum. That would explain the townies on xtfftc.
further reasoning:
Noone of them joined the RayzorFlash-lynch-attempt at day1.
Mig and vain even argued against it.
So can we please lynch one of these guys: xtfftc, mig, chaos13, nard, rayzorflash, vain
I'd like to lynch Rayzorflash, because his redflip would give us a lot of informations about the people that voted him day1 and the people who didn't.
Also RayzorFlashs red-flip would put even more suspicion on Mig. And if he really is town, he could try to prove it until day4.
because of that:
##vote: Rayzorflash
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one word to the channeling Kurumiwagon: I know he made a mistake with shoting Palmar and pushing the hirolynch (and accusing me was a mistake, too btw)
But we have to stay focussed. The guys mentioned above are, judged by their votepattern and overall behavior, much scummier than him.
We cannot afford another mislynch. Please listen to me. If I made a mistake in my logic, please show it to me. Right now, I am pretty damn sure about what I said in my last post.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
I'm still trying to think of the possibility that one of Mig or Brownbear (or both) is town, and I'm not really sure which one of the two is a better lynch at this point.
In the meantime, I would like to hear peoples' opinions about the following 3 people:
1) nard
2) Lucidity
3) Trotske (now iGrok. I'm mainly focused on Trotske's posting since iGrok just joined in).
And yes Mig and BrownBear, I want your thoughts about these three as well.
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On August 26 2011 04:33 supersoft wrote:
one word to the channeling Kurumiwagon
Who is on the Kurumi-wagon?
I'm still for lynching Mig. Please note that I didn't switch my vote.
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On August 26 2011 05:09 iGrok wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2011 04:33 supersoft wrote:
one word to the channeling Kurumiwagon Who is on the Kurumi-wagon? I'm still for lynching Mig. Please note that I didn't switch my vote.
sorry, i obviously misunderstood you.
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Two days has passed and both times mig has eeked out of a lynch. Most telling is that of the second day, for most of the day cycle he edged out in front at 10ish, but by the end of the day only me, dropbear, palmer, and pyo were still on him, and now two of them are dead and both flipped town. The fact that throughout the day this change from 10ish to 4 was done via various means (trying to change people's vote onto hiro, trying to split people's votes between hiro and xtfftc, random voting in the end for people like nard and supersoft) only adds more to the [r]red[/r] nature that is in mig.
Did you see my case against DB? Every person who has voted me foolish/chaoser/you has completely ignored everything I did day2. Tell me how I wasn't helpful yesterday? I actively scum hunted and I provided GOOD analysis.
Your case against Dropbear was hardly "good analysis", I think foolishness covers it pretty well in a post of his against it. It seemed very much like a mafia trying very hard to find a tiny scrap of information from which to say "Look! I'm useful!".
Your asking for a switch from hiro to chaos13 was 1) way too late to actually do anything, and you knew it 2) it didn't matter to you who was lynched as long as it wasn't YOUSELF. You didn't risk your life, you knew you were safe at that point.
You're mafia and I will not let you live for yet another day. Thankfully I finished my two tests today so I will fight tooth and nail to get you lynched.
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On August 26 2011 04:30 supersoft wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2011 04:06 VisceraEyes wrote:
Mig - in my opinion, you're using the 'lynchpin' of who can prove that scum 'tried' to divert the lynch off you when that doesn't really matter. What you're not taking into account is that if town is doing it for them, they don't have to. They can want something to happen, subtly do things, without specifically and obviously 'trying' to do something. ESPECIALLY since MOST of the people on xtc lynch (imo) are town.
This vote divert thing says nothing: There were several people that didn't vote anyone until the fakecheck on me / hirowagon appeared. - chaos13 was the first one who jumped on me right after DB claimed that I was red. And he didn't vote anyone before. - RayzorFlash had his vote at hiro right from the beginning. - Vain jumped on hiro without voting anyone before. - Nard suddenly showed up at the very end and put his vote on hiro. - Also Mig and xtfftc didn't vote each other. _______________ ConclusionI am convinced both are scum. That would explain the townies on xtfftc. further reasoning: Noone of them joined the RayzorFlash-lynch-attempt at day1. Mig and vain even argued against it. So can we please lynch one of these guys: xtfftc, mig, chaos13, nard, rayzorflash, vain I'd like to lynch Rayzorflash, because his redflip would give us a lot of informations about the people that voted him day1 and the people who didn't. Also RayzorFlashs red-flip would put even more suspicion on Mig. And if he really is town, he could try to prove it until day4. because of that: ##vote: Rayzorflash
I want to add, that noone except chaos13 and mig (who accused each other) have voted today or posted. That fact strengthens my suspicion especially on mig.
Migs vote on chaos13 may very well be an attempt to sacrifice a less active player in favour of his life and credibility.
Since noone is up for a Rayzorflashlynch, I vote for mig. Who knows if we find a majority for him tomorrow.
##unvote
##vote: mig
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Glad to see that you agree chaoser. Mig is lynched today, and will flip red. Unless anyone else objects, we can now talk about what that means?
Does Mig flipping red confirm Rayzor as red? I don't think so (though I do think that Rayzor is red).
Does Mig flipping confirm BrownBear as red?
Does Mig flipping confirm supersoft as a red?
@supersoft: ...a lot of people have posted besides those two.
P.S. If anyone else caught why Kuru is scum, say so. I'm not revealing it yet so I can use it later.
Rayzor, BrownBear, supersoft - if you've got a defense I'd like to hear it. Particularly BrownBear, you've said little regarding Foolishness' accusations.
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I'm trying to catch up on this again because i was in a flight (toronto to london)... This game is really being pretty shitty, and I cant help but think that its partly my fault due to my absolutely horrible sense of who is town and who isnt (all the of my picks so far have turned out to be town, lady luck is a bitch, lol...) and me being new at this (contrary to popular belief, not getting coached either) i've turned out to seem so scummy despite being town -_-
So far, I like Mig as a lynch since he only started contributing after he was already a suspect, seemingly content to lurk if allowed to... I also think Palmar being town means we should consider his analysis a bit deeper, and would not mind a BrownBear lynch either
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On August 26 2011 06:27 RayzorFlash wrote:
I'm trying to catch up on this again because i was in a flight (toronto to london)... This game is really being pretty shitty, and I cant help but think that its partly my fault due to my absolutely horrible sense of who is town and who isnt (all the of my picks so far have turned out to be town, lady luck is a bitch, lol...) and me being new at this (contrary to popular belief, not getting coached either) i've turned out to seem so scummy despite being town -_-
So far, I like Mig as a lynch since he only started contributing after he was already a suspect, seemingly content to lurk if allowed to... I also think Palmar being town means we should consider his analysis a bit deeper, and would not mind a BrownBear lynch either
Put your money where your mouth is. Vote.
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On August 26 2011 06:20 iGrok wrote:
Glad to see that you agree chaoser. Mig is lynched today, and will flip red. Unless anyone else objects, we can now talk about what that means?
Does Mig flipping red confirm Rayzor as red? I don't think so (though I do think that Rayzor is red).
Does Mig flipping confirm BrownBear as red?
Does Mig flipping confirm supersoft as a red?
@supersoft: ...a lot of people have posted besides those two.
P.S. If anyone else caught why Kuru is scum, say so. I'm not revealing it yet so I can use it later.
Rayzor, BrownBear, supersoft - if you've got a defense I'd like to hear it. Particularly BrownBear, you've said little regarding Foolishness' accusations.
xtfftc, mig, chaos13, nard, rayzorflash, vain
ah yes xtfftc made one huge post about kurumi. Nard rayzor and vain didn't vote and didn't post.
Rayzor has one post now. Contains nothing but an excuse why he was afk.
and i why exactly should I defend myself? And against what? I posted a huge post 2 pages earlier in which I explained everything I did this game. Next time read my fucking posts before you post any nonsense about me.
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Foolishness
United States3044 Posts
It's still early, while BrownBear hasn't responded yet I'm not worried about him dodging this one =P
I'd still like to hear what people think of the inactive list I posted earlier. Eventually we will have to start hunting in there so it's best to generate some discussion about it now while we're waiting for people to come back and/or respond to the accusations.
1) nard
2) lucidity
3) Trotske
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On August 26 2011 06:33 Foolishness wrote:
It's still early, while BrownBear hasn't responded yet I'm not worried about him dodging this one =P
I'd still like to hear what people think of the inactive list I posted earlier. Eventually we will have to start hunting in there so it's best to generate some discussion about it now while we're waiting for people to come back and/or respond to the accusations.
1) nard
2) lucidity
3) Trotske
Please call me Trotske/iGrok ^^
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Summary of Supersoft's thoughts
Don't vote me, accuse me, talk to me or anything if you didn't read these posts!
My explanationpost with correct quotelines:
+ Show Spoiler +On August 25 2011 11:08 Kurumi wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 11:05 iGrok wrote:
##Vote Mig
Lets start this day off right.
Kurumi, you couldn't have shot someone a little more scummy? Palmar-Mig-hiro protagonist-supersoft circle was worrying me. Palmar was clearly cluttering the thread when the day was about to end also he aimed to a no-lynch. I feared that supersoft could've been scum doc'd if there is one present. Lack of RB is just wifom. Someone wants to claim rb? _________ Btw, supersoft earns my vote. He said nothing from his own perspective and always parrotted/sheeped Palmar. I will talk about it a little bit more when it is not 4am. Okay you obviously didn't read the thread. I sheeped Palmar one single time at the start of the game to initiate any action because nothing was going on. It was completely random, that I picked Palmars accuses on DB. As I said before I just wanted to initiate any discussion. On August 19 2011 18:39 supersoft wrote:Show nested quote +On August 19 2011 18:34 Varpulis wrote:
hey guys, your pressure won't work if you say that it's pressure.
just sayin. When you vote, vote for scum. Vote with the intention of lynching whoever you're voting for. Don't just mindlessly vote for people for "pressure," and if you are, for the love of god don't tell the person that you're voting for that it's pressure. okay well, it's not exactly pressure what i wanted to achieve, i think it's more like get this game going.but you're right. Maybe it's not good to explain everything you do. ________________ After that I started to accuse xtfftc. On August 20 2011 07:53 supersoft wrote:Show nested quote +On August 20 2011 05:09 xtfftc wrote:
##Vote: Palmar
He obviously had something in mind and there's no way he wasn't aware of how his accusations would be perceived by the rest of us.
However, his strategy hasn't benefited town by now. He has until the deadline to convince me to vote DropBear or BrownBear. If nothing meaningful comes out of the discussion initiated by him, I'd rather have one less player who throws arbitrary accusations around.
I'd also like to point out that it shouldn't be that difficult to convince me to switch to DropBear, considering DropBear's behaviour. ah, okay I understand, you vote for palmar, not because you think he's scum, but because he didn't convince you to vote for DB. This is scumlogic. Town doesn't vote people for playing bad. Town votes for scum. Compared to DP, who proposed some really useless plans like this unnecessary mayorthing, your stuff seems more scummy to me. ##unvote
##vote: xtfftc after that I defended severyn right when the accuses against him began. At the same time I encouraged people to vote, because I think it's good to see early where the majority of the votes will probably go. It's just better for the discussion in my eyes. Otherwise there are hectic voteswitches at the end of the day and the whole thing is just a lot more random, but noone would listen. Especially the dear members of our scumteam xtfftc and nard. Consequently, because my both mainsuspects at this point of time didn't vote for severyn, I voted him because I doubted his innocence at this moment. + Show Spoiler +On August 21 2011 03:33 supersoft wrote:
perfect, xtfftc and nard both refuse to vote for sevryn and say they want to wait until he defends himself. There is no reason not to vote him until he defends himself. Not only does this behavior back up my doubts on your innocence. But it also changes my mind about sevryn.
Since noone is going to follow my vote on xtfftc who is my primetarget I am going to switch on sevryn. When I realized, that he wouldn't defend himself, I told him to get up and do something, what was very important, because if he were scum, we would get more informations out of him: + Show Spoiler +On August 21 2011 08:22 supersoft wrote:
sevryn, if you are innocent, defend yourself. it's not too late. If you are town, you should try to.
Only scum doesn't self-defend, because they could give away important information to the town.
Prove your innocence by contributing a lot!
If not, we may end this day now. You got about 15 votes - counted without the people that claimed to switch their votes to achieve a majoritysituation. On August 21 2011 08:27 supersoft wrote:Show nested quote +On August 21 2011 05:26 Sevryn wrote:
/in this looks awesome and I am about to die in XLIV good god, you're such a douche. Why exactly do you even play this game? "awww there are 15 votes on me and the day ends in 5 hours - okay i give up" He defended himself and jackal proposed another target: Rayzorflash The case against RayzorFlash was much better and I tryed to swing the votes from sev to him. people who agreed me there were: Sevryn (dead town) Jackal58 (dead town) supersoft Foolishness Trotske (now iGrok) Navillus hiro protagonist (dead town) wherebugsgo varpulis curu hiro (dead town) I believe amongst those people, there is probably no scum - and rayzorflash is probably scum. I believe the scumteam stayed afk there. ANYWAY: Day2 started and people started accusing mig. I wasn't sure about him (and still aren't) so i tried to get a discussion about the rayzorflash incident going. In the progress xtfftc crossed my way again: On August 23 2011 03:52 supersoft wrote:funny how xtfftc, vain and rayzorflash defend each other ;-) Show nested quote +On August 23 2011 02:58 Vain wrote:On August 23 2011 02:44 supersoft wrote:
why don't we lynch RayzorFlash? He's probably gotten coached and his death would give us a lot of information to work with... Can you write out what information we get then? In my opinion that only creates more wifom Show nested quote +On August 23 2011 03:30 xtfftc wrote:
He (Vain) is saying that if we agree on one single target for a vigilante, mafia would know who to protect. @vain: you want an answer to your question? filter me. after that the stupid DB thing happened and I had to explain why the DT-checks are worthless. I gave away my role in that thing... I still am VT. when the DB thing was over with him claiming medic etc. I went back on xtfftc because he refused to answer my questions about other players I was suspicious of like nard. Suddenly people went on hiro. I didn't understand this badwagon and I still don't. I told you so and refused to vote him: On August 24 2011 05:30 supersoft wrote:
i believe hero is innocent and mafia is superhappy because they save xtfftc today...
at least i am schocked how fast that hiro bandwagon started out of the nowhere... i admit, I could have explained my reasons a little bit better, but basically thats it. ah no I also remebered that hiro helped with the severyn/rayzorflash thing and I didn't want to lynch anyone from that rayzorflahsvoting-list. turned out I was correct. now people hate me for pushing lynches on scum and defending townies. *clap*
Another attempt to explain why mig isn't my first target:
+ Show Spoiler +On August 26 2011 04:06 VisceraEyes wrote:
Mig - in my opinion, you're using the 'lynchpin' of who can prove that scum 'tried' to divert the lynch off you when that doesn't really matter. What you're not taking into account is that if town is doing it for them, they don't have to. They can want something to happen, subtly do things, without specifically and obviously 'trying' to do something. ESPECIALLY since MOST of the people on xtc lynch (imo) are town.
This vote divert thing says nothing: There were several people that didn't vote anyone until the fakecheck on me / hirowagon appeared. - chaos13 was the first one who jumped on me right after DB claimed that I was red. And he didn't vote anyone before. - RayzorFlash had his vote at hiro right from the beginning. - Vain jumped on hiro without voting anyone before. - Nard suddenly showed up at the very end and put his vote on hiro. - Also Mig and xtfftc didn't vote each other. _______________ ConclusionI am convinced both are scum. That would explain the townies on xtfftc. further reasoning: Noone of them joined the RayzorFlash-lynch-attempt at day1. Mig and vain even argued against it. So can we please lynch one of these guys: xtfftc, mig, chaos13, nard, rayzorflash, vain I'd like to lynch Rayzorflash, because his redflip would give us a lot of informations about the people that voted him day1 and the people who didn't. Also RayzorFlashs red-flip would put even more suspicion on Mig. And if he really is town, he could try to prove it until day4. because of that: ##vote: Rayzorflash
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This post will be very long but I put forth the effort to read the entire thread to reconsider everything, so for the sake of Town put forth the effort to at least read through it. I’ve included as little fluff as possible.
BrownBear’s day 1 play was undeniably scummy – he does try to influence the lynch, but he’s careful to be skirting the edges around it and ensuring that none of the blame falls onto him. As noted before, he put a vote on JeeJee that was essentially a throwaway vote, one that he never backed up nor tried to actually get people to discuss. He does switch to Sevyrn but note the timing and attitude of his vote: it came when the wagon had firmly started with the initial few votes. It came at a time when the wagon began to look like it would be diverted and wasn’t picking up any more votes. It came at a time when wherebugsgo attempted to call attention onto Vain. It came at a time when Palmar attempted to call attention onto BrownBear himself. His post offered nothing new, simply rehashing all the arguments already existing around Sevyrn to make sure people didn’t forget to keep voting him.
All along the game a common theme has been present with BrownBear’s posting: telling people to quit tunneling, and telling people to quit posting useless stuff (he does both himself). He kicks off day 2 saying this:
On August 23 2011 06:36 BrownBear wrote:
Anyway, I'm looking through xfftc, Mig, Vain, and Hiro's posts. A lot of you guys have already done this, but those of you who haven't should do so!
This is a scum objective post. He has noticed people who he thinks have posted in a scummy fashion and felt the need to point them out to us, but made no effort to make the analysis himself (note that all these people had already been called out by someone else earlier). Why? He didn’t want to be seen at the head of a mislynch of the Townies on that list, and he didn’t want to actively push for a lynch of the scum on that list. Following up this post he made a big long wall of text about why xtfftc was scum, conveniently after a whole load of other people had already started the case. No mention of Mig, Vain, or Hiro, only xtfftc.
I believe at this point it is a fair assumption to assume BrownBear is scum, based on his posts and what Foolishness has already pointed out. Now for the real and relevant meat of this post (note that all analysis is under the assumption of a scum BrownBear):
At the point of his vote, the two top vote getters were 6 on Mig and 4 on xtfftc (including his); this was a clear attempt to avoid being seen on Mig’s votecount. Two explanations for this:
1) Mig is scum and this is a diversion wagon from Mig
2) xtfftc is scum and BrownBear wanted a quick infusion of Town cred; xtfftc was at that point unlikely to get lynched and he could later point out that “look I was trying to lynch xtfftc.” He never actually tried to push xtfftc or debate with anyone to change their votes there.
Why do I believe that xtfftc was a very unlikely lynch at that point? Take a look at how the voters fell:
Mig(6)
Foolishness
chaoser
Jackal58
DropBear
Varpulis
Curu
xtfftc(4)
supersoft
hiro protagonist
VisceraEyes (unvoted)
wherebugsgo
BrownBear
The numbers are deceptively close but take a look at who is actually voting for whom. Foolishness, chaoser, Jackal, and me are all on Mig; of these four, Foolishness is widely respected and had huge Town cred and weight, chaoser had been tunnelfucking Mig all game already with no signs of letting up, Jackal is a respected player, I was pretty loud and about in making sure my opinion was heard in the thread. Not to mention Palmar was a lynch Mig advocate, to add on another person who was loud and about and who most people thought of as Town.
No offense to supersoft, hiro protagonist, wherebugsgo, or VisceraEyes (sorry but lol at the last one), but IMO their weight and influence with the Town was much lesser than that of the above voter list.
Option 1 is of course still the more obvious and likely scenario, but if Mig were to flip Town I would take a hard look at xtfftc again.
What piqued this train of thought from me? xtfftc’s posts and his general attitude, as well as really being given a “free pass” by many simply for being the wagon building at the same time as Mig.
It’s been pointed out, but xtfftc’s first posts were basically offering up early excuses for why people would not be active or interested in stating their opinions. What Town purpose does this serve? None whatsoever, this strikes me as subtle pushing of Mafia objectives. Note the tone that he posts these posts in – very jokingly, roleplaying, hiding under a cover of non-seriousness. After everyone disagreeing with him and him being called out for it, he came back with this post:
On August 19 2011 08:46 xtfftc wrote:
I don't have anything to add really - as long as we're all active, all is good. I'd just bear in mind that people don't want to die, even in a game.
Backtracking immediately, saying that his posts didn’t actually have any point, but still subtly pushing that lurking behavior is somehow okay. When asked about his opinion on lurkers, he posts this:
On August 19 2011 18:06 xtfftc wrote:
I already explained my position on lurkers and their effect on the game. Asking me to repeat myself is generating spam - and we all know who benefits from spam.
Yeah he already explained his position; his position was that lurking is okay because some Townies might be too afraid to post. This is a very anti-Town stance and he clearly doesn’t want to push an environment that discourages lurkers, but he doesn’t want to be seen again promoting his former stance. So he merely says he’s already made his opinion clear as a cop-out; he doesn’t have to contradict himself or continue to draw heat for promoting a pro-lurker game.
He makes a post saying he will vote Palmar (he does not actually do this btw). Look at this post:
On August 20 2011 05:09 xtfftc wrote:
##Vote: Palmar
…
I'd also like to point out that it shouldn't be that difficult to convince me to switch to DropBear, considering DropBear's behaviour.
Why is he waiting for someone to convince him to switch to DropBear? So he can be absolved of blame in a DropBear mislynch?
After he is called out by supersoft for his vote on Palmar, a huge contradiction comes up:
http://www.teamliquid.net/forum/viewmessage.php?topic_id=254174¤tpage=22#433
I really don’t understand what is going on in here at all. He thinks DropBear is scummy, he thinks Palmar had a strategy, he doesn’t really think Palmar is Mafia, but he’s going to vote for Palmar just because, he liked the way he attacked DropBear, he acknowledges Palmar wasn’t simply trolling or being a nuisance and that he was analyzing reactions and defenses.
Then in the VERY SAME POST, he tells Foolishness to consider that Palmar is scum. When called out by Foolishness, he is very adamant in pointing out he did not accuse Foolishness of being Mafia and drops the topic completely rather than trying to argue his point (which was a giant contradiction anyways).
When I asked him to tell me right then and there what he felt about Sevyrn, he said Mafia. The thing is, if he was already so sure in his mind that Sevyrn was Mafia, why was his vote not there? He had been doing his Palmar thing, no new information had come up between the time he voted Palmar and the time he told me he thought Sevyrn was Mafia, besides that his Palmar bit got shot down by Foolishness.
Posts this:
On August 22 2011 22:28 xtfftc wrote:
Nah, I'm just bored of Supersoft. If anyone else has questions for me, I'd gladly answer them.
Will gladly answer questions but won’t offer them unprompted by himself.
He was very ready and willing to put his vote into Mig when he has never played with Mig before. A large part of the argument against Mig was that he was playing far, far below his usual Town standards; xtfftc does not know this, but he parks the vote there anyways. Note that he said he was suspicious of Rayzor before this but as no real argument had been brought up against him yet (and rather than bringing it up himself) he instead goes with the masses and puts a vote on Mig. A vote I’m convinced he doesn’t actually believe in.
This post:
On August 22 2011 23:30 xtfftc wrote:
I was the first to point the finger at Rayzor, feel free to filter my posts and re-read my arguments against him.
Quick to claim credit in case Rayzor flipped Mafia. He was not the first to point the finger at Rayzor, he asked him a question, said he was suspicious, then went and voted Mig.
On August 24 2011 08:38 xtfftc wrote:We have 8 votes for Mig and 6 for Hiro. They are followed by DropBear and myself with 2 each. I am leaning towards Hiro at the moment. I can see how his voting pattern might actually make sense for a mafia player. He has taken a stance against pretty much everyone accused, so in a way he has pleased everyone without focusing on a specific target. Also, this: Show nested quote +On August 24 2011 07:52 hiro protagonist wrote:
If I am the leading vote with 10 minutes left. I will switch to myself so there might be a lynch. How can a 100% confirmed townie's death be better than a no-lynch? It's not like Hiro's death is going to give us some concrete information. So, ##Vote: hiro protagonistI will check the thread before I go to bed in ~45 minutes and I'll switch to Mig if we are facing the prospect of a no-lynch.
What is going on here? I can’t believe I missed this at the time. He thinks Hiro is Mafia, but then look at his reply to Hiro. He calls Hiro a 100% confirmed Townie (I think under the assumption that Hiro’s self vote would show he is a Townie, but then why not try to convince people not to lynch Hiro?), says his death is not going to give any information, but decides to vote him anyways with the addendum that he’s willing to switch to Mig.
Which brings us to today, where suddenly xtfftc has lost the resolve to vote for Mig. He is now pursuing Kurumi, despite being confident in voting Mig all of last day. What’s changed? Well for one people have started to link his wagon to Mig’s; he must surely realize that if Mig were to flip Town, he would look terrible. So now he’s campaigning against Kurumi instead of Mig, despite Mig being the “flavor of the day” (note that in past days he had NO PROBLEM voting with the masses, but today no no, don’t touch Mig). Not even a single mention of lynching Mig, instead actually chainsawing Mig’s attackers.
I think I’ve exhausted the length of this post, there are many other things I’ve noticed over the course of my re-read but I believe this content is most relevant to the central topic today.
Of the two, I definitely find xtfftc more scummy than Mig. However, under the assumption of a scum BrownBear, the situation for Mig looks a lot worse but there is also a possible alternate explanation. Note how BrownBear never addresses the points in Foolishness’s post about why he didn’t try to touch Mig, instead disappearing while allowing the Mig wagon to blow up. There is no attempted distancing from BrownBear.
I am completely fine with lynching BrownBear or Mig today, but if Mig were to flip as Town I would say xtfftc is definitely scum.
I won’t post an analysis of Mig here as Foolishness has already done a better job than I could.
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On August 26 2011 06:33 Foolishness wrote:
It's still early, while BrownBear hasn't responded yet I'm not worried about him dodging this one =P
I'd still like to hear what people think of the inactive list I posted earlier. Eventually we will have to start hunting in there so it's best to generate some discussion about it now while we're waiting for people to come back and/or respond to the accusations.
1) nard
2) lucidity
3) Trotske
okay I overlooked lucidity, he did basically the same as my other targets. He may very well replace on of them on my scumlist.
- he voted for severyn day1 and wasn't there for the lynchattempt of rayzorflash
- he didn't vote xtfftc or mig but jumped on the hirowagon
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Trotske/iGrok was there to lynch RayzorFlash, so I think he's rather town than scum since my scumlist already contains 7 people with equal scumminess
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I have another point we should take into consideration:
assumption:
If mig really was town, mafia wants to kill him, since he's an experienced player and his death would cause a lot of trouble.
people that voted mig:
Foolishness - confirmed by DBs death
chaoser - I have a townread
Jackal58 - green
DropBear - blue
Varpulis - at least he tried to get RayzorFlash down
Curu - i have a strong town read on him + Show Spoiler +(awesome post above! I 100% agree with you there, you developed my theory of xtfftc and mig being both scum very well!)
probably no scummember voted him
conclusion:
scum didn't want to kill mig, he can't be town.
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You're right, it's very possible that both are Mafia as well. This can be supported by the quick exodus of almost everyone from both the Mig and xtfftc wagons when the Hiro one started. BrownBear did not actually start the xtfftc wagon, he parked his vote when both Mig and xtfftc wagons were in full swing. Then everyone from both wagons flooded to Hiro, which might well be a sign that both were scum wagons that day.
The only thing I can't see is both of them being Town since votes probably would've consolidated on one of them in that case, there was no need for scum to try to oppose either one.
If both were to be scum though, I don't understand xtfftc avoiding Mig's wagon like the plague today, a red Mig flip would relieve a lot of pressure on him.
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And I don't agree with that assumption supersoft, a Town Mig is not a hot kill target because:
1) He's suspected
2) If Mig were to die and flip Town xtfftc would very likely be turbolynched
There are many reasonable explanations for why Mig, if he is Town, was untouched by Mafia. I don't think that should be used as any indication.
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On August 26 2011 07:14 Curu wrote:
And I don't agree with that assumption supersoft, a Town Mig is not a hot kill target because:
1) He's suspected
2) If Mig were to die and flip Town xtfftc would very likely be turbolynched
There are many reasonable explanations for why Mig, if he is Town, was untouched by Mafia. I don't think that should be used as any indication.
hmm you're right. However at least I think it's strange that absolutely no scum voted him. (assuming that I am correct with my judgements over these people)
As for xtfftc who refuses to vote for mig and prefers to go for kurumi; I think it might be possible that he underestimates the case against him. Therefor he tries to establish another target with a huge post to peel of votes from mig.
At the point of time when he accused kurumi, I already posted that kurumi might be scum because of the possibility of a acum vigilante. So he wasn't completely alone with that.
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EPT
