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TL Mafia XLIV - Page 84

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Mig
Profile Blog Joined October 2004
United States4714 Posts
August 26 2011 10:17 GMT
#1661
I was more suspicious of chaos than BB? Not exactly rocket science.

Super instead of lynching me for information. Look at everything I have done. Look at everything chaos has done and determine who is scum. If you think I planned out this gambit from last night killing jackal then breadcrumbing just so I could fake claim to kill chaos then go ahead and lynch me.
Moderator
Mig
Profile Blog Joined October 2004
United States4714 Posts
August 26 2011 10:18 GMT
#1662
I tracked jeejee because last game I played with him he was very lurky as scum. But when looking at his other games he was also very lurky in werewolves as a dt. So I figured powerblue/scum were both possible.
Moderator
supersoft
Profile Joined April 2010
Germany3729 Posts
August 26 2011 10:26 GMT
#1663
On August 26 2011 19:17 Mig wrote:
I was more suspicious of chaos than BB? Not exactly rocket science.

Super instead of lynching me for information. Look at everything I have done. Look at everything chaos has done and determine who is scum. If you think I planned out this gambit from last night killing jackal then breadcrumbing just so I could fake claim to kill chaos then go ahead and lynch me.


I don't want to lynch you for information. I posted my reasosn for lynching you in like 3 big fat postings earlier in the thread.

I just pointed out, that you are not confirmed blue if chaos13 flips red.
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
August 26 2011 10:31 GMT
#1664
I've read Mig's posts a number of times, and his frustration yesterday has seemed genuine, as well as his read developments. I'm inclined to believe his claim, and I would like to see what chaos13's response is now.

@supersoft, if he is bussing his own team mate I'll just say thanks please. But the exchange between chaos13 and mig today doesn't look forged to me.
Bartundar
xtfftc
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United Kingdom2343 Posts
August 26 2011 10:32 GMT
#1665
This is a response to Curu's ealier post, spoilered because discussing Mig's claim is priority at the moment.

+ Show Spoiler +
Oh, wow. Curu and Supersoft appear simultaneously 36 hours before the deadline and announce that I have refused to vote for Mig, although there are 15 others who haven't at the time. Wow.

Okay, here goes. Curu, I addressed my early policy posts already: I wasn't advocating lurking; I was advocating against lynching lurkers. Please read my responses to the previous cases build against me before re-posting the same accusations. If you have anything to say about me responses, great - but completely ignoring the responces reveals that you didn't build a proper case.

Then in the VERY SAME POST, he tells Foolishness to consider that Palmar is scum. When called out by Foolishness, he is very adamant in pointing out he did not accuse Foolishness of being Mafia and drops the topic completely rather than trying to argue his point (which was a giant contradiction anyways).


I didn't say Palmar was mafia; I said that Foolishness shouldn't rule out the possibility simply because of meta arguments - so there was no other point to argue for. This was also the time when I was trying to motivate Palmar to get his act straight instead of disorganising town. There is no contradiction in my actions.

I really don’t understand what is going on in here at all.


Okay, I will explain it to you then. I wasn't arguing that Palmar was mafia; I wanted to motivate Palmar to be more constructive because I thought - and still do - that he had a good lead against BrownBear. A townie voting for him is can serve as a wake-up call. And soon after Palmar posted a well-written and rather convincing case.
Similarly, DropBear was mentioned because his mayor campaign was rather stupid and I was hoping to incite him to get his act together. My concern was obviously justified as his DT claim on Day 2 was even worse than what he did on Day 1.
Out of the three, BrownBear was the only one I was actually suspicious of.

When I asked him to tell me right then and there what he felt about Sevyrn, he said Mafia. The thing is, if he was already so sure in his mind that Sevyrn was Mafia, why was his vote not there?

No, when you asked me, I said I'd like to spend time analysing and wanted to wait for Sevyrn to defend himself before taking a stance on his alignment. When you pushed me to give you an immediate answer, I said that I think him to be mafia. How convenient of you to forget my initial reply.

Will gladly answer questions but won’t offer them unprompted by himself.

I had to spend a lot of time defending myself and couldn't provide enough analysis - but I started doing it as soon as things around me quieted down a bit. I posted a few things I think were overlooked by others and I also said that I am willing to answer all questions. Obviously, there is a limit to how much I can read and post.

He was very ready and willing to put his vote into Mig when he has never played with Mig before.

This is what I said about Mig:

Sure.

I'm still just as suspicious of Rayzor as I saw two days ago. His defense ("would a mafia say this?") did not convince me because he was in a position when he had to say something like this. However, just like to days ago, I think that he is someone who should be pressured to talk more until he makes another mistake or we are convinced he is town. Even if he is mafia, he is not particularly dangerous at the moment because he can not influence the town at the moment.

This is why at the moment I'd go for Mig. Although he improved after his early post about Sevryn, he did not provide anything substantial. Also, although a lot of people casted their vote for Sevryn and then went to bed, Mig did it in in the middle tha attempted switch to Rayzor.


I would like you to point me to the post where I was "very ready and willing to put" my vote into Mig - or to declare that you made a mistake in your analysis.

As a side-note, I still maintain the same position on Rayzor. He has gone into lurking/afk mode, which doesn't help his cause.

Quick to claim credit in case Rayzor flipped Mafia.

Context, please. I said this after being asked by Supersoft (who was supposedly providing deep analysis of my posts) about my opinion on Rayzor - although I had already posted about Rayzor earlier.

He calls Hiro a 100% confirmed Townie (I think under the assumption that Hiro’s self vote would show he is a Townie, but then why not try to convince people not to lynch Hiro?),

Okay, really? Hiro says that he is willing to vote for himself even though he is town. Therefore, Hiro knows that he is 100% town - hence my question. I didn't say that I thought he was 100% town, I said that if he is town, he knows it and shouldn't vote for himself no matter what.


If both were to be scum though, I don't understand xtfftc avoiding Mig's wagon like the plague today, a red Mig flip would relieve a lot of pressure on him.

A lot of people are lurking much more than me, yet if I don't jump on the wagon immediately, I am apparently avoiding it. You could have at least given me the time to join it or avoid it.

Not even a single mention of lynching Mig, instead actually chainsawing Mig’s attackers.

Kurumi was after Supersoft; you are just making up stuff again. Who did I "chainsaw" apart from him?

The only thing I can't see is both of them being Town since votes probably would've consolidated on one of them in that case, there was no need for scum to try to oppose either one.


I don't see the logic behind this. It's not like there were 20 votes for us, there were less than 10 combined.


On August 26 2011 07:22 supersoft wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 26 2011 07:14 Curu wrote:
And I don't agree with that assumption supersoft, a Town Mig is not a hot kill target because:

1) He's suspected
2) If Mig were to die and flip Town xtfftc would very likely be turbolynched

There are many reasonable explanations for why Mig, if he is Town, was untouched by Mafia. I don't think that should be used as any indication.


hmm you're right. However at least I think it's strange that absolutely no scum voted him. (assuming that I am correct with my judgements over these people)

As for xtfftc who refuses to vote for mig and prefers to go for kurumi; I think it might be possible that he underestimates the case against him. Therefor he tries to establish another target with a huge post to peel of votes from mig.

At the point of time when he accused kurumi, I already posted that kurumi might be scum because of the possibility of a acum vigilante. So he wasn't completely alone with that.

How dare I post an analysis on a suspicious player 44 hours before the deadline... And apparently I have refused to vote for Mig. Extremely suspicious indeed. Not at all like voting for Rayzor and changing your vote for Mig an hour and four posts later with this as reasoning:

Since noone is up for a Rayzorflashlynch, I vote for mig. Who knows if we find a majority for him tomorrow.
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
August 26 2011 11:53 GMT
#1666
Well Mig is now confirmed scum to me because I did not visit anyone last night, or the night before. I'm a vanilla townie, so there is no way I could visit anyone. If there is anyone who thinks they should believe Mig's claim, ask yourself why he wouldn't reveal something like this

On August 26 2011 19:09 xtfftc wrote:
Mig, who did you track on Night 1?


If he's going to be lynched you would think it would be a good idea to give town as much information as possible. Instead he forgets to do this and focuses solely on me.

Also if he was so sure I was mafia and he actually tracked me to a dead player last night why wouldn't he have said so earlier?
Mig
Profile Blog Joined October 2004
United States4714 Posts
August 26 2011 12:11 GMT
#1667
Yea I wonder why I wouldn't want to roleclaim a blue role chaos..... I claimed with around 15 hours left in the day. I didn't wait till last minute. The town has plenty of time to review all the information to determine if I am telling the truth.

I am glad you claimed VT, the only possible way you are not red now is if you are a noisy neighbor. But considering 2 of them have already died that seems pretty unlikely. I have given my defense if the town has any questions for me I will answer them. But either way if I die today you will die after.
Moderator
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
August 26 2011 12:15 GMT
#1668
Are NN's informed that they are NN's?
chaos13
Profile Joined April 2011
Canada885 Posts
August 26 2011 12:18 GMT
#1669
And in regards to this I remembered what I was thinking calling it lylo

On August 26 2011 02:31 Pyo wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 25 2011 20:56 chaos13 wrote:
Oh and in case nobody has realized, we are at LYLO right now.

Seems strange with 21 players left, but 6 mafia vs. 15 town with 3 kills each night. If we don't get mafia today it's only a matter of time til it's done.


Um... that's not LYLO... we have at least 2 days of no mafia lynches before lylo - not saying that we can afford to keep killing town, but there's no need to panic. "it's only a matter of time til it's done" was just as true before the game even began... Are you trying to blue-fish?


If we don't lynch mafia today, we cannot win. Even if we lynch mafia every day after, they will still kill us. Granted, this is not including vets/docs/vigi's, so depending on how many of those/how accurate they are we have a slight chance if Mig actually flips blue.
Mig
Profile Blog Joined October 2004
United States4714 Posts
August 26 2011 12:28 GMT
#1670
NN are just like millers. You are not informed about being one.
Moderator
Barundar
Profile Joined May 2010
Denmark1582 Posts
August 26 2011 12:33 GMT
#1671
On August 26 2011 21:15 chaos13 wrote:
Are NN's informed that they are NN's?

Of course not, they work like millers just with regards to watchers/trackers. And it's not lylo unless I can't count at all:

15 v 6 Today
14 v 6 Mislynch
11 v 6 Tomorrow

Which is lylo, because if we lynch that day it goes

11 v 5
8 v 5
8 v 4
6 v 4
6 v 3
4 v 3
4 v 2
3 v 2
3 v 1
2 v 1

I'm sure scum has done these calculations plenty though, so you get brownie points for being wrong.
Bartundar
Mig
Profile Blog Joined October 2004
United States4714 Posts
August 26 2011 12:36 GMT
#1672
After chaos flips look at the people who were against vote switching to him day2. From reading back through it I would look closely at.

Vain
Wherebugsgo
Lucidity
Chaoser

Besides them BB and maybe pyo/nard would most likely round out the scum team. If I had to list an exact team for what is most likely I would say.

BB
Chaoser
Vain
Lucid
Chaos
pyo
Moderator
Erandorr
Profile Blog Joined October 2010
2283 Posts
August 26 2011 12:43 GMT
#1673
On August 26 2011 19:17 Mig wrote:
I was more suspicious of chaos than BB? Not exactly rocket science.

Super instead of lynching me for information. Look at everything I have done. Look at everything chaos has done and determine who is scum. If you think I planned out this gambit from last night killing jackal then breadcrumbing just so I could fake claim to kill chaos then go ahead and lynch me.


Cool with me

## Vote mig
Curu
Profile Joined March 2010
Canada2817 Posts
August 26 2011 13:08 GMT
#1674
xtf it's because you are scummy as hell. I am convinced that if Mig isn't Mafia then you are 100% red. Mig flipping red would make you look better. You came in at a time when everyone was voting Mig to try to start something on Kurumi (after a whole bunch of speculation that you two were opposite alignments), the reason I pointed you out was because you were actually here and actually tried to point out someone else (while not voting for Mig or Kurumi), and now you've come back and planted your vote on Mig when you got called out for it.

chaos claim your flavortext please. Everyone post your opinion on Mig's claim, right now it strikes me as flailing scum (why not claim it as soon as you came under serious pressure?) but will have to reread both chaos and Mig with this possibility in mind.
wat
xtfftc
Profile Blog Joined April 2010
United Kingdom2343 Posts
August 26 2011 13:33 GMT
#1675
Curu, just because there is a theory that mafia tried to shift the attention from Mig to me, doesn't mean that if this theory is wrong, I am mafia. If both Hiro and Mig end up flipping, the argument that I avoided voting for Mig beucase I knew he was town doesn't make any sense as I voted for Hiro, another townie. If anything, mafia would have preferred Mig dead because he is the more dangerous player.

As to Mig's claim, I reckon both him and Chaos13 are mafia and are trying to get something out of Mig's lynch.
wherebugsgo
Profile Blog Joined February 2010
Japan10647 Posts
August 26 2011 13:34 GMT
#1676
Mig is mafia, he killed jackal, end of story.

Rofl @ me not wanting to vote switch to chaos. I even said that you flipping red, Mig, has no bearing on chaos's alignment. He could still be red, and I provided clear reasons for that.

I'm not for switching votes because you're scum! Not too hard to figure that one out.
Mig
Profile Blog Joined October 2004
United States4714 Posts
August 26 2011 13:40 GMT
#1677
Just kill chaos after I flip. I have done my part.
Moderator
supersoft
Profile Joined April 2010
Germany3729 Posts
August 26 2011 13:43 GMT
#1678
On August 26 2011 19:32 xtfftc wrote:
This is a response to Curu's ealier post, spoilered because discussing Mig's claim is priority at the moment.

+ Show Spoiler +
Oh, wow. Curu and Supersoft appear simultaneously 36 hours before the deadline and announce that I have refused to vote for Mig, although there are 15 others who haven't at the time. Wow.

Okay, here goes. Curu, I addressed my early policy posts already: I wasn't advocating lurking; I was advocating against lynching lurkers. Please read my responses to the previous cases build against me before re-posting the same accusations. If you have anything to say about me responses, great - but completely ignoring the responces reveals that you didn't build a proper case.

Then in the VERY SAME POST, he tells Foolishness to consider that Palmar is scum. When called out by Foolishness, he is very adamant in pointing out he did not accuse Foolishness of being Mafia and drops the topic completely rather than trying to argue his point (which was a giant contradiction anyways).


I didn't say Palmar was mafia; I said that Foolishness shouldn't rule out the possibility simply because of meta arguments - so there was no other point to argue for. This was also the time when I was trying to motivate Palmar to get his act straight instead of disorganising town. There is no contradiction in my actions.

I really don’t understand what is going on in here at all.


Okay, I will explain it to you then. I wasn't arguing that Palmar was mafia; I wanted to motivate Palmar to be more constructive because I thought - and still do - that he had a good lead against BrownBear. A townie voting for him is can serve as a wake-up call. And soon after Palmar posted a well-written and rather convincing case.
Similarly, DropBear was mentioned because his mayor campaign was rather stupid and I was hoping to incite him to get his act together. My concern was obviously justified as his DT claim on Day 2 was even worse than what he did on Day 1.
Out of the three, BrownBear was the only one I was actually suspicious of.

When I asked him to tell me right then and there what he felt about Sevyrn, he said Mafia. The thing is, if he was already so sure in his mind that Sevyrn was Mafia, why was his vote not there?

No, when you asked me, I said I'd like to spend time analysing and wanted to wait for Sevyrn to defend himself before taking a stance on his alignment. When you pushed me to give you an immediate answer, I said that I think him to be mafia. How convenient of you to forget my initial reply.

Will gladly answer questions but won’t offer them unprompted by himself.

I had to spend a lot of time defending myself and couldn't provide enough analysis - but I started doing it as soon as things around me quieted down a bit. I posted a few things I think were overlooked by others and I also said that I am willing to answer all questions. Obviously, there is a limit to how much I can read and post.

He was very ready and willing to put his vote into Mig when he has never played with Mig before.

This is what I said about Mig:

Sure.

I'm still just as suspicious of Rayzor as I saw two days ago. His defense ("would a mafia say this?") did not convince me because he was in a position when he had to say something like this. However, just like to days ago, I think that he is someone who should be pressured to talk more until he makes another mistake or we are convinced he is town. Even if he is mafia, he is not particularly dangerous at the moment because he can not influence the town at the moment.

This is why at the moment I'd go for Mig. Although he improved after his early post about Sevryn, he did not provide anything substantial. Also, although a lot of people casted their vote for Sevryn and then went to bed, Mig did it in in the middle tha attempted switch to Rayzor.


I would like you to point me to the post where I was "very ready and willing to put" my vote into Mig - or to declare that you made a mistake in your analysis.

As a side-note, I still maintain the same position on Rayzor. He has gone into lurking/afk mode, which doesn't help his cause.

Quick to claim credit in case Rayzor flipped Mafia.

Context, please. I said this after being asked by Supersoft (who was supposedly providing deep analysis of my posts) about my opinion on Rayzor - although I had already posted about Rayzor earlier.

He calls Hiro a 100% confirmed Townie (I think under the assumption that Hiro’s self vote would show he is a Townie, but then why not try to convince people not to lynch Hiro?),

Okay, really? Hiro says that he is willing to vote for himself even though he is town. Therefore, Hiro knows that he is 100% town - hence my question. I didn't say that I thought he was 100% town, I said that if he is town, he knows it and shouldn't vote for himself no matter what.


If both were to be scum though, I don't understand xtfftc avoiding Mig's wagon like the plague today, a red Mig flip would relieve a lot of pressure on him.

A lot of people are lurking much more than me, yet if I don't jump on the wagon immediately, I am apparently avoiding it. You could have at least given me the time to join it or avoid it.

Not even a single mention of lynching Mig, instead actually chainsawing Mig’s attackers.

Kurumi was after Supersoft; you are just making up stuff again. Who did I "chainsaw" apart from him?

The only thing I can't see is both of them being Town since votes probably would've consolidated on one of them in that case, there was no need for scum to try to oppose either one.


I don't see the logic behind this. It's not like there were 20 votes for us, there were less than 10 combined.


On August 26 2011 07:22 supersoft wrote:
Show nested quote +
On August 26 2011 07:14 Curu wrote:
And I don't agree with that assumption supersoft, a Town Mig is not a hot kill target because:

1) He's suspected
2) If Mig were to die and flip Town xtfftc would very likely be turbolynched

There are many reasonable explanations for why Mig, if he is Town, was untouched by Mafia. I don't think that should be used as any indication.


hmm you're right. However at least I think it's strange that absolutely no scum voted him. (assuming that I am correct with my judgements over these people)

As for xtfftc who refuses to vote for mig and prefers to go for kurumi; I think it might be possible that he underestimates the case against him. Therefor he tries to establish another target with a huge post to peel of votes from mig.

At the point of time when he accused kurumi, I already posted that kurumi might be scum because of the possibility of a acum vigilante. So he wasn't completely alone with that.

How dare I post an analysis on a suspicious player 44 hours before the deadline... And apparently I have refused to vote for Mig. Extremely suspicious indeed. Not at all like voting for Rayzor and changing your vote for Mig an hour and four posts later with this as reasoning:

Since noone is up for a Rayzorflashlynch, I vote for mig. Who knows if we find a majority for him tomorrow.


"Oh, wow. Curu and Supersoft appear simultaneously 36 hours before the deadline and announce that I have refused to vote for Mig, although there are 15 others who haven't at the time. Wow."

There are exactly 7 people that refused to vote for rayzorflahs at day1 and also didn't vote either you or mig at day2
You are one of them. I have been suspicious of most of them earlier and with different reasons.
Kurumi is not one of them. You accused him, that strengthens my concerns.
Until I am proven wrong by mig, rayzor or you flipping green, I continue to push this. Your vote on mig at this point of time doesn't change anything.

You know I have something good against you there. That's the reason, why you're talking to me again. Thank you.
Curu
Profile Joined March 2010
Canada2817 Posts
August 26 2011 15:27 GMT
#1679
Where the hell did everybody go?

xt it's because you're scummy as hell, and now you start a case against Kurumi instead of Mig (who you've been voting for last day) when people have started linking you as opposite alignments.
wat
Foolishness *
Profile Blog Joined May 2009
United States3044 Posts
August 26 2011 15:30 GMT
#1680
We can always just kill BrownBear and settle this Mig thing tomorrow. My case against BrownBear still stands as he hasn't even posted yet today, and he's only got 11 hours before day ends.

I do believe that Mig is lying, but part of me feels that we should just take the safest option here. If he's indeed the tracker, it will force the mafia to roleblock him (or they risk him finding a mafia so once he does die we will know who to lynch). Of course we will make him check whoever we want (Pyo). I also do not believe chaos13 to be mafia.

And Mig you never commented about my lurker list.
geript: "Foolishness's cases are persuasive and reasonable but leave you feeling dirty afterwards. Kinda like a whore." ---- Manager of the TL Mafia forum, come play!
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