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1) nard - Gets on Brownbear early on and then never talks about it again. Don't know if he was overwhelmed by the thread cause later on all he talks about is whatever is relevant at the time, never really references previous stances he had. He says:
"offers to vote himself to get a lynch… if he is scum he won’t follow through, if he is town he shouldn’t do it just to get a confirmed , dead townie."
to hiro and then later when hiro votes for himself, all nard can say is:
"hiro: a self-vote? why in heavens.. this makes no sense from any perspective at all. if you are town, try to defend yourself properly instead of making sure you get lynched. if you're scum... do the same lol." and doesn't even change his vote. Clearly hiro "followed through" and thus not scum since "scum wouldn't follow through". Suspicious.
2) lucidity - Aside from one very confusing and rambling post about...DB? hiro? he's done nothing for town. He started out the game trying to start discussion but then never follows up. His case against supersoft is basically "you didn't lynch that townie cause you knew he was townie! You're mafia" He talk about not understanding mig's reaction to DB's claim but he previously said that he didn't trust DB either and wanted to lynch. He keeps saying mig is scum, mig is scum, but he never votes for him, always opting for the second option. He looks like he's fake bussing his teammate, trying to look like he's bussing him but then never tryign to actually get him killed. Suspicous
3) Trotske - Can't even tell, he posted on Day 1 and that was about it. He charges straight out the door and says he's suspicious of you and then doesn't mention it again, picking rayzor as a good alternate lynch. I would peg him for town solely due to the fact that he afked, risked a modkill, and only was replaced cause GM is nice.
Between the three nard and lucidity are the most suspicious as sleeper lurker mafia
Out of the three, I'm most suspicious of lucidity and nard, one or both are probably lurking mafia
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##vote Mig
Foolishness's accusation of BrownBear convinced me more of Mig's scumminess than of BB's. complete null read on Lucid, can't make sense of his posts either way.
Nard is totally dismissive of all accusations and I've got a gut feeling that he's scum, just filtering his posts. Really not sure though.
Lucidity is scummy, because he
-wanted to kill a claimed medic
-wishy washy with his thoughts and suspicions
-believes Hiro's claim, then calls people scummy for doing the same.
trotske... I don't know. he was afk and now he's been replaced. Let's see what iGrok does.
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ebwopOn August 26 2011 08:31 Varpulis wrote:
##vote Mig
Foolishness's accusation of BrownBear convinced me more of Mig's scumminess than of BB's. complete null read on Lucid, can't make sense of his posts either way.
Nard is totally dismissive of all accusations and I've got a gut feeling that he's scum, just filtering his posts. Really not sure though.
Lucidity is scummy, because he
-wanted to kill a claimed medic
-wishy washy with his thoughts and suspicions
-believes Hiro's claim, then calls people scummy for doing the same.
trotske... I don't know. he was afk and now he's been replaced. Let's see what iGrok does.
read through his posts more carefully and changed my mind, then forgot to proofread. TT
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I must be old and tired. Have a headache too. Going to catch a nap
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Yay lots of good analysis 
I'm a bit bummed that no one responded to my massive post on Mig though haha. The conclusion might seem a little...far fetched, but I think there is a link between Mig and Rayzor.
The problem we have right now, I guess, is that we need to pick between lynching a lurker and lynching someone who has been more active. I will stand by my vote for Mig, and as I said earlier I am pushing for his lynch today. Upon reading some of these arguments, I can tell, however, that there is still some lingering doubt on Mig.
Can we discuss why some of this doubt exists?
Anyway, some of my opinions on the names that have been thrown around today. In red are the players I have the strongest scum reads on. In green, town reads. Black is either way, or not enough information.
Trotske/iGrok: + Show Spoiler +Trotske seemed scummy to me. I made an analysis of him a day or two ago; I suggest that you all read it (again.) However, I think we shouldn't be pushing for a lynch of iGrok because he's barely been here and we need more information before we can label him as scum.
xtfftc:+ Show Spoiler + I lean toward town on xt, but not as strongly as other players. I think xt needs some more investigation. Again, another person I think we should keep around, see if he contributes, see what information we can gain over the next day.
nard: + Show Spoiler +he hasn't posted enough. It's certainly possible that he's lurking scum. I usually excused his lack of posting when I was on because he's from Germany (right?) so the time difference seemed to explain a lot to me. However, even after I come back from a break he still hasn't posted, so that's rather strange to me. I don't recall nard once contributing to the town effort. Certainly a good lurker lynch candidate, in my opinion, but, again, we need to determine whether we will lynch a lurker today or lynch someone like Mig.
Lucidity: + Show Spoiler +I have a fairly strong town read on Lucidity. The manner in which he argued with supersoft after the hiro lynch, and the way he has written his larger posts, suggests to me that he is town. I don't think a mafia member would be so bold in such few posts. Since my job is to find scum and not confirm townies, I will not be wasting my time on Lucidity unless there is good analysis presented by other players to suggest a scum alignment.
Brownbear: + Show Spoiler +I think he's scum. Right now, he's conveniently disappeared following Foolish's accusations. It's been 22 hours since he said he'd come up with a rebuttal, (that would "have to wait till morning") but no rebuttal has been seen. Brownbear is trying to fly under the radar, IMO. We should make him a priority lynch target along with Mig, and then lynch one of them. By making Brownbear a priority, we can glean some good information about the alignments of the rest of the mafia we suspect. In addition, if we use two strong scum candidates such as Mig and Brownbear, there is no choice left for mafia but to bus one of their own.
It's possible we almost achieved that situation yesterday, but bad town play coupled with some sneaky mafia resulted in another town lynch.
Rayzorflash: + Show Spoiler +I already posted analysis on this guy and the connection I perceive between him and Mig. Click me
Mig + Show Spoiler +Likewise, I already posted analysis on Mig and the connection I perceive between him and Rayzor. IMO, our best candidate today. Click me
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One thing I might add, that I just remembered..
No corrupted liquidians have flipped. Therefore, it is certainly possible that there are 6 mafia PLUS 1-2 traitors who are going to fuck up our reads.
That means that our lynch today is very important. If we lynch town today, I'm fairly certain we will lose if there is even one traitor.
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No way there's more than 1 traitor, from a balance perspective.
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On August 26 2011 10:21 Varpulis wrote:
No way there's more than 1 traitor, from a balance perspective.
Let's assume there is one, and work that way?
We need to work with our worst case scenarios. Assume there's no blues, and that there is a traitor.
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On August 26 2011 10:33 wherebugsgo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2011 10:21 Varpulis wrote:
No way there's more than 1 traitor, from a balance perspective. Let's assume there is one, and work that way? We need to work with our worst case scenarios. Assume there's no blues, and that there is a traitor.
Why don't we not discuss what roles are/aren't in the game? it accomplishes little to nothing, and doesn't help us scumhunt. rolecrafting in a semi open setup without pms isn't worth much of anything.
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On August 26 2011 02:31 Pyo wrote:Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 20:56 chaos13 wrote:
Oh and in case nobody has realized, we are at LYLO right now.
Seems strange with 21 players left, but 6 mafia vs. 15 town with 3 kills each night. If we don't get mafia today it's only a matter of time til it's done. Um... that's not LYLO... we have at least 2 days of no mafia lynches before lylo - not saying that we can afford to keep killing town, but there's no need to panic. "it's only a matter of time til it's done" was just as true before the game even began... Are you trying to blue-fish?
Oh derp lol.
That wasn't blue fishing, it was overthinking.
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United States22154 Posts
Need one more replacement ASAP. PM me or sandroba
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Lol, wherebugsgo, you're really stretching when itcomes to the connection between me and Mig... Mig must be a horrible coach if his advice made me knowledgeable with regards to some aspects, yet ignorant with regards to others
So far, the only things I've said I dont know very well about the game are acronyms, because i skipped trying to look up what they meant while reading previous games. I am not being coached at all, and if I were a scum being coached, I probably have seemed less scummy. Also, if I was scum, I wouldnt have minded ANY townie getting lynched the first two days. instead, i've stuck with keeping my votes on the two people who seem scummiest to me.
I think a Mig lynch.is the best idea for today, and definitely does seem scummy, especially the way he came back only to defend himself and draw attention away from himself and the emotional appeal. Also, a Mig lynch would give us a lot of information about a lot of people (brownbear, foolishness, xtfftc, and also some of you guys heavily going after him now) and while I dont advocate lynching for info, the fact that we can get a lot of info from voting Mig will be good
##Vote: Mig
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United States4714 Posts
I was hoping I wouldn't have to claim but with everyone bandwagoning me doesn't look like there is much of a choice.
I am a tracker
Undead Hunter - welcome to TL Mafia XLIV you are Udit the Nightstalker. You are well known for being the only man alive to have followed a nightwalker at night and lived to tell the tale. The battle you had with it in the deep underground lair of Uzurki is still recounted by the legend keepers of the inquisition. Your thirst for greater challenges has brought you to Liquidia . You challenge yourself every night by following a liquidian , and seeing who they visit, you win when all the cultists are dead, decapitated and with a stake through their heart for good measure.
Last night I tracked chaos13 to jackal. So unless he is a watcher/dt/noisy neighbor he is guaranteed red. I bread crumbed this several times with my earlier posts today. Which is why I specifically mentioned why chaos would have the motivation to kill jackal in my posts against him.
On August 25 2011 14:26 Mig wrote:
People should really look hard at chaos. And look at the fact that every person who called him out has died and flipped green.
On August 25 2011 17:14 Mig wrote:
One last thing. Why did jackal die last night? Was anyone else getting blue vibes from him? I wasn't. Had he been especially active or provided any strong analysis? No. So why was he shot instead of someone like Curu or you barundar?
On August 25 2011 17:14 Mig wrote:
I am hunting you down chaos!
So lynch chaos. If he flips red/noisy neighbor I am pretty close to a confirmed tracker. If I am lying and he flips green just vig me tonight.
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Another thing about Mig.
Palmar was convinced in his innocence because Mig explained his relative inactivity with being "burned out" and deducted that Mig wouldn't use an excuse like this to divert accusations. This is the post Palmar was referring to:
On August 23 2011 09:19 Mig wrote:
My activity this game has been a lot lower than most of my games. I am really burned out on mafia right now. I have played too many games recently and I am going to take a break after this game. I have to force myself just to actually read the thread. It is no excuse for my poor play but it is the truth. So if I am lynched because of it my apologies for sucking.
But is no one else seeing the extremely poor reasoning behind some of the people jumping on my bandwagon?
Jackal - gives no reason whatsoever for voting me
dropbear - First you say you are ok with hiro because he tried to lead the lynch off of sevryn. Wtf I was trying to get people to vote chaoser before the rayzor bandwagon even really got started. And you even agreed with me while I was trying to make it happen. You then proceed to vote for me without giving a single reason.
Varp - Did you even read my post about meta arguments or did you just intentionally ignore the meaning of it? I am not against meta arguments. I used meta arguments to help get you lynched in the last game we played together. I use meta pretty much every game I play. My entire point was foolishness' meta argument was trash and didn't actually show I was scum at all.
Curu - just a pure meta reason
Nobody has defended me at all this game. Has my play really been so scummy this game that if I were mafia not a single one of my team members would be willing to try and save me?
If am lynched because of my poor play it's my own fault but people should take a look at everything surrounding my bandwagon.
Anyway it doesn't appear I have any shot at convincing people to vote chaoser so I will write up a case on who I feel is the next scummiest in the next few minutes.
All Mig wrote on him being burned out was this one paragraph. Judging by the respect everyone has for Mig, I'm pretty sure that he is a good enough player to be active even when he plays as mafia. Palmar put too much emphasis on this offhand comment and claimed that Mig wouldn't use such a "dirty" trick. Afterwards, Mig started posting a lot.
Let us presume that Mig is mafia indeed. He doesn't have the motivation to be his usual self and attracts suspicion. Palmar uses this lack of motivation to wrongly deduct that Mig is town because a mafia Mig would play fair and wouldn't use something like this to make his game easier. And then Mig, who never wanted an easy game and was just honest that he is not in the mood for mafia at the moment, feels compelled to increase his activity because he doesn't want to ruin the game for everyone else. It fits pretty well.
Mig being guilty also fits with my mafia read on Kurumi.
##Vote: Mig
On August 26 2011 04:50 Foolishness wrote:
In the meantime, I would like to hear peoples' opinions about the following 3 people:
1) nard
2) Lucidity
3) Trotske (now iGrok. I'm mainly focused on Trotske's posting since iGrok just joined in).
1) Nard's posts so far have been calls for town to get organised and not much more. He posted some analysis on Hiro and a defence of Mig near the deadline when it was obvious that Hiro was getting lynched. Apart from that he's been content to just stay out of the spotlight and deflect Supersoft's feeble attacks.
2) Lucidity doesn't have a lot of posts to be analysed. He wanted DropBear lynched yesterday at a time when I thought mafia wouldn't push for it. However, he was also one of the players who pushed for my lynch over Mig's and keeps on finding excuses about not contributing. First he was busy over the weekend, then he had a problem with wordy posts. He went after Supersoft at the beginning of Day 3 and even though Supersoft didn't bother explaining his actions, did not develop it further. But this isn't that much to work with really. I wouldn't be surprised if he is the one that needs replacement.
3) Trotske is impossible to read, so iGrok gets a headstart in case he is mafia. He seems to be eager to contribute but this means nothing for now.
All three are suspicious because of their lack of contributions but Nard is the best shot. iTrotske is just a coinflip at the moment. Lucidity has been looking for excuses and will eventually run out of them. Nard, however, simply doesn't post much but fluff.
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Mig, who did you track on Night 1?
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United States4714 Posts
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On August 26 2011 19:04 Mig wrote:I was hoping I wouldn't have to claim but with everyone bandwagoning me doesn't look like there is much of a choice. I am a tracker Undead Hunter - welcome to TL Mafia XLIV you are Udit the Nightstalker. You are well known for being the only man alive to have followed a nightwalker at night and lived to tell the tale. The battle you had with it in the deep underground lair of Uzurki is still recounted by the legend keepers of the inquisition. Your thirst for greater challenges has brought you to Liquidia . You challenge yourself every night by following a liquidian , and seeing who they visit, you win when all the cultists are dead, decapitated and with a stake through their heart for good measure. Last night I tracked chaos13 to jackal. So unless he is a watcher/dt/noisy neighbor he is guaranteed red. I bread crumbed this several times with my earlier posts today. Which is why I specifically mentioned why chaos would have the motivation to kill jackal in my posts against him. Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 14:26 Mig wrote:
People should really look hard at chaos. And look at the fact that every person who called him out has died and flipped green. Show nested quote +On August 25 2011 17:14 Mig wrote:
One last thing. Why did jackal die last night? Was anyone else getting blue vibes from him? I wasn't. Had he been especially active or provided any strong analysis? No. So why was he shot instead of someone like Curu or you barundar?
So lynch chaos. If he flips red/noisy neighbor I am pretty close to a confirmed tracker. If I am lying and he flips green just vig me tonight.
Okay Mig answer me this :
Why on earth would you track Chaos and not someone more in doubt , like BB ?
I would really love to hear an explanation on that one becuase to me it seems like you just want to get something out of your death at this point.
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mig, if you were scum, you would also know that chaos13 visited jackal. So him flipping red wouldn't confirm you as town. If you flip red chaos13 isn't confirmed either.
Only if you flip blue he's probably red. If he flips green, you're probably red
_____
conclusion: Only mig flipping blue gives us any information. chaos13 gives us nothing about mig.
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On August 26 2011 19:13 supersoft wrote:
mig, if you were scum, you would also know that chaos13 visited jackal. So him flipping red wouldn't confirm you as town. If you flip red chaos13 isn't confirmed either.
Only if you flip blue he's probably red. If he flips green, you're probably red
_____
conclusion: Only mig flipping blue gives us any information. chaos13 gives us nothing about mig.
Huh?
How would he know that chaos visited jackal? But I agree this is not enough to get either of them of, I didnt think that far ahead. It could be him trying to get either of them into the green you are right.
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On August 26 2011 19:12 Erandorr wrote:Show nested quote +On August 26 2011 19:04 Mig wrote:I was hoping I wouldn't have to claim but with everyone bandwagoning me doesn't look like there is much of a choice. I am a tracker Undead Hunter - welcome to TL Mafia XLIV you are Udit the Nightstalker. You are well known for being the only man alive to have followed a nightwalker at night and lived to tell the tale. The battle you had with it in the deep underground lair of Uzurki is still recounted by the legend keepers of the inquisition. Your thirst for greater challenges has brought you to Liquidia . You challenge yourself every night by following a liquidian , and seeing who they visit, you win when all the cultists are dead, decapitated and with a stake through their heart for good measure. Last night I tracked chaos13 to jackal. So unless he is a watcher/dt/noisy neighbor he is guaranteed red. I bread crumbed this several times with my earlier posts today. Which is why I specifically mentioned why chaos would have the motivation to kill jackal in my posts against him. On August 25 2011 14:26 Mig wrote:
People should really look hard at chaos. And look at the fact that every person who called him out has died and flipped green. On August 25 2011 17:14 Mig wrote:
One last thing. Why did jackal die last night? Was anyone else getting blue vibes from him? I wasn't. Had he been especially active or provided any strong analysis? No. So why was he shot instead of someone like Curu or you barundar?
On August 25 2011 17:14 Mig wrote:
I am hunting you down chaos! So lynch chaos. If he flips red/noisy neighbor I am pretty close to a confirmed tracker. If I am lying and he flips green just vig me tonight. Okay Mig answer me this : Why on earth would you track Chaos and not someone more in doubt , like BB ? I would really love to hear an explanation on that one becuase to me it seems like you just want to get something out of your death at this point.
Also, why JeeJee on Night 1?
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EPT
