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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
It's moot anyway because you later stated that you were 'only raising a possibility of how mafia might act' instead of what it actually was, an insistence that they would, in fact, lay low to survive...which in my experience is NEVER EVER the case. So could we please drop the 'WIFOM' argument because I'm sick of seeing that anagram and remembering a wonderful scene to a mediocre movie. | ||
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prplhz
Denmark8045 Posts
Right now I am mainly suspecting Mataza, mainly because of something that Mataza said early on: On May 16 2011 12:52 Mataza wrote: I think I overestimated my town  Now this statement could very well be benign but it is doing two things: degrading the town to diminish people's confidence in their ability to play this game (overestimate) making them more susceptible to get influenced by someone (himself) and setting himself up as a "leader" of the town (my town). I do not know why Mataza is trying to set himself up as a leader of the town but there are two scenarios: 1. He's a scum: He wants to control people and mislead them to vote for innocent people and keep the mafia save. 2. He's a townie: He wants to control people and lead to to vote for guilty scum and keep the town save. Either way he is trying to be a "leader" of the town and this in itself is bad. A town should never have a leader and should instead have people thinking very independently forming their own opinion, this should happen through discussion and activity of course. Mataza is very savvy and probably knows that having a leader is not good for a town, so why is he trying to set himself up to be one? This is a question that everybody should ask themselves. Now stuff that might talk against this: First: Mataza is actually not pointing fingers at anybody, I think we should be very careful if he ever decides to "lead" "his town" to vote for someone. Second (as pointed out by Mataza himself): If he is trying to lead this town as a scum would lead it we would quickly find out (we would lynch innocent people). And since we can afford losing people, trading a townie (guy Mataza would want to lynch) for a scum (Mataza) is really a good deal for the town. Maybe he is setting himself and the mafia up for mid/late game? This is a question that everybody should ask themselves. Other than that I think that all the debate around Mataza is hurting the town (we are not talking about someone else). So to stop this I am going to talk about someone else: VisceraEyes and GiygaS It is very hard for me to argue against VisceraEyes and GiygaS because I am also suspicious of Mataza. This is very hard because, while these two guys have been on Mataza's back the whole time they claim that it has been for the sake of activity. This has worked alright since these three guys are arguably the most contributing players in this game right now so their claimed plans have worked out well. But why are they not directing any of this activity against each other? This is a question that everybody should ask themselves. This gets even harder to analyze because there are two of them and thus several scenarios: Two townies being suspicious of someone? Two scums targetting an innocent townie? Or maybe the hardest scenario to deal with, one of each. I'm not going to go in depth with these scenarios, I will only present my initial conclusion: If they are scum they are not thinking long term, if they are mixed they will turn on each other, if they are townies ... Well as I said, I am also suspicious of Mataza  A final note on nard (something that Mataza cleverly pointed out too, removing some of my suspicions of him): On May 17 2011 02:25 nard wrote: i can imagine there are still some people thinking about what they could include in their first post which is not completely trivial - took me a while as well :p While this might be a whole new game for everybody it should not be hard for an innocent townie to write a simple "hello" post. Maybe nard is having a hard time writing his first post because he is a scum with a hidden agenda and then he is thinking that everybody else is having a hard time too? This is a question that everybody should ask themselves. | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
I'll speak soon to your point about me, but for the time being, thanks for speaking up at all. As Mataza so astutely observed, as one of the most active thus far in the thread (in regard to post number, I'm sure a lot of what I've posted is viewed as fluff) I'm absolutely one of the strongest candidates for a murderation tomorrow night. Active scum-hunters, honestly, could be viewed as stronger targets than even blue roles at this point when we don't have any idea if there even ARE blue roles, let alone who occupies them. | ||
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Mataza
Germany5364 Posts
I said "I overestimated my town" because I had to explain what nk and ly stand for, that cop doesn´t stand for doctor and that this game is 9 town vs 3 mafia, not 6 vs 3. That a single leader is bad for town is obvious. People who gather under 1 leader are following, not playing. That is not the fault of the leader, but the fault of the town, since they obey for no good reason. Leading in itself is what everyone should aim for. For the sake of having material, I request Palmar, Hiro Protagonist, Deepblue, Steff, Karshe and Nard to mouth their opinion on whether Mataza, Viscera eyes or Giygas might be mafia. Don´t group Viscera and giygas together even if they have the same opinion. Giygas bandwagoned, but he might simply be new to mafia. + Show Spoiler + Right now I think Wunder and Skrammen will be modkilled. If they are not modkilled, then they are highly suspicious for not saying anything. There is nothing to lose so take a stand. Use your own brain though, the person you copy you opinion from might be mafia. Even me. I will assume to be on trial, together with Viscera and Gig. I will henceforth only post if you specifically ask @Mataza, until everyone else has voiced an opinion. I would like you Viscera and Gig to do so, too. | ||
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nard
Germany124 Posts
 onto your note: While this might be a whole new game for everybody it should not be hard for an innocent townie to write a simple "hello" post. Maybe nard is having a hard time writing his first post because he is a scum with a hidden agenda and then he is thinking that everybody else is having a hard time too? This is a question that everybody should ask themselves. i realized when i made that post that it in itself is suspicious as well and thats kinda supporting the argument i posted - everything you post except a trivial "hello" might be endangering your life and i guess most if not all townies want not only the town to win, but also to survive until the end. as requested here are my opinions on the 3 most active posters. this is no deep analysis just some gut feelings after having read the last 2 thread pages. i might post a reasoning with quotes and all that jazz in a few hours when i have a break. Mataza - before prplhz posted his argument about him trying to set up a leadership he was pretty unsuspicious to me. currently undeciced, still tending to townie though. Viscera - so far the most suspicious. locking in on only Mataza, a lot of posts with lacking content. Giygas - less suspicious then Viscera. kind of in an odd place to make a decision as his posts are way less agressive / suspicious than viscera, but they keep appearing as a double tag team which makes it harder to form a seperate opinion on both. hoping for the 2 inactives to show up soon :> | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
Mataza: + Show Spoiler + Had initial scummy feeling, but maybe he's just aggressively trying to scum-hunt. Please note the following excerpt. At first i thought I would claim cop openly, but then I remembered that I just once saw a game where that ever worked. And boy how often it does not work. This means one of two things. A) He's a cop and accidentally outed himself in his very first line in the GAME (I'm inclined to disbelieve this based on posts since) B) He's admitting that no matter what role he was given, regardless of alignment, he had toyed with the idea of claiming cop from the very beginning. This isn't so much an indication of guilt as it is a reason his posts make my scum-sense tingle...I mean, unless he's cop I don't know a good way to read that first line...and if he IS a cop, well, that's not much better is it? Also, this guy has done the math on how many people need to die before mafia wins...watch carefully. Appears to be antagonizing people trying to learn the game... Asking the very basic questions is spam that doesn´t get us any information, which is anti town behaviour. I bet you 5 dollar that at least 1 mafia guy will pretend to not understand how the game works, if we keep asking dumb questions. We have Coaches for questions. Further, he appears to be hanging inactives out to dry d1...which seems a little scummy to me considering the low chance of actually hitting a maf...especially if Mata IS red, as he'll know if/which inactives are red if any. Palmar: + Show Spoiler + Big post about how lynching greens is okay until d3...much like Mataza...but with an added twist. And as Mataza pointed out, no matter the setup, we do have available more than one mis-lynches, so even if we do stake a townie this first day, we aren't in any trouble really. And more importantly, even if the person that dies is green, then we at least already have very valuable information on the people that wanted him dead. I had less of a problem with what he said (as the logic is relatively sound) but more HOW he said it. Even if we stake a townie we aren't in trouble really. EVEN IF the person that dies is green. It seems to me that a reassuring soul would say 'Even if the person that dies is blue' which would be the worse case in this example. Weak read, but worth mentioning imho GiygaS: + Show Spoiler + Feels green except for how quickly he jumped on Mata after I even hinted at a reddish hue. This immediately AFTER a very friendly post encouraging people to post. Left me thinking 'Why, so you could immediately CAPSLOCKMAFIA them like Mata? Watch carefully. Mataza: + Show Spoiler + Okay, now I'm suspicious. After explaining why I PERSONALLY would remain calm if doubt was cast my direction, Mataza immediately gets defensive and after sprinkling blame on others for their "useless" posts that are "anti-town", requests that we hold off on blaming until after we hear from people. Imagine that. Oh, but at least that doesn't stop him from immediately casting my posts into doubt...almost as soon as he makes said request. I sense a FoS coming that I won't be able to contain. There are my notes. Some of it has been resolved, some of it has not. I don't so much suspect Palmar anymore as his tone seemed much more townie in his posts since. And while I don't like how QUICKLY GiygaS jumped on Mata, his reasoning is at least reasonable (imo) and as such has started to look more green to me. Everyone else' posts just don't scream RED the way Mataza's do. But as I've stated before, I'd vote if I felt sure enough. I'm not. Discuss. | ||
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DeepBlu2
United States975 Posts
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
Hopefully my post sheds some light on why it appears that I'm focusing (tunneling?) Mataza. I loathe to call it tunneling though as there isn't much else going on for me to even COMMENT on other than our little dialogue back and forth...but it's true, my only suspicion so far is Mataza. I'm interested to know what is suspicious about my posts ASIDE from my lack of content. Lack of content isn't scummy itself. It has to be accompanied by other outside factors (attempting to derail conversations, intent to confuse fencers to name a couple). | ||
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hiro protagonist
1294 Posts
the first two people I gonna talk about are the ones i have the most read on/talked the most o far: VisceraEyes: He was the most active in the first few pages, with most of his post wanting simply for all active players to say hi. Also mentioning not to take suspicions of one another as a bad thing. I can agree with this line of logic, as it will foster a more friendly town, and get in on the scum hunting. His FoS of Mataza looks more like a call for discussion then an actual accusation. my worry is that he is almost TOO town, and is a likely prime hit for Mafia, unless of course he IS Mafia. Mataza: considered the most suspicious as of right now, and with good reasoning. His first post was one of feinting a cop role. and Has been very Defensive initially when VisceraEye ask a question. Then he points the finger right back at VisceraEyes. after that he claims that he "just wanted to see how you would react". However he made a good post about how he wants to talk about what everyone else thinks, and his post are in the vein of scumhunting (when his not busy defending himself). not sure what to think of him tbh. Next up GiygaS, nord, Palmar,: These 3 have the most posts with the least amount of Analysis. most likely town wanting to hang low or wait and see before going into to much discussion. GiygaS has done the most in getting discussion going, expesialy around what VisceraEye and Mataza have been saying. not alot to go on. prplhz: quite at first but then a solid post with good analysis. Deepblue, Steff, Karshe: still need to here more from them. deepblue has gotten in pretty late with just a one liner. gonna watch to see if he is gonna just slide under the modkill, as there are still some inactives, and is laying low(as in acting scummy) thats it for now. | ||
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GiygaS
Canada1043 Posts
Inactives: 2 Guys we haven't seen, may get modkilled. Can't make an opinion on them yet. Karshe: + Show Spoiler + Hasen't really posted anything good at all. Might get modkilled, I don't know about him. stefftastiq: + Show Spoiler + Hasen't posted much but a brief "hello". Mentionned something about people being trigger-happy. I'm a tad suspicious as he should have posted again by now. Deepblu2 + Show Spoiler + On May 17 2011 05:41 DeepBlu2 wrote: I am here. This is off to a good start. I am active..Not sure who I think atm. On May 17 2011 11:57 DeepBlu2 wrote: I'm leaning towards Mataza at the moment. I'm not positive yet but just the fact he's defending himself so aggressively and has been caught with a couple of contradictions while blaming others as well. I'm going to be keep looking at his posts but he's my only suspect currently. I'm not saying it's definitely Mataza just the way he's handling himself is very defensive. Deepblu just posted so I haven't really had a chance to analyse his most recent post, but I'll give it a shot. His first post detailed how he's indeed "active" and he's formulating an opinion. Initially a bit scummy, if he hadn't posted anything, but he has now, so that lowers a bit of his suspicion. Based on his recent entry, he's leaning towards Mataza, based on his defensive stance. Overall, hasen't really produced much content, so I can't really say much about him. More active people: Mataza + Show Spoiler + Now, this guy seems a bit scummy to me, PROBABLY the most so far. The reasons have been brought up already: - He's implying he wants to become A leader of the town (maybe so he can control people? I don't know) - He is very defensive about his spot, very resilient to abandon anything. I don't know if this means he's mafia, but a person who goes out his way to say he's innocent seems a bit guilty :/ - Mentioned how many days Mafia has to stay alive. Good just be some helpful math. - HOWEVER after all this, he said he puts himself officially on trial. And he will only answer questions specifically asked at him. This implies he knows he has done wrong and wants to get a bit out of the spotlight. This is most likely because he's tired of constantly defending himself, but it could also be that he's Mafia and wants to sink back in to the shadows. I'm a bit suspicious of him. Also, he's got my name wrong twice now (it's not gigays, or gigas, it's giygas  )VisceraEyes: + Show Spoiler + Got into Mataza as soon as the game begun, might just because he wants activity. The fact he HAS been avoiding questions to attack Mataza some more, which may imply he's trying to avoid them so that he doesn't have any answers. Don't know what I think of him, a bit suspicious. prplhz (anyone got tricks for this guy's name? )+ Show Spoiler + Seems very rational to me. Got some more discussion other then the back and forth between me, Mataza and VisceraEyes. Seems very pro-town to me, but once again, your best friends can sometimes be your worst enemies. I'm not very suspicious of him. nard + Show Spoiler + Kind of interesting. This guy has posted three times. Once to remind us all that it's too early to start making conclusions about Mataza, one that reminds us all that we have 48 hours before we have to make a decision and to take some time, and finally one that answers some suspicions on his first post, and saying he's not too suspicious of Mataza, and suspicous of me and Viscera (more Viscera). I don't know what this means, but IF we find out that Mataza is indeed a Mafia, I believe this guy is probably a cohort based on his behind-the-scenes support for the guy. I'm a bit suspicious of him. Palmar: + Show Spoiler + Has mostly mentioned inactives and getting some debate going on that topic. He may just be curious. That said, he was the first one to mention and notice Nard's post on being saying it was difficult to post the first time. Hasen't really added a lot of real content, but I believe he's pro-town. Only the minutest amount of suspicion. hiro protagonist + Show Spoiler + On May 17 2011 02:58 hiro protagonist wrote: Its true that lurking round is a good place for scum to hide, as there is little evidence to indict them. how ever all but 3 of us have posted and I doubt that ALL of the inactives will be scum... best bet is a scum has already posted, so we should try to sniff em out! If we don't have a good lead by tomorrow, then we should ask the lurkers to step up and explain themselves... That's his only post. Unfortunately, we don't get any background info on what country he lives in, so we can't analyse when he'll post. Unfortunate :/ The fact that he did add SOMETHING (scum have probably posted) shows he MIGHT be pro-town in his behavior. Don't know what to think on him due to inactivity. EDIT: Okay, he just posted another one that added a bit more content, so I moved him down here. Basically listing his suspicions. Seem's a bit more mafia now to be honest based on his bandwagonning to everyone else, but he may just agree with some people. EDIT: Yes, this is my first time EVER playing mafia, so this is a new experience for me. i'm gonna be interested to see if anything else develops. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
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GiygaS
Canada1043 Posts
On May 17 2011 12:33 Varpulis wrote: NO EDITING Even if I note EDIT? And the post mentionned editing when it was posting. Sorry, it's already been done D: | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
example: I'm pretty sure that GMarshal is mafia. He chaoser been scummy together EBWOP: He and chaoser have been scummy together. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
For example, Imagine that I'm one of the mafia, and I post a scumlist, then check through the thread again and see that nobody else thinks that Node is scum, If i were allowed to edit, I could delete Node from my scumlist and fit in better with the town, and nobody will be able to point out later that I was suspicious of Node. Do you understand why we don't allow editing? | ||
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GiygaS
Canada1043 Posts
On May 17 2011 12:44 Varpulis wrote: EBWOP: the reason for this is that editing allows players to alter the information that the rest of the town can use to analyze you. For example, Imagine that I'm one of the mafia, and I post a scumlist, then check through the thread again and see that nobody else thinks that Node is scum, If i were allowed to edit, I could delete Node from my scumlist and fit in better with the town, and nobody will be able to point out later that I was suspicious of Node. Do you understand why we don't allow editing? Yeah, sorry. What can I do now though? Won't do it again BTW. | ||
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Varpulis
United States2517 Posts
On May 17 2011 12:50 GiygaS wrote: Yeah, sorry. What can I do now though? Won't do it again BTW. Just don't do it again, life goes on. You weren't trying to abuse the tool, so it's all ok as long as you've learned your lesson. Up to the hosts though, I guess. I'm going to stop disrupting your guy's game now. | ||
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Karshe
United States212 Posts
I've got caught up, and here are my thoughts. I am most suspicious of Mataza right now. I wouldn't go as far to vote him, yet, but I have my reservations. Since this is openly a noobie game, this was my first thought going into the game: On May 17 2011 00:56 Karshe wrote: The only thing to watch for is scum posting general tips/math to gain town cred while not actually helping our hunt. And yes, I realize I could qualify under that last statement. =P and this was one of Mataza's first posts: On May 16 2011 12:16 Mataza wrote: Small math problem. 12 day1 ly nk 10 day2 ly nk 8 day 3 ly nk 6 day4 So scum is forced to lay really low, if they ever want to stand a chance. To newer players to the game--myself somewhat included--this sounds like a foreign language and some may think, "Man, he knows what he's talking about... I better listen to what this guy has to say." I propose that was Mataza's intention for posting the math so early on. On May 17 2011 02:49 Mataza wrote: I am curious what these various questions. So far I only gathered one: "Tell us why you´re/you´re not mafia!" I very well might be mafia, as everyone of you might be mafia too. But I can´t go ahead and tell you my plans before half the people posted, because then these plans wouldn´t work.(Since mafia would know what to do or what not to do.) About the inactives: Dependant on the number of inactives, it´s not a bad idea to lynch them. Low activity means they aren´t really helping the town and therefore it´s not a big loss. We wouldn´t lose any amount of discussion. But we can´t do that right now, because a) the day isn´t nearly over and b) there are too many. But people who do not post/do no vote are modkilled at the end of the cycle. One of Mataza's next longer posts, which can be summarized to rephrasing things that have already been said I would argue that even for a noobie game, a lot of this is stating common sense. Yes, we know you could be mafia. That's how the game works. I feel this is another example of gaining town cred while not actually contributing. It looks as though my main argument was also noticed by Giygas (to give credit where credit is due): On May 16 2011 15:52 GiygaS wrote: Mhm, and you've also mentioned the Mafia's purported strategy, which is to stay under the radar. Something you haven't done. If you wanted someone to go off the path of finding the mafia, you would say that the strategy they would perform would be completely opposite to what you were doing. Also, you were the first one to make basic rules to know HE IS THE MAFIA. I believe that Mataza attempted to put an early notion into newer players heads that mafia will attempt to lay as low as possible, while he himself is a mafia and one of the most active posters. My initial gut feeling thus far is that Giygas is town. I feel as though he has done a great job at generating discussion without having done anything I can point out as shady. I haven't made a decision on VisceraEyes yet, for now he is an active poster and I would personally rather lynch an inactive compared to a helpful/active poster on Day 1, if that's what it comes down to. Sorry to wrap this up short but I haven't eaten dinner yet. I will check in before bed for updates. | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
Lots of discussion now - you getting all this? | ||
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Mataza
Germany5364 Posts
I do state the obvious since this is a newbie game. And since the very beginning I had the feeling that some people do not know how this really works. I also "defend" myself as people are requesting answers for questions that they don´t write. I especially like "various questions". Giygass requests answers for nonsensical questions. Viscera took what I said and distorted it. His point on me provoking wifom is wrong. I urge you to reread that. I will make my cases later in the day. It´s 8 in the morning over here, gotta get busy. | ||
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VisceraEyes
United States21170 Posts
I hope this doesn't read as backpedaling, but upon further analysis, I don't have enough faith in my read to really go any further with it. In spite of my misgivings, most everything he's said HAS appeared to be pro-town, except from when he was defending himself from me. I would like clarification of your first post though Mataza. What did you mean by 'I thought about claiming cop'...do you mean you thought about it before you knew your role? You thought about it after you recieved your role? I understand that it's quite a ways back (first post from you), but it would really ease my mind if you could clarify that one statement. On everything else I'll lay off. @stefftastic I'd really like to hear more from you as you have precious few posts and you're one of the remaining people who has yet to really give an opinion on anything. | ||
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