EPTPick Your Power: Redux - Page 58
| Forum Index > TL Mafia |
|
Qatol
United States3165 Posts
| ||
|
Misder
United States1557 Posts
Qatol, was the main reason you jailed risk to protect him or to roleblock him. Does risk get his bullet back if Qatol jails him again? I would say most likely, talismania saved someone last night, but there is also have the possibility that mafia tried to hit SK. | ||
|
Qatol
United States3165 Posts
On May 21 2012 11:04 Misder wrote: I'm fine with a roleclaim tomorrow, although I am wondering- are we hoping that scum trips up when we roleclaim or to organize town. Qatol, was the main reason you jailed risk to protect him or to roleblock him. Does risk get his bullet back if Qatol jails him again? I would say most likely, talismania saved someone last night, but there is also have the possibility that mafia tried to hit SK. Both, actually, which was why it was a rather easy decision to protect him last night. I had no idea whom he was going to shoot and his behavior regarding our earlier plans made me loath to simply trust him to shoot PaqMan. On the other hand, I also realized that he has an extremely powerful role which I would like to keep in the game, so I didn't want to see him shot. I'm obviously not going to say whether or not I plan to jail risk.nuke again. However, I'll say this: I don't think a shot right now is a good idea - we don't have any real leads at the moment, only a list of "maybes." I think it's better to let the mafia/SK shoot into the maybes for us or potentially allow a Bullet Bill/Parity Cop/Role Cop to hide within that group and put together pieces. If talismania saved a townie, why hasn't that townie claimed yet? The only other options are that talismania saved a mafia and that mafia is afraid to claim (seems unlikely), or talismania didn't save anyone and either the mafia and SK both shot talismania or the mafia shot the SK. | ||
|
slOosh
3291 Posts
Sorry for the delayed post - (insert excuse). I've reread the thread and here are my thoughts and conclusions (they might be a bit jumbled, its kinda late and I'm sleepy). First are the scum team role picks combined with these posts by sentinel: On May 17 2012 11:10 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: Why would you kill one of your own just so the copycat can get the same role? Makes no sense. On May 17 2012 23:26 [UoN]Sentinel wrote: I did not get janitor  I would say that if scum have a copycat there are prolly more scums in the lower end of the draft. If they were high up they'd rather go for guaranteed power roles like decon did or try to deny town of powers. Either way I'd reckon the copycat is in the bottom ten of the draft. Scum team drafted CPR doc, JOAT and two more roles, PaqMan bouncing and getting vanilla. He could have bounced off So in the post that Sentinel makes (the one that starts a huge mess, averts attention from PaqMan but backfires and gets himself lynched), he is interested in bringing up the copycat role. However, during draft discussion, the only few people who bring up the copy cat are (sort of off the top of my head), Barundar and slOosh (me), with a few people discussing it, none of which are scum team members. Thus I think that Sentinel is pushing the idea that scum team could have a copy cat and starts hypothesizing about that, which leads me to my conclusion that the 4th member is not a copy cat, but rather a janitor (or vanilla if the SK picked janitor for some reason). The scum team plan would revolve around just that - picking up lots of KP, shooting many people and covering up valuable info. I would say that it is very possible that the copy cat role is not even in the game (evidenced by lack of additional KP, scum or SK would be auto using it every round). Second point: PaqMan voted risk after there were already 10 votes (majority requirement) on Sentinel, which leads me to believe that either scum team is very disorganized (which is possible) or that they did not plan on bussing him i.e. the final scum also voted for risk. Third point: .... Sorry guys its getting late and I gotta wrap this up, and I'll finish it tomorrow. But it concludes with me saying Palmar and Sandroba are very suspicious. Sandroba because his dealings with the sentinel fiasco are really weird (such bringing up why Palmar is pardoner and not bothering to comment on Sentinel until way later), his traitor idea, his no lynch stance, just really weird stuff. Palmar is from process of elimination and vote analysis (i.e. he voted risk and everyone else looks more townie to me than him). Guessing that Sandroba is the SK and Palmar is scum because of voting but the traitor role is possible for them I suppose. | ||
|
Qatol
United States3165 Posts
If the 4th member is a Janitor, how do they get around marvellosity's 50/50 chance of picking the role? I know he didn't actually do it, but scum wouldn't know that at the time unless marvellosity is scum (which I doubt). Do you think they just chanced it? I think the mafia could have gone a lot of different ways with that 4th pick and it's too hard to predict at this time what that would be. All we can do right now is rule out roles they were unlikely to pick which we know are in the game. I agree that it is very much possible (and probably quite likely) that the final scum member voted for risk.nuke as opposed to Sentinel. Losing the JOAT before he got his shot off was a huge blow to the mafia, and I think they did everything they could to keep that from happening. Where does marvellosity's townie's claim that the politician role was taken in front of him (and the fact that nobody stepped up and claimed getting it, which is why we think it's in SK hands - mafia would have saved Sentinel with it) fit in? If Sandroba is the SK, this is literally impossible because Sandroba had the last pick. And your analysis earlier points to the final mafia member likely being a risk.nuke voter, which Sandroba was not. I don't see any reason to put sandroba high on a suspicion list right now. Palmar is obviously a different story and more of a possibility, though I don't think he's particularly likely as a SK candidate either. He's too low on the list. However, we will know more after marvellosity's townie claims (which I hope he will once day 3 begins). | ||
|
Snarfs
Canada1006 Posts
| ||
|
Barundar
Denmark1582 Posts
| ||
|
Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
On May 21 2012 15:24 Snarfs wrote: Why would anyone roleblock Palmar? Only a traitor or a roleblocker are left that could do that. Just reiterating so that everyone can make note of it. Town roleblocker thinking I'm scum/SK? | ||
|
Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
On May 21 2012 03:32 Qatol wrote: Contrary to what Palmar said earlier, I don't believe anyone here is an idiot for treating him as probably innocent. (Sorry to sidetrack, but the comment has been bothering me ever since Palmar made it the other day.) I said that with the intention of riling you up. Seeing as how badly I've played this game I guess I owe you an apology. | ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On May 21 2012 17:00 Barundar wrote: I see my name getting thrown around a lot without any reasons, and quite frankly it makes me less likely to contribute. I didn't take a hit last night (and why would they hit me), but hey maybe the last mafia will be nice and tell us who the sk is when we get him. and thus makes me yet more suspicious. The glorious circle. Let's lynch him | ||
|
Barbiero
Brazil5259 Posts
On May 21 2012 19:10 marvellosity wrote: and thus makes me yet more suspicious. The glorious circle. Let's lynch him Marv, you gave us some important info about a vanilla that tried for politician. Can you discuss with him the possible of him claiming? Narrowing down the list of potential SK targets would be amazing at this point. | ||
|
Barbiero
Brazil5259 Posts
| ||
|
zelblade
Australia901 Posts
Assuming roleblocks carry off into the day, a town roleblocker (who may have taken the role to deny it off scum) could have roleblocked Palmar just in case he decided to do anything with his pardon. @Barundar How does having your name thrown around (aka people voicing their suspicions on you) make you less likely to contribute? | ||
|
Bluelightz
Indonesia2463 Posts
Preface: That's right people, I'm suspicious of him, after, well, people throwing out his name into the thread, his post's are suspicious and he has the bare minimum (Might I say so?) of post's and scum-hunting. Points in the case will be divided by asterisks(*) colored red and sections by page breaks. Day 1 + Role Discussing phase Firstly, Barundar start's the game with a: On May 15 2012 02:48 Barundar wrote: Denying roles worked best in the last game I played, PYP:Interesting I think it was. I picked a recruiter GF at the number 3 pick spot in that game, but looking back I should have picked a CPR doc since it went to a mafia low down in the picking instead. That said I'm completely behind Sandrobas list. While on denying roles, copy cat is a very powerful mafia role, and it's not boring town role, so definitely consider it if you end up in the just below top range. (for those unsure why it's a good mafia role, town tends to spill what roles they have early, they can then snipe the roles they need and pick it up.) And I'm already fairly certain we have a town sandro this game based on his offensive planning and intensive questioning. While it's not something we have to decide yet, I would totally get behind a CPR on sandro, mass medic backup snipe game. While I agree we need to randomize our powerroles, PYP:I was also super easy because we maxed out blue roles. Without being too specific to avoid snipes, if you end up lowish in the list please pickup heroes like medics and be a hero, even if it's not a superman you can still win the game for us. Don't be afraid to pick up stuff like role cop either, you can tell a lot from peoples alignment through their roles, in the PYP's I have played mafia has never been afraid to pick mafia power roles. And lastly, regarding the traitor. I know some people got dissapointed when they didn't get a mafia role. Let me just say in all the PYP's so far, someone else has picked traitor as well, and when they didnt get it claimed in thread. Very easy to hunt down the guilty person from a short list then. Let's pick away at this post, First, extreme useless slinging of unrelated to the game (which is the italicized part of the post, the unrelated to the game stuff is something like 'okay copycat iz not boring' 'man pyp:i was ez'). Second, what I find suspicious is that, in a situation where we are discussing roles, Barundar threw some random reads into the post (the second paragraph) to somehow, make his post more 'large' and look like contributing but to the discussion, his substance is actually, less. Also, on the paragraph about traitors, the part I bolded, it seems like he *knows* that he got scum and therefore he got the balls to say that 'fuck yes i got scum other people must be dissapointed about not getting it rofl'. So, in conclusion about this post, while this contributes 'some' information to the discussion, his overall post is can I put it, 'less'. **************************************************** Next, when I pointed out about Matt's reasonless post's (at the time, I thought he was scum but now I think he's town with the day vig shot), he hapily jumped and went for it, and he could always, just say if Matt got lynched and flipped town, he could point the blame of starting the Matt lynch to me, rather then him. On May 16 2012 20:41 Barundar wrote: Regarding Mattchew, these posts stroked me the wrong way: Doesn't push his plan, just suggest it and asks for it to be shot down. **************************************************** Next, as I read his filter, this post comes to mind, this post, has most of the elements of a very useless post's (useless topic and pointless statistics), by useless topics I mean that, what number X picked is not very important right now, this might make him look like contributing but he isnt. Statistics is suspicious as its just a way to fill out post's with useless stuff as everyone can see and make statistics  .On May 18 2012 00:23 Barundar wrote: If you aren't mafia, it's likely that noone picked copycat, or that it is in town hands. At least wiggles picked up CC in PYP:I. I reserve my final judgement of you for when we know if a CPR doc KP is in the night posts. If you are town, clever seen with the numbers, got no problem sharing my list: deconduo [1] [1] Mafia CPR doc risk.nuke [4] [2] marvellosity [7] [2] [UoN]Sentinel [9] [1] Mattchew [11] [x] Day vig zelblade [12] [x] Bluelightz [14] [x] talismania [15] [1] Misder [2] [1-2] PaqMan [2] [2] slOosh [10] [x] Toadesstern [10] [10] Barundar [3] [1] Zephirdd [3] [2] hiro protagonist [3] [2+] Palmar [5] [1] Snarfs [5] [1] Qatol [5] [1] sandroba [5/0] [x] Probulous [5/0] [x] town modkill The unimportant detail I can't know for certain is if zelblade/bluelights picked 12, 13 or 14, I just gave them 12 and 14. **************************************************** The last point for this day, is that his vote, the thing I found suspicious is that, he set up to vote risk if a consensus ever came on him, and that his vote was due to 'k so sentinel is totally scumz logic says so k' but, as I previously said he lightly prepared a vote on risk should the vote be swayed (the bolded part). On May 18 2012 17:17 Barundar wrote: It bothers me a lot that this is not a discussion spearheaded by themself, you all three have better insight than the rest of us so you should know someone is lying and do something about it wtf. @toad if i had a list check of 3 people with 1 mafia on it I would 100% lynch into it. Standard logic tells me to confirm the vanilla claim first, so a tentative vote on sentinel for now. Risk.nuke came across as town with his in your face attitude earlier, since day post he seems to have taken it overboard though. Now to not skim read a million pages, sigh. ##vote sentinel Night 2 (day 2 doesnt exist yo!): The other thing I found suspicious as other have also found is that Barundar openly said that because of his name being thrown into discussion, he'll just simply contribute less rather than convince town that he is (maybe) town. On May 21 2012 17:00 Barundar wrote: I see my name getting thrown around a lot without any reasons, and quite frankly it makes me less likely to contribute. I didn't take a hit last night (and why would they hit me), but hey maybe the last mafia will be nice and tell us who the sk is when we get him. The end. | ||
|
risk.nuke
Sweden2825 Posts
Palmar early on you thought zepphird was town. Do you still feel that way and why? And who do you think is most likely the last scum and do you have any guess to who is the SK? Sandroba, Mattchew & Qatol: Same questions. And someone knows when the deadline is. I thought it was last night. | ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
| ||
|
Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
On May 21 2012 21:32 risk.nuke wrote: I'm interested in how Barundar plan to contribute less then he already is. Palmar early on you thought zepphird was town. Do you still feel that way and why? And who do you think is most likely the last scum and do you have any guess to who is the SK? Sandroba, Mattchew & Qatol: Same questions. And someone knows when the deadline is. I thought it was last night. Do you think Zepphird faked that "wtf" and "ninjaed by GM" thing around mattchew's shot on deconduo? It seems to me he wouldn't have risked posting that "wtf" if he was scum. I haven't formed my opinion on the last scum. Sandroba is a possible candidate though, cause I know he's not very hands on when he plays scum, and well... if there is a proper vet in that scum team he's not giving a shit what his team is doing cause they're just being bad. I don't know how to hunt SKs... I've never known that. I guess we have plenty of time to figure out, | ||
|
Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
| ||
|
marvellosity
United Kingdom36161 Posts
On May 21 2012 21:42 Palmar wrote: Toad is another possibility, something about the way he posted day 1 makes him kinda scummy. There remains the fact that Toad claimed VT -> mason pick. Not sure how convincing this is, but it should be a plus point for him. Although I didn't buy in to Qatol's "helped confirmed marv's claim when he desperately needed it" - actually I was under pretty much zero suspicion and people were believing my claim anyway. | ||
|
Palmar
Iceland22633 Posts
didn't toad claim it after you claimed mason? Or did he do it beforeþ | ||
| ||
